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NOL
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earlybird14
Supreme |
28-Feb-2014 12:04
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http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL_FY2013_Financial_Results.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=275361 http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL_FY2010_Financial.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=60765 Spend a bit on time on the balance sheet on page 2 and look at the non-current asset - Property, plant and equipment which is increase from 3.6 billion to 6.1 billion in 3 year times. 2,5 Billion of increase in assets? After selling headquarter office of 380 million, where this 2.5billion increase coming from? the vessels? We all know Korea, China Shipyards are lacking of orders and steel price are low, you can use 70 to 80% of price in 2010 to build the same type of vessel now and can be delivered in less than 2 year times. Those new vessels are not worth this amount and overpriced! Looking at total liability also increase from 3.2 billion to 6.9billion. 3.7Billion increase!!! The debt is real, it is not like the assets which you can be manipulated and over priced or under priced. Holding NOL now, you must be mad!!! |
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earlybird14
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28-Feb-2014 11:48
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When NOL was 0.865 at 11/3/09. Sembcorp Marine was 1.39, keppel was 3.65. The whole world thought it was an end of global trading due to US debt crisis. All marine, shipping and oil & gas related stock dropped badly. That time NOL was financial strong with huge profit in past few years. After a 700million of huge loss in 2009, NOL was back on track with a 400million huge profit in 2010. What happen after 2010? 3 years continual loss accumulate 1.3Billion of loss. Procured a series of 10,000 TEU container vessels and taking 1.5billion of Senior note with 4.4% interest. It is alright for a company having high debt for expansion so long as the expanded business can bring in sufficient profit for loan repayment. However what happen on NOL is high debt and the new vessels can't bring her back on track.
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ascend88
Master |
28-Feb-2014 11:28
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0.865....NOL was at....11/3/09.....at that time....the world...was almost coming to an " end" ....financially and NOL call for rights issue in 2 Jun 2009 that same yr.....and the share price was at 1.68$...(Rights OFFER OF 3 FOR 4 @ SGD 1.3) and the company was also in operation loss.... abit of history.... |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
28-Feb-2014 08:47
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It imply their past 3 years structural plan is totally a failure. Start to restructure again? Too late, NOL has no time and money to afford this round of restructure.
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spore1
Supreme |
28-Feb-2014 08:00
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think can consider to accumulate from 90 cents and below
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
28-Feb-2014 07:38
Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!" |
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Loss making NOL skirts close to SGX watch-list
Singapore: Singapore?s top shipping line, Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), suffered the ignominy yesterday of announcing it has come close to being placed on a watch-list by the Singapore Exchange (SGX) as it has recorded pre-tax losses for three consecutive financial years. Only NOL's market capitilisation is keeping it off the embarrassing list, according to SGX rulings. NOL, which runs containerline APL, has recently tried to shake things up organisationally to get it out of its financial lull. The new setup, announced last month, will move APL from a geographically-organised structure to a functional one, in the areas of trade, commercial, operations, procurement and planning and strategy. APL president president Kenneth Glenn explained last month the rationale for the new set up. ?We are pushing ahead with our strategy to sharpen our competitive edge through cost efficiency and organisational agility,? he said. [26/02/14] |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
28-Feb-2014 06:57
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Those stock down more than 10% were going through a big rally in past 2 years.
NOL didn't follow the rise trend but facing risk of dilution, continual big loss, payment of vessel delivery and risk of debt default. NOL demand a cash injection. If Temasek decide to inject fund to help， minimum 1 to 1 right issue is required to raise 2 billion dollar of cash for the payment of vessel delivery, debt and expected continual loss at least another 2 years. Are you ready for the dilution?
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earlybird14
Supreme |
28-Feb-2014 06:50
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http://www.alphaliner.com/top100/
Look at the order book. It is 10 to 90% of existing ship. Global GDP average is merely 2 to 3%. Overcapacity will last at least another 3 to 4 years. Maesrk, MSC and CMA balance is green, anytime can add more vessels since they have the most efficient operating structure. Long term for solving problem is to burn off other players and reduce the competitiveness instead of waiting market recovery. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
28-Feb-2014 06:40
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1.5 billion dollar profit VS 295million loss.
NOL use out all bullets for survive. Market recovery is not possible since big players are profitable. Time for market consolidation, weak players will be wipe out. NOL is top of the list.
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 02:44
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Just checked SGX as at 28 Feb, there are 3111 lots available to lend to shortists.
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 02:43
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Just checked SGX as at 28 Feb, there are 3111 lots available to lend to shortists.
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 02:25
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Can access the report at https://14c1ada0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/researchreport99/GoldmanSachs_NOL27022014.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7cr5TZ_7xHkyyyauUuUSy7StDjuIoAmqTPBJU6_MDH1xLhE8RSMLTT1SmLyTYyOjV19kgHndR3UkXsxsNRlBKTk6bt2fBIyASgBNmdu4qQiO-WwimqKrnwh-bvHjnA5XUsTp2ewx7niQOGmFddykq66qJxqdxQJ2HQQsPhmSqLUIkla_9na3-Hab4BQiVgHC9sq82hev0ZO6TE7VlbhJaRCr1mdGjzPlbEhNuQjiNxRFNkwog_4%3D&attredirects=1
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 02:20
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http://singaporestockmarketnews.blogspot.com/2014/02/neptune-orient-lines-ndr-takeaways-cost.html?m=1
Singapore Stock Market News A platform to share Singapore Stock Market & Regional News THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2014 Neptune Orient Lines - NDR takeaways: Cost savings the focus eyes on TP contract rates News We hosted a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) in Singapore this week. Key topics discussed in the meetings included NOL's cost saving initiatives, its balance sheet gearing and repayment schedule as well as the container industry outlook. Analysis Our key takeaways include: 1. Balance sheet gearing to peak in 2014: NOL expects lower capex for 2014 of below US$1bn and its gearing ratio to peak this year its optimal mid- to long-term focused debt profile means the next major repayment deck will not be until 2017. 2. Eyes on the 14th Trans-Pacific Maritime (TPM) conference next week as indicators for the direction of this year's contract rate negotiations: NOL has c.70% contract exposure on the Transpacific trade lane, higher than the industry average. 3. Narrowing supply-demand gap in 2014 cost savings are key: The company will continue to emphasize cost savings in 2014 via introduction of new larger vessels (most of its 10 scheduled deliveries for 2014 will take place in 1H), returning of high-cost chartered vessels and improving efficiency through the re-aligned functional-focused liner structure (from geographically-focused) and the expanded G6 alliance. 4. Logistics to continue be a bright spot, where the company has an aim to grow this business to over 30% of group revenues over the mid to long term (from current 18%) Technical Analysis Daily Chart Implications Our rating, estimates and target price remain unchanged. (Read Report) Source : Goldman Sachs Equity Research |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 02:07
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According to SGX, the shortlsts are very active yeaterday, shorted 1647 lots, more than 3-4 times ave volume. This will eventually lead to short covering. It will be a volatile ride ahead as trading tempo picks up and the price can swing either way. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 01:10
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Mark its last para. Certainly one of the more optimistic forward guidance. In fact, beginning to read more of such remark.
Pacific Basin turns around to $1.5m profit for 2013 By Vincent Wee from Hong Kong Pacific Basin Shipping is well on its way back up turning around in 2013 to a small $1.5m net profit from a $158.5m loss the year before despite a weak market. Revenue rose to $1.7bn from $1.4bn previously as the smaller vessel dry bulk shipping specialist also embarked on a well-timed acquisition programme and ridded itself of the drag from the ill-fated roro business on its performance from the past. Presenting its "respectable results" in a weak market, Pacific Basin said it had outperformed the handysize market by 22% through good control over vessel costs amid the weakest half-year dry bulk market since 1986. "Dry bulk shipping in the first half of 2013 experienced its weakest market conditions since 1986, while the second half was characterised by encouraging early signs of a cyclical upturn with increased rate volatility. The weak and challenging market overall continued to test the financial health and performance of bulk carrier owners and operators globally," chairman David Turnbull said in an announcement. "We have again generated respectable results as we have done throughout the down-cycle of the past several years thanks to our cargo and customer-focused business model and our team of talented staff," he added. Looking ahead the company said it believed the cyclical upturn has started and the dry bulk market is expected to be stronger but also volatile in 2014. It also remains "selectively open to appropriately priced ship acquisitions to further position ourselves for a stronger market" while pointing out the slowdown in offshore towage contracts which make the outlook for the towage market more challenging. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 00:58
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The lesson to learn from Maersk is that the low freight rate may be here to stay and it can still be possible to be profitable and it just have to be very lean and super efficient and extremely cost effective throughout the value chain. NOL is trying to do similar but the challenge is the speed and execution. Market is apparently very impatient now. Telling everyone that they may be put on the Watchlist is the worst PR if they do not issue any further updates of their plan to improve the financial results. They should call for analyst briefing to share more with the investing community. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 00:52
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Maersk Line books $1.5bn profit in 2013, despite lower rates By Marcus Hand from Singapore AP Moller Maersk reported a 6% slide in group profits to $3.77bn in 2013, but its container line Maersk Line improved profitability in a tough market. The Danish shipping and energy giant reported a profit of $3.77bn in 2013 compared to $4.04bn a year earlier. However, the 2012 result benefited from the one-off positive impact of Maersk Oil?s $899m settlement of an Alergian tax dispute. Revenues were also 4% lower at $47.39bn in 2013 compared to $49.49 in the previous year. ?Maersk Line strengthened profitability despite challenging shipping markets and both APM Terminals and Maersk Drilling had their best result to date,? said Nils Andersen, group ceo of AP Moller Maersk. Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1%. APM Terminals also reported an increased profit of $770m in 2013 compared to $701m in the previous year. The number of containers handled increased by 3% to 36.3m teu. A full utilisation of its rig fleet drove Maersk Drilling to a historic high result of $528m compared to $347m in 2012. During 2013 Maersk Drilling secured contracts for six out of eight newbuildings to be delivered in 2014 ? 2016. Maersk Tankers, however, booked annual loss of $317m, almost the same as the $315m loss in 2012. The result was impacted by impairment losses and provisions, as well as restructuring costs. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 00:51
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Frontline 2012 in the black for 2013, upbeat on crude tankers By Charlie Bartlett from London John Fredriksen's Frontline 2012 has reported a $69.5m profit for 2013, after netting $12.5m in the fourth quarter. Frontline 2012 saw a dip in its tanker time charter equivalents in the spot and period market VLCCs averaged $22,300 in 2013, down from $27,800 in 2012 suezmax tankers were down to $14,200 compared with $15,300 for 2012. VLCC spot earnings were $19,200 in 2013, compared with $27,500 the year before, while suezmax tankers were at $14,200 compared with $15,300. However, looking ahead Frontline 2012 was more upbeat citing increased crude tanker rates and ?an improved balance in the crude tanker market? and hinted at its intention to take advantage of ?opportunities in the crude segment.? ?The company expects that the supply/demand balance will improve further? however this is a fine balance which can easily be changed by increased fleet supply caused by increased ballast speed, decrease in vessel scrapping and aggressive newbuilding ordering.? Meanwhile, the company invested $70.7m for 6m shares in Avance Gas Holdings (AGHL) in October, equivalent to 12.5% of the company, and subsequently sold it eight VLGCs for $8.8m in November. Frontline 2012 aims to complete an IPO of AGHL's shares in the US or Norway. Gains of $30.3m and $27m were recorded throughout the year following the cancellation of Frontline 2012?s second and third newbuilding contracts at Jinhaiwan. As of end December the company currently has 62 vessels on order as of 31 December 2013, including the eight sold to AHGL. The company also reported a net gain of $7.1m on the mark-to-market revaluation of interest rate swap agreements in the year ended 31 December 2013. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 00:49
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Different fates among the players but at least their forward guidance is slightly more optimistic than NOL !
By Bob Jaques from London Frontline Ltd, a separate company to hived-off unit Frontline 2012, posted a net loss attributable to the company of $188.5m for full year 2013, compared to a net loss of $82.7m in 2012, reflecting the highly depressed state of the tanker market in the first half of last year. Results progressively improved as the year wore on, however, with attributable net losses decreasing to $36.4m in Q3 and $13.0m in Q4. The average daily TCEs earned by the company?s VLCC and Suezmax tankers in the spot and period market for the full year were $17,400 and $13,400 respectively, compared with $22,200 and $15,000 in 2012. But in Q4 2013 the VLCC earnings rallied to $22,400, while Suezmaxes remained slightly below par at $12,900. ?The recent increase in rates which began in the second half of last year is a sign of an improved balance in the tanker market,? Frontline said in its results statement, ?and the company expects that the supply/demand balance will improve further.? However, it warned that ?this is a fine balance which can easily be changed by increased fleet supply caused by increased ballast speed, decrease in vessel scrapping and aggressive newbuilding ordering.? |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Feb-2014 00:37
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Yep. They are the last we should trust these days. When you look at the team of analysts, they are getting younger and it is not possible they have many good years of practical experience or business exposure to make sound judgement. Most of the times, they ended up herd mentality and monkey see, monkey do. Likewise, when UOBKH suggested shorting, they may also be looking to pick up some at bargain price to 'reap' very impressive gain when they started upgrading their call by citing all sorts of reasons that some are saying in this forum. True or otherwise. Nobody can fault them !
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