ShareJunction - Member Posts

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Just bear in mind NOL has received almost all the vessels for own operation in 2013. Majority of vessels received in 2014 will be chartered to MOL which mean NOL become charterer but bear the debt and earn daily rate.

Therefore, last quarter result is justifiable for the performance of the rest of the quarter (which i think, may be no right). You also can refer to 2012 result to see how much cost cutting NOL said they achieved. Then, see again how much cost cutting NOL said they achieved in 2013. If add on the total cost cutting for last 2 years they achived, 20141Q shall be as profit as Maersk. But fact is still making loss. Can you really believe their cost cutting plan and their management the fact they delivered to the market?

CSM CEO also wanted to make profit, I deeply believed so. But he failed, no his fault, it is the structural of the market. Now Global Foundry took over, may be better, we don' t know. Compared to others, Risk on NOL is high, since you believe NOL can turnaround, at the same time, you are taking the risk of turning worse.

All the best to you.

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Frankly speaking, I hope I am wrong. I have no position, not short no long. May be holders here don' t believe. Again, I had been followed up closely with NOL since downturn 2011 and did my own research and in and out few times to earn small amount profit from NOL. The cost cutting in 2012 and 2013 disappointed me and made me realised that it is difficult to implement the plan across NOL based on the amount of cost cutting is not justifiable with the amount of loss they had made. I KIV NOL since last year and no trading it. But somebody keep posting positive and overoptimistic on NOL, which make me provide the other way view to KIV forummers here to judge themselve.

If NOL go well, it will benefit no only the shareholders but also those working in NOL. My office is in PSA Building. Seeing the NOL building is going to renovate and change name, I am quite sad actually. Anyway, all the best to you. Result will be out this week and picture will be clearer to holders or KIVs. Let' s hope NOL can do well and survive.

counter ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 10:11) Posted:

Revenue is a function of price and quantity. A fall in price is problematic if the proportionate fall is greater the the proportionate increase in the quantity as this will result in a fall in revenue. However, recent data in the shipping industry have shown that the proportionate increase in the volume is greater than the proportionate decrease in the freight charge and this explains why many shipping companies are experiencing an increase in revenue.

Your previous posts have virtually ignored the part on rising volume and I glad that you are finally taking it into consideration. Given the greater proportionate increase in the volume, an omission of this fact is unlikely to give interested parties a good picture of the shipping industry.

Maersk is a good company. However, NOL does not need to be as good as Maersk to be profitable. Therefore, in my opinion, Maersk and for that matter, the top 3, is largely to the discussion here. The important question is whether NOL will turn profitable and therefore whether the price will rise from the current level. As an investor, this is what I am more interested in.

I agree with you said that given their liability condition, NOL may have difficulty in getting a second chance to restructure. However, it may turn out to be a blessing to the shareholders as it will make privatisation likely. You can refer to a post by bro lucky03 on privatisation and restructuring.

The coming quarter result is indeed a good indication of where NOL is heading. However, I do not see it as &lsquo The Judgement Day&rsquo . There is still a long road ahead. Life is full of unforeseen contingencies. Let us don&rsquo t presume that we can predict the future.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 08:54) Posted:

Shipping industry is negative in the sense of container freight rate. However the volume is increasing in past 3 years. This is why Maersk made billion dollar of profit. Volume is good but price is bad due to overcapacity. I have been focusing on pointing NOL operation instead of the the whole global shipping industry. I indicated that this is a structural change of this industry and this container freight rate will be continue and stay flat. Whoever cannot operate with positive profit margin, will be kicked off from the market or merged will other to look for a structural change. The market is required to be consolidated and NOL will be the one to be consolidate, just a matter of time.

Top 3 are a very successful example and they have no worry about the current low freight rate. They have been restructure their routes and schedule with their huge fleet and achieve profitable from the high volume low freight rate market. NOL has failed in last year and 1st quarter of this year. If coming quarter still show the same, it imply their business model and cost cutting cannot survive in current market. Their liability condition cannot allow to give them second chance to restructure unless Temasek really pump in billion dollar to restructure it and merge with other weak competitors. NOL is going to drop from top 8 to top 14 in next 2 year since she has no new container vessels to be delivered. So, they cannot duplicate what Top 3 are doing.

Coming quarter result is critical, not only the profit margin but also the cash flow.

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Global Container shipping volumes are growing since 2009 and 2013 volume is much higher than 2008 volume before crisis. However freight rate stay flat and Maersk earn billion dollar.

the freight rate is unlikely to go back to 2005 to 2007 level. Just touching 2006 level will trigger Maersk, MSC and CMA who are relatively financial strong to order more new vessels to deal with the demand and push down the freight rate.

Top3 have set bench mark for global container shipping players, this is the freight rate for all, survive or consolidated.

Anyway, this is the overall market trend. NOL has its own problem, MARGIN AND LIABILITIES!!!!

counter ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 08:39) Posted:

As the US economy and many others are picking up, the volume in the next 18 months is likely to be higher than that in the last 18 months.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 06:24) Posted:

agreed, no problem for the 'rest of the year'. Problem will happen in next 18 months, 600milout of 800mil is unsecured. The repayment of vessels are not fully repay. The huge one is coming. How critical for this quarter. After this quarter, cut down to 12 months

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Shipping industry is negative in the sense of container freight rate. However the volume is increasing in past 3 years. This is why Maersk made billion dollar of profit. Volume is good but price is bad due to overcapacity. I have been focusing on pointing NOL operation instead of the the whole global shipping industry. I indicated that this is a structural change of this industry and this container freight rate will be continue and stay flat. Whoever cannot operate with positive profit margin, will be kicked off from the market or merged will other to look for a structural change. The market is required to be consolidated and NOL will be the one to be consolidate, just a matter of time.

Top 3 are a very successful example and they have no worry about the current low freight rate. They have been restructure their routes and schedule with their huge fleet and achieve profitable from the high volume low freight rate market. NOL has failed in last year and 1st quarter of this year. If coming quarter still show the same, it imply their business model and cost cutting cannot survive in current market. Their liability condition cannot allow to give them second chance to restructure unless Temasek really pump in billion dollar to restructure it and merge with other weak competitors. NOL is going to drop from top 8 to top 14 in next 2 year since she has no new container vessels to be delivered. So, they cannot duplicate what Top 3 are doing.

Coming quarter result is critical, not only the profit margin but also the cash flow.

counter ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 08:32) Posted:

Your previous posts indicate that you have been very negative about the shipping industry. Sensing that it may have turned the corner from recent indicators, you are shifting your attack from the industry to the firm. If I were in your position, which fortunately I am not, I would probably adopt the same strategy.

You said that NOL was making a loss last year and hence it would not be able to turn profitable this year. It does take a genius to understand that this is navie thinking. A loss last year does not necessarily imply a loss in the 2nd quarter this year for 2 obvious reasons. The revenue is likely to be higher due to the higher volume and the costs are likely be lower. Let us do not ignore the fact that some container liners which were making a loss last year are starting to make profit this year.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 06:38) Posted:

There are no problem on shipping market. Global market growth trend is continue. Problem is on NOL. APL headquarter is in US. Long talking cost cutting doesn't really help NOL to turn profit. If NOL was really so successful in cost cutting as per their target which they mentioned they had cut. They should make profit in last year. However, their justification is not convincing at all. One of the main reason, the APL is not in Singapore. It is hard to push cost cutting plan effectively and efficiently.

Anyway, let see, result coming this week. I hope you all the best

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There are no problem on shipping market. Global market growth trend is continue. Problem is on NOL. APL headquarter is in US. Long talking cost cutting doesn't really help NOL to turn profit. If NOL was really so successful in cost cutting as per their target which they mentioned they had cut. They should make profit in last year. However, their justification is not convincing at all. One of the main reason, the APL is not in Singapore. It is hard to push cost cutting plan effectively and efficiently.

Anyway, let see, result coming this week. I hope you all the best.

earlybird14 ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 06:31) Posted:

3 years is not short. 3 years loss making is enough to drag a healthy company to difficult situation. Result is coming soon, loss, break even or profit. Nol has to be profitable to survive and repay their unsecured loan. 4th years loss imply a huge dilution is required for loan repayment and the start of CSM history.

sgng123 ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 01:34) Posted:

That the problem with u and earlybird both are extremely short sighted and few investment experience on ship trading judging on the comment both made. All ignor the big picture side of stuff and focus on ur own narrow view. World economy is recovering it is not we said that but lot of renowed economist saying and it is backedby solid US ISM/GDP/Job data. Recent August 1 GRi increase in transpacifc is big, 400+ in WC and 600+ in EC, Ec spot rate highest in SFCI history FYI. Spot rate pointed to increased cargo being carried therefore shown in increase in spot rate. However do not take this into account that freight rate for ship would increase as well as most of ship business is conducted through fixed rate contract. At most the peak season surcharge would applied in 3Q that all. The Key focus is still on the cost saving from having a more fuel efficency ships and better load factor from G6 alliance in transpacific. NOL fleet capacity dropped from 120 ships in 1Q to just 106 ships in 2Q as shown in NOL website, that represented roughly a 10-15% cut in total capacity. Assuming volume carried in 2Q is same YoY, it is almost a full load on ship to and for transpacifc. Again i am hand off this counter till we get a clearer picture, caution prevail but cautious optimistic.

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3 years is not short. 3 years loss making is enough to drag a healthy company to difficult situation. Result is coming soon, loss, break even or profit. Nol has to be profitable to survive and repay their unsecured loan. 4th years loss imply a huge dilution is required for loan repayment and the start of CSM history.

sgng123 ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 01:34) Posted:

That the problem with u and earlybird both are extremely short sighted and few investment experience on ship trading judging on the comment both made. All ignor the big picture side of stuff and focus on ur own narrow view. World economy is recovering it is not we said that but lot of renowed economist saying and it is backedby solid US ISM/GDP/Job data. Recent August 1 GRi increase in transpacifc is big, 400+ in WC and 600+ in EC, Ec spot rate highest in SFCI history FYI. Spot rate pointed to increased cargo being carried therefore shown in increase in spot rate. However do not take this into account that freight rate for ship would increase as well as most of ship business is conducted through fixed rate contract. At most the peak season surcharge would applied in 3Q that all. The Key focus is still on the cost saving from having a more fuel efficency ships and better load factor from G6 alliance in transpacific. NOL fleet capacity dropped from 120 ships in 1Q to just 106 ships in 2Q as shown in NOL website, that represented roughly a 10-15% cut in total capacity. Assuming volume carried in 2Q is same YoY, it is almost a full load on ship to and for transpacifc. Again i am hand off this counter till we get a clearer picture, caution prevail but cautious optimistic.

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agreed, no problem for the 'rest of the year'. Problem will happen in next 18 months, 600milout of 800mil is unsecured. The repayment of vessels are not fully repay. The huge one is coming. How critical for this quarter. After this quarter, cut down to 12 months.

Lucky03 ( Date: 03-Aug-2014 17:39) Posted:

Many including earlybird has grave concern with NOL cash flow and repayment of outstanding loans.

On 28 Jun, 2010, Neptune Orient Lines Limited (?NOL?) had established a US$1,500,000,000 Euro Medium Term Note Programme (the ?Programme?), under which NOL may issue notes (the ?Notes?) to refinance its purchase of the 32 ships and working capital. Thereafter it has issued a total of 4 notes with varying interest with the first $400m at 4.25% due in 2017. The other 3 are $300m 4.4% due 2019, $280m 4.65% due 2030 and $300m 4.4% due 2021.

Important for the short term is for NOL to be cash positive from operating activities. Given that its CFO updated at last Analysts Briefing after the release of Q1 result that it had largely made its payment for the new ships and not expecting significant outlay for the rest of the year, we should not see deteriorating cash position.

counter ( Date: 03-Aug-2014 14:01) Posted:

You have made a good point. This precisely the problem with earlybird's arguments which ignore developmental factors.

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Next week 3 years continual history will happen again. You have been saying the same thing for 3 years.

sgng123 ( Date: 02-Aug-2014 23:12) Posted:

How peep get all the bad omen for NOL when it main export market is recovering strongly, Dow Jones crosses 17K new record, US2Q GDP grow strongly at 4%, ISm data pointed to sustain growth, US job growth sustained at 200K for 6 months straight. All these macro data are pointing to a global recovering lead by US and very good for NOL business and with cargo volume growing at double digit in 2Q for transpacifc seen from the japanese liners and most recent August GRI success with port terminal in US reported healthy cargo volume. I just don get it how peep so pessimistic about NOL. 2M alliance by maesrk and msc most likely would be shoot down by china once they made the application for it and that would force them to raise freight rate to compensate for lower load factor on their new 18K ships scheduled to deliver in 2015. With established customer bases in transpacifc , NOl just need to get their operating cost down for sustained profitability.

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What if NOL cannot turn profitable this quarter, what will you do? especially, korea and japan line turn profitable.

Lucky03 ( Date: 01-Aug-2014 09:07) Posted:

We all know the low freight rate is the norm now. Whoever succeeds in restructuring and lowered cost significantly and where possible, restructured their debt too will turnaround.

Pan Ocean continues to improve earnings with $303m Q2 profit

By Lee Hong Liang from Singapore

South Korea?s Pan Ocean has continued to improve its financial position as it posted a net profit of $303.42m in the second quarter.

The second quarter profit was a reversal from the loss of $16.72m in the same period of last year, and a significant improvement from a profit of $34.35m in the first quarter of 2014.

Pan Ocean said in a brief statement that the continued profit status from the first quarter this year was a result of the changeover to lower cost structure and performance of rehabilitation plan through the ongoing restructuring process.

Pan Ocean, formerly known as STX Pan Ocean, underwent a debt-to-equity rescue deal involving $1.17bn in unsecured debts. The deal has allowed the shipowner to reduce its assets and liabilities so as to continue its operations.

Last month, Pan Ocean ordered two capesize bulk carriers at a total price of KRW114.88bn ($112.83m), with deliveries scheduled by 30 November 2016.

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Holders tend to post positive news to convince themselves the share that they purchase will be up. I fully understand and also be positive on what I vested.

For nol, may be as what you say, I still keep some hope on this company. However, I still choose to kiv on this company.

Those things that I pointed are what I see, digest and point my own view. Current price is still no worth for taking the risk to buy since the trend of recovering is not there in next at least 1 year time. Risk of cash flow is alarming.

counter ( Date: 31-Jul-2014 21:40) Posted:

I hope that Temasek will dish out a similar strategy for NOL and this is likely if the NOL ship does not turn the corner over the next two to three quarter as the iceberg is not many quarters away. In event that this happens, NOL will be one of my most profitable investments :)

Frankly, I do not think that earlybird is as pessimistic about NOL as he sounds. If he was, he would have built up a short position but according to him, he is not invested, and I have take as the truth as there is no way to verify. This is assuming that he is rational and has a reasonable size of stomach for risk.

He is probably trying to see if his words can shake confidence which may allow him to pick up some ' durians' . Although he knows that he has little chance of success, these words do not cost him anything financially.

Besides, he is so predictable about his reply to my question on rights issue ^_^

Lucky03 ( Date: 31-Jul-2014 20:40) Posted:

Based on the extreme pessimism of earlybird painting of the future of NOL, then we may see 'similar plan' being dished out by Tamesek as for MAS by its major shareholder Khazanah Nasional ....

PUBLISHED JULY 31, 2014
M'sia Airlines touching down for a delisting
Khazanah expected to take ailing carrier private and relist it within four years

BYANITA GABRIEL
anitag@sph.com.sg @AnitaGabrielBT

Under intense pressure and an unforgiving timeline to whip up a revival plan for tragedy-struck Malaysia Airlines (MAS), Khazanah Nasional, majority owner of the national carrier, is expected to submit a broad plan to take the airline private to Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak next week.

[SINGAPORE] Under intense pressure and an unforgiving timeline to whip up a revival plan for tragedy-struck Malaysia Airlines (MAS), Khazanah Nasional, majority owner of the national carrier, is expected to submit a broad plan to take the airline private to Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak next week.
The plan, pieced together with adviser CIMB Group after the airline was hit by a second disaster in quick succession with the downing of flight MH17 over Ukraine, also involves an overhaul of the airline's top management, The Business Times understands.
That MAS would file for bankruptcy, as widely speculated, can be ruled out. A rebranding exercise which could involve a renaming is being contemplated but that may come later as the architects of the airline's revamp, for now at least, are intent on a more substantive overhaul.
"It will be a total end-to-end restructure where every aspect of the business will be looked at - route streamlining, fleet resizing and people streamlining. MAS can't do bits and pieces of restructuring anymore like in the past. This will be a classic, traditional restructuring," said a source close to the plan.

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Private placement for business expansion, fund use for further investment to increase revenue and profit.

Right issue like NOL, fund use for paying the debt or the loss like what they did for headquarter sales,400million all gone. NOL stated the money was used for paying new vessels. But Question!, where the money coming from for the 1 Billion loss in past few years? If right issue is materialise, the fund will go to the debt and may be the continual loss in next 2 to 3 years.

For this type of right issue, will it has positive affection?

Furthermore, the price for right issue is set at lower discounted price as compared to market trading price to attract the existing holders to exercise their right to subscribe the new share. After the subscription, the market trading price will be depressed. So long as market tradin price higher than the discounted subscription price, it will attract the existing holders to sell the share with profit since majority are forced to subscribe to prevent their shareholding being diluted, slight profit will encourage them to cash out or even throw all their holding to achieve breakeven.

NOL daily trading volume is merely 1800k which is only 0.07% of outstanding share, for the market to digest these portion of holders may take very long time. Especially, in this uncertain environment for NOL, how long will all existing holders trap below current price is unknown too. it may be 2 years, 3 years or even longer. Will dilution come again and again like Chartered Semicon till Temasek also cannot tolerate and sold it away with big loss?

I am talking the worst situation, it may not be happen but compare to other shares in SGX, NOL is the one holding the highest chance to repeat the history of Chartered Semi Con.

counter ( Date: 31-Jul-2014 08:29) Posted:

In the event of rights issue, as the number of shares will increase, the value of assets will also rise due to the cash raised. As the rights will only be issued to the existing shareholders, it what ways will they be adversely affected?

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Export purpose? now still the same? Singapore almost got all container shipping lines set up their branch here. world is changed.

counter ( Date: 30-Jul-2014 15:54) Posted:

The purpose of starting NOL was to support the export-driven growth strategy. As an export-dependent economy, it is undesirable for the exports sector to be totally dependent on foreign shipping compaines.

You have distorted facts too far.

earlybird14 ( Date: 30-Jul-2014 15:30) Posted:

Purpose of NOL set up was same as Chartered Semi Conductor set up to attract related foreign business parties to set up regional office in Singapore.

If NOL and Chartered Semicon can perform as well as keppel, Sembcorp and other business units under Temasek which are market leaders, Temasek will be happy to support NOL continually. Unfortunately both of them are loser. APL contribute almost all revenue to NOL but APL is still a US company and main operation is still in US. Compared to NOL, PIL is more important to Singapore.

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Purpose of NOL set up was same as Chartered Semi Conductor set up to attract related foreign business parties to set up regional office in Singapore.

If NOL and Chartered Semicon can perform as well as keppel, Sembcorp and other business units under Temasek which are market leaders, Temasek will be happy to support NOL continually. Unfortunately both of them are loser. APL contribute almost all revenue to NOL but APL is still a US company and main operation is still in US. Compared to NOL, PIL is more important to Singapore.

counter ( Date: 30-Jul-2014 15:09) Posted:

Or maybe you would like to tell us why you think that NOL is less important to the Singapore than 20 years ago.

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Yes, very important 20 to 30 years ago.

counter ( Date: 30-Jul-2014 14:38) Posted:

Besides, the fact that the Singapore government started NOL to support and develop the Singapore economy tells you that it is deemed important to the economy. It does not take a genius to under that, does it.

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Anyway, result is coming. Besides profitability, investors shall look at NOL cash flow which they have to prepare the cash for the coming non-secure borrowing loan which will be expired in next 18 months. If their cash is reduced, it will be a very obvious warning sign for dilution in short term.

earlybird14 ( Date: 30-Jul-2014 08:56) Posted:

Temasek shall consider to acquire those offshore company like swiber, ezra, ezion and etc instead of NOL. The amount of singaporean employed by anyone of this company are more than NOL. NOL is just another company in Temasek old portfolio like Chartered Semi Con which is required to be consolidated by the market. The foreign content of NOL is huge and APL is running her headquarter in US.

Singapore require PSA instead of NOL, just a merely 2.3% shipping market share, the contribution from NOL to Singapore is very tiny. To you, all these may be mistake. However it can be a reference for others. For the time being, NOL need cash and chance of privatization is low, cash call become compulsory, dilution is coming.

Merging with Hapaq is definitely a good solution, will Temasek consider to be the major share holder? This chance may be higher but it will not be so fast since Hapaq just merged with CSAV and is busy with their IPO. In short term, this will not be a solution.

counter ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 18:28) Posted:

You keep making the same mistake again and again.

NOL is not just another investment in Temasek' s portfolio. Indeed, NOL was started in 1968 by the Singapore Government in an effort to developed and support Singapore' s economy. It was not set up with the primary objective of making profit.

Indeed, in contrast to your ' view' , I think that privatisation is likely.

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Temasek shall consider to acquire those offshore company like swiber, ezra, ezion and etc instead of NOL. The amount of singaporean employed by anyone of this company are more than NOL. NOL is just another company in Temasek old portfolio like Chartered Semi Con which is required to be consolidated by the market. The foreign content of NOL is huge and APL is running her headquarter in US.

Singapore require PSA instead of NOL, just a merely 2.3% shipping market share, the contribution from NOL to Singapore is very tiny. To you, all these may be mistake. However it can be a reference for others. For the time being, NOL need cash and chance of privatization is low, cash call become compulsory, dilution is coming.

Merging with Hapaq is definitely a good solution, will Temasek consider to be the major share holder? This chance may be higher but it will not be so fast since Hapaq just merged with CSAV and is busy with their IPO. In short term, this will not be a solution.

counter ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 18:28) Posted:

You keep making the same mistake again and again.

NOL is not just another investment in Temasek' s portfolio. Indeed, NOL was started in 1968 by the Singapore Government in an effort to developed and support Singapore' s economy. It was not set up with the primary objective of making profit.

Indeed, in contrast to your ' view' , I think that privatisation is likely.

earlybird14 ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 18:09) Posted:

After the acquisition of olam, temasek become the biggest shareholder which has the right to say even change the management if they perform badly. This is the same status of NOL now. Who will privatize a loss making company which cannot raise money from open market through dilution, notes or bonds? Gov policy is make sure temasek and gic remain transparency and profitablility. Nol privatization is almost zero chanc

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After the acquisition of olam, temasek become the biggest shareholder which has the right to say even change the management if they perform badly. This is the same status of NOL now. Who will privatize a loss making company which cannot raise money from open market through dilution, notes or bonds? Gov policy is make sure temasek and gic remain transparency and profitablility. Nol privatization is almost zero chance

counter ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 15:43) Posted:

Why is privatisation of NOL unlikely when that can happen to OLAM International which is also a strategic asset to Singapore, profitability aside?

Lucky03 ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 15:31) Posted:

Tamesek will not acquire as further acquisition is privatisation :) Earlybird, you are adamant that NOL can only continue to lose and absolutely no chance of ever turn profitable again

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Cash call, no bankrupcy. Cash call imply dilution is coming. holders will be forced to exercise their right to maintain their share holding to reserve the chance for NOL turn over. Otherwise, those right highly likely will be bought by NOL with discount price. Price will be diluted according to the total amount of new share being issued.

Temasek don' t really need to acquire NOL, they can increase her stake by purchasing those right who don' t want to subscribe. Short can be covered with all these new shares which result the discounted share price will not be recovered.

Trespasserx ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 12:29) Posted:

Ai yo isn't someone even worse.. Nol dropped from 1 dollar to 94 cent.. Sound as if Nol going to be bankrupt in weeks or months ha..
Talking about "over the board" comment.. U will have win the title outright..
Now 7 month got a lot of getai to watch and destress chill and relax

earlybird14 ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 12:14) Posted:

93 to 97? considered doing well?

Figures pointed here can be found on the report. 7 Aug can show good result or bad result, however, cash call risk is still there. NOL need cash for their heavy borrowing.

x 0

Unlikely, NOL is under their control and they are able to assign MD from Temasek to NOL directly which imply they are fully control of NOL, acquisition will give a hurdle to NOL to raise money from open market and Temasek has to bear all the losses from NOL.

Most likely raising the fund through right issue and backing by Temasek for those who don' t want to exercise their rights.

counter ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 13:01) Posted:

In my view, that will increase the likehood of Temasek acquiring NOL.

earlybird14 ( Date: 29-Jul-2014 12:14) Posted:

93 to 97? considered doing well?

Figures pointed here can be found on the report. 7 Aug can show good result or bad result, however, cash call risk is still there. NOL need cash for their heavy borrowing.

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93 to 97? considered doing well?

Figures pointed here can be found on the report. 7 Aug can show good result or bad result, however, cash call risk is still there. NOL need cash for their heavy borrowing.

Trespasserx ( Date: 25-Jul-2014 17:33) Posted:

Haha this nol group is very funny.. For the past two days when nol is doing well, not a single post from
earlybird.. Today drop 1/2 cent.. Here come earlybird putting up negative news on nol which is already well known in their 1Q report..
Vice versa, today no post from danger..
Let all chill and wait for 7 aug which will then prove who is right or wrong..

earlybird14 ( Date: 25-Jul-2014 16:55) Posted:

NOL has outstanding share of 2,594,641,448 @ 95cents which is equal to 2.47Billion Market Cap.

If NOL really cannot secure any bank loan for their unsecured bank loan, minimum 3 to 1 right issue is required to raise SGD 823Million or US659million for the unsecured loan which will be exposed to public in next 18 months.

The next coming 3 quarter results are very critical to NOL to show to the public that they can turn over in order to secure the bank loan or raise the money through right issue from the market for their unsecured 664Million borrowing. To a company like NOL with 8.8Billion revenue, cash flow is very critical. Below 500million is sufficient to give a very serious warning to the market.