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| 13-Oct-2020 18:41 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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For longer term investors who buy to hold, buying at $0.10 is definitely better than $0.146 if we ever get there. With low debt and cash hoard of $0.16+ per share, SMM' s cash on hand is already higher than its current price. |
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| 13-Oct-2020 18:34 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Actually, it is quite a good thing to have many players shorting SMM. Most of the spectacular rallies are short covering rallies, be it in an individual stock or an index. SMM' s biz is not affected a single bit by people shorting or buying its shares. It is still biz as usual for SMM whatever the positioning of investors or speculators are in its stock. SMM' s position as one of Singapore key company in a key industry is not affected at all even if the short interest is sky high. Cut loss is generally a term used by players on contra. And its a fact that vast majority of individual day traders eventually go bust. It is the institutional traders that are making the dough. |
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| 13-Oct-2020 13:17 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Happy for you too ADS2200. Maybe the amount could pay for the downpayment of a i30 in 12 months time. I bought my cheapest bunch at $0.144 See whether can get any cheaper than that this Friday. SMM is like a box of gourmet chocolate, full of surprises. A gift that keeps on giving....  
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| 12-Oct-2020 16:42 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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SCI is in a very matured business. It can be argued that almost anyone can run a power plant nowadays. You can get the contract only when you are willing undercut your competitors substantially and agree to take on a huge debt to finance or fund the project. SCI has close to $10 billion debt and make only $200-300 million on a good year. The need of a Temasek led rights issue to recapitalise SCI is high based on its current trajectory. That' s why SCI need to do an India IPO urgently to avert an impending cash crunch. If you ever deal with India Indians before, you would know that it is not easy to make money from them. SCI' s debt to equity ratio will worsen to about 250% after SMM rights issue. The $1.5bil subordinated loan to SMM, which was previously classified as an asset in SCI' s book, will have to be written off. It is like a bank writing off a bad debt. Not even making a loss provision but actually writing it off. From the accounting standpoint, it is like SCI making an $1.5 billion extraordinary loss (equivalent of 6-7 years of their net profit). If you have studied the breakdown of SCI' s H1 results, you would have noticed that they are actually making a net loss even if we exclude SMM' s contribution. The main reason of the demerger is because SCI over committed itself to bill out SMM last year by offering them a $2 billion subordinated loan. SCM drew $1.5 billion from it but SCI would likely would be in a cash crunch if SMM draw down the remaining $500 million. Therefore, the rights issue is to get SCI off the hook for the remaining $500 million and also to maximise Temasek' s direct holding in SMM. The rights issue flooded SMM with more than ample liquidity but place SCI in a worse financial shape. It is impossible for them to get further bank loan. Rolling over existing debts may be on more stringent terms. You know how bad SCI' s cashflow is when they have to announce to the world recently that they managed to secure a meagre $40 million loan to fund a solar contract. Many SCI retail shareholders is willing to sell their free SMM shares because they calculated that 4.9*14.7 + 1.33 = $2.05 is about 10% higher than SCI share price before the distribution. Once the selling by SCI retail shareholders start to dry up in the coming weeks/ months, SCI would likely drop back towards the $1 mark. JMHO (Just my humble opinion). Might be nonsense....reader beware |
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| 12-Oct-2020 16:39 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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At this point, low 20s to breakeven. What about you? |
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| 12-Oct-2020 16:37 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Rising cost of living has been a hot topic over the past decade. To say yes to higher Sembcorp profit is like saying yes to higher utility bills for all Singaporeans. Not likely to happen soon until they win back Aljunied and Seng Kang GRC. The opening up of the Singapore electricity market is another stab on utility players&rsquo chest. Bear in mind that Hyflux went under when they try to get into the highly competitive and volatile " electricity" business. |
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| 12-Oct-2020 16:33 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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While SCI' s biz is quite diverse, a lot of it is still cantered around the Singapore utilities market, electricity, water, waste etc. SCI' s profitability is more of a political decision rather than a commercial outcome. In short, the Singapore government does not allow Sembcorp and other utility players to make more than a sustenance margin. |
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| 12-Oct-2020 16:31 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Just to clarify some misconceptions on this forum: SCI has nothing to do with SMM and vice versa after the rights issue exercise. SCI owns 0% of SMM now and SMM owns 0% of SCI. 2 distinct biz entities. Temasek currently owns 42.6% of SMM and 49.9% of SCI. Though this is the wrong thread to comment about SCI, but quite frankly, I would not buy SCI now even at $1. |
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| 12-Oct-2020 16:17 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Breaking news: Natural gas futures surged 6% today to $2.9+/- Was trading at $1.8+ just a month ago. |
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| 12-Oct-2020 09:24 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Just bought a bunch at $0.147 to keep. Thank goodness managed to get it. 14.7 disappeared for awhile. 12 mth target- 45 to 60 cents. |
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| 10-Oct-2020 16:43 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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That' s why Energean is rushing SMM to complete their FPSO for the Israel' s Karish field so that they can get first gas by mid next year. It may sound counter intuitive: If SMM can refrain from committing their capacity and financial resources to new projects now when sentiment is still luke warm and wait for the opportunities to commit their resources next year, their margin will be much better. They can afford to wait because unlike Keppel O& M, SMM is loaded with $2 billion cold hard cash. Bidding for projects when the global spare capacity is lessor next year will be far more profitable. That' s how I see it. With a bit of luck, I would not be surprised if they can make more than $1 billion annual profit a couple of years from now. The previous high during the last boom was $600 mil. |
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| 10-Oct-2020 16:18 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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From the enormous effort the manipulators put in to supress the price so they could buy more at rock bottom prices, I believe the reversal would be spectacular when it starts, whenever it may be. A good start date would be the release of Q3 results in 2-3 weeks time. Just hope I could buy more when some of my funds come in before it happens. Most soft commodities like palm oil, soybean, wheat etc and hard commodities like iron ores are at their 5 year highs. Natural gas has rallied close to 50% in the past month. Crude oil prices would likely move into the 50s by early next year. With a bit of help from the resurgence of natural gas and crude prices, my 12 month target for SMM is actually 200 to 300% from current, especially after they confirm some of their multi billion dollar wind projects. So my 12 month target is 45 to 60 cents. |
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| 09-Oct-2020 17:37 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Thankfully, despite some jostling today, sanity prevails. There seems to be enough selling from SCI retail shareholders to feed everyone and keep all parties happy. Looking forward to buy some more to keep next week at or below 15 cents. As for Keppel O& M and SMM, there seems to be some unspoken arrangement between them not to bid for the same project. Also, there is more than enough biz in offshore energy and renewable globally to go around. You get a good sense of that when you see the strategic locations of their shipyards and subsidiaries globally. |
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| 09-Oct-2020 12:26 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Living quarters and eigh pipe rack modules have been lifted aboard the Energean Power FPSO hull as the construction of Energean' s FPSO destined for the Mediterranean Sea progresses in Singapore. The FPSO hull is being outfitted with topside modules at SMM&rsquo s Admiralty Yard, Singapore. Once completed the FPSO will sail away to Israel, where it will be used to develop the Karish offshore gas field. The pipe rack modules are typically 25 meters long, 6 meters wide, and 14.5 meters high, and 6 meters wide, each weighing in between 120 and 210 tonnes. The Sembcorp Marine crane barge L-3601, which has a lifting capacity of 3,600 tonnes, has been used in the operations.  Pipe Racks Installed - Credit: Energean
The Energean Power FPSO is scheduled to sail away from Singapore to Israel in summer 2021. The Karish development project is on track to deliver first gas in 2H 2021. Translating to more revenue recognition to reverse delayed revenue recognition in Q2. FY2020 should be flat profit rather than a loss. Q3 Biz update in about 2-3 weeks time. |
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| 08-Oct-2020 19:19 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Dear " 15 cents wall" , please hold on tight there for a bit longer. Let me accumulate more before you fall. |
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| 07-Oct-2020 14:27 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Yesterday' s vclume of 40+mil shares is prettyt low. Translated to only about S$6+ mil worth. And I suspect that most of it is faked transaction, left hand sell to right hand type. Interesting to see how the counter reacts when the news and announcements start flowing in. Personally, I do not think that SMM would eventually report a loss in FY2020. Maybe a flat year. Most of the first half losses is creative accounting to jawbone SMM' s minority shareholders into not rejecting the rights issue. 3rd Quarter biz update in about 2-3 weeks time.... |
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| 07-Oct-2020 09:23 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Just bought a small bunch to keep at $0.147 Wonderful value! Hope to buy more if it stays below $0.15/- |
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| 06-Oct-2020 17:30 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Although I have to say natural gas prices have been on a tear for the past month. Should help the energy companies' cashflow. Seems that the securitisation of FPSO and other energy assets is the trend now as energy companies aim to go asset lite. With SMM' s $2 billion cash hoard, they might be in a position to take equity stake in some energy/ offshore assets given the opportunity and package them later into a REIT. |
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| 06-Oct-2020 17:18 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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The crown jewel of SMM is their capability and reputation in off shore wind, which will do well irregardless of the price of crude oil and natural gas. Hope price stay below 15 cents so I could buy more in the next couple of weeks. |
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| 06-Oct-2020 02:04 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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The crown jewel of SMM is their capability and reputation in off shore wind, which happens to be the next growth frontier, whatever the price of crude oil or natural gas may be. The law of supply and demand seems to be weighing in over the last few trading days. As the selling by SCI retail shareholders dry up, the shortist, manipulator or accumulator is starting to realise that they have to bid it higher in order to accumulate more SMM shares. SMM is scheduled to give their 3rd quarter biz update in about 2 weeks time..... |
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