| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
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NOL
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counter
Veteran |
04-Aug-2014 08:32
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Your previous posts indicate that you have been very negative about the shipping industry. Sensing that it may have turned the corner from recent indicators, you are shifting  your attack from the industry to  the firm. If I were in your position, which fortunately I am not, I would probably adopt the same strategy. You said that NOL was making a loss last year and hence it would not be able to turn profitable this year. It does take a genius to understand that this is navie thinking. A loss last year  does not necessarily  imply  a loss in the 2nd quarter this year for 2 obvious reasons. The revenue is likely to be higher due to the higher volume and the costs are likely be lower. Let us do not ignore the fact that some container liners which were making a loss last year are starting to make profit this year.
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counter
Veteran |
04-Aug-2014 08:27
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well said
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earlybird14
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04-Aug-2014 06:38
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There are no problem on shipping market. Global market growth trend is continue. Problem is on NOL. APL headquarter is in US. Long talking cost cutting doesn't really help NOL to turn profit. If NOL was really so successful in cost cutting as per their target which they mentioned they had cut. They should make profit in last year. However, their justification is not convincing at all. One of the main reason, the APL is not in Singapore. It is hard to push cost cutting plan effectively and efficiently.
Anyway, let see, result coming this week. I hope you all the best.
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earlybird14
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04-Aug-2014 06:31
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3 years is not short. 3 years loss making is enough to drag a healthy company to difficult situation. Result is coming soon, loss, break even or profit. Nol has to be profitable to survive and repay their unsecured loan. 4th years loss imply a huge dilution is required for loan repayment and the start of CSM history.
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earlybird14
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04-Aug-2014 06:24
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agreed, no problem for the 'rest of the year'. Problem will happen in next 18 months, 600milout of 800mil is unsecured. The repayment of vessels are not fully repay. The huge one is coming. How critical for this quarter. After this quarter, cut down to 12 months.
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sgng123
Supreme |
04-Aug-2014 01:34
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That the problem with u and earlybird both are extremely short sighted and few investment experience on ship trading  judging on the comment both made. All ignor the big picture side of stuff and focus on ur own narrow view. World economy is recovering it is not we said that but lot of renowed economist saying and it is backedby solid US ISM/GDP/Job data. Recent August 1 GRi increase in transpacifc is big, 400+ in WC and 600+ in EC, Ec spot rate  highest in  SFCI history FYI. Spot rate pointed to increased cargo being carried therefore shown in increase in spot rate. However do not take this into account that freight rate for ship would increase as well as most of ship business is conducted through fixed rate contract. At most the peak season surcharge would applied in 3Q that all. The Key focus is still on the cost saving from having a more fuel efficency ships and better load factor from G6 alliance in transpacific. NOL fleet capacity dropped from 120 ships in 1Q to just 106 ships in 2Q as shown in NOL website, that represented roughly a 10-15% cut in total capacity. Assuming volume carried in 2Q is same YoY, it is almost a full load on ship to and for transpacifc. Again i am hand off this counter till we get a clearer picture, caution prevail but cautious optimistic. |
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Sharemaker
Member |
03-Aug-2014 23:24
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If  other shipping lines can earn $$ in a difficult environment, what do you say about NOL? Don' t you see similarity in CSM?  Do you think NOL  got the right mgmt? Look at Keppel and how it transform itself. Even if the  shipping rate  pick  up,it is not the mgmt effort?  Maybe get the  previous Keppel  mgmt  to replace them  or someone know to be hardcore in restructuring companies. Unfortunately, Temasek only treat  NOL as strategic investment and will never intervene. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Aug-2014 17:41
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Sorry typo mistake. The 3rd note $280m 4.65% due 2020.
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Aug-2014 17:39
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Many including earlybird has grave concern with NOL cash flow and repayment of outstanding loans.
On 28 Jun, 2010, Neptune Orient Lines Limited (?NOL?) had established a US$1,500,000,000 Euro Medium Term Note Programme (the ?Programme?), under which NOL may issue notes (the ?Notes?) to refinance its purchase of the 32 ships and working capital. Thereafter it has issued a total of 4 notes with varying interest with the first $400m at 4.25% due in 2017. The other 3 are $300m 4.4% due 2019, $280m 4.65% due 2030 and $300m 4.4% due 2021. Important for the short term is for NOL to be cash positive from operating activities. Given that its CFO updated at last Analysts Briefing after the release of Q1 result that it had largely made its payment for the new ships and not expecting significant outlay for the rest of the year, we should not see deteriorating cash position.
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counter
Veteran |
03-Aug-2014 14:01
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You have made a good point. This precisely the problem with earlybird's arguments which ignore developmental factors.
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Aug-2014 12:37
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To be fair, NOL underwent the last 3 years renewing its fleet and takin aggressive cost cutting measures. They could have anticipated the trend of lower freight rate and followed the steps of Mersk much earlier. The question now is whether the next 3 years will be like the last 3 years.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
03-Aug-2014 10:03
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Next week 3 years continual history will happen again. You have been saying the same thing for 3 years.
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sgng123
Supreme |
02-Aug-2014 23:12
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How peep get all the bad omen for NOL when it main export market is recovering strongly, Dow Jones crosses 17K new record, US2Q GDP grow strongly at 4%, ISm data pointed to sustain growth, US job growth sustained at 200K for 6 months straight. All these macro data are pointing to a global recovering lead by US and very good for NOL business and with cargo volume growing at double digit in 2Q for transpacifc seen from the japanese liners and most recent August GRI success with port terminal in US reported healthy cargo volume. I just don get it how peep so pessimistic about NOL. 2M alliance by maesrk and msc most likely would be shoot down by china once they made the application for it and that would force them to raise freight rate to compensate for lower load factor on their new 18K ships scheduled to deliver in 2015. With established customer bases in transpacifc , NOl just need to get their operating cost down for sustained profitability. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Aug-2014 17:55
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Ha ! Forgot about that :) To earlybird, NOL is 'is a heap of dung' and some of us believe there is a 'piece of jade'. Hopefully, the right craftsman cleans the 'jade' and it 'gleams as new'.
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counter
Veteran |
02-Aug-2014 17:23
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Did you ask whether there would be any rights issue or privatisation?
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Aug-2014 15:18
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And add a bit of divine advice from Kuan Yin 100 Divine Lots Interpretation @ Bugis Temple Singapore :)
Lot 16 Don?t wear a mournful face with drooping eyes. Put aside all cares and think of joy. A piece of jade is found in a heap of dung. The craftsman cleans the jade and it gleams as new. This lot depicts the phenomenon of harmony of yin and yang. (Note: In the Chinese Book of Changes, the character ?yin? means the female principle, also means ?moon?, ?shade? and ?negative? and the character ?yang? means the male principle, also means ?sun?, ?light? and ?positive?. When the two principles are in harmony, as in this lot, your plans will work out successfully.) What you have gained will not be lost and for what you have lost will be compensated. A villain will experience misfortune as punishment but the virtuous man will be rewarded with good luck. It is an unfavorable year for the safety of your home but you yourself will not be harmed only during the autumn and winter. Money matters will work out successfully so will matrimony. An expectant mother will have a shock. You must pray for your cattle and silkworm but nothing will go wrong with your domestic animals. Tie visitor will arrive in time and the missing will be found. You will find no clues as to the whereabouts of the things lost. You are advised not to go to law not to migrate. The sick needs prayers to god. No harm will come to the ancestral graves.
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spore1
Supreme |
02-Aug-2014 13:51
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You are almost 100% reporting all news related for Shipping & economics . very gd! NOL posing well to move up higher towards $1.00..
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Aug-2014 00:56
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PUBLISHED AUGUST 01, 2014
Update: China manufacturing activity surges in July: govt Chinese manufacturing activity increased sharply in July, rising at its fastest pace in more than two years, an official survey showed Friday, as the world's second-largest economy shows signs of increasing momentum [BEIJING] Chinese manufacturing activity increased sharply in July, rising at its fastest pace in more than two years, an official survey showed Friday, as the world's second-largest economy shows signs of increasing momentum. The official purchasing managers index (PMI) hit 51.7 last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. The figure was up from 51.0 in June, and the best since 53.3 in April 2012. It was also above the median 51.4 forecast in a survey of nine economists by The Wall Street Journal. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
01-Aug-2014 23:19
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SCFI jumped by 140 again this week and asia-US east coast rate highest point in SCFI history. All these might just pointed to cargo diversion from west coast to east coast due to fear of ongoing port labor contract renewal and also demand pick up too. From the japanese carriers financial report ( NYK, MOL, K line etc) all registered double digit gain in volume  either transpacifc or europe trade lane. Existing freight rate level  might be the new norm due to bigger and more fuel efficient ships being deployed on the  major developed tradelane, so key to future profitability is get into mega alliance to improve efficency and buy bigger and more fuel efficient ships to lower slot cost. All these NOL had done and about to complete it restructuring this year, be patient and wait for more info before jumping into conclusion. Currently getting reports from JOC that all major port in US/europe experience congestion and the situation is more worse in east coast due to cargo divertion and more cargo delivered due to bigger ship being deployed. Well the deployment of bigger and more fuel efficient ship meant lower freight rate but higher volume for carriers,  the lower the operating cost = better profit very simple. let hope NOL cost saving and fleet renewal plan pay off in 2Q. |
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counter
Veteran |
01-Aug-2014 14:05
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From  the queuing, buying and selling patterns, it seems like someone is accumulating at $0.955. |
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