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04-Oct-2019 12:49

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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Why sell at this price...? The Lees must be happy...RNAV easily above 80cts soon once PB is recognised.

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03-Oct-2019 19:20

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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The Lee family found some sellers for 2.5m shares of Sing Holdings at below market price to do the married deal with them. The breakdown is as follows:
500k shares by Lee Sze Hao' s wife, Soh Shin Yann, Susan at $0.375
100k shares by Lee and wife' s vehicle, Laurels Investments at $0.37
700k shares by the Lee family vehicle, deemed interested by the 3 brothers, FH Lee Holdings at $0.37
600k shares by Lee Sze Leong at $0.37
600k shares by Lee Sze Siong at $0.37

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20-Sep-2019 15:11

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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Today' s caveats release for Parc Botannia show that 641/735 caveats are lodged = 87.21% sold (+9 for the week). Total revenue is $622,478,067 for 481,286sq ft sold. Average psf inches up to 1293.36psf.

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13-Sep-2019 18:36

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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Perhaps he might make an offer. Do note that the Lee brothers have not done any share purchase for quite some time already.

stockinvestor ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 16:30) Posted:

they will either secure one at a good price or secure NONE at all lol. i still wonder why he doesn' t just make us an offer to privatise. almost risk free $100m upside for him even if he offers us $0.60. why doesn' t he do it?

lifeisgood ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 16:14) Posted:

I believe so. Good or bad, this is SH style. Lets hope they manage to secure a good one at a good price

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13-Sep-2019 16:30

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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lifeisgood ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 16:14) Posted:

I believe so. Good or bad, this is SH style. Lets hope they manage to secure a good one at a good price.

stockinvestor ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 16:01) Posted:

they tried but failed to secure the clementi site (decent bid but beaten by UOL). the EC bid was more lowball. they sat out of the 3 sites which closed last week. clearly, they only believe in securing sizeable plots for mass market which they believe are easier to sell and lower risk (of getting stuck or losing money)

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13-Sep-2019 16:14

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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I believe so. Good or bad, this is SH style. Lets hope they manage to secure a good one at a good price.

stockinvestor ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 16:01) Posted:

lifeisgood ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 15:44) Posted:

As PB is closed to being 100% sold, SH undoubtedly will feel the pressure to acquire some landbank. Will be interesting whether SH will be able to pickup something good just in tim

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13-Sep-2019 16:01

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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lifeisgood ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 15:44) Posted:

As PB is closed to being 100% sold, SH undoubtedly will feel the pressure to acquire some landbank. Will be interesting whether SH will be able to pickup something good just in time

stockinvestor ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 15:37) Posted:

According to agents' fb posts, there are 73 units left for sale ie 662/735 sold = 90% sold. Based on the latest caveats, 632/735 sold = 86% sold. 30 caveats still not lodged possibly for reasons previously discussed. Total revenue is $611.265m for the 472,706sq ft sold so far. Average Selling Price has inched up to 1293.12psf.

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13-Sep-2019 15:44

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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As PB is closed to being 100% sold, SH undoubtedly will feel the pressure to acquire some landbank. Will be interesting whether SH will be able to pickup something good just in time

stockinvestor ( Date: 13-Sep-2019 15:37) Posted:

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13-Sep-2019 15:37

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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19-Aug-2019 10:15

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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From Wee Hur' s results announcement on 14/8:

" The sales status for the Group&rsquo s co-developing development, Parc Botannia, is currently at about 89% sold to-date. The Group will monitor the market situation closely and will continue its effort in selling the remaining units. The construction is in progress and is expected to be completed by 2020."

Seems like they are confident of completing the construction by 2020 vs Singholdings who seems to be more conservative in continuing to mention 2021 as the TOP date.

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08-Aug-2019 22:52

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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This discussion is closed between you and me.

Have a great long weekend.

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08-Aug-2019 22:36

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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The 20% net profit margin as I told you includes the land cost which has already been paid for by the debt. Its fine if you think I don' t understand it. We shall see as the results are announced over the next 2 years whether the equity has increased and debt decreased or vice versa. No point continuing our discussion here when we are on different frequencies. Have a good long weekend.

runaway ( Date: 08-Aug-2019 22:19) Posted:

Your calculation is flawed.

I want to stress again. Revenue is NOT profit and you cant use
that revenue number to reduce your debt.

The complete project collects revenue of
$500 mil. You have to take away all the costs associated with building the project
and you are left with 20% profit margin, which is $100 mil. You can then use this $100 mil profit to pay your debt, pay dividend etc.

Mind you, the $100 mil profit will only be fully realized when you complete the project in 2-3 years.
If you cant understand this, pls talk to one who does.

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08-Aug-2019 22:19

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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08-Aug-2019 20:00

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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I think you are not aware that the margins do increase for later stages of the development? Even the most basic savings from paying down debt reduces interest expenses and increases profits, no?

Even if I take 20% net margins, you have already overlooked one thing. The debt had been used to pay for the land cost UPFRONT. The $500m need not be used to repay debt AND land cost (which reduces the net margins to 20%). That would be double counting.

Specially for you, I ignore all the other numbers (e.g. cash + receivables exceeds all other liabilities by 14m) and just use the most conservative measures. I reduce the remaining revenue to $500m-$160m debt = $340m. I used $400psf for all in costs at 75% of the project and round up to $170m for you. $340m-$170m= $170m net cash. This assumes that they do not bid for any other land since our discussion had been centred on you saying that they are unable to even cover their current and only Parc Botannia project.

runaway ( Date: 08-Aug-2019 19:24) Posted:

Your understanding of revenue = profit is amusing,

Tell me how $500mil pre-sold project can clear the $200 mil debt and with leftover of $200 mil cash?

The profit margin on the $500 mil is 20%.

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08-Aug-2019 19:24

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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Your understanding of revenue = profit is amusing,

Tell me how $500mil pre-sold project can clear the $200 mil debt and with leftover of $200 mil cash?

The profit margin on the $500 mil is 20%.

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08-Aug-2019 19:22

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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From the Q2 results announcement:

" The Group has an ongoing private condominium development at Fernvale Road known as Parc Botannia. As at the date of this announcement, approximately 88% of the units have been issued options to purchase, amounting to sales value of about S$635.2 million. Revenue from sales will continue to be recognised progressively over time based on construction progress. This project is undertaken by a 70:30 joint venture between the Group and Wee Hur Development Pte. Ltd."

There is a further 12% of the project to be sold with a conservative sales value of about $90m. So the total sales value is around $725m or more.

Base on previous annual reports, $15m of revenue was recognized in FY2017 and $70m was recognized in FY2018. For Q1, the group' s revenue was $52.9m and for Q2, the group' s revenue was $54.6m. A small part of the revenue is attributable to the hotel ops, I' ll conservatively estimate that to be $3.5m. That means a further $104m has been recognized in Q1 and Q2 so far.

$725m-$15m-$70m-$104m=$536m revenue from Parc Botannia that is yet to be recognized. Granted you can say property price may crash and they are unable to sell the 12% for 90m. Even if they chop the remaining price by 30% and earn 27m less, there is still > $500m to be recognized. The revenue recognition/billing should be somewhere between 25 and 30% at the end of Q2. That means for those buyers who had purchased their units, they will be billed for at least a further 70% of their purchase price over the next 2 years (TOP is expected by mid 2021).

runaway ( Date: 08-Aug-2019 17:31) Posted:

I cant verify $500+ mil pre-sold. Where?

Even if I give you the benefit of doubt, profit margin is 20%, and that will give you $100 mil in 2-3 years when the project is completed and TOP ready.

How is that enough to repay fully the $160+ mil debts next year with net cash balance of $200+ mil.

I think you have confused revenue with profit.

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08-Aug-2019 18:35

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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Who say 200m cash cannot pay 160m debt????
And where got 200m cash, go n read the latest q2 bs

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08-Aug-2019 17:31

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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08-Aug-2019 16:20

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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they have $500m+ of pre-sold which is still not recognized. when the property market collapses, they will not only have repaid their $160m debt but have > $200m in net cash waiting to buy its next plot of land. you should be able to see from future results over the next half a year how quickly they are paying down their debt and how quickly their cash is going to grow as the buyers pay for each stage of the project completed.

runaway ( Date: 08-Aug-2019 14:46) Posted:

A debt is a leverage.

A leverage, in layman terms, is to make use of the debt to earn more than what you pay to get the debt.

If you borrow $1,000 and pay $40 a year for interest, the debt works against you if you earn less than $40 from the leverage.

SHs interest cover is 4, so it has no problem paying the annual interest for now,

But with Debt/Equity at 90%, the question is whether it has the means to pay for $160+ mil long-term debts when they fall due. A collapse in the property market would bust the company.

There is a reason why it fell from $1.20+ from 2 years ago, and trading below NAV today. The market is concerned, what else?

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08-Aug-2019 14:56

SingHoldings / Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued

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Wonderful exposition of debt...

Oh floating rate debt is getting cheaper too....haha

paul1688 ( Date: 08-Aug-2019 12:07) Posted:

I am not interested in personal ideological debates. But just wish to comment in the name of open forum sharing on one salient point.

Of course there is such a thing as &ldquo good debt&rdquo . Debt management is one of the most powerful financial engineering tool since the modern money system and equity markets as we know it existed. Why do companies issue bonds? Why do government issue Treasury Bills and Government Bonds? Even Fiat money used as currency by most governments today is a debt paper. Why do many people deliberately take on mortgage loans on their property when their CPF and disposal cash in bank are more than enough to buy? Why do many large and medium companies take on more loan or issue more bonds when they expand or make investments? Using debt smartly is an important leverage mechanism for individuals, companies, institutions and government. Borrowing money with clueless purpose or poor investments lead to &ldquo bad debt&rdquo - but debt in itself is a tool. Not good or bad. If a high debt (how high is high?) is a straight bad, then you rule out investing in most companies and almost all Reits on SGX. Having said, looking at Debt to Equity ratio, future Earnings per Share and Cashflow are also important analysis. Hence my earlier comments on SH. Nothing is sacred and no company is worth permanent love or hate unless it ceases to be a going concern.

Remarks : Just sharing. Perfectly ok to not understand anything I wrote or agree to disagree. No problem. Our money, our choice, our wins and losses. We all want to put money in a winner and make money. Have a good long weekend.

runaway ( Date: 08-Aug-2019 07:59) Posted:

Is there such thing as Good Debt?

A debt is a debt. You owe money.

When the money owed is due for payment and you cant pay,
The lenders can liquidate you.

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