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M1 Limited - Take the 5 Cents Too!

Author: simonsg | Publish date: Fri, 2 Nov 2018, 08:54 AM

Keppel-SPH could make firm VGO in 3 weeks&rsquo time once IMDA approves.
VGO is likely to go through. Counter-bid from Axiata unlikely, in our view.
We downgrade M1 to HOLD with an unchanged target price of S$2.06.

VGO for M1 at S$2.06/share

In late Sep, Keppel Corp (SGX:BN4) and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH, SGX:T39), via an SPV (&ldquo Konnectivity&rdquo ), made a pre-conditional Voluntary General Offer (VGO) for all M1 shares at S$2.06/share in cash. Konnectivity (and parties in concert) have 33.27% deemed interest.
Pre-condition for this VGO is regulatory approval from the Info-communications Media Development Authority (IMDA). The VGO is also conditional upon Konnectivity obtaining sufficient acceptances such that it holds more than 50% of M1 at close of offer.

VGO Will Likely Go Through

If pre-conditions are met, a firm offer could be made in three weeks&rsquo time (from 22 Nov), while the earliest possible close of offer is by 10 Jan 2019. There is no intention to keep M1 listed, if the free float requirement is not met.
We expect the VGO to go through as
1. IMDA is unlikely to object,
2. Konnectivity only needs a minimum acceptance of 17.23%, and
3. it is not subject to Axiata&rsquo s acceptance.
Other shareholders will accept the VGO, as M1&rsquo s share price will likely drop if the VGO is called off, in our view.

Don&rsquo t Hope for An Aggressive Counter-bid From Axiata

Shortly after Keppel-SPH&rsquo s VGO, Reuters reported that Axiata is likely to reject the offer and is in talks to team up with private equity/other firms to make its own counter-bid, citing its sources. Unless it is able to find a partner that is willing to fund most of the counter-bid, we think Axiata is likely to accept the VGO offer so as to avoid overstretching its balance sheet.
Axiata will also prefer to redeploy capital into core markets/ businesses, rather than have it stuck in Singapore (a non-core market), in our view.
Its initial investments in M1 have also been fully recovered via the last 13 years of dividends. Based on the book value of S$1.94 per share, Axiata will book in a gain on disposal of RM97m.

Downgrade to HOLD with An Unchanged Target Price of S$2.06

M1&rsquo s share price is near our target price and we think Axiata is unlikely to make a counter-bid at a much higher price. Hence, we downgrade M1 from Add to HOLD with an unchanged target price of S$2.06 based on the VGO price.
M1&rsquo s 14.6x FY19F EV/OpFCF is in line with the ASEAN telco average.
Key downside risk is non-approval from IMDA or insufficient acceptance for the VGO.
Key upside risk is an aggressive counter-bid from Axiata.

Source: CGS-CIMB Research - 02 Nov 2018
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comments?

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05-Nov-2018 17:40

Seatrium / Sembmarine

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yup no body know the top and the bottom
if am not wrong , this year top was abt 2.88 and bottom was 1.44.......
if mkt turn possitive then back to 2.00 should not be a problem but if Wall St crash then 1.00 or 1.20 may also happen.
accumulate slowly if down any 10 or 20 cents

Francisgohyc ( Date: 05-Nov-2018 15:18) Posted:

We don' t know how far the price can go down or up

At $1.59 if keep for long, it should be able to make profit in three month time

Good luck to you

KAMAL0883 ( Date: 05-Nov-2018 14:31) Posted:

LOL don' t say who smart who stupid ............
if px suddenly drop to 1.55 then you will make him feel embarrassing ......
i also hope Trader25 is smart cos i vested at 1.59 and 1.60 also LOLLLLL

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05-Nov-2018 14:35

Venture / Venture

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not confident ???
what' s the px they bot back ?

investshare ( Date: 05-Nov-2018 13:48) Posted:

Buyback at high price show management is reckless and emotional.

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05-Nov-2018 14:31

Seatrium / Sembmarine

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LOL don' t say who smart who stupid ............
if px suddenly drop to 1.55 then you will make him feel embarrassing ......
i also hope Trader25 is smart cos i vested at 1.59 and 1.60 also LOLLLLLL

Francisgohyc ( Date: 05-Nov-2018 11:29) Posted:

Hello brother you are very smart, buy at $1.59 should be safe level.

Hope can get it at $1.58, people fear we go in to buy

The recession is in 2019 enf of the year

trader25yr ( Date: 05-Nov-2018 10:51) Posted:

OK ... pick up a bit at 1.59

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05-Nov-2018 14:27

Venture / Venture

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I noticed Ganghoo very positive about stock market/individual stock regardless of whether vested or non vested LOLLLLL

it' s good to be positive if one vested but sometime we also have to be more relastic and face the reality if market not doing well.

price up up down down very normal , no gtd that only up no down.

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05-Nov-2018 12:36

Hyflux / Hyflux

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WHO COULD EXPECT THIS FORMELLY 5 STARS SG BLUE CHIP COMPANY CAME INTO SUCH A MESS TODAY.

THANKS TO OL !!!!!!

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02-Nov-2018 17:14

Seatrium / Sembmarine

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this year high was $2.88+++

Francisgohyc ( Date: 02-Nov-2018 12:38) Posted:

Hello Trademaster, SMM have fallen from $2.10, at this price $1.60 is pretty low liao ( Last few days lowest $1.58 with shortist short around 20% )

I will follow you when you re-enter ths counter, selll my CDL by next week and pick up SMM

This counter is my luck counter, every time buy at the right time and sell at a profit

trademaster ( Date: 02-Nov-2018 11:24) Posted:

wow sounds good to catch shortists
not vested yet

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02-Nov-2018 10:35

Sembcorp Ind / SembCorp Industries

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Brasil Present change hand bad for those company like Kep Cop and SMM who hv business there

yehyeh ( Date: 02-Nov-2018 10:16) Posted:

Oil price has recovered
but semb marine still not doing well...
not sure how can deal with this.
few years already

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31-Oct-2018 16:27

Hyflux / Hyflux

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do business must think of long term not when raining day want the umbreller back from your clients immediately....
if bank strategy like what you said then the bank will lose their goodwill in future market..
i think you are one of the shortist want to see Hyflux close shop

ysh2006 ( Date: 31-Oct-2018 16:21) Posted:

If Maybank can answer to shareholder why company owed money can extend and extend again while margin call ,no money force sell immediately ?...must query the Maybank chairman, missed the opportunity to recover the owe money ,did Hyflux pay late charges ?

marketuncle ( Date: 31-Oct-2018 14:26) Posted:

Asking for another 4 months.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/hyflux-intends-to-seek-four-month-extension-of-moratorium-10882860

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30-Oct-2018 16:24

Others / Traders Portfolio

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damn rich

shangli ( Date: 30-Oct-2018 15:59) Posted:

i still need to polish my skill

daxdax18 ( Date: 30-Oct-2018 15:56) Posted:

Wow 500 lots

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30-Oct-2018 15:20

CapitaLand / Capitaland

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Wall Street hasn' t really crash yet ....

once crashed $2.50 also consider high

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29-Oct-2018 17:23

Genting Sing / Genting SP Next Move

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SGX might not allow them to use genting singapore to bid for IR in japan

KAMAL0883 ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 17:21) Posted:

that is what they did ....i.e. genting singapore , genting malaysia , genting philippine ......

so can be genting hokkaido , japan

shangli ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 16:43) Posted:

will genting launch a totally new co and is not related at all to genting singapore

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29-Oct-2018 17:21

Genting Sing / Genting SP Next Move

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that is what they did ....i.e. genting singapore , genting malaysia , genting philippine ......

so can be genting hokkaido , japan

shangli ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 16:43) Posted:

will genting launch a totally new co and is not related at all to genting singapore?

Luzern ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 16:27) Posted:

Just addressing the concerns some forummers might have about funding if they get the 1 of the 3 IR licenses.

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29-Oct-2018 16:17

Others / Traders Portfolio

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can be a trick .....stay alert

shangli ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 16:01) Posted:

futures turn mix now..it' s a good sign and hope for us stocks rebound tonight and tomorrow night. then local stocks should stage a mild rebound. i now feel today is good day to market, but need to select stocks

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29-Oct-2018 16:07

Genting Sing / Genting SP Next Move

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loan may be part of it say 50% and best to get shareholders contribute another 50% from right issue.

Luzern ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 16:02) Posted:

Depends........ the Boss holds over 52% of Genting. Would he want to part with billions of his own money when that money can be earning him over 3% interest in US Bonds? How much is the interest rate for loan in Japan now?

KAMAL0883 ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 15:57) Posted:

Do right issue better than take loa

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29-Oct-2018 15:57

Genting Sing / Genting SP Next Move

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Do right issue better than take loan

Luzern ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 15:55) Posted:

If they really get a license for the JP IR, how much will it cost them to built the IR? S$4Billion enough? That is about how much they have now ........but wait why use their current funds when its so cheap to take loan from the Japanese capital market

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29-Oct-2018 15:55

Genting Sing / Genting SP Next Move

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not dare not .......
1.30 time i also play b4
just feel mkt gg to hv a hard crash so rather play safe
HEVER EARN BETTER THAN BAD LOSE !!!!

huathuat88888 ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 15:48) Posted:

When Funds eat up fast, say next week 95 96 cts, i don think ah seng kamal will buy....cos if thsy don even dare buy at 88 cts, and if they missed the boat, they will say wait till again...

And wait ....and wait .... LOL

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29-Oct-2018 15:28

Genting Sing / Genting SP Next Move

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i dun mind to jeep below 80 cents despite the historical low was 40 cents ++

huathuat88888 ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 15:25) Posted:

Keen retailn buyer who shows interest in Genting DETECTED.

LOL

KAMAL0883 ( Date: 29-Oct-2018 11:46) Posted:

Better be careful ! Market hasn' t really crash yet ...............

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29-Oct-2018 12:12

Golden Agri-Res / GoldenAgr

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1000 shares or 1000 lots ????
1000 lots need how much $$ for CFD ??
if 1000 lots cash can key yourself ? no need Broker to uplift your limit ??

AhLiang ( Date: 27-Oct-2018 20:06) Posted:

Thanks for the info. Have keyed in 1000 lots at 0.235 to buy. Hope shortists short big on Monday.

SinglePore ( Date: 27-Oct-2018 17:58) Posted:

https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20181027145936-12-341922/petinggi-anak-usaha-sinar-mas-diciduk-saat-ott-dprd-kalteng

Breaking news: Just few hours ago a company executive was arrested by KPK on corruption. KPK is now busy in investigation.

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29-Oct-2018 11:46

Genting Sing / Genting SP Next Move

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Better be careful ! Market hasn' t really crash yet ...............

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