ShareJunction - Member Posts

x 0

There's no need to be rude. What I've told you is not an opinion but a fact. I used to work there.

gavinl ( Date: 11-Sep-2016 11:47) Posted:

Hey pink bird, I got the news from my cousin working in the HR department. Incase you want tell me from your "views" rather than facts.

gavinl ( Date: 11-Sep-2016 11:38) Posted:

Lol
FYI too pls......
SIA always did their recruitment in the cities but now in kampungs because reason is they want to make it more convenient for those who want to join. If this is not desperate then??

Btw, to recruit 1800 crew a year and train them will fatigue the training department and also the regular flying crew when the newbies go for their on job training.

You get it now??? Miss Pink???
Lo

x 0

SIA heavily recruiting from Malaysia is something that was done since more than a decade ago. FYI Pls.

gavinl ( Date: 11-Sep-2016 10:25) Posted:

Very Well Said!.

Furthermore.right now SIA is recruiting flight attandants like crazy.Think their target is about 1800 a year. So desperate until i heard they even go to Malaysia kampung to recruit..

Bad planning again, all of a sudden to recruit so many ppl,can imagine the standard of the flight crew? Regular flight crew will be over worked because of the training.Expect the already dropping SIA standard to drop further the next time i fly with them . Already their onboard entertainment system lose to Emirates and Qatar, and now their cabin crew.....

Qanghoo ( Date: 11-Sep-2016 10:07) Posted:

I think it' s not only AA, but the phenomenal emergence of the budget carriers that have eroded their mkt share. Moreover, other full-service airlines have not only copied but bettered SIA' s service offerings over time.

x 0

I believe in showing appreciation to people who spend time to benefit others. That's the minimum I can do. Have a great weekend.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 22:08) Posted:

I' m here in sj for a month n we also know each other for a month, don' t have to be so polite n thanks me everytime..informal is more casual n comfortable for me :)

Nice weekend to u n nice weekend to everyone...

pinkowl ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 20:39) Posted:

Thank you.

x 0

Thank you.

willisow ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 19:20) Posted:

Subject: Interest Rate (IR)

Interest rate has a great impact on valuation becos It serve as a discount factor for future cashflow. Investors that invest in the capital mkt faces two options, bonds n equities. both bonds n equities are like weighting machine, when ir rises bond price fall n bond yield rises n drawing funds from equities in it, as a result share price will fall. That' s the reason y everyone is so concern about yellen speech.

There are different ways we can xplain how interest rate affect valuation n I will use a more simple way, dividend yield n bond yield to share with everyone. Those who are finance savy pls bear with me bcos I need to take care of those who are not trained in finance. Investment in equities besides capital gain, dividend is another form of income. Pension fund or institution fund are long term investors n dividend yield will continue to attract their investment during bad times. however they r also attracted by bond yield that will continue to give them the cashflow when times are bad.

We can extract the 10 years sg government bond yield from public info n currently it is at 1.67%. When we look at DBS, those who bought a sgd15 n below get a minimum dividend yield of 4% (0.6/15 x 100%) assuming the full year dividend is sgd0.60. Since dividend yield is much higher than bond yield, fund managers would choose to park their money in equities. They will only switch out to bonds when dbs dividend yield equalizes or below the bond yield thus DBS share price would have to increases to sgd35.93 (sgd0.6/1.67%).

If interest rate rises n resulted the rise in 10 years sg government bond yield to 2.5%, DBS share price would have to increase to sgd24 in order to have dividend yield of 2.5% as well (assume dividend paid remain unchanged). If the 10 years sg government bond yield rises to 3% then DBS share price would b sgd20 in order to produce the same dividend yield. From here we can see that as interest rate increase from current of 1.67% to 3%, valuation decrease from sgd35.93 to sgd20.

This is a simple illustration to show y stock mkts are so sensitive to rate hike. In reality the valuation calculation is more complicated n mkt also can perceive rate hike positively like showing more confident in a stronger economy.

Thank you :)

x 0

Thank you. I' m happy for your children! They have great dad!

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 16:14) Posted:

Yup same here. But for my kids i think it is good. Will do so when i have spare. Have to give them a headstart in life so i can rest easy when my time comes to return home. The magic of compound interest will help them. Good Luck Pink.

pinkowl ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 16:00) Posted:

Agree. From then onwards, I never buy funds through insurance agent. Only through my own fingers. Am also thinking of topping up my own Special Account from Ordinary...but irreversible action is holding me back.

x 0

Agree. From then onwards, I never buy funds through insurance agent. Only through my own fingers. Am also thinking of topping up my own Special Account from Ordinary...but irreversible action is holding me back.

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:52) Posted:

Pink, first lesson here is never ever trust an insurance agent. Their pockets become heavier everytime they sell unit trusts. But at least you made some profit. I never use a single cent from my retirement accounts. After reading last Sunday Times i' m thinking of putting some cash into my children' s cpf account....still thinking. My unit trusts were very rather risky investment. 5 Arrows was the riskiest but i made the most from it. Asia pacific growth fund was more conservative. Luckily i doubled my initial investment but it took years.

Hei123, i cant really tell you if the day will come. It all depends on which units u bought. Like Pink said very hard to pour over reports. I prefer stocks.

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:35) Posted:

For me, Im still holding. I need to wait for a super super super bull to make a profit .

Do u all think the day will come? Or it' s over ..... Those time will never come back.

x 0

Same here. Sold some after many years and managed to get off with a tiny profit. Left two more funds still under water....think since 2005 or so. Luckily, had bought them many years ago, and was playing very small. Like a few k only. I will never buy funds again....easier for me to read and understand why my shares rise or drop, then to figure out why the fund rise or drop. I dun even bother reading fund' s annual report.

In addition, I was previously advised by my insurance agent to use moeny in special account to buy funds. Only managed to take them out like after 6 or 7 years with tiny profit. As compared to interest that Special Account would have paid out yearly (risk-free some more at 4 - 5%), I was getting a lot less.

sun233 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:18) Posted:

I remember i too was stung quite badly when i bought unit trusts in 1999. I had $100 k in 5 Arrows and Asia Pacific Growth Fund. It tanked to half value. I held on and paid yearly premiums to fund managers. Finally sold off in 2012 or 2013. Make a 120% profit. Key here is to hold. It will appreciate over time. Mine did. Sold off and decided not to have my money locked up for so long anymore.

Hei123 ( Date: 09-Sep-2016 15:03) Posted:

There' s another group of people who' s worst off than those who bot M1 at $4 .

Those who bot unit trusts are even worst, they have to pay management fee every year even though is badly managed and losing money. I am one of them.

M1 shareholders who bot at $4 at least know why they lost money. Those investors who buy some unit trusts and lehman bond don' t even know how their hard earned money was lost. M1 shareholders can just do averaging.

x 0

Free and willing to share are two different things. =)

willisow ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 17:50) Posted:

Not at all n u r most welcome. I' m very free, 无业游民 :D

pinkowl ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 17:30) Posted:

Thanks for taking the time to share this with us.

x 0

Who shorted Thaibev at 0.7x? LOL.

Not doubting that ThaiBev would fall. Just exposing you on your lies. No need to be so boastful.

Ophhs...not supposed to talk to ego bird...Paisei. Sayonara.

earlybird14 ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 15:42) Posted:

my position I am the one clearer than any kepo people.

What important is ThaiBev is next falling knife.

Don't believe ask the kepo woman who bought noble and all the way down.

Who shorted at 1.30? Who shorted Ezion since 1.70? Who shorted yangzijiang 1.55?

This one can hold the short till next earning.

earlybird14 ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 11:47) Posted:

Shorted already mah at 1.045, Take what action. Funny.

My next action is take profit. Now just wait for it to go lower.

Want to catch fall knife go ahead. Nobody will stop you

x 0

Thanks for taking the time to share this with us.

willisow ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 14:22) Posted:

Subject: Recession Proved Versus Recession Fool

Few days back one of our member shared an articule talking about defensive stocks n I would like to share my own view on the mentioned subject.

Some investors felt that buying defensive stocks are best to hedge against economic downturn becos their earnings are stable n not affected by the economic cycle. Example of defensive stocks included, telco, public transport, hospital, milk powder, firm that provide funeral service, military arm manufacturer n etc. to summaries are product/services of inelastic demand.

However buying a defensive stock or any other stock can have devastating effect if the price purchased is above its valuation. One good xample is M1, all the while it' s valuation stood at sgd2 plus but it' s price was trading at sgd4 about one year ago. Those who bought at a high price n not able to escape from its crash became a recession fool (fool by recession proved).

Thus, there is no stock that can be recession proved. To safeguard our capital we will have to buy below the valuation n with an adequate margin of safety. Different company from different industry will command different magnitude of safety margin, even companies of the same industry can command different safety margin. Example, local telco need 10%, prc telco 20%, local n hk big domestic bank 30%, oil n gas minimum 50%, airline minimum 50% n etc. we will only be able to identify these margin of safety after we have scrutinized their financial report. I had made a very silly mistake when I bought two companies of the same industry n I will share it with everyone n hope that such mistake will not be repeated by anybody.

about one year ago I bought both Macau casino companies named galaxy entertainment n sjm holding (owned by 何鸿森 , the god of gamble of Macau 赌神 ). I have read extensively of galaxy entertainment last 10 years of financial report n confidently work out its valuation, where else for sjm holding I have briefly went through its financial report due to assuming that they are from the same industry n thus should not have much different in the way they operate.

My first purchased for galaxy fetched a lucrative return of close to 40% within one month n it' s valuation was realized. Second purchased earned a return of about 25% n I have also shared my third purchase with everyone recently n currently sitting on a slight profit. Thus galaxy earned me a return of close to 70% within one year n that' s made me danced happily at home.

Thinking that my investment for sjm will yield the same result n everyday imagined that I' m going to count money until my hand tired, sjm lowest price plunged about 30% below my purchased price. As both galaxy n sjm are good companies with strong balance sheet, it was unlikely that sjm performance was so far off from galaxy n I refer back to its financial report n found that I had made a stupid mistake which shouldn' t have made in the first place.

casino income are breakdown into gaming n non gaming revenue n gaming revenue account for about 90% of the total revenue. Thus when our government said our casino are integrated resort n not purely casino, is not true but politically they have to assure the citizen. Within the gaming revenue it further breakdown into mass mkt n VIP. For galaxy it is a 50/50 split n thus I assumed sjm to be the same n did not read the financial report in detail. In reality, sjm was 70% to VIP becos apart from table game it offered satellite betting for VIP without having to come to Macau. As the prc economy slow down n the communists are also going after corruption, sjm operating earning fell by 60% as compared to galaxy of only 50% n my margin of safety was also 50% for both galaxy n sjm. After realizing my mistake I did two averaging n now I' m still sitting at 10% loss. Although it was a silly mistake, it is not devastating mistake becos it' s new casino is completing n going to open in 2h of next year which will increase their hotel room capacity by 5 times, thus it will have positive effect to its earning n valuation will rise. Thus in investment it is totally not beneficial to jump to conclusion or assume the outcome simply by our own thoughts n not via the concrete info from the financial reports. Thank you :)

x 0

Congrats! Up close to 6% today.

willisow ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 15:55) Posted:

Hi guys,

Just checked galaxy entertainment n up by 4.5% to hkd28.60. As mentioned before my valuation is hkd30, if anyone has bought u may want to pay more attention to it just in case it realize in coming days..if it realised the valuation it will be the shortest time frame that I had experience bcos I only bought it for less than 3 weeks. Cry like baby...

willisow ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 14:22) Posted:

Subject: Recession Proved Versus Recession Fool

Few days back one of our member shared an articule talking about defensive stocks n I would like to share my own view on the mentioned subject.

Some investors felt that buying defensive stocks are best to hedge against economic downturn becos their earnings are stable n not affected by the economic cycle. Example of defensive stocks included, telco, public transport, hospital, milk powder, firm that provide funeral service, military arm manufacturer n etc. to summaries are product/services of inelastic demand.

However buying a defensive stock or any other stock can have devastating effect if the price purchased is above its valuation. One good xample is M1, all the while it' s valuation stood at sgd2 plus but it' s price was trading at sgd4 about one year ago. Those who bought at a high price n not able to escape from its crash became a recession fool (fool by recession proved).

Thus, there is no stock that can be recession proved. To safeguard our capital we will have to buy below the valuation n with an adequate margin of safety. Different company from different industry will command different magnitude of safety margin, even companies of the same industry can command different safety margin. Example, local telco need 10%, prc telco 20%, local n hk big domestic bank 30%, oil n gas minimum 50%, airline minimum 50% n etc. we will only be able to identify these margin of safety after we have scrutinized their financial report. I had made a very silly mistake when I bought two companies of the same industry n I will share it with everyone n hope that such mistake will not be repeated by anybody.

about one year ago I bought both Macau casino companies named galaxy entertainment n sjm holding (owned by 何鸿森 , the god of gamble of Macau 赌神 ). I have read extensively of galaxy entertainment last 10 years of financial report n confidently work out its valuation, where else for sjm holding I have briefly went through its financial report due to assuming that they are from the same industry n thus should not have much different in the way they operate.

My first purchased for galaxy fetched a lucrative return of close to 40% within one month n it' s valuation was realized. Second purchased earned a return of about 25% n I have also shared my third purchase with everyone recently n currently sitting on a slight profit. Thus galaxy earned me a return of close to 70% within one year n that' s made me danced happily at home.

Thinking that my investment for sjm will yield the same result n everyday imagined that I' m going to count money until my hand tired, sjm lowest price plunged about 30% below my purchased price. As both galaxy n sjm are good companies with strong balance sheet, it was unlikely that sjm performance was so far off from galaxy n I refer back to its financial report n found that I had made a stupid mistake which shouldn' t have made in the first place.

casino income are breakdown into gaming n non gaming revenue n gaming revenue account for about 90% of the total revenue. Thus when our government said our casino are integrated resort n not purely casino, is not true but politically they have to assure the citizen. Within the gaming revenue it further breakdown into mass mkt n VIP. For galaxy it is a 50/50 split n thus I assumed sjm to be the same n did not read the financial report in detail. In reality, sjm was 70% to VIP becos apart from table game it offered satellite betting for VIP without having to come to Macau. As the prc economy slow down n the communists are also going after corruption, sjm operating earning fell by 60% as compared to galaxy of only 50% n my margin of safety was also 50% for both galaxy n sjm. After realizing my mistake I did two averaging n now I' m still sitting at 10% loss. Although it was a silly mistake, it is not devastating mistake becos it' s new casino is completing n going to open in 2h of next year which will increase their hotel room capacity by 5 times, thus it will have positive effect to its earning n valuation will rise. Thus in investment it is totally not beneficial to jump to conclusion or assume the outcome simply by our own thoughts n not via the concrete info from the financial reports. Thank you :)

x 0

So strange. Price never traded at 1.045 on the day the bird shorted on 25 Aug - highest was 1.005. Ha ha....so funny.

x 0

No wonder yesterday price dropped so much. Was trying to look for news....now I see.

Will scoop when it drops - collect for long term.

sun233 ( Date: 08-Sep-2016 07:23) Posted:

Time to buy ............soon.

Singapore Airlines | Sell

Target price: S$9.99

Sept 7 close: S$10.67

Citi Research.

We have slashed our estimates significantly this year and next, and are now 5-12 per cent below FY17/18 consensus. While we like the reintroduction of the non-stop San Francisco route this October, the competitive climate remains challenging particularly for premium travel/yield. At 23 times 2017E price-to-earnings, the shares remain expensive in our view, and we reiterate our sell recommendation. Given better leisure trends versus weak business/premium demand, we continue to prefer the low cost carriers like AirAsia and IndiGo to Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific. Within developed Asia, we prefer SATS.

x 0

Sorry, digress a bit. Value the time when your doggie craves for drumstick or delicious human food. Have a good celebration and take photos and videos of the happiness in her eyes. Wanted to say more, but rather be positive. Hope you know what I mean. ☺

willisow ( Date: 05-Sep-2016 13:36) Posted:

Not that I' m humble, I just telling the truth, I really can' t predict the share price movement.

At times I also like to show off by telling my dog I made money in stock again n let her admire me :p

But all she care is the chicken drumstick that I bought to celebrate with her, sigh :(

pinkowl ( Date: 05-Sep-2016 13:02) Posted:

I like humble people.

x 0

I like humble people.

willisow ( Date: 05-Sep-2016 13:01) Posted:

Haha..I can' t predict the share price movement..just keep a neutral mindset everyday n we will see result as time goes by..let nature take it course n we will be happy everyday :)

Thanks..

pinkowl ( Date: 05-Sep-2016 12:36) Posted:

Ok...i' ll nibble SIA at opportune time. Love to hold a stock that I can hold and keep if (I want to). Thanks again and huat huat to you. DBS flying off as per your advice. =)

x 0

Ok...i' ll nibble SIA at opportune time. Love to hold a stock that I can hold and keep if (I want to). Thanks again and huat huat to you. DBS flying off as per your advice. =)

willisow ( Date: 05-Sep-2016 09:06) Posted:

You can still buy sia if u want to becos it is still a good company with resilient track records n strong branding as compared to its peer. It' s has the lowest debt ratio among its peer of just 11% (prc airline debt is more than 100% of its equity). It' s cash cover almost 3 times it' s total borrowing enabling them to easily meet their financial obligation even during bad time. Overal it is a well run entity. Although personally I preferred Cathay pacific becos I like the food they served as compared to sia, I will still choose sia when come to investment becos it is a better option when compared to others :)

The only thing is to buy at a steep discount from its valuation n u will be fine as time goes by. Buying into budget airline will also face the same situation when economy slow becos the nature of airline industry is volatile, not just sia alone.

Best of luck to u n Huat :)

Thank you...

pinkowl ( Date: 04-Sep-2016 22:59) Posted:

Noted with thanks, willisow. Your points are valid. Seems like I may have to look at budget airline instead.

Thanks again. You are so kind. Sure will have good karma. 😄

x 0

Congrats, everyone! Good jump today. Hope this is the start of green green day for SGX.

x 0

Noted with thanks, willisow. Your points are valid. Seems like I may have to look at budget airline instead.

Thanks again. You are so kind. Sure will have good karma. 😄

willisow ( Date: 04-Sep-2016 22:35) Posted:

Before I wrote to u I took a look at my spreadsheet, my valuation as at Q1 result (latest result) is sgd12.70..sgd8 plus is the preferred entry price..

Tourisim is a very income sensitive demand. When economy is slow corporate client will cut back their travel or travel economy instead of business class. Consumer will also cut back their number of holiday per year or choose to go to those nearer destination for their holiday. Thus a slow economy will affect the number of flights n the quality of the customer taking these flights.

Although airline industry faces inelastic demand just like telco however they are difference in the sense that airline industry earn their revenue through per ticket basis (every new trip consumer can choose to travel with different airline by comparing their prices). Where else consumer in the telco industry just continue to pay their monthly subscription to their existing operator, in addition becos the subscription amount is not significant as compared to an air ticket thus consumer r less price sensitive in the telco industry.

Thirdly becos consumer can compared prices with different airline each time they travel, operator will compete with each other on pricing n this is bad for inelastic demand becos it' s revenue can b affected significantly. Although sia n Cathay pacific tend to price their ticket with premium due to their strong branding as compared to other airline, it will still present a certain degree of impact to their bottom line.

Sia Q1 result showed that it' s operating profit continue to grow but it' s CEO commented " to prepare for tough time ahead" ..as for Cathay pacific it' s half year result showed deteriotion in its operating earning due to stiff competition in the prc mkt. thus it is important to be watchful to the performance of other airline becos it will tell us more about the industry. although oil price have fallen, airline will still be affected if the economy continue to slow. Thus if the result for the coming quarters become soft, valuation can be adjusted downward n past magnitude of decline can happen again..

Becos the nature of the industry is volatile it is better to safeguard our capital by taking a thick margin of safety. When a company operating profit is volatile it' s share price will also tend to follow, do be careful..

Thank you :)

pinkowl ( Date: 04-Sep-2016 20:41) Posted:

Hi Willisow, thanks for looking out for me. I appreciate it and will definitely keep your words in mind. 😊

Am interested in airline because of plunging oil prices that took place only since mid 2014. After factoring lower fuel expenses, would your valuation be the same? Thanks.

x 0

Hi Willisow, thanks for looking out for me. I appreciate it and will definitely keep your words in mind. 😊

Am interested in airline because of plunging oil prices that took place only since mid 2014. After factoring lower fuel expenses, would your valuation be the same? Thanks.

willisow ( Date: 04-Sep-2016 19:13) Posted:

Hi pinkowl,

I happened to browse the sia forum n saw that u intend to buy into sia..I have no mean to be busy body but I just want to cautious u that airline industry is a very volatile trade. Sia operating profit plunged by more than 50% in 2010 n 30% in 2013. Thus it is important to give ourselves a deep buffer for protection, based on historical performance it is only safe to enter at sgd8 plus..

However if u have your own investment thought in mind, u can just ignore what I just said..all the best to u.

Thank you :)

x 0

Lao sai non-stop. Hopefully will stay above 2800....if not, then 2600 liao.