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22-May-2014 13:52

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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After spending months to promote your favourite stock, till now hopeless in freight rate recovery, effect of cost cutting, contribution of new vessels delivery and etcs, you eventually link this to political issue. Is it so related???

The military contract were awarded to Maersk and APL. Maersk was having bigger value contract. This was an open bidding contract, who know what is the margin of the contract, especially we can' t see any improvement in NOL margin after signing the contract.

NOL shall be thankful to all guys those holding their share and thinking Temasek will back NOL all the way. This is the only reason to support NOL @ 1 dollar after 3 years continually loss (4th year is coming). Top 3 container lines are earning money, market consolidation is required, just to see which company will run out of bullets first.

Again, don' t look down on the cash burnt rate 375million, burnt off in past 3 month times.

According to the 2011 to 2013 cash report, 1.4billion, 1 & 1.3billion cash are used for property, plant and equipment payment. Total of 24 vessels are delivered in 2012 and 2013, there are still 10 vessels will be delivered in 2014. The final payment during vessel delivery and settlement are the most. Let' s see how this 600million cash can do for the payment of the vessel. Hopefully, we won' t hear any default payment. Otherwise, it will be an earthquake to NOL and may be Temasek rescue plan may come in. BUT WHAT WILL BE THE VALUE OF THE SHARE PRICE AT THAT TIME???

sgng123 ( Date: 22-May-2014 13:27) Posted:

Look like all not really understand the truth value of NOL, this company is like a miilitary institution. Do u shut down SAF cos it burn money every year without proper account of the expense it occurs ?. NOL is a tie up between singapore and american business interest in trade. Having a independent carrier line to transport export is critical for both countries as they don want to be controlled by the top 3 lines which can easily raise rate as and when they feel like it. IT is more like both governments are supporting their countries exporter to a certain extent by offering below market rate so they can survive in bad time. Plus APL got ties to the US miltary where billions dollars of cargo contract are given to APL, need security clearance to be able to deliver US miltary cargo so not everyone can do it. Now time bad and everyone just got scared and shaken badly, it is similar when time are good everyone become uber bullish and keep pushing share to record high until the party ended. For ship it is no limited to the upside, it can go higher higher and higher no cap but when it go down government would step in and fix a floor due to the importance of it being trade related. IT simple endure long enough u made big buck, cannot endure u lose big time. So which type of investors are u ?

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 11:25) Posted:

Noble Olam Ezra NOL Indoagri, Straits Asia, Genting,

another thing that you cannot put NOL in line among these bluechips is because unreasonable confident built in from Temasek holding. The rest all are not built in with this confident, they could be undervalued when bad new come and when go low will be good time to buy in.

I just think that NOL has built in too much confident from Temasek holding and privatised, The bankrupcy risk is very high and it has met the SGX delisted rules which making loss for 3 years continually.

There are too many risk on NOL, with so much risks, NOL is overvalued. if it break down to 50 cents or even lower, may be worth to consider.

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22-May-2014 13:01

Gallant Venture / batam is a crown jews for gallant

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Next round loh. just be patient and wait loh. So serious meh

TuaPekGong9413 ( Date: 22-May-2014 13:00) Posted:

4hrs more to 40, birdie......yr smartass analysis

earlybird14 ( Date: 21-May-2014 14:54) Posted:

tomorrow break up and move to 40!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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22-May-2014 11:25

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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jj7007 ( Date: 22-May-2014 11:17) Posted:

Its not foresight my friend, its just simple logic and balls of steel. Makes sense for me to buy back these stocks at 1/3-1/2 price from where I sold in 2010. While I don't dispute your explanation, and commend your homework done, I feel this is why the counter is 98c and not $2 or hallway of its high. I believe alot of negativity like what u stated is priced in, everyone knows it but the price is supported here. The only thing that can see a massive sell off is the improvement of losses derailed majorly. When shortist cover their tracks, its scary! Olam is an example, and same for smrt. At the same time, u may not be vested and also not a supporter but respect other bros who put their hard earn $ here. Rising tide lifts all ships. No one is so clever to stock pick

earlybird14 ( Date: 22-May-2014 11:01) Posted:

Noble Olam Ezra NOL Indoagri, Straits Asia, Genting,

I salute your insight in buy low sell high skill. However, NOL shall not be put at the same line as these bluechips. NOL had made 3 continual year loss since 2011. 1Q in 2014 still making loss after receiving new vessels. Total loss in past 3 years are accummulated close to US 1 billion.

in 2011, cash burnt till left 200 million, notes are issued for raising fund for new vessels. Vessels are delivered progressively, average of 200to 400 millions are paid for the new vessles each quarters since 2013.

No new cash injected, no making money since 3 years time, vessels are delivered continually and payment must be made.

Don' t look down the cash burnt, although it may look nothing to you.

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22-May-2014 11:01

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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jj7007 ( Date: 22-May-2014 00:22) Posted:

My last trade with this counter was in 2009 2010 iirc.I missed the first run up, and when it drop a little, I went in at 1.50+ and held a while and sold 2.20 plus in that crazy one week.

So it make sense to me to buy back at $1.

I may sound bullish, but I have a good term view of these counters. I' m not here to hold and make just 10 bids every trade, and end up paying more losses than gains. Many stocks I talk about I seem very bullish maybe, but only because I buy them cheap before and sold them high in 2010. Noble Olam Ezra NOL Indoagri, Straits Asia, Genting, they were all trading like 2-3 times more when I sold it in 2010 compared to the price when I bought back in August.

Some counters can trade, BUT NOL at this moment is for holding. Just like SMRT, you look short term and you may have sold of at 1.10 when it chiong up and you miss the boat already! Today it' s 1.40+, and I' m pissed I totally missed that counter haha.

sgng123 ( Date: 22-May-2014 00:05) Posted:

hardcore bull bro, NOL is just like that it would start to shit off lot of new investors who try to make fast money. Think it is cheaper, it go lower. Think the stock is doomed then it spring back to life with a vengence. I see before lot of time NOL spring back from the graveyard price of 0.50 - 0.80 that is like 10+ years ago, 911 and internet bust year are the worst, but when ship start it move it is very fast can recoup back it 3 years of decline in a matter of weeks or even days if the BB all came charging back. NOL free float share is actually very very few, 67% controlled by temasek, another 25+ controlled by brokerage houses not much for retail players to scoup up when it is charging. IT is very exciting to see NOL charging especially during 2006 when temasek fail in it privatisation bid, shit ship charged from 2.30 all the way to 5.00 in matter of weeks lol. i was making small trade there but laughing mine way to the small gain of hundred of dollar gain every day.

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22-May-2014 10:07

Gallant Venture / batam is a crown jews for gallant

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Tuapekgong give me money leh.

TuaPekGong9413 ( Date: 22-May-2014 09:24) Posted:

Ruppee or rupiah? Mr birdie? U finally out of your nest and start telling stories....keep it up......

earlybird14 ( Date: 21-May-2014 14:54) Posted:

tomorrow break up and move to 40!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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21-May-2014 18:03

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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NOL cash burn from 980million to 605million in 3 month times!!!!!!!!!! which 375Million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

So, simple calculation, NOL only left 2 more quarters or 6 month time to declare bankrupt??????

All the best to you all 1 dollar!!!!!!

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21-May-2014 17:58

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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MAERSK LINE K.O. NOL again. USD 454million Profit VS USD 98Mliion Loss!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3GG91Y/2983347166x0x756602/85af9264-9896-48b4-92af-7cdbf5b34305/Maersk%20presentation%20Q1%202014.pdf

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL%20Q1%202014%20Financial%20Results.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=296951

Maersk line are not going to be mercy to all the competitors who are still making loss including NOL. Present freight rate is enough for them to make billion dollar profit per year and seeing their competitors like NOL going to bankrupt and reduce the competition in container shipping market.

NOL investors are still dreaming, your nighmare will never be end!!!!!!!!

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21-May-2014 14:54

Gallant Venture / batam is a crown jews for gallant

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tomorrow break up and move to 40!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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21-May-2014 14:10

Gallant Venture / batam is a crown jews for gallant

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In 2000, Jardine C& C only worth 3 to 4 dollars. Since acquisition of Atlas International in indonesia, share price boom to above 40 to 60 dollars, grow with indonesia economic.

Gallant venture will be next Jardine C& C !!!!! boom with indonesia after 2014 indonesia election!!!!!!!! TP 70cents minimum!!!!!!!!!

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21-May-2014 11:42

Gallant Venture / batam is a crown jews for gallant

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Good insight. Someone eyes got stamp and will only follow to buy above 70cents

think2profit ( Date: 17-May-2014 11:19) Posted:

After watching what happened to Chemoil and Stats ChipP, I am quite convinced that same thing will happen to Gallant Venture with now 95% held by top 20 shareholders.

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21-May-2014 11:37

Gallant Venture / batam is a crown jews for gallant

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Patient is required for Gallant Venture. TP 70cents!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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21-May-2014 11:31

Gallant Venture / batam is a crown jews for gallant

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TP 70cents soon. just patiently waiting. SGX market is dead, more patient is required. Jardine C& C has slowly climbed up to 45.

Reason 1: car sales increase, Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia and Honda Mobilio (belong to Atlas, Jardine C& C) volume drop, overall sales are up, which brands are up? of course Suzuki and European Car which are owned by Indomobil, Gallant Venture!!!!

http://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/todays-headlines/indonesian-car-sales-in-april-2014-supported-by-low-cost-green-cars/item2009

Reason 2: Currency Appreciation, Rupiah Appreciate since begin 2014 which is against other asian currency which means market is positive to Indonesia economic growth

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD& to=IDR

Reason 3: Election progress smooth confort all investors confident especially riots happen in Thailand and Vietnam. Compared to Myammar, Indonesia is more mature and better place to do business with.

Don' t miss the most undervalued indonesia stock, GALLANT VENTURE WHICH IS HOLD BY SALIM GROUP!!!!!!!!!!

TuaPekGong9413 ( Date: 21-May-2014 11:12) Posted:

Guess earlybird14 will announce TP again soon......

earlybird14 ( Date: 12-Feb-2014 11:28) Posted:

Gallant TP 70cents!!!!!!!!!!!

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02-Mar-2014 18:24

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Bear in mind, Maesrk, CMA and MSC were operating with huge profit in 2013. No hiking rate plan for Maersk so far, and previous plan for rate hinking are not going to work anymore in this overcapacity market.

Time to wipe out weak players.

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02-Mar-2014 18:20

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Based on performance in 2013 which the 400 cost saving in place and half of the 10,000TEU vessels were in operation, better hiking freight rate in 2013, there are zero chance for NOL to turn profitable in 2014.

Q4 2013 was a good indicator which NOL made loss of 135million dollar. Q1 2014 operation environment didn't improve at all http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/scfi.jsp freight rate index drop 5.3% last week. It will drop further due to giant vessel delivery, just NOL , 10x 10,000TEU container vessels will be delivered, China slow down, no chance filling the oversupply gap.

Blanchard ( Date: 02-Mar-2014 14:54) Posted:

Can NOL turn profitable this financial year???

Lucky03 ( Date: 01-Mar-2014 10:35) Posted:

Anybody has a copy of the latest issue of latest The EDGE Weekend issue 615 ? They have an article on NOL. Perhaps can help to post the contents or a summary of it here.

Too big to sail?
NOL has lowered its costs significantly with a shift to larger, more efficient vessels. But that has also pushed its gearing up. Should investors be nervous?

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28-Feb-2014 12:04

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL_FY2013_Financial_Results.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=275361

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL_FY2010_Financial.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=60765

Spend a bit on time on the balance sheet on page 2 and look at the non-current asset - Property, plant and equipment which is increase from 3.6 billion to 6.1 billion in 3 year times. 2,5 Billion of increase in assets? After selling headquarter office of 380 million, where this 2.5billion increase coming from? the vessels?

We all know Korea, China Shipyards are lacking of orders and steel price are low, you can use 70 to 80% of price in 2010 to build the same type of vessel now and can be delivered in less than 2 year times. Those new vessels are not worth this amount and overpriced!

Looking at total liability also increase from 3.2 billion to 6.9billion. 3.7Billion increase!!! The debt is real, it is not like the assets which you can be manipulated and over priced or under priced.

Holding NOL now, you must be mad!!!

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28-Feb-2014 11:48

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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When NOL was 0.865 at 11/3/09. Sembcorp Marine was 1.39, keppel was 3.65. The whole world thought it was an end of global trading due to US debt crisis. All marine, shipping and oil & gas related stock dropped badly.

That time NOL was financial strong with huge profit in past few years. After a 700million of huge loss in 2009, NOL was back on track with a 400million huge profit in 2010.

What happen after 2010? 3 years continual loss accumulate 1.3Billion of loss. Procured a series of 10,000 TEU container vessels and taking 1.5billion of Senior note with 4.4% interest.

It is alright for a company having high debt for expansion so long as the expanded business can bring in sufficient profit for loan repayment. However what happen on NOL is high debt and the new vessels can't bring her back on track.

ascend88 ( Date: 28-Feb-2014 11:28) Posted:

0.865....NOL was at....11/3/09.....at that time....the world...was almost coming to an " end" ....financially

and NOL call for rights issue in 2 Jun 2009 that same yr.....and the share price was at 1.68$...(Rights OFFER OF 3 FOR 4 @ SGD 1.3)

and the company was also in operation loss....

abit of history....

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28-Feb-2014 08:47

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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It imply their past 3 years structural plan is totally a failure. Start to restructure again? Too late, NOL has no time and money to afford this round of restructure.

Peter_Pan ( Date: 28-Feb-2014 07:38) Posted:

Loss making NOL skirts close to SGX watch-list

Singapore: Singapore?s top shipping line, Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), suffered the ignominy yesterday of announcing it has come close to being placed on a watch-list by the Singapore Exchange (SGX) as it has recorded pre-tax losses for three consecutive financial years. Only NOL's market capitilisation is keeping it off the embarrassing list, according to SGX rulings.

NOL, which runs containerline APL, has recently tried to shake things up organisationally to get it out of its financial lull. The new setup, announced last month, will move APL from a geographically-organised structure to a functional one, in the areas of trade, commercial, operations, procurement and planning and strategy.

APL president president Kenneth Glenn explained last month the rationale for the new set up. ?We are pushing ahead with our strategy to sharpen our competitive edge through cost efficiency and organisational agility,? he said. [26/02/14]

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28-Feb-2014 06:57

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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Those stock down more than 10% were going through a big rally in past 2 years.

NOL didn't follow the rise trend but facing risk of dilution, continual big loss, payment of vessel delivery and risk of debt default.

NOL demand a cash injection. If Temasek decide to inject fund to help， minimum 1 to 1 right issue is required to raise 2 billion dollar of cash for the payment of vessel delivery, debt and expected continual loss at least another 2 years.

Are you ready for the dilution?

banana ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 22:48) Posted:

I've seen ur thread in gallant and China fish.. U don't know what u r talking. U r just taking this opportunity to attack this thread to create fear without justification. If I'm a shortist, I will publish all financials in all medias.. Don't forget more than 10% of stocks here r below..further 10%? Then still 1500 pts?..u not staying in Singapore anymore? .. Think deeper

earlybird14 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 22:25) Posted:

Now is neither 911, Asian financial crisis nor 2008 US debt crisis.

It is oversupply and operating structure change. Weak company has to be wipe out.

If any crisis come, it will accelerate the wipe out. NOL is too high debt, operating condition is bad. Downtrend is confirmed. Worst is not coming yet

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28-Feb-2014 06:50

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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http://www.alphaliner.com/top100/

Look at the order book. It is 10 to 90% of existing ship. Global GDP average is merely 2 to 3%. Overcapacity will last at least another 3 to 4 years.

Maesrk, MSC and CMA balance is green, anytime can add more vessels since they have the most efficient operating structure.

Long term for solving problem is to burn off other players and reduce the competitiveness instead of waiting market recovery.

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28-Feb-2014 06:40

Neptune Orient L Rg / NOL

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1.5 billion dollar profit VS 295million loss.

NOL use out all bullets for survive.

Market recovery is not possible since big players are profitable.

Time for market consolidation, weak players will be wipe out. NOL is top of the list.

Lucky03 ( Date: 28-Feb-2014 00:52) Posted:

Maersk Line books $1.5bn profit in 2013, despite lower rates

By Marcus Hand
from Singapore

AP Moller Maersk reported a 6% slide in group profits to $3.77bn in 2013, but its container line Maersk Line improved profitability in a tough market.

The Danish shipping and energy giant reported a profit of $3.77bn in 2013 compared to $4.04bn a year earlier. However, the 2012 result benefited from the one-off positive impact of Maersk Oil?s $899m settlement of an Alergian tax dispute.

Revenues were also 4% lower at $47.39bn in 2013 compared to $49.49 in the previous year.

?Maersk Line strengthened profitability despite challenging shipping markets and both APM Terminals and Maersk Drilling had their best result to date,? said Nils Andersen, group ceo of AP Moller Maersk.

Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1%.

APM Terminals also reported an increased profit of $770m in 2013 compared to $701m in the previous year. The number of containers handled increased by 3% to 36.3m teu.

A full utilisation of its rig fleet drove Maersk Drilling to a historic high result of $528m compared to $347m in 2012. During 2013 Maersk Drilling secured contracts for six out of eight newbuildings to be delivered in 2014 ? 2016.

Maersk Tankers, however, booked annual loss of $317m, almost the same as the $315m loss in 2012. The result was impacted by impairment losses and provisions, as well as restructuring costs.

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