This cannot be real! In my last article on
AEM share price on 29 March 2026, I wrote that the counter could soar to $6 in the following week. That didn&rsquo t happen until 24 April 2026 when AEM share price crossed $6.06. That was the week when AEM was in the Top Ten Institutional Net Buy List, with big boys buying $31 million worth of AEM shares.
In this blog, I have always maintained that on its day, AEM share price can be unbeatable. Conversely, when the tide goes against AEM share price, the counter can spiral out of control. On this note, this counter is really not for the faint-hearted.
In the last week of April, AEM share price continued its red-hot form to smash a historic high of $8 on 30 April. Since then, the counter went through some correction to reach the current $7.35. The correction is likely due to investors taking profit before the Labour Day long weekend.
In my view, the pull-back is healthy as no stock, regardless how good the business fundamentals, would rise linearly. Notwithstanding this, AEM share price is currently trading at a
monstrous PE of 137. Obviously, the explosive form is caused by institutional funds trying to push up AEM share price.
But could be the triggering point that led to the big boys&rsquo interest? And has the train of fortune left the station?
I have been invested in AEM since 2022, having entered at a high of $5.22 in early 2022. That was the time when AEM&rsquo s business relied almost entirely on Intel for revenue. Fast forward 4 years, things have changed dramatically for AEM as it managed
to successfully diversified its customer base with 2 AI/HPC customers, 1 Tier-1 memory customer and the world largest OSAT, ASE. Against this backdrop, I am still holding to my initial investment of AEM as I am of the view that the stock is worth at least $10. This was my view back then in
2020 and
2023.
In fact, the hypersonic form of AEM share price led to a slew of analysts scrambling to upgrade their target prices, with CGS International setting an astonishing $10.15 target price and DBS setting a target of $8.90.
Note that this is an opinion article and not meant to be a financial advice. Please do your due diligence or engage financial advisors before investing in the stock market. I am vested in this counter, so my views on AEM share price may be biased.
Unlocking AEM share price true value
Whilst the successful diversification of customer base has given AEM share price much sparkle, I believe the key to unlocking the true value of AEM share price lies in it being dual-listed in Nasdaq and SGX, as well as riding on the current structural shift in semiconductor industry.
AEM is one of the rare homegrown deep-tech that holds a valuable proprietary thermal control technology for testing AI chips. Its technology is much sought after by global chipmakers like Intel, AMD, Nvidia, ASE and the likes. Its peers &ndash Teradyne and Cohu &ndash are listed in Nasdaq. Recent regulatory developments made me think that a dual-listing in Nasdaq could be on the cards.On 7 April 2026, Minister Chee Hong Tat read the bill for MAS to implement Global Listing Board (GLB) to facilitate dual-listing of SGX companies in Nasdaq. Following the news, AEM share price rocketed and led to its market cap crossing $2 billion, the eligibility threshold for GLB. And then, JP Morgan appeared out of nowhere to become substantial shareholder of AEM on 10 April 2026. Within a month, AEM soared from $4+ to the current $7+. On the basis of these events, I am of the opinion that big boys are betting for AEM to list on Nasdaq, probably by end of 2026.
On 30 April 2026, MAS proposed new framework that paved the way for GLB to go live in mid-2026. Being a deep tech, AEM is a prime candidate for GLB. After all, Nasdaq is an exchange saturated with tech like homegrown Grab. A dual listing in Nasdaq makes sense for investor as it would effectively create a 24-hour trading cycle for AEM shares and also significantly drives up the trading liquidity.
Despite the possibility of being listed in Nasdaq, it remains a long shot at the end of the day. What really matters the most if AEM is able to successfully ride on the current industry move to System Level Testing &ndash AI/HPC chips are so complex they must be tested as a " full system." AEM is a
pioneer in SLT which is becoming a structural requirement for the AI era. The transition to
four major customer pillars (including a new AI leader expected to overtake Intel in 2026) is a structural re-rating of the company' s risk profile. This is why analysts have raised their target prices to
$8.90 and
$10.15.
2026 should be the start of upcycle
Although AEM is enjoying the benefits of the structural shifts, its business is still dependent on capital expenditure made by chipmakers. During 2023- 2024, AEM&rsquo s earnings crashed due to an inventory over-glut faced by the industry. So to be sure, while we are now in the early stage of the upcycle, cyclical downturns will take place.
Currently, AEM&rsquo s Test Cell business should be receiving volume ramps from both Intel and AMD. Intel&rsquo s foundry business has also secured customer wins, such as Elon Musk&rsquo s Terafab and also Microsoft. In fact, Intel Foundry revenue grew
16% year-over-year to
$5.4 billion in Q1 2026. And let&rsquo s not forget that US government has invested
$8.9 billion directly into Intel common stock as part of the CHIPS Act and Secure Enclave programs. These developments had led to the revival of Intel.
The recent EPIC award affirms that AEM remains a top-tier equipment supplier of Intel. It also serves as an important bridge for AEM to enter
Intel Foundry Services (IFS) ecosystem. Traditionally, Intel build its own manufacturing plant for its own chips and AEM is its supplier to test its chips.
As Intel pivots to manufacturing chips for others like Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon via IFS, AEM&rsquo s System Level Test equipment would be used to test Intel&rsquo s customers&rsquo chips.
After years of heavy investment in R& D, AEM highlighted growth from a
second AI/HPC customer that is ramping up high-volume manufacturing. This data confirms that they now have at least
two major players in the AI/HPC space. AEM also mentioned that demand from the second AI/HPC remains robust and that &ldquo revenue contribution
is anticipated to grow significantly in FY2026, en route to becoming the Group&rsquo s new top customer by revenue&rdquo . Based on market speculations, this second customer could be AMD.
All road leads to R& D
The ongoing patent dispute with Advantest vindicates my belief that the key battle in semiconductor industry lies in the intellectual property. AEM&rsquo s proprietary Thermal Control Technology is considered its " crown jewel&rdquo that provides the company the competitive advantage to gain market share. As AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC) chips become more powerful, they generate extreme heat. AEM&rsquo s patented ability to test these chips under precise thermal conditions without damage has allowed it to win major contracts with " next-gen" AI customers, diversifying away from its historical reliance on Intel
In 2025, AEM continued to double down on R& D activities as the R& D expenses increased 1% to $23.8 million. The investment appears to pay off as the FY2025 revenue hit
S$399 million, driven by a " second major AI/HPC customer" which now accounts for over 25% of their Test Cell revenue.
On the other hand, AEM is embroiled in yet another lawsuit from AEM&rsquo s competitor, Advantest, who is suing AEM over alleged infringement of 2 patents relating to wafer-level test systems.
AEM claims that the patents relate to a specific wafer level test system that is not practiced by the company and that it strongly denies the allegations in Advantest' s complaint. AEM has already retained U.S. counsel to defend itself against Advantest' s claims, which lack merit.
It all seems like dé jà vu to me as the Advantest has previously sued AEM over patent infringement in 2021. In that saga, AEM has paid Advantest US$20 million in two instalments. Additionally, that was a long drawn-out legal battle, causing AEM to incur massive legal fees. According to DBS research, AEM incurred $11.1 million/$27.0 million/$9.0 million in FY21/22/23 vs $5.1 million in FY20 and $9.2 million in FY24. Both the legal fees and arbitration settlement have weighed on AEM&rsquo s financial performance in recent years, plunging the company into turmoil.
The company also maintained that &ldquo the filing of Advantest&rsquo s latest complaint does not affect AEM&rsquo s business operations, its existing commercial offerings or products, or its ongoing ability to serve its customers. The Company maintains its revenue guidance for 2H 2025 as previously announced on 13 Aug 2025&rdquo . Notwithstanding the stance made by AEM, I do think that its too premature to claim that the latest lawsuit will not have material impact on the reputation of AEM given that it is still a relatively unknown player in the global stage. For this reason, I do think that investors should thread with caution.
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Conclusion
It is not a secret that AEM has been struggling to turn around the corner for the past few years. Despite the challenges, Temasek Holdings has not trimmed its stake in AEM. This is unlike the rest of the substantial shareholders like Malaysia&rsquo s EPF and Aberdeen, which had pared down their stakes in AEM in the past few years in order to reduce their risk exposures. The steadfast conviction of Temasek Holdings in AEM might be puzzling for many investors. Yet, in my perspective, I believe that conviction could be driven by Singapore&rsquo s government.
If you look back over the decades, Singapore has not produced many innovative products at the global market stage, probably due to the very small talent pool. Against this backdrop, AEM Holdings must have attracted the attention of the Singapore government with its various technology patents to support the System Level Test 2.0 solutions for the semiconductor industry
The macro-economic fundamentals have turned favorably for AEM but the looming Advantest lawsuit could throw a spanner in the works for AEM&rsquo s business recovery. That said, the long-term potential of AEM is there but existing investors need to have strong holding power to withstand this winter. In this regard, I am cautiously optimistic that AEM share price may hit $10 in 2026. Till then, enjoy the ride.
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