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Latest Forum Topics / China Aviation    Last:1.84    +0.01  Post Reply
China Avation Oil to hit above $1.60?
JurongW
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04-Jun-2026 22:53     
 
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Yells: "Earnings give weight, Chart give wings"
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 Alert Admin 		Any suggestion which price to buy the dip?

shk363      ( Date: 04-Jun-2026 21:15) Posted:

buy on dips

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shk363
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04-Jun-2026 21:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		buy on dips
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desmodeus
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04-Jun-2026 11:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		With so much tailwinds going for cao, quite surprise and pleased at the same time share price is still below 4.20. Surprise because it is enjoying immense arbitrage opportunities due to volatiliy, high jet fuel spreads and tight supply, huge cash reserves. Pleased because can come cheap cheap from those throwing out the baby with the tub. drop somemore please
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desmodeus
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03-Jun-2026 12:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hope big big dividends

ysh2006      ( Date: 30-Mar-2026 17:36) Posted:

No reason the price up....no dividend,profit down oil price down ?

ysh2006      ( Date: 30-Mar-2026 11:06) Posted:

This DBS why uplift the stock with no dividend for full year and profit down ?...
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ysh2006
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30-Mar-2026 17:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No reason the price up....no dividend,profit down oil price down ?

ysh2006      ( Date: 30-Mar-2026 11:06) Posted:

This DBS why uplift the stock with no dividend for full year and profit down ?....

Joelton      ( Date: 20-Mar-2026 10:14) Posted:

DBS lifts China Aviation Oil target price to S$2.50 on arbitrage opportunities
Tightening availability and fragmenting regional markets may strengthen CAO&rsquo s commercial positioning
 
[SINGAPORE] DBS analysts raised their target price for   China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp (CAO)   : G92 0% to S$2.50 on Tuesday (Mar 17), up from S$1.75, following &ldquo convincing&rdquo better-than-expected earnings for the 2025 financial year.
 
DBS Group Research analyst Jason Sum maintained a &ldquo buy&rdquo call on the jet fuel trader, citing its FY2025 net profit, which reached US$110.6 million and beat the street&rsquo s projection by 14 per cent. 
 
The outperformance was primarily driven by gross profit per tonne surging to US$4.70 in the second half of 2025, a 77 per cent increase year on year.
 
Sum cited the firm&rsquo s multi-year earnings growth as underpinned by resilient demand, and said that its near term is supported by favourable trading conditions.
 
&ldquo Trading margins are likely to remain elevated into 2026, supported by ongoing volatility and cross-regional dislocations, before moderating over time as supply chains gradually rebalance,&rdquo he said.
 
The Middle East conflict has disrupted supply flows, pushing jet fuel markets into the &ldquo steepest backwardation in recent years&rdquo while regional price spreads have widened to levels exceeding those seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he added.
 
Yet, Sum noted that while &ldquo backwardation and higher air fares are negatives&rdquo , they are expected to be &ldquo more than offset&rdquo by widening cross-regional spreads and heightened volatility. 
 
&ldquo The group has conducted extensive internal war-gaming around potential conflict scenarios. The management indicated that it has modelled a range of outcomes, including disruptions lasting four weeks, eight weeks or up to three months, with corresponding operational and trading responses prepared for each case,&rdquo he said. 
 
&ldquo This scenario-planning allows the trading team to respond quickly to shifts in supply flows, regional price spreads and cargo availability,&rdquo Sum added.
 
Across land, sea and air, fuel price hikes drive up costs for passengers and operators in Singapore
 
The strategy &ldquo continues to prioritise the stability of the physical cargo franchise, with trading activity focused on capturing dislocations created by volatility rather than taking speculative positions&rdquo .
 
While volumes supplied could underwhelm if higher jet fuel prices begin to dampen air travel demand, the same supply disruptions are &ldquo tightening availability and fragmenting regional markets, which should strengthen CAO&rsquo s commercial positioning&rdquo . 
 
Sum further noted that CAO&rsquo s net cash position of US$683 million accounts for nearly 50 per cent of its market capitalisation, highlighting &ldquo clear capital inefficiency&rdquo that provides scope for a re-rating once addressed.
 
While the final dividend of S$0.0496 was described as &ldquo underwhelming&rdquo against the earnings beat, DBS expects the group can eventually &ldquo sustain a 60 per cent to 70 per cent payout, implying a yield of 5 per cent to 8 per cent&rdquo once parent-level restructuring constraints are lifted.
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JurongW
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30-Mar-2026 15:34     
 
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Here&rsquo s a structured analysis of the China Aviation Oil (SGX: G92) chart you uploaded:

🔎 Trend & Channels

  • Broader blue ascending channel: Indicates a medium-term uptrend structure. Price has been respecting this channel, suggesting buyers are still in control.
  • Narrower red ascending channel: Shows a steeper short-term climb. This often signals momentum acceleration, but can also precede exhaustion if volume doesn&rsquo t sustain.

📊 Fibonacci Levels

  • Key retracement zones:
    • 2.12 (0.382) &rarr Current price is sitting exactly at this level, making it a pivotal battleground.
    • 2.05 (0.5) &rarr Next support if 2.12 fails.
    • 2.20 (0.236) &rarr Immediate upside target if price breaks above resistance.
  • 2.34 (0) &rarr Marks the swing high a breakout above 2.20 could set up a retest here.

📈 Moving Averages

  • EMA 5 = 2.09 and EMA 20 = 2.04:
    • Price (2.12) is above both EMAs &rarr bullish alignment.
    • The short EMA is above the long EMA, confirming near-term momentum.

🧱 Resistance & Volume

  • Resistance at 2.12: Price is testing this level right now. A decisive close above could trigger momentum toward 2.20.
  • High volume spike (18 Mar &rsquo 26): Suggests strong institutional participation. If volume continues to rise on a breakout, it validates the move.

⚖ ️ Scenario Mapping

Scenario Trigger Target Risk
Bullish breakout Close above 2.12 with volume 2.20 &rarr 2.34 Pullback to 2.05
Failed breakout Rejection at 2.12 2.05 &rarr 1.98 Loss of channel support
Neutral consolidation Sideways between 2.05&ndash 2.12 Range trading Whipsaws near resistance

🎯 Calibration Insight



Right now, the stock is at a decision point: either it breaks through 2.12 resistance with conviction, or it retraces to test lower Fibonacci supports. The volume spike is encouraging, but confirmation requires sustained buying pressure.


 
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ysh2006
Supreme
30-Mar-2026 11:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		This DBS why uplift the stock with no dividend for full year and profit down ?....

Joelton      ( Date: 20-Mar-2026 10:14) Posted:

DBS lifts China Aviation Oil target price to S$2.50 on arbitrage opportunities
Tightening availability and fragmenting regional markets may strengthen CAO&rsquo s commercial positioning
 
[SINGAPORE] DBS analysts raised their target price for   China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp (CAO)   : G92 0% to S$2.50 on Tuesday (Mar 17), up from S$1.75, following &ldquo convincing&rdquo better-than-expected earnings for the 2025 financial year.
 
DBS Group Research analyst Jason Sum maintained a &ldquo buy&rdquo call on the jet fuel trader, citing its FY2025 net profit, which reached US$110.6 million and beat the street&rsquo s projection by 14 per cent. 
 
The outperformance was primarily driven by gross profit per tonne surging to US$4.70 in the second half of 2025, a 77 per cent increase year on year.
 
Sum cited the firm&rsquo s multi-year earnings growth as underpinned by resilient demand, and said that its near term is supported by favourable trading conditions.
 
&ldquo Trading margins are likely to remain elevated into 2026, supported by ongoing volatility and cross-regional dislocations, before moderating over time as supply chains gradually rebalance,&rdquo he said.
 
The Middle East conflict has disrupted supply flows, pushing jet fuel markets into the &ldquo steepest backwardation in recent years&rdquo while regional price spreads have widened to levels exceeding those seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he added.
 
Yet, Sum noted that while &ldquo backwardation and higher air fares are negatives&rdquo , they are expected to be &ldquo more than offset&rdquo by widening cross-regional spreads and heightened volatility. 
 
&ldquo The group has conducted extensive internal war-gaming around potential conflict scenarios. The management indicated that it has modelled a range of outcomes, including disruptions lasting four weeks, eight weeks or up to three months, with corresponding operational and trading responses prepared for each case,&rdquo he said. 
 
&ldquo This scenario-planning allows the trading team to respond quickly to shifts in supply flows, regional price spreads and cargo availability,&rdquo Sum added.
 
Across land, sea and air, fuel price hikes drive up costs for passengers and operators in Singapore
 
The strategy &ldquo continues to prioritise the stability of the physical cargo franchise, with trading activity focused on capturing dislocations created by volatility rather than taking speculative positions&rdquo .
 
While volumes supplied could underwhelm if higher jet fuel prices begin to dampen air travel demand, the same supply disruptions are &ldquo tightening availability and fragmenting regional markets, which should strengthen CAO&rsquo s commercial positioning&rdquo . 
 
Sum further noted that CAO&rsquo s net cash position of US$683 million accounts for nearly 50 per cent of its market capitalisation, highlighting &ldquo clear capital inefficiency&rdquo that provides scope for a re-rating once addressed.
 
While the final dividend of S$0.0496 was described as &ldquo underwhelming&rdquo against the earnings beat, DBS expects the group can eventually &ldquo sustain a 60 per cent to 70 per cent payout, implying a yield of 5 per cent to 8 per cent&rdquo once parent-level restructuring constraints are lifted.
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Joelton
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20-Mar-2026 10:14     
 
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DBS lifts China Aviation Oil target price to S$2.50 on arbitrage opportunities
Tightening availability and fragmenting regional markets may strengthen CAO&rsquo s commercial positioning
 
[SINGAPORE] DBS analysts raised their target price for   China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp (CAO)   : G92 0% to S$2.50 on Tuesday (Mar 17), up from S$1.75, following &ldquo convincing&rdquo better-than-expected earnings for the 2025 financial year.
 
DBS Group Research analyst Jason Sum maintained a &ldquo buy&rdquo call on the jet fuel trader, citing its FY2025 net profit, which reached US$110.6 million and beat the street&rsquo s projection by 14 per cent. 
 
The outperformance was primarily driven by gross profit per tonne surging to US$4.70 in the second half of 2025, a 77 per cent increase year on year.
 
Sum cited the firm&rsquo s multi-year earnings growth as underpinned by resilient demand, and said that its near term is supported by favourable trading conditions.
 
&ldquo Trading margins are likely to remain elevated into 2026, supported by ongoing volatility and cross-regional dislocations, before moderating over time as supply chains gradually rebalance,&rdquo he said.
 
The Middle East conflict has disrupted supply flows, pushing jet fuel markets into the &ldquo steepest backwardation in recent years&rdquo while regional price spreads have widened to levels exceeding those seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he added.
 
Yet, Sum noted that while &ldquo backwardation and higher air fares are negatives&rdquo , they are expected to be &ldquo more than offset&rdquo by widening cross-regional spreads and heightened volatility. 
 
&ldquo The group has conducted extensive internal war-gaming around potential conflict scenarios. The management indicated that it has modelled a range of outcomes, including disruptions lasting four weeks, eight weeks or up to three months, with corresponding operational and trading responses prepared for each case,&rdquo he said. 
 
&ldquo This scenario-planning allows the trading team to respond quickly to shifts in supply flows, regional price spreads and cargo availability,&rdquo Sum added.
 
Across land, sea and air, fuel price hikes drive up costs for passengers and operators in Singapore
 
The strategy &ldquo continues to prioritise the stability of the physical cargo franchise, with trading activity focused on capturing dislocations created by volatility rather than taking speculative positions&rdquo .
 
While volumes supplied could underwhelm if higher jet fuel prices begin to dampen air travel demand, the same supply disruptions are &ldquo tightening availability and fragmenting regional markets, which should strengthen CAO&rsquo s commercial positioning&rdquo . 
 
Sum further noted that CAO&rsquo s net cash position of US$683 million accounts for nearly 50 per cent of its market capitalisation, highlighting &ldquo clear capital inefficiency&rdquo that provides scope for a re-rating once addressed.
 
While the final dividend of S$0.0496 was described as &ldquo underwhelming&rdquo against the earnings beat, DBS expects the group can eventually &ldquo sustain a 60 per cent to 70 per cent payout, implying a yield of 5 per cent to 8 per cent&rdquo once parent-level restructuring constraints are lifted.
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ozone2002
Supreme
18-Mar-2026 17:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Last:2.21        +0.18
hope CAO hedged their positions unlike the last time when they almost got slaughtered

ozone2002      ( Date: 18-Mar-2026 12:25) Posted:



DBS Research
China Aviation Oil -  Capital story in-tact margins could take flight amid turbulence
&bull FY25 net profit of USD110.6mn beat by 14%, with gross profit per ton surging to USD4.7 on stronger arbitrage conditions and incremental SAF contribution
&bull While backwardation and higher air fares are negatives, they should be more than offset by widening cross regional spreads and heightened volatility
&bull Dividends remain muted amid ongoing restructuring, but a robust net cash and earnings underpin scope for higher payouts once parent level constraints are lifted
&bull Raise FY26/27F earnings by 12%/9% maintain BUY TP raised to SGD2.50 with earnings upgrades and higher multiple peg

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ozone2002
Supreme
18-Mar-2026 12:25     
 
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DBS Research
China Aviation Oil -  Capital story in-tact margins could take flight amid turbulence
&bull FY25 net profit of USD110.6mn beat by 14%, with gross profit per ton surging to USD4.7 on stronger arbitrage conditions and incremental SAF contribution
&bull While backwardation and higher air fares are negatives, they should be more than offset by widening cross regional spreads and heightened volatility
&bull Dividends remain muted amid ongoing restructuring, but a robust net cash and earnings underpin scope for higher payouts once parent level constraints are lifted
&bull Raise FY26/27F earnings by 12%/9% maintain BUY TP raised to SGD2.50 with earnings upgrades and higher multiple peg
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desmodeus
Veteran
18-Mar-2026 09:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		2.50

beachlover1270      ( Date: 15-Mar-2026 12:52) Posted:

CAO has attempted to break the $2.05 a few times. Many analysts have upgraded the stock. It should clear the resistance soon. Please see the report.

Analysts up target prices sharply after this company reports record US$111 million net profit https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/949-2026/16621-analysts-up-target-prices-sharply-after-this-company-reports-record-us-111-million-net-profit

 

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beachlover1270
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15-Mar-2026 12:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		CAO has attempted to break the $2.05 a few times. Many analysts have upgraded the stock. It should clear the resistance soon. Please see the report.

Analysts up target prices sharply after this company reports record US$111 million net profit https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/949-2026/16621-analysts-up-target-prices-sharply-after-this-company-reports-record-us-111-million-net-profit

 
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SmallSmall
Supreme
12-Mar-2026 13:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Messenger also needs to see the GLARING difference lah....
Thanks anyway for clarifying 

ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Mar-2026 12:10) Posted:

Don' t shoot the messenger, only sharing what I rec' d from source
typo on the TP for the first line, in subsequent TP it shows correctly at $2.53
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ozone2002
Supreme
12-Mar-2026 12:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Don' t shoot the messenger, only sharing what I rec' d from source
typo on the TP for the first line, in subsequent TP it shows correctly at $2.53
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SmallSmall
Supreme
12-Mar-2026 11:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		$4.53? Please double check. Shouldn' t it be $2.53.
Can' t be such a big jump.
Please remove post if it is wrong.
 

ozone2002      ( Date: 12-Mar-2026 10:44) Posted:

Phillips 

China Aviation Oil  (BUY TP S$4.53) - Jet fuel volumes rise, margins take flight
&bull       We increase FY26e PATMI by 32% to account for higher refuelling volumes on continued air travel recovery, and improved physical jet fuel supply margins. SPIA&rsquo s Terminal 3 expansion will also increase passenger handling capacity by c. 62.5%, further driving conventional jet fuel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) demand. We maintain BUY rating with a higher TP of S$2.53 (prev: S$1.50). CAO trades at an 11.2x FY26e P/E. Growth will arise from higher passenger volumes from its SPIA associate post-expansion, and from strategic investments to support its growing SAF business.
 

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ozone2002
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12-Mar-2026 10:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Phillips 

China Aviation Oil  (BUY TP S$4.53) - Jet fuel volumes rise, margins take flight
&bull       We increase FY26e PATMI by 32% to account for higher refuelling volumes on continued air travel recovery, and improved physical jet fuel supply margins. SPIA&rsquo s Terminal 3 expansion will also increase passenger handling capacity by c. 62.5%, further driving conventional jet fuel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) demand. We maintain BUY rating with a higher TP of S$2.53 (prev: S$1.50). CAO trades at an 11.2x FY26e P/E. Growth will arise from higher passenger volumes from its SPIA associate post-expansion, and from strategic investments to support its growing SAF business.
 
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desmodeus
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07-Mar-2026 02:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Focussing on jet fuel crack spreads i.e. the wider the difference between the prices for crude and jet fuel, the larger the expansion of CAO' s supply margins. Jet fuel is hitting the roof now, go to    https://www.energyintel.com/0000019c-be6e-d240-a7dd-bf7edae90000. The topside is that its revenue is positively correlated with crude prices as can be seen in previous high-price cycles. Not to mention the Sinopec backstop, am bullish on this stock. Flipside is backwardation though I think it will be limited. Air travel routes will be diverted at best but demand will still be there. China strategic crude reserves are estimated to last 250 days but Chian has Russia and now Canada, thanks to Trump.  Vested

desmodeus      ( Date: 27-Feb-2026 19:36) Posted:

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/949-2026/16591-might-there-be-a-general-offer-for-this-company-cgs-flags-the-possibility😲 🤤

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ysh2006
Supreme
28-Feb-2026 08:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Last time the parent company gave very generously for petrol station SPC to privatisation leh...

desmodeus      ( Date: 27-Feb-2026 19:36) Posted:

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/949-2026/16591-might-there-be-a-general-offer-for-this-company-cgs-flags-the-possibility😲 🤤

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desmodeus
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27-Feb-2026 19:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/949-2026/16591-might-there-be-a-general-offer-for-this-company-cgs-flags-the-possibility😲 🤤
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Joelton
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27-Feb-2026 11:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		China Aviation Oil H2 net profit up 68.3% at US$60.5 million
It recommends a final dividend per share of S$0.0496 for the financial year ended Dec 31
[SINGAPORE] China Aviation Oil : G92 +0.51% posted a net profit of US$60.5 million for its second half of 2025, up 68.3 per cent from US$36 million in the year-ago period.
This translated to an earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.0703, 68.2 per cent higher than US$0.0418 in the previous corresponding period.
The group said on Thursday (Feb 26) that the improvements were due to an increase in gross profit and share of results from its associates, but were partially offset by the increase in expenses and income tax expenses.
H2 revenue stood at US$7.9 billion, a marginal decline of 1.3 per cent from US$8 billion in H2 2024, driven mainly by a decrease in oil prices.
For the full year, the group posted a record net profit of US$110.5 million, a 41.1 per cent year-on-year increase from US$78.4 million, driven by higher gross profit and higher share of results from associates.
Gross profits from operations rose 73.9 per cent to US$72.8 million.
Share of results from associates climbed 31.2 per cent to US$60.2 million, led by Shanghai Pudong International Airport Aviation Fuel Supply Company, which posted a 29.1 per cent increase in contributions to US$57.4 million, from US$44.5 million in FY2024, amid higher refuelling volumes.
The group&rsquo s full-year EPS stood at US$0.1285, an increase of 41.1 per cent from an EPS of US$0.0911 in FY2024.
Revenue rose 5.9 per cent on the year to US$16.4 billion from US$15.5 billion.
As at Dec 31, 2025, net asset value per share stood at US$1.2528, compared to US$1.1466 as at end-2024.
Cash and cash equivalents rose to US$687 million as at Dec 31, 2025, from US$500.3 million in the same period a year ago.
The board proposed a final dividend per share of S$0.0496 for the financial year ended Dec 31, up from S$0.0372 for the prior financial year, with the record and payment date to be announced in due course. This represents a dividend payout of 30 per cent of the group&rsquo s annual consolidated net profits.
In terms of outlook, the company noted that global civil aviation sector is set for a 4.9 per cent increase in passenger numbers to 5.2 billion in 2026, according to data from the International Air Transport Association.
China Aviation Oil chief executive Lin Yi said the company maintains a &ldquo cautiously optimistic stance&rdquo for 2026, as it intends to capitalise on rising demand in key markets and actively pursue new opportunities within the low-carbon business.
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