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Thank you for sharing so openly your hard work and analysis. Appreciate it as always.
willisow ( Date: 02-Sep-2016 11:12) Posted:
Hi guys, M1 have fallen 5% currently..it' s valuation is sgd2.70..those who r interested in telco stocks can enter at a 10% margin of safety from its valuation or at your own comfortable price if u prefer it to be lower. Currently M1 s the cheapest among the 3 operators..
Good luck :)
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I definitely will load again. Still remember your valuation of DBS. =)
willisow ( Date: 01-Sep-2016 21:11) Posted:
Ok..hope that u will reload at a price that is even lower than before.
All the best :)
pinkowl ( Date: 01-Sep-2016 19:36) Posted:
I'm still following this thread. Just a bit of an observer. :)
Have closed my position on dbs a few days ago, and am looking to reload if opportunities arise. All the best to all. Huat Huat! |
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Sorry, I dun feel this way as a Singaporean. How do one be proactive about an outbreak that produces zero to mild symptoms on most people?
Singapore is honest and dared to own up. Other countries may NOT even know or chose to be silent about it.
Instead of playing it down, Singapore is doing her control by playing it up, warning citizens that it may spread beyond affected areas. While it may set a temporary negative impact to tourism, I' m confident SIngapore will do well in controlling Zika just like how it' d done well in managing SARS.
investshare ( Date: 02-Sep-2016 08:49) Posted:
MOH has failed Singaporean. Instead of proactively going out for signs of outbreak, they took a reactive approach waiting for GP to trigger them. Read that 2 pregnant women affected. Pray that the mothers and babies are safe.
Qanghoo ( Date: 30-Aug-2016 17:14) Posted:
Likely to. Hotel n F& B counters Orchard Rd retail all maybe affected? More importantly is how did we apparently get caught off guard? Will the more worrisome part be how big will the problem become?
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Queued at 10.50. Didn't get it and soar. Sob. 😢
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I've queued the entire of last week at 1.63. Only 3000 more to go and then jumped up and missed me. Sob.
sun233 ( Date: 01-Sep-2016 21:12) Posted:
Wow 1.655. I too think some sort of announcement coming.
Qanghoo ( Date: 29-Aug-2016 16:49) Posted:
I' ve a haunch something +ve on its way ..... Fingers crossed ....
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I'm still following this thread. Just a bit of an observer. :)
Have closed my position on dbs a few days ago, and am looking to reload if opportunities arise. All the best to all. Huat Huat!
willisow ( Date: 01-Sep-2016 19:26) Posted:
U r right...every dog owner will feel the same :) Quite sometime didn' t see u in here, thought u go holiday :p
pinkowl ( Date: 01-Sep-2016 19:10) Posted:
| Yes. Dogs definitely understand some words. They are such intelligent animals. No need to see video...I have one with me to prove the case. 😊 |
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Yes. Dogs definitely understand some words. They are such intelligent animals. No need to see video...I have one with me to prove the case. 😊
willisow ( Date: 01-Sep-2016 18:57) Posted:
Hi guys, there' s a video in cnbc showing a new study was done on dogs by putting their brain on scan. When they are given a meaningless message at excited n upbeat tone, there is not much reaction from their brain. But when they are told of meaningful message even at a neutral tone, their brain responded actively n the study confirmed that dogs do understand what human say. As a dog owner I fully agreed with this study..those who r interested can view from cnbc...very interesting :)
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Willisow, your posts are so inspirational and thanks for sharing. Pls keep them coming. It's just intriguing how you decided to cut off and move to another country.
Have you ever thought of coming back since you have 'made it'? Or used to the new country? How do you stay there permanently without a work visa?
Pls keep your posts coming and ignore minority who don't appreciate such great sharing. 😊
willisow ( Date: 27-Aug-2016 14:22) Posted:
After 7 years of hardwork, now is much much easier as compared to the beginning..when u speak to any of the value investor, they will tell u that they are very free. More time are spent on evaluating a new company. Once we fully understood how the company operate, we just need to set up spreadsheet by inputting their financial data. Thereafter we just need to monitor their performance from the quarterly report. This month is more busy becos is half year reporting month, next month will be very free, basically nothing to do. But I will keep myself busy by analysing new company becos I kept a pool of potential investment targets, whenever my existing stock hit valuation I will sell it n switch to another stock that is below valuation. Thus the larger the pool, the more investment opportunity..
I can' t have everybody to read or agreed to what I write..however those who read can take it as a second opinion n monitor it' s usefulness as time goes by. Things that Im confident to share openly, I expect it to be tested over time like the DBS n galaxy entertainment group valuation price. Thank you..
sg_investor ( Date: 27-Aug-2016 13:53) Posted:
No wonder you lose $. spend so much time writing these stuff nobody reads.
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Wanted to ask this question too. I'll take it as 1.61 since its indicated in the sgx announcement.
duran123 ( Date: 27-Aug-2016 12:43) Posted:
Is the coming DPU 1.7 cents or 1.61 cents? I read from their presentation saying it' s 1.61 cents, but the media keep saying it' s 1.7 cents.
Can someone please enlighten?
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Thanks, sun. Love the read. 😊
sun233 ( Date: 27-Aug-2016 12:07) Posted:
Willisow.........This is more interesting. We are here to share ideas and learn if there is anything to learn. Those who are here to influence or think they can influence are just plain ignorant. Any platform should e viewed with magnifying glasses. Anyway this is just some light reading. While i don' t agree with everything he says some points are worth a second look. Some of your posts are interesting. Keep it up and like Pink said thanks for paragraphing. Happy weekend to you.
&lsquo Rich Dad&rsquo author Robert Kiyosaki: If you&rsquo re investing for the long term, &lsquo you&rsquo re crazy&rsquo
He offered up insights on making money, becoming an entrepreneur and even touched on politics.
His advice on how to get rich:
&ldquo The rich do not work for money. Most people do not understand that, because they&rsquo re taught to go to school and get a job for money. The rich don&rsquo t work for money.
And one of the reasons for that is money is no longer money. One of the reasons for that is in 1971, President Nixon took the U.S. Dollar off the gold standard and basically screwed the world. It&rsquo s bad for the poor and middle class. As Bernie Sanders said, &lsquo wealth and income inequality is the greatest moral crisis facing America as well as the world today.&rsquo
The gap is growing between the rich and poor. The rich don&rsquo t work for money. If you went to school and got a job, and you&rsquo re saving money and investing in the stock market today, you&rsquo re going to lose.&rdquo
On his prediction that in 2016 the world would see the worst stock market crash in history:
&ldquo We&rsquo re on the edge of a cliff right now. We have never been here before. If you&rsquo re still saving money when interest rates are negative, you&rsquo ve got to be crazy. When you&rsquo re investing for the long-term in the stock market, where there is no connection between stock price and reality, you&rsquo re crazy.&rdquo
His advice on what to invest in now: cybercurrencies, gold, silver?
&ldquo My answer is always the same. You got to come up with your own answers.
I love gold, I was buying gold at 70 bucks an ounce. I&rsquo m a gold bug. On the other side, there&rsquo s this guy named Harry Dent, a very smart guy, who says gold is going to drop to $250/ounce. Another very smart guy James Rickards, the author of &lsquo Currency Wars,&rsquo says gold is going to go to $10,000/ounce. So somewhere in between is your reality.
All coins have three sides: head, tails, or hedge. Your job is to stand on the edge of the coin and listen to both sides. I love gold but I don&rsquo t use gold as an investment, I use gold as an insurance policy, a hedge. Because I suspect the U.S. dollar is going to be toast in a few years. Now, if it doesn&rsquo t, I still have gold. I&rsquo m hedging my positions all the time.&rdquo
On the election and how it will affect the economy:
&ldquo I hate to say this but I don&rsquo t think it makes a difference who wins the election. It&rsquo s the bankers, the Fed, that control the whole world economy, not a president. Donald Trump is my friend. I&rsquo m going to vote for him. I think he is a great man. But unfortunately I don&rsquo t think it makes any difference at this time. The problem is too big.&rdquo
On investing in real estate:
&ldquo Real estate is a long-term hold. It&rsquo s not liquid. I don&rsquo t care if the market is up or down. What I&rsquo m looking for is a bargain. I make most of my money when the markets crash. I made most of my money in 2007. I made even more money in the subprime crash. I don&rsquo t care about the overall economy or the markets. I&rsquo m looking for an opportunity that no one else sees. I like residential real estate. I don&rsquo t invest in REITs or anything paper.&rdquo
&ldquo I do not invest in Hawaii, California and New York because of the taxes. Real estate is really not about real estate. It&rsquo s about debt, taxes and laws. I go to the areas that are favorable to investors, to capitalists. I stay out of areas that are more socialist-inclined, like California.&rdquo
His advice for young people joining the job market:
&ldquo Don&rsquo t just look for money and a high-paying job. That&rsquo s selling yourself like a whore. The question I ask young people is, &lsquo What would you do for free? If you could do anything, what problems do you want to solve?&rsquo Go find a way to solve it.&rdquo
On working for a company vs. being an entrepreneur:
&ldquo Everybody is born an entrepreneur. I never met a child not interested in money, but the system beats it out of you. Take a job for what you want to learn.
What life skills do I want to accomplish? How am I going to get those life skills? If you&rsquo re going to be dangled by a paycheck, you&rsquo re a whore. That&rsquo s really what you are.
There are fewer jobs today. We need more entrepreneurs to create jobs. Our schools create employees. That&rsquo s the crisis right now.&rdquo
On flunking out of school -- three times:
&ldquo I flunked out of school three times, because I can&rsquo t write, and I couldn&rsquo t type. I flunked out of accounting. What do I write all day about? And type all day about? Accounting. Accounting is the subject. If you&rsquo re going to do anything, start with a bookkeeping course. You&rsquo ve got to know your numbers. Numbers tell you a story. After you get through a basic bookkeeping course&hellip then you can take basic business accounting. That&rsquo s how you learn, it&rsquo s in the numbers. If you can&rsquo t read the numbers, you don&rsquo t know what&rsquo s going on. It&rsquo s not that hard to get ahead quickly because most people highly educated, with good grades, have no financial education.&rdquo
On finding a mentor:
&ldquo Choose your teachers wisely. In Sunday school, in the story of Christ, there are the Three Wise Men. They went in search of a teacher. That is the key to life. No matter how wise you are, you can always learn from someone else.&rdquo
On assets over money:
&ldquo Lesson No. 1 in &lsquo Rich Dad Poor Dad&rsquo is the rich do not work for money. That opens your brain up, well, what the heck do they work for then? If you act like a mule, chasing the carrot -- the buck, the bonus, the paycheck, the commission, whatever you guys chase, you&rsquo re never going to ask the question: what are the rich working for? I work for assets.&rdquo
&ldquo Recently this one oil company crashed. Its stock was trading at $75 and dropped to $2 and I was ecstatic. Two dollars, from 70 bucks. When I studied the underlying analysis of it, they have huge oil reserves, they have assets in the ground, and the stock was trading at $2. So do I pay $2? No. I buy a 75-cent option to pay $2.&rdquo
&ldquo Money is the problem. It&rsquo s the money, stupid. We&rsquo re printing it , we&rsquo re printing it, we&rsquo re printing it, and it&rsquo s corrupt. And it&rsquo s toxic. Stop working for money, start acquiring assets. Use your brain.&rdquo
willisow ( Date: 26-Aug-2016 20:17) Posted:
Hey guys, there' s a video in cnbc talking about hk society are getting more open to adopting a dog than buying them..a very meaningful video n I suggest you can take a look if u r free..you will tend to perform better in investment when u indulge yourself in life than focussing your attention in stocks. Have a nice weekend :)
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Got entitled and excess rights at 6 cents cheaper. Then almost immediately can get dividend. Cool!
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Yah! Fly fly fly.
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This is overbought....but kept pushing up. Seems like trying to break out. Jia you!!!
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To correct...." Nowadays i' m with man (singular)....so I dun make him (singular) carry. A bit sissy?" . Gosh, i almost sounded like a playgirl. LOL.
pinkowl ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 15:33) Posted:
Not sure about why women are obsessed with Chanel, coz I dun. Maybe I' m not a woman. Heh. I prefer functional bags that are not so heavy...leather very heavy you know? =P
My ex-BOYs used to carry my heavy leather bags too. Those were the days. Nowadays i' m with men....so I dun make them. A bit sissy?
Yes, all the best for DBS. The nagging voice still in my head....trying to filter them out.
Unfortunately or fortunately, I only had the chance to load DBS once coz it didn' t go down further. Well well well....
sun233 ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 15:13) Posted:
What is this obsession with Chanel bags? Lately i have been noticing men carrying their girlfriends bags. So hilarious. I always have a good laugh. Must be a K pop thing. Congrats for holding DBS. Let' s hope Yellen increases rates. DBS is the biggest home loan provider in Singapore.
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Not sure about why women are obsessed with Chanel, coz I dun. Maybe I' m not a woman. Heh. I prefer functional bags that are not so heavy...leather very heavy you know? =P
My ex-BOYs used to carry my heavy leather bags too. Those were the days. Nowadays i' m with men....so I dun make them. A bit sissy?
Yes, all the best for DBS. The nagging voice still in my head....trying to filter them out.
Unfortunately or fortunately, I only had the chance to load DBS once coz it didn' t go down further. Well well well....
sun233 ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 15:13) Posted:
What is this obsession with Chanel bags? Lately i have been noticing men carrying their girlfriends bags. So hilarious. I always have a good laugh. Must be a K pop thing. Congrats for holding DBS. Let' s hope Yellen increases rates. DBS is the biggest home loan provider in Singapore.
pinkowl ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 11:11) Posted:
Thanks for sharing. Once again, very useful info. Nice ending too. Lol. And I think if she had heeded your advice and recommendation, she may be able to buy more than cosmetic, maybe a chanel bag.
I'll also have to thank you for your advice and analysis during the weekend. Otherwise, I might have listened to the nagging voice in my head and sold dbs prematurely.
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Oooo.....interesting. Can totally visualise that moment. LOL.
willisow ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 14:23) Posted:
Haha...I usually write when I' m in the toilet doing my business (sorry for being disgusting, hope u have digest your lunch :p ) hence very difficult to concentrate. Will try to write more presentable in the future :) thank you..
pinkowl ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 14:14) Posted:
You sure know your fundamental analysis well. Glad to have you here in SJ.
And great reminders to focus our time on family and friends. Sometimes, we get so carried away with money-making that we tend to put the more important things aside.
I have one request though....i love to read what you write. It' ll be great if you can break them into paras because I do face some difficulty reading a thick para. :) Pai sei.
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You sure know your fundamental analysis well. Glad to have you here in SJ.
And great reminders to focus our time on family and friends. Sometimes, we get so carried away with money-making that we tend to put the more important things aside.
I have one request though....i love to read what you write. It' ll be great if you can break them into paras because I do face some difficulty reading a thick para. :) Pai sei.
willisow ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 12:49) Posted:
Hi pinkowl, glad to hear from u again :) I' m just an ordinary person sharing some of my experience, you should thanks yourself for chosen a good investment target. It is important to maintain a neutral n calm mindset in investment, not to be too upset when prices are depressed n not over excited when it rise (bad for our heart). Spend your time meaningfully with your parent, spouse or friends, it is more important to listen to what they say than yellen of the u.s fed say bcos there are companies that do not hold debt, whether a rise or fall in interest rate have little or no impact to their fundamentals. Thus it is more important to focus on the fundamentals of a company than macro factors. Going forward just be patience it take time for a seed to grow n it will not show any changes from second to minutes. I' m confident that DBS price will hit at least sgd20 n it will go even higher than that but I can' t tell u when it is going to happen. Some may query y m I so sure that it will happen n I' m would like to share with everybody the relative method in valuation using the pe method. U can download from Internet the last 10 years DBS operating profit, divide the last ten years year end closing price with each operating profit n u will get a pe for the last ten years. Arrange these pe from small to big n take the median pe (sum up year 5 n 6 divide by 2) n multiply by the current operating profit of DBS n u will get the valuation, those who study statistic before will know what I' m talking about. this going forward if DBS operating profit remain stable we will definitely get the current valuation. Those who have no statistic back ground I shall explain a little bit more. A single year pe does not tell us anything about the valuation. When we look at the last ten years pe it represent the probability of prices moving in line with its operating profit n taking the median pe eliminate extreme mkt condition like bull n bear run n it represent the highest probability to happen again going forward. This is a very simple n practical method however it only can be used on companies that have stable operating profit record. Small companies will be very risky to use such method. Of cos the safest way is to use the cashflow n balance sheet method but that' s much more complicated n I can' t explain by just writing..u need to attend classes that :) many value investor are not willing to share the technicality of the calculation but I' m willing to do so. Just donate a fraction of your profit to the charity organization that help the stray dog n cats n they will be very grateful to us. We have 5million ppl, n if everyone just donate $1 a year it will be a significant amount to help them. I' m stingy to human but I' m very generous to dogs :) haha..
pinkowl ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 11:11) Posted:
Thanks for sharing. Once again, very useful info. Nice ending too. Lol. And I think if she had heeded your advice and recommendation, she may be able to buy more than cosmetic, maybe a chanel bag.
I'll also have to thank you for your advice and analysis during the weekend. Otherwise, I might have listened to the nagging voice in my head and sold dbs prematurely.
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Thanks for sharing. Once again, very useful info. Nice ending too. Lol. And I think if she had heeded your advice and recommendation, she may be able to buy more than cosmetic, maybe a chanel bag.
I'll also have to thank you for your advice and analysis during the weekend. Otherwise, I might have listened to the nagging voice in my head and sold dbs prematurely.
willisow ( Date: 24-Aug-2016 11:00) Posted:
Subject: Miser Difficult To Find Girlfriend
Few days back I spoke about company with strong branding n inelastic demand enjoy high gross profit margin..however if all the players enjoy the same gpm Which one should we pick then? The next selection criteria will be operating profit margin (OPM) which measure the operating efficiency or some say the management quality in controlling it' s expenses. Those who like to read Financial report as bed time story (I' m one of them), after reading couple hundred of it will find similarity between good n not so good companies. Good companies tend to be very conscious of its operating expenses (stingy potatoe) n as a result they maintain high OPM n those companies that are really good will maintain high OPM consistently year after year. Many state owned enterprise of the prc are huge but no muscle becos their OPM are low. No mention of name I have a friend who work in a prc state owned enterprise sg office, his boss will use company fund to buy the staff abalone lunch every month n his male colleagues are obliged to go ktv with the boss every fri, this is a MUST...reason being is the communist apportion yearly budget to every state own enterprise for spending n if u don' t spend away the money your budget will be cut in the following year, of cos the intention of the communist government is not to ask them go eat abalone n ktv. I have stressed the important of operating profit n let me quote an xample. Assuming both companies clock $1 gross profit, company A OPM is 90% n B is 10%, when recession set in a 10% reduction in gross profit will wipe out company B operating profit wherelse company A operating profit only drop slightly more than 10%. This is important in valuation becos when we multiply pe with earning to estimate the valuation, a drastic fall in operating profit will have it' s valuation plunge. Thus u will realize weak companies tend to have their share price fluctuate vigorously n strong company tend to be more stable. I live in one of the prc city (I' m a sporean) for past 7 years n every 3 months I go to hk for the purpose of exiting my visa, once a prc gal asked me to buy her some cosmetic as gift. Being a strong believer of high OPM I told her " money is earned to invest n not for spending, however I can give u some stock recommendation n if u make money u can then buy the cosmetic yourself" . Thereafter she never contact me anymore, tough life :(
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When I read this news, i thought it' s a bad news. Ezra price started diving way before oil dived. Better be careful, everyone.
sheerluck ( Date: 23-Aug-2016 11:09) Posted:
There are two news in this release. If one only choose to see the positive one and ignore the negative one, his/her assessment might differ from the market.
1a - discussion with note holders on notes maturing 3 Oct 2016
1b - charter extension for $45mil.
Previously when EMAS/Chiyoda win that $1.6bil contract, did EZRA with 50% stake shoot up? If not can one expect a $45mil where EZRA stake is only 20% to shoot up. And this round got this discussion with noteholder suggest tight cashflow.
You put all this together, you can still expect it to go up? You can still consider this is good (enough) news?
Ofc you can but the bigger question is does the market thinks like you?
churnw ( Date: 23-Aug-2016 09:40) Posted:
| Good news but share go down... |
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Hi Wilisow, thanks for the detailed analysis, and for the trouble of rewriting this when it didn't go thru the first time (SJ sometimes disallow posts containing certain words or links to go through).
This is very useful insights. I'll give it some thoughts. All the best to you too.
willisow ( Date: 20-Aug-2016 14:48) Posted:
Hello pinkowl, thanks for your message..an hour ago I replied your message but didn' t go through not sure whether is it becos sj blacklist me for giving recommend :p during time of turbulent there are negative news, rumour n etc affecting our investment decision. Some are valid n some are not thus we have to refer back to the financial statement n the company past performance to determine whether is it a viable investment option. Although past performance can' t guarantee the future it does tell u how the management conduct it' s business operation. Currently many investor are worried of the increased in loan provision by banks from sg, hk n prc..in evaluating a company we focus on its operating profit which is the core performance of the company..loan provision will be added back into its cashflow becos it has already been taken out from the balance sheet (by deducting loan provision from the cashflow will be a double deduction) n we should not take provision amount declared by the bank not becos that we can' t trust them is more for conservative reason..personally I always increase the provision given by the bank by 100% meaning I give 200% provision for its bad debt thus im not affected by bad news from swiber case becos it is already more than accounted for. I have explained the technical part of adjusting the cashflow n balance sheet to other member before, u can refer to history if u want to know n details. Thus by looking at the operating income before loan provision, DBS has continue to grow in q2. Only ocbc have it' s operating income fallen, some of the hk n prc banks also have minor reduction in their operating income. For the past 10 years DBS have registered growth in its operating income except for 2008 it' s operating income fell by about 5%. Comparing to the peer from the western bank that have it' s operating income shed by 50% our local bank management is prudent. The current share price of DBS represent a 30% reduction in operating income n it basically provided a very good margin of safety to your capital. You can consider to split your capital into two buy. One for the current entry n second entry at sgd12 plus which represent a 40% reduction in operating income (quite unlikely to happen but no harm to play safe). The valuation indicated will not be reflected immediately becos mkt is very pessimistic now. It may take months to years to realize n you will see result as time goes by. Try to maintain a calm mindset, cautiously optimistic, focus more on your daily life n less to the media n stock price movement. You are right not becos u think that u r right is becos u have hard fact to support your decision. Got to be patience..all the best to you:)
pinkowl ( Date: 20-Aug-2016 12:33) Posted:
I recently bought dbs. However, a voice in me is telling me to sell it due to poor economy, stagnant property market (hence reduced lendings) and potential oil and gas defaults.
The good thing about dbs is its a national bank and price has been depressed due to negative news/sentiment. And interest rate hikes can potentially benefit banks' bottomline.
I'll like to know your thoughts on this. Thanks. |
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