Latest Posts By brchkho1
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| 27-Apr-2020 09:54 |
EFH Ltd
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BIO PHARMA company do research on MEDICAL DISEASES
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What kind of good news? Please see Ms Ho Ching' s comment in her FB yesterday on the test kit.: " Hello, everyone! There are tests, and there are tests. While test kits for antibodies may be faster than the swab and PCR approach, they are not meant to test for covid virus itself. All such antibody test kits should NOT be marketed as covid rapid test kits. That is very misleading. The presence of an antibody only tells us whether we have had been infected. It is a lag indicator of infection. And depending on which type of antibody, it tells of the different phases of recovery or infection fighting. And some antibodies may appear a week after infection, while others appear later. Or it may also take longer than 2 weeks to mount a response with enough antibodies to be detected. This can vary from patient to patient. This is like fever - old folks may mount only a very mild fever to an infection, when a younger person may mount a fever more strongly and clearly. So antibody test kits may be marketed as antibody test kits, with info on accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. They should not be marketed as rapid covid-19 test kits. Speed with low accuracy or poor specificity is worse than useless. What is specificity? It means the test picks up the antibody to covid-19 specifically, and not the antibody to other human common cold coronaviruses, to dengue, or to other viruses or bacteria. Otherwise, we may mistake a dengue antibody for a covid antibody for instance. Am exaggerating to make a point, of course, bcos no serious test kit company worth their salt will make such a basic mistake. What is sensitivity? This is the ability of the test to pick up low amounts of antibodies or viruses. For instance, the typical swab and PCR method can take a short or a long time to do - a short time means we multiply the virus bits a few cycles in a RT-PCR and thus have X amount of virus bits that we may not detect, and so this may be useless as a mainstream test kit a long time means we go through many more cycles to generate many more bits of the virus, and thus we can pick up the virus easier, but if we do this for too long, we lower our throughput capacity. So a test may pick up say 100 viral bits vs another which needs 1000 viral bits, while a 3rd needs just 20 viral bits. And each will require different time to do so, measured in hours under the RT-PCR approach. So this is a case of speed vs sensitivity. This kind of trade off often happens for biological type testing. There are alternative technologies which may be faster, but none are available in commercial quantiites yet - they are still being developed, or are being validated. Finally, the accuracy. This means when we have a reading of Y, we know that the real number could range from Y-Z to Y+Z. To complicate matters, sometimes we have Y-Z1 to Y+Z2. Hee! But let&rsquo s keep to a single Z for simplicity. If Z is a small percentage of Y, we know we can rely on the Y to make a decision. But if Z is bigger than Y, then we pretty much can ignore Y of a certain value. Take the ATP machine - we use this as a first line check of the amount of living microbial organisms say on a door knob. Suppose the accuracy Z is 250, and the machine gives a Y reading of 22. That doesn&rsquo t mean that we are really at 22. It means the true number can be anywhere from 0 to 250. So we should then use the 250 mark as the pass/fail, rather than try to aim to be 0 or 50, etc. The machine just doesn&rsquo t give us that kind of accuracy to make these low numbers meaningful. So media reports on all test kits should ask for their test data and share those test data as a way to educate our people fully, and not get carried away by the focus on speed as if that is the be all and end all of test kits. Or ask for their user base. P.s. I don&rsquo t have the info on the Biolidics off the top of my head, and have no specific information on their test kit performance. But it would be good if Biolidics or any other test kit producers share these information with the media. It is also useful for mainstream media to go get medical or research specialists to help them interpret test kit specs, or go get a tutorial quickly. Under today&rsquo s emergency situation, many health authorities may give provisional status without requiring the full jing-bang of validation and trials that they would normally require. So waving the names of this or that authority is not the way to go. And my apologies to both Biolidics and Straits Times for using their story to hang this PSA peg to alert folks on how we should look at news on this or that superduper 2 minute or 10 minute test kit. Thank you, all, for this opportunity to share some thots and observations. P.p.s. A recent NYT article just reported that of the 14 antibody tests, only 3 gave consistently reliable results. The rest didn&rsquo t perform as advertised. Layman translation - the rest were junk. Even the best 3 had flaws. Only one didn&rsquo t have false positives. Why does false positives happen? One reason has to do with specificity as discussed earlier. If a test cannot be very very specific to covid-19, and recognises something else as covid-19 antibody, we will end up as a false positive. That is a very clear no-no. Others may have very high false positives - which means they are junk tests. More on other points in the NYT article later."
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| 27-Apr-2020 09:38 |
EFH Ltd
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BIO PHARMA company do research on MEDICAL DISEASES
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Please go to Ms Ho Ching' s FB to see her comment yesterday on the test kit. " Hello, everyone! There are tests, and there are tests. While test kits for antibodies may be faster than the swab and PCR approach, they are not meant to test for covid virus itself. All such antibody test kits should NOT be marketed as covid rapid test kits. That is very misleading. The presence of an antibody only tells us whether we have had been infected. It is a lag indicator of infection. And depending on which type of antibody, it tells of the different phases of recovery or infection fighting. And some antibodies may appear a week after infection, while others appear later. Or it may also take longer than 2 weeks to mount a response with enough antibodies to be detected. This can vary from patient to patient. This is like fever - old folks may mount only a very mild fever to an infection, when a younger person may mount a fever more strongly and clearly. So antibody test kits may be marketed as antibody test kits, with info on accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. They should not be marketed as rapid covid-19 test kits. Speed with low accuracy or poor specificity is worse than useless. What is specificity? It means the test picks up the antibody to covid-19 specifically, and not the antibody to other human common cold coronaviruses, to dengue, or to other viruses or bacteria. Otherwise, we may mistake a dengue antibody for a covid antibody for instance. Am exaggerating to make a point, of course, bcos no serious test kit company worth their salt will make such a basic mistake. What is sensitivity? This is the ability of the test to pick up low amounts of antibodies or viruses. For instance, the typical swab and PCR method can take a short or a long time to do - a short time means we multiply the virus bits a few cycles in a RT-PCR and thus have X amount of virus bits that we may not detect, and so this may be useless as a mainstream test kit a long time means we go through many more cycles to generate many more bits of the virus, and thus we can pick up the virus easier, but if we do this for too long, we lower our throughput capacity. So a test may pick up say 100 viral bits vs another which needs 1000 viral bits, while a 3rd needs just 20 viral bits. And each will require different time to do so, measured in hours under the RT-PCR approach. So this is a case of speed vs sensitivity. This kind of trade off often happens for biological type testing. There are alternative technologies which may be faster, but none are available in commercial quantiites yet - they are still being developed, or are being validated. Finally, the accuracy. This means when we have a reading of Y, we know that the real number could range from Y-Z to Y+Z. To complicate matters, sometimes we have Y-Z1 to Y+Z2. Hee! But let&rsquo s keep to a single Z for simplicity. If Z is a small percentage of Y, we know we can rely on the Y to make a decision. But if Z is bigger than Y, then we pretty much can ignore Y of a certain value. Take the ATP machine - we use this as a first line check of the amount of living microbial organisms say on a door knob. Suppose the accuracy Z is 250, and the machine gives a Y reading of 22. That doesn&rsquo t mean that we are really at 22. It means the true number can be anywhere from 0 to 250. So we should then use the 250 mark as the pass/fail, rather than try to aim to be 0 or 50, etc. The machine just doesn&rsquo t give us that kind of accuracy to make these low numbers meaningful. So media reports on all test kits should ask for their test data and share those test data as a way to educate our people fully, and not get carried away by the focus on speed as if that is the be all and end all of test kits. Or ask for their user base. P.s. I don&rsquo t have the info on the Biolidics off the top of my head, and have no specific information on their test kit performance. But it would be good if Biolidics or any other test kit producers share these information with the media. It is also useful for mainstream media to go get medical or research specialists to help them interpret test kit specs, or go get a tutorial quickly. Under today&rsquo s emergency situation, many health authorities may give provisional status without requiring the full jing-bang of validation and trials that they would normally require. So waving the names of this or that authority is not the way to go. And my apologies to both Biolidics and Straits Times for using their story to hang this PSA peg to alert folks on how we should look at news on this or that superduper 2 minute or 10 minute test kit. Thank you, all, for this opportunity to share some thots and observations. P.p.s. A recent NYT article just reported that of the 14 antibody tests, only 3 gave consistently reliable results. The rest didn&rsquo t perform as advertised. Layman translation - the rest were junk. Even the best 3 had flaws. Only one didn&rsquo t have false positives. Why does false positives happen? One reason has to do with specificity as discussed earlier. If a test cannot be very very specific to covid-19, and recognises something else as covid-19 antibody, we will end up as a false positive. That is a very clear no-no. Others may have very high false positives - which means they are junk tests. More on other points in the NYT article later." |
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| 27-Apr-2020 09:04 |
EFH Ltd
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BIO PHARMA company do research on MEDICAL DISEASES
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Dropping, drop unit all can' t recognize the home liao..... Not vested.
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| 26-Apr-2020 10:57 |
EFH Ltd
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BIO PHARMA company do research on MEDICAL DISEASES
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ijDFDvXJq To watch from 4:07 to 9:29 on the FDA' s comments on the test kits. DYDD |
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| 19-Apr-2020 11:54 |
SATS
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Sats
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All planes can fly, but will there be passengers? Fare too high, no attraction to entice risk takers. Too low, can' t cover the costs. Besides, most of the countries need the passengers to quarantine for 14 days, fly to anyplace for 14 days and fly back, kena another 14 days here. For what???
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| 06-Apr-2020 09:29 |
Golden Agri-Res
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GoldenAgr
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On the contrary, all food prices are expected to go up instead of going down because lesser production with increasing demand due to stocking up. The exportinng countries will reduce export to take care of domestic demand, many other importing countries will beef up their stockpile. The phenomenon had been evidenced by the masks. Minister had in the last 2 days highlighted, but in subtle way.
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| 03-Apr-2020 09:55 |
PARAGONREIT
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SPH Reit
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Dividend policy stated to pay no less than 90% of income in each year and not each quarter. For SPH Reit, this is only the 1st half, I believed the management is expecting lower income in the coming month, hence keeping some for next reportinng instead of much lesser distribution.
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| 31-Mar-2020 08:27 |
Medtecs Intl
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Medtecs
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Goto this URL for latest update https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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| 16-Mar-2020 09:27 |
SingHoldings
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Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued
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We are pleased to announce todate, that the Group&rsquo s co-developing development, Parc Botannia, 100% of the units have been issued option to purchase. The construction is in progress and is expected to be completed by 2020. The above statement is found in Wee Hur' s recent Annual Report annoucement on 28 Feb 2020.
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| 16-Mar-2020 09:23 |
SingHoldings
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Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued
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Sometimes, some law firm will not lodge the cavaet so fast.
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| 13-Mar-2020 16:14 |
Sasseur Reit
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Sasseur REIT Latest News
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From 12 Mar 2020, many of the cities have opening up liao. Of course, face mask, registration (just scan QR code in one' s HP) and temperature taking are still mandatory.
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| 10-Mar-2020 09:33 |
Genting Sing
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Genting SP Next Move
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DJ Futures up about 670 now.
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| 09-Mar-2020 21:01 |
SingHoldings
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Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued
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Looks like the 500k shares was a married deal and not buy back by any of the major shareholders.
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| 09-Mar-2020 17:58 |
China Aviation
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China Avation Oil to hit above $1.60?
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Saudi is showing the World, Who is the boss..... Tradewar, Brexit, Covid-19, step aside, please. US future dropped by 1,303.78 and hit the limit, but open could be worst. Not sure if the circuit breakers of 7%, 13% and 20% will be hit later.
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| 09-Mar-2020 17:21 |
Others
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STI 3,000 boosted by pivot investors mkt players
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Saudi is showing the World, Who is the boss..... Tradewar, Brexit, Covid-19, step aside, please.
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| 09-Mar-2020 17:00 |
China Aviation
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China Avation Oil to hit above $1.60?
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No one knows where the bottom is. This price range of 90 plus were in 2018, I believed 60 plus cents were the bottom way back in 2011 to 2016. How likely it will go to that kind of price level? Especially, this company is a oil trader and not involved in manufacturing and also involved in supplying aviation oil in most of the China airport for domestic flights as well as some airpots in some other countries. I will pick up once the market is more stable.
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| 09-Mar-2020 11:34 |
SingHoldings
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Sing Holdings - Grossly undervalued
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Who knows if the missing out in this tender may be a blessing in disguise.
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| 06-Mar-2020 14:35 |
SingPost
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SingPost
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Going at this rate, I am not surprise if it may go back to the level of 0.675 in Dec 2011.
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| 06-Mar-2020 14:23 |
Medtecs Intl
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Medtecs
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The major shareholder had already told all about the price trend of this counter by clearing all his holdings towards end of Jan.
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| 06-Mar-2020 09:36 |
China Sunsine
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China Sunsine Chemical
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Not vested yet and waiting patiently to enter later....
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