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Latest Posts By HVRRVH - Elite      About HVRRVH
First   < Newer   201-220 of 2362   Older>   Last  

29-Aug-2025 10:25 Lendlease Reit   /   Lendlease Global REIT       Go to Message
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I have taken the opportunity of the recent uptrend to cut some holding. Recently the manager/sponsor sold 15,000,000 shares. They just don' t like their own shares. I don' t even bother to calculate what' s their sale price per share anymore. 

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/QJAIWC79YSVGXLHU/7e0f5bfcd8d9d41414e060ee15f82ec45369654dddaa663c55ba915ba8620d6e
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28-Aug-2025 21:19 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/corporate-moves/yangzijiang-maritime-prepares-sail

Old Ren just gave a long interview to TheEdge, rather comprehensive but I think we only interested in the following for the time being: 

1) Post Spin share price - He said the share price could move up to $1.2 before spin off and post spin, YZJF and YZJM should trade at $0.60 each at the start
2) Dividend policy of 40% payout to stay for YZJM
3) YZJF may face sell down post spin off as China property sector yet to recover
4) Old Ren will helm YZJM but won' t abandon YZJF as he is the biggest shareholder
5) Listing of YZJM may be in Novmember 
6) YZJM has 84 vessels in its investment portfolio, investment value worth US$1 billion
7) YZJM will expand its portfolio with clean energy vessels
8) There will be a rights issue that price attractively so existing shareholders can benefit, he will underwrite the rights issue - Likely to take place not long after YZJM' s listing. Together with $250m placement, looking to raise $150m through rights issue. 

For point 8, I think it is aim at not diluting the current shareholders too much. If this $400m can generate at least 10% ROI, I guess it will be a good move as NAV will take care of itself with recurring profits. We are more concern about earning growth, EPS, dividend and PE. 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 26-Aug-2025 22:18) Posted:

YZJS also injected fresh fund through convertible bonds prior to the YZJF spin off in Apr 2022.  YZJS issued convertible bonds at $1.345 to EDBI and AWI and received SGD$50m. The bonds were mandatory convertible in 12 months with 6 months lock up period. Based on various data at that time, the bond holders were eligible for shares in YZJF post spin. Available information showed that YZJF post spin outstanding shares was 3.923,415,000 [1.4.22 SGX announcement on major disposal] and FY22 annual report showed share counts of 3,967,939,000. So it is likely that shares were added due to the foregoing. The dilution to YZJF NAV of $1.08 was about 1.12% assuming the $50m were injected to YZJS and not YZJF. Now, YZJF will also inject fresh fund into YZJM in conjunction with the spin off, to the tune of $250m. This is a much bigger amount than $50m when YZJF spin off from YZJS. This $250m has raise the question of heavy dilution to existing shareholders and as of now, we have yet to hear from managment for any clarification. Probably they will address it prior or during EGM. It is likely that YZJM already know where to deploy the potential $250m, they wouldn' t magically come up with the figure just like that. It is also likely that they have sound out potential investors and received certain respond for them to put ou the $250m figure. In addition to my previos post, if market see potential high growth, it may push the share price up so let' s wait and find out. 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 18-Aug-2025 15:16) Posted:

ok I also sent in my query. Let' s see what' s next. 

Ref: The Proposed dilution of equity interest in YZJ Maritime arising from the Proposed Placement
 
a) Status of my holding: Individual
b) Full name: 
c) NRIC: 
d) Email address:
 
It is mentioned in the circular that, among other things, the proposed private share placement will dilute YZJF&rsquo s equity interest in YZJM by at least 20% or more. As a current YZJF shareholder, I am concerned that this would imply that a very steep discount would be given to the subscribers of placement shares, to the tune of even 50% of post spin YZJM&rsquo s NAV as follows: 
 
Placement with 20% dilution 
New shares issued: 3.52b x 20% / 1-20% = 880m placement shares
Placement amount : $250M
Implied placement price: 250M / 880m =0.284 per share. 
 
Even though the price discovery of YZJM will only be known upon listing post spin off, based on the information from the circular where it was stated that the Remaining Group&rsquo s NAV is expected to be $0.54 post spin, it is estimated that YZJM&rsquo s post spin NAV per share will be around $0.58 [$0.54 + $0.57 = $1.11 as per 1H25&rsquo s NAV]. The imply placement price of $0.284 seems detrimental to the existing shareholders. Accordingly, I would appreciate it that the company can quickly clarify the matter to all shareholders through appropriate channel of communications such as SGX announcement. 
 
As an existing shareholder, I can accept dilution in relation to private share placement and I am just seeking clarification, as from the circular, it also appears that the dilution is pertaining to YZJF&rsquo s equity interest becoming 0% post placement and distribution. Is the 20% dilution pertaining to only YZJF' s equity interest as it would hold 0% of YZJM post placement and spin off or applies to all existing shareholders?

Thank you and looking forward to a clarification by the company soonest. 
 
Regards,


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28-Aug-2025 09:31 Geo Energy Res   /   Black Gold Industry Discussion       Go to Message
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Don' t have to put it this way lah. Mine is of course among the 3.6m. I do have much bigger holding in other share but I would never proclaim to be a big player or anything. I share my understanding of information and act upon them and it is up to individuals to decide their own actions. I think that' s how a forum should work. 

pursuer76      ( Date: 28-Aug-2025 09:21) Posted:

Pre opening has 3.6m shares transacted. All yours? Wow!

HVRRVH      ( Date: 28-Aug-2025 09:05) Posted:

Sold all at pre open matching. The acquisition could still turn up as a good deal, as it could supplement Geo' s core business but the price is too steep. 


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28-Aug-2025 09:05 Geo Energy Res   /   Black Gold Industry Discussion       Go to Message
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Sold all at pre open matching. The acquisition could still turn up as a good deal, as it could supplement Geo' s core business but the price is too steep. 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 27-Aug-2025 21:57) Posted:

Crazy! USD$127m to buy 2 companies with combined annual profits of USD$7.4m and NTA of USD$26.4m? That' s not all, as Geo only acquiring 51% of the 2 companies, the relevant annual profit and NTA is USD$4m and USD$13.5m only. In return, Mr Melati alone will receive USD$79m worth of new shares! His immeidate families will receive seperate amount of cash, shares and receivable too. The dilution to EPS is $0.032 to $0.0307 and NAV from $0.4888 to $0.3977. The relevant announcement mentioned that there will be an independent valuer report, however, with EPS and NTA as per documented, any value above NTA is at best intangible value such as future possible earning etc. As a shareholder I will be watching the development closely. 

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27-Aug-2025 21:57 Geo Energy Res   /   Black Gold Industry Discussion       Go to Message
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Crazy! USD$127m to buy 2 companies with combined annual profits of USD$7.4m and NTA of USD$26.4m? That' s not all, as Geo only acquiring 51% of the 2 companies, the relevant annual profit and NTA is USD$4m and USD$13.5m only. In return, Mr Melati alone will receive USD$79m worth of new shares! His immeidate families will receive seperate amount of cash, shares and receivable too. The dilution to EPS is $0.032 to $0.0307 and NAV from $0.4888 to $0.3977. The relevant announcement mentioned that there will be an independent valuer report, however, with EPS and NTA as per documented, any value above NTA is at best intangible value such as future possible earning etc. As a shareholder I will be watching the development closely. 
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27-Aug-2025 14:44 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Yes

ysh2006      ( Date: 27-Aug-2025 14:17) Posted:

So which mean $1.11 only, based on NAV ? YZJFH reaching soon loh...

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27-Aug-2025 12:17 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Everyone has their own guesses but nobody will openly say they know or share their guesses, as nobody know for sure. What we know is the post spin NAV per share for YZJF and YZJM is about $0.54 and $0.57 respectively but like pastime said, market could value it entirely differently and do not consider NAV at all. 

ysh2006      ( Date: 27-Aug-2025 05:30) Posted:

Mr HVRRVH thanks for the analysing ,may know can roughly guess what is the pricing for YZJ M and YZJFH after spin off market trading ? Many thanks.

HVRRVH      ( Date: 26-Aug-2025 22:01) Posted:

ETL should be coming soon. Using previous case of YZJS to YZJF, the combined NAV pre spin at that time was about $1.95 [as of 20.4.22], post spin YZJF&rsquo s NAV was $1.08 and YZJS was about $0.86 respectively [as at 20.04.22]. First day trading on 28.4.22 saw YZJF open $0.69 and closed $0.545 whereas YZJS traded on XE day [25.4.22] open $0.8 closed $0.96. YZJF subsequently traded as low as $0.285 in months to come despite high NAV of $1.08 before turning the corner in July 2024 and more profoundly from Sept 2024 and traded as high as $1.06 in Aug 2025, esp today with sudden matched up at closed with almost half of today' s total volume. As for YZJS, it is trading at almost $3 now with NAV of $1.255. As far as spin off metrics are concerned, YZJF has $1.11 NAV now and post spin it is expected to have NAVs of $0.54 and $0.57 respectively for YZJF and YZJM. The NAV per share of YZJM is expected to drop further depending on the private placement price [a 20% dilution would see its NAV dip to $0.51 level]. In view of the foregoing, if market price both the entities based on NAVs then it would not be good news post spin, as I don' t see why would the market give premium to NAVs at early days of trading. Having said so,  YZJS&rsquo s rerating ($0.96 &rarr $3)  wasn&rsquo t just a NAV recovery&mdash it was driven by  record profits, USD 8.5B order book, and green shipping leadership. YZJF&rsquo s rebound from $0.285 &rarr $1.06 was due to  operational fixes: reducing China debt exposure, pivoting to Southeast Asia, and launching high-margin maritime businesses. From both cases, NAV is just a floor and what drive the share price is earing growth. With that, long holders who wish to hold on to both YZJF and YZJM can be hopeful, for starter, YZJF would further reduce its China DI to below 20% of AUM and they have taken step to invest actively in SMEs being anchor investor of the 100m fund with ICH. For YZJM, past 3 years we have seen the maritime businesses growing leap and bound by more than 100% so if this rate of growth keep up, it is likely that market would give at least 10x PE or more than 1x PB. We still can gauge rougly how the market would price YZJF and YZJM, if YZJF continue to trend up above current NAV, it is a good sign and likely that market will be generous in its pricing, perhaps both entities will trade at least at NAVs level. If today' s price is the peak or at most goes up to just a tad below NAV, then I don' t think market will accord high premium be it base on PE or PB. 



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26-Aug-2025 22:18 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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YZJS also injected fresh fund through convertible bonds prior to the YZJF spin off in Apr 2022.  YZJS issued convertible bonds at $1.345 to EDBI and AWI and received SGD$50m. The bonds were mandatory convertible in 12 months with 6 months lock up period. Based on various data at that time, the bond holders were eligible for shares in YZJF post spin. Available information showed that YZJF post spin outstanding shares was 3.923,415,000 [1.4.22 SGX announcement on major disposal] and FY22 annual report showed share counts of 3,967,939,000. So it is likely that shares were added due to the foregoing. The dilution to YZJF NAV of $1.08 was about 1.12% assuming the $50m were injected to YZJS and not YZJF. Now, YZJF will also inject fresh fund into YZJM in conjunction with the spin off, to the tune of $250m. This is a much bigger amount than $50m when YZJF spin off from YZJS. This $250m has raise the question of heavy dilution to existing shareholders and as of now, we have yet to hear from managment for any clarification. Probably they will address it prior or during EGM. It is likely that YZJM already know where to deploy the potential $250m, they wouldn' t magically come up with the figure just like that. It is also likely that they have sound out potential investors and received certain respond for them to put ou the $250m figure. In addition to my previos post, if market see potential high growth, it may push the share price up so let' s wait and find out. 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 18-Aug-2025 15:16) Posted:

ok I also sent in my query. Let' s see what' s next. 

Ref: The Proposed dilution of equity interest in YZJ Maritime arising from the Proposed Placement
 
a) Status of my holding: Individual
b) Full name: 
c) NRIC: 
d) Email address:
 
It is mentioned in the circular that, among other things, the proposed private share placement will dilute YZJF&rsquo s equity interest in YZJM by at least 20% or more. As a current YZJF shareholder, I am concerned that this would imply that a very steep discount would be given to the subscribers of placement shares, to the tune of even 50% of post spin YZJM&rsquo s NAV as follows: 
 
Placement with 20% dilution 
New shares issued: 3.52b x 20% / 1-20% = 880m placement shares
Placement amount : $250M
Implied placement price: 250M / 880m =0.284 per share. 
 
Even though the price discovery of YZJM will only be known upon listing post spin off, based on the information from the circular where it was stated that the Remaining Group&rsquo s NAV is expected to be $0.54 post spin, it is estimated that YZJM&rsquo s post spin NAV per share will be around $0.58 [$0.54 + $0.57 = $1.11 as per 1H25&rsquo s NAV]. The imply placement price of $0.284 seems detrimental to the existing shareholders. Accordingly, I would appreciate it that the company can quickly clarify the matter to all shareholders through appropriate channel of communications such as SGX announcement. 
 
As an existing shareholder, I can accept dilution in relation to private share placement and I am just seeking clarification, as from the circular, it also appears that the dilution is pertaining to YZJF&rsquo s equity interest becoming 0% post placement and distribution. Is the 20% dilution pertaining to only YZJF' s equity interest as it would hold 0% of YZJM post placement and spin off or applies to all existing shareholders?

Thank you and looking forward to a clarification by the company soonest. 
 
Regards,

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26-Aug-2025 22:01 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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ETL should be coming soon. Using previous case of YZJS to YZJF, the combined NAV pre spin at that time was about $1.95 [as of 20.4.22], post spin YZJF&rsquo s NAV was $1.08 and YZJS was about $0.86 respectively [as at 20.04.22]. First day trading on 28.4.22 saw YZJF open $0.69 and closed $0.545 whereas YZJS traded on XE day [25.4.22] open $0.8 closed $0.96. YZJF subsequently traded as low as $0.285 in months to come despite high NAV of $1.08 before turning the corner in July 2024 and more profoundly from Sept 2024 and traded as high as $1.06 in Aug 2025, esp today with sudden matched up at closed with almost half of today' s total volume. As for YZJS, it is trading at almost $3 now with NAV of $1.255. As far as spin off metrics are concerned, YZJF has $1.11 NAV now and post spin it is expected to have NAVs of $0.54 and $0.57 respectively for YZJF and YZJM. The NAV per share of YZJM is expected to drop further depending on the private placement price [a 20% dilution would see its NAV dip to $0.51 level]. In view of the foregoing, if market price both the entities based on NAVs then it would not be good news post spin, as I don' t see why would the market give premium to NAVs at early days of trading. Having said so,  YZJS&rsquo s rerating ($0.96 &rarr $3)  wasn&rsquo t just a NAV recovery&mdash it was driven by  record profits, USD 8.5B order book, and green shipping leadership. YZJF&rsquo s rebound from $0.285 &rarr $1.06 was due to  operational fixes: reducing China debt exposure, pivoting to Southeast Asia, and launching high-margin maritime businesses. From both cases, NAV is just a floor and what drive the share price is earing growth. With that, long holders who wish to hold on to both YZJF and YZJM can be hopeful, for starter, YZJF would further reduce its China DI to below 20% of AUM and they have taken step to invest actively in SMEs being anchor investor of the 100m fund with ICH. For YZJM, past 3 years we have seen the maritime businesses growing leap and bound by more than 100% so if this rate of growth keep up, it is likely that market would give at least 10x PE or more than 1x PB. We still can gauge rougly how the market would price YZJF and YZJM, if YZJF continue to trend up above current NAV, it is a good sign and likely that market will be generous in its pricing, perhaps both entities will trade at least at NAVs level. If today' s price is the peak or at most goes up to just a tad below NAV, then I don' t think market will accord high premium be it base on PE or PB. 

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22-Aug-2025 11:26 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Price moving between $1.02 and $1.06, with heavy actions between $1.03 and $1.05. I think you are right. Anyway if it keep trading above $1 should be ok, once ETL and EGM over, likely to move further up touching the combined NAV. Post spin bound to have heavy volatility with price recovery process for the 2 companies. YZJF post spin will be aggressively reduce its DI to below 20% within a year [read somewhere, sure of the 20% but not too certain about the timeline], it would start investing in SMEs from Sep 25 with listing those SMEs in mind with its 100m venture with ICH. It would also shift focus to private equity and South East Asian markets. So, it seems not just YZJM, even YZJF is embarkig on new frontier so both companies post spin could yet to offer tremendous growth potentials. Personally, I already prepared my spreadsheet to include YZJM in anticipation to receive its shares for tracking purpose. Just like 1 and 1 distribution in specie, hopefully 1 day we could also see 1 and 1 in term of share price for YZJF and YZJM post spin. 

pkli899      ( Date: 20-Aug-2025 13:47) Posted:

Maybe it is just accumulation in progress.
I over read.  cool

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22-Aug-2025 11:09 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Problem is the projected returns is not a sure thing, even if confident level is 99%. On the other hand, the discount is real and once given, like it or not, investors will take into account the effect on NAV in this case. The saving grace is that like you said, old Ren is the biggest shareholder so it seems unlikely he would dilute his equity interest too much. We shall see. 

pasttime      ( Date: 21-Aug-2025 07:52) Posted:

suppose someone invest 250m and is able to get a return towards 1000m in few years time, is the 250m good or bad investment.
ren has a bigger percentage share then most shareholders. so the effect on him should be bigger.
is he likely to take a stone and crash his own feet?

nta is useful whena  company belly up or face takeover. neither of these are happening in the near future.

rethink about it. yes sure as shareholders like to get as much as possible. 

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22-Aug-2025 10:50 Boustead   /   Boustead on the move now       Go to Message
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Already indicated taking scrip thru investors.sgx.com. Seemless process like last year don' t have to post back the hard copy form. Last year I mentioned they offer scrip probably to boost the total shares base with a view of spinning off a reit. This year they offer scrip again so just take more so when they already announced plan to spin off a reit. They also clever not to offer scrip for interim dividend as the quantum usually is smaller and not worth the admin work and not cost effective. This is an investors friendly company, totoal scrip issue will be rounded up to the nearest whole unit instead of rounding down like some reits. It may seems trivial but still, they choose to round up when they can totally disregard the fractional unit. 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 12-Aug-2025 18:26) Posted:

Yup. Either half of 3/4 to the nearest round. Won' t take all. If price come below $1.45 can buy out right if not happy with current holding size. 

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18-Aug-2025 21:41 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/86PEZANBKGHN441D/e22f162e5eead666e41e4b59a5f542edec8a8caaa970d44b2c786591c564c942

Para 2 of the quoted post below refers. Indeed, YZJF has now team up with Vincent again thru his company ICH! Just when investors thought old Ren will focus on the soon to be YZJM and somehow YZJF will be left on its own, he is now telling the investing community that YZJF has 100m to invest along with ICH. Let' s see how the market respond tomorrow. 

HVRRVH      ( Date: 08-Dec-2023 09:53) Posted:

Acid test coming in 3 months time with the full year results and dividend declaration. Consensus from this forum is between 2.5 - 3.5 cents dividend with some outliers as high as 3.8 cents but looking at the relentless selling, I think we have to temper our expectation a bit. Granted that some funds seems dont have the mandate and must sell regardless of prices, the question is also why no big buyers coming in yet?   Very obviously, funds without mandate to hold the shares must get rid of their free shares from the spin off, they had literally jump and throw whenenver prices hit 35 previously and more recently, 33 and 32 levels. Besides SBB, we can safely assume there are some big buyers absolving these big sells too all this while but aggresiveness of selling far outweight the buying. Now we must understand those funds without mandate they couldn' t care whether they are right or wrong, they just have to sell whenever the market price is ' acceptable' to them. With all metrics pointing to the very undervalue nature of the stock, if full year results meet or above expectation coupled with a realistic and positive guidance, the share price will move north with big convicted buyers coming into the market. Perhaps they have already buying on ' testing' water basis, if not, SBB alone can' t be holding the share price at current level. 

Another thing is maybe market still don' t like DI take up 50% of PRC investment portfolio. This DI is a drag at the current moment albeit brining in high profits in the past. With the progress of the time, this porportion will drop when the overall portfolio consists of 50% PRC and 50% outside PRC. This will take time but the company is moving toward the right direction. They have secured means of moving money easily outside PRC thru   qualified domestic partnership program and liquidity pool scheme and what' s not. Having said that, they also must find a place to place the funds after the funds are moved out of PRC. This is where old Ren will come into play when taking over in April. From the vibes based on the recent company briefing, it seems that it is a strategised move to let Vincent go. So that there will be no conflict of interest when Vincent' s company and YZJF collaborate in the future. We must take note that Vincent has big personal stake in YZJF as well as thru IHC, a compamy he controlled/closely associated with. View in this light, the resignation can even be seen as a positive development. 

In a nutshell, let' s temper the expectation of dividend a bit, anything above 2.5 cents is acceptable for the coming one. Next, the company needs to make all the right noise and move. Too much money in hands now, they have to find a way to deploy them since DI is not a way going forward. Thought it is not clear to us, the management, on the the other hand, should know exactly what and who are the funds selling now and how much more they have to do it. We don' t have a choice, the current time is ' YZJF winter'   but on the balance of things, from their SBB alone and aggressiveness in moving fund outside PRC, the mangement is slowly preparing for the eventual spring that has to arrive. What we do know is in this harsh winter time, we are safe and sound with enough provision even if this winter is going to last a bit longer. 

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18-Aug-2025 15:16 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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ok I also sent in my query. Let' s see what' s next. 

Ref: The Proposed dilution of equity interest in YZJ Maritime arising from the Proposed Placement
 
a) Status of my holding: Individual
b) Full name: 
c) NRIC: 
d) Email address:
 
It is mentioned in the circular that, among other things, the proposed private share placement will dilute YZJF&rsquo s equity interest in YZJM by at least 20% or more. As a current YZJF shareholder, I am concerned that this would imply that a very steep discount would be given to the subscribers of placement shares, to the tune of even 50% of post spin YZJM&rsquo s NAV as follows: 
 
Placement with 20% dilution 
New shares issued: 3.52b x 20% / 1-20% = 880m placement shares
Placement amount : $250M
Implied placement price: 250M / 880m =0.284 per share. 
 
Even though the price discovery of YZJM will only be known upon listing post spin off, based on the information from the circular where it was stated that the Remaining Group&rsquo s NAV is expected to be $0.54 post spin, it is estimated that YZJM&rsquo s post spin NAV per share will be around $0.58 [$0.54 + $0.57 = $1.11 as per 1H25&rsquo s NAV]. The imply placement price of $0.284 seems detrimental to the existing shareholders. Accordingly, I would appreciate it that the company can quickly clarify the matter to all shareholders through appropriate channel of communications such as SGX announcement. 
 
As an existing shareholder, I can accept dilution in relation to private share placement and I am just seeking clarification, as from the circular, it also appears that the dilution is pertaining to YZJF&rsquo s equity interest becoming 0% post placement and distribution. Is the 20% dilution pertaining to only YZJF' s equity interest as it would hold 0% of YZJM post placement and spin off or applies to all existing shareholders?

Thank you and looking forward to a clarification by the company soonest. 
 
Regards,
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18-Aug-2025 11:25 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Hard copy Proxy Form and Notice of EGM received. Price actions wise $1.04 seems to provide strong support with resistance at $1.06. For a start post spin just aim for the combined prices to above the combined NAVs. Hopefully the management will clarify the dilution issue soonest. Lets the count down to EGM begins, let?s go!
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18-Aug-2025 10:00 CapLand India T   /   AREIT India       Go to Message
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This is getting too much, when the assets are performing, in this case, Data Centres, the reit/trust hand over it in a plater to the sponsor! On the other hands, in general, how many times we see sponsors dump their subpar assets to the retis/trusts? I have to review my thesis on reits/trusts investments seriously, esp since 1 big down cycle in 2020 as well as interest rates cycle prove that invest in ' normal' companies can do much better. Besides, there are no lack of good yield companies out there which are non reits/trusts. 
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16-Aug-2025 15:37 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Working backward using 7.2%, you have assumed the placement price to be $0.94 pre spin or $0.47 post spin . If this is the case, I think existing holders is ok cos 7.2% dilution is only related to voting power. In term of NAV dilution, this same example is 0.9% and again no existing share holders will make noise. We are contemplating a 20% dilution to existing share holders using current outstanding shares and it work out to placement price of 50% to theorectically post spin YZJM' s NAV of $0.58 and that' s why we are alarmed. 

fenghuo      ( Date: 16-Aug-2025 15:06) Posted:

Can help enlighten me why there is 20% dilution?  Based on $250m placement, there is probably 250m shares increase ,  considering now YZJF has 3480m share, so around 7.2% dilution.   

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16-Aug-2025 13:04 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Indeed congrats those who realised their gains. For those who shouldier on, let' s watch the development closely. I read from the circular that the new NAV for YZJM post spin will be $2B, since the distribution will be 1-1 so the outstanding shares for YZJM will be same as YZJF now which is 3,480,450,520 and that will give us NAV of about $0.58. A further $250m will be added via private placement so the NAV become $2.250B at least. In term of NAV per share post private placement, really much dependent on the PP price. As illustrated by volvo125, if the dilution is really 20%, the PP price could be a hugh 50% to the current NAV at $0.285! Imagine private placement at $0.285 per share! In turn, it will reduce post spin NAV to the level of about $0.52, close to 9% difference. Now, how would the market price the share on the first day of post spin listing? Factors to be considered of course is the NAV and to certain extend, the PP price. A negative reaction bound to happen if private placement price is so hugh at $0.285 and we can count our lucky stars if the open marke price post spin is at NAV level at $0.58. Therefore, the management indeed need to clear the air and really they shouldn' t wait till EGM to try to explain and clarify the matter as voting will be immenient after Q& A on EGM day. Anyone has done their calculation too and would like to share their interpretation on the matter are welcome as I could be getting it very wrong too.

Notwithstanding the above, the price actions have been postive in tandem with the spin off developments and could be indication of rerating of YZJF and YZJM post spin. it does not gel with the news that the PP will dilute existing shareholders by at least 20%. Unless the people who have influence on market prices such as insiders, institutional investors and accreditated investors know much more information than us and they view the overall development as positive. 

 

pasttime      ( Date: 16-Aug-2025 06:47) Posted:

the rest if yzjfh is also ready for rapid grow.
2000m at 4.5% will yield 90m
2000m at 1% will yield 20m

to get back 90m return will need principle of 90/0.01 = 9000m
potentially if they play it right the profit few years down the road will be in billions.

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15-Aug-2025 23:25 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Yes diverse views are welcome if based on interpretation of facts and information, and different views and expectations are expected. However, we have seen some naysayers act as if they knew everything when in fact they didn' t base their opinions on any fact and they were condescending toward others who hold different views and even mock the long holders. Well, shall not dwell on it and long holders should focus on whether there is merits to continue holding the 2 companies post spin. Personally I wish to hold a bit longer as from the past 3 years plus since inception of YZJF, we have seen YZJF transfrom from DI focus to other investments, of course most noteworthy is the venture into maritime business and the resulting spin off now. To be frank, we cannot say we have expected the emergence of maritime businesses as it was not the area of focus for YZJF post spin from YZJS. At the material point, old Ren felt enough was enough and came back to helm the ship and we all knew the rest of the story. Therefore, with the spin off, I am thinking YZJM, with old Ren committed 100% to run it, would have high chance of growing into a much more valuable company and for that, I am willing to give myself 2 to 3 years at least to see what happen. Regardless, will hold tight tight till spin off materialised. Wtih regard to placement dilution, not sure why the management cannot address the matter earlier, wouldn' t it be a bit late for shareholders to digest the explanation/clarifiation if they only talk about it during EGM? A 20% dilution is very unusual if indeed that is the case. In 2017 when YZJS raised $154m, the dilution was only 4.07%. 
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/shipyards/yangzijiang-looks-to-raise-154m-from-share-placement

volvo125      ( Date: 15-Aug-2025 13:19) Posted:

Ok, guys, IR has just come back and confirmed the mgt will address the question during EGM. From 0.69 to 0.285 to today 1.06, it has been a damn wild roller-coaster ride in the past ~3 years for the many of us here who boarded the train since Apr 2022. For those who persisted and braved through the stormy ride, regardless all the fear mongering and all the naysayers bashing, the journey has emerged to be a very, very immensely rewarding one. Some of you here may wish to finally abort the train, 赚 够 了 , while some may wish to sail on with the new YFH/YMD chapter, 希 望 应 该 有 机 会 赚 的 更 多 . For me, I am still appraising my options. RenYL is a man of no nonsense and actions, and he almost always delivers, whether back then in YSB, or now in YFH, or in the future fronting YMD or in the background controlling the new YFH. So, renewing the ticket to board the YFH/YFM train seems a very sound option to me. Hope to see you guys in the EGM. xxxxx We really understand your concerns. The management team will address your questions during the EGM. xxxxx

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15-Aug-2025 10:32 YZJ Fin Hldg   /   YZJFH - potentially rewarding       Go to Message
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Let' s wait for a resopnd from the company, it' s good to seek clarification though I do not think old Ren, who hold about 25% of the equity interest in YZJF and by extension, would hold the same percentage in YZJM post spin, would want to see his stake diluted by 20%. Based on the projected timeline provided by volvo125, if EGM passes all the 3 resolutions, we could see YZJM listed as soon as Oct or early Nov or even late Sep. With a current combined NAV of $1.11, those already holding YZJF would want to see market prices for YZJF and YZJM post spin to hit at least $1.11 combined. We won' t know how market will accord the values post spin but a good sign will be that YZJF' s price hit above or closer to NAV of $1.11 before spin off.   
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