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| 20-Oct-2020 09:57 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Just bought a bunch at 14 to warm the cockles of my heart! 
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| 19-Oct-2020 23:04 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Will try to buy some tomo at 14.1 to keep. Truly wonderful value meal! Buy 1 burger get 2 free kind. 
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| 18-Oct-2020 23:17 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Most of the selling of SMM for the past month is likely attributed to SCI retail shareholders getting rid of their free SMM shares. To convince more SCI retail shareholders to let go of their free shares, the wizard behind the curtain who has been selling down SMM are likely also the one popping up SCI shares. Many SCI shareholders are being convinced to sell their free SMM shares because they calculated that 4.9*14.3 + 1.44 = $2.14 is about 10+% higher than SCI share price before the distribution. But frankly, I would not buy Sembcorp Industries (SCI) even at $1. While SCI' s biz is quite diverse, it is still cantered around the Singapore utilities market, electricity, water, waste etc. SCI' s profitability is more of a political decision rather than a commercial outcome. In short, the Singapore government does not allow Sembcorp and other utility players to make more than a sustenance margin. Rising cost of living has been a hot political topic over the past decade. To say yes to higher Sembcorp profit is like saying yes to higher utility bills for all Singaporeans. Not likely to happen soon until they win back Aljunied and Seng Kang GRC. The opening up of the Singapore electricity market is another stab on utility players&rsquo chest. Bear in mind that Hyflux went under when they try to get into the highly competitive and volatile " electricity" business. SCI is in a very matured business. It can be argued that almost anyone can run a power plant nowadays. You can get the contract only when you are willing undercut your competitors substantially and agree to take on a huge debt to finance or fund the project. SCI has close to $10 billion debt and make only $200-300 million on a good year. The need of a Temasek led rights issue to recapitalise SCI is high based on its current trajectory. That' s why SCI need to do an India IPO urgently to avert an impending cash crunch. If you ever deal with India Indians before, you would know that it is not easy to make money from them. SCI' s debt to equity ratio will worsen to about 250% after SMM rights issue. The $1.5bil subordinated loan to SMM, which was previously classified as an asset in SCI' s book, will have to be written off. It is like a bank writing off a bad debt. From the accounting standpoint, it is like SCI making an $1.5 billion extraordinary loss (equivalent of 6-7 years of their net profit). If you have studied the breakdown of SCI' s H1 results, you would have noticed that they are actually making a net loss even if we exclude SMM' s contribution. The main reason of the demerger is because SCI over committed itself to bill out SCM last year by offering them a $2billion subordinated loan. SCM drew $1.5 billion from it but SCI would likely be in a cash crunch if SMM draw down the remaining $500million. Therefore, the rights issue is to get SCI off the hook for the remaining $500 million and also to maximise Temasek' s direct holding in SMM. The rights issue flooded SMM with more than ample liquidity but place SCI in a worse financial shape. It is impossible for them to get further bank loan. Rolling over existing debt may be on more stringent terms. You know how bad SCI' s cashflow is when they have to announce to the world recently that they managed to secure a meagre $40 million loan to fund a solar contract. Once the selling of SMM free shares by SCI retail shareholders start to dry up in the coming weeks/ months, SCI would likely drop back towards the $1 mark. And SMM will then move towards the 45 to 60 cents range, with a bit of help from the offshore wind. JMHO (Just my humble opinion) |
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| 17-Oct-2020 22:11 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Some of you may be interested to have a look at the quarterly publication by Sembcorp Corp Comm. Fresh out of the oven https://www.sembmarine.com/scm2016/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Dolphin_Oct2020_6_highres.pdf |
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| 17-Oct-2020 22:04 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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In Feb 2020, SMM' s motto is: Sembcorp Marine provides innovative engineering solutions to the global offshore, marine and energy industries, drawing upon more than 50 years of track record. Our business units are One Team, focusing on four key capabilities: Rigs & Floaters Repairs & Upgrades Offshore Platforms and Specialised Shipbuilding. As One Sembcorp Marine, we deploy the best assets and competencies from across our global operations to take on projects of any scale and for deployment in any location. In Oct 2020, it becomes: Sembcorp Marine is an integrated brand providing innovative engineering solutions to the global offshore, marine and energy industries. Our products and solutions focus on the following areas: Gas Value Chain, Renewable Energy, Process, Advanced Drilling Rigs, Ocean Living and Maritime Security. As a global solutions provider, we deploy the best competencies across our worldwide network to take on projects of any scale and complexity, and for any operating requirements - from benign waters to ultra-deep, cold and harsh conditions. With this flexibility, we help you realise possibilities in today&rsquo s fast-changing and increasingly challenging environment. I believe those will be the areas they would be making the dough in the coming decade. Natural gas, offshore wind, renewable process. So a name change to Singapore Offshore and Renewable (SOR) sounds about right. |
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| 17-Oct-2020 15:01 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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For windfarm, there are 4 main components: Substation, Wind turbine foundation, wind turbine and specialised support vessels to support the windfarm (like the recent S$600 million contract Keppel secured) SMM can do Substation, foundation and support vessels. Substation is like a floating platform, more complex and likely higher margin Offshore wind energy continues to gain traction around the world, and a large number of wind farms are currently still under planning or pending tender results I believe many European and US utility/ energy companies do not want to do biz with the Chinese if possible (because of the fear of technology theft) if SMM and Keppel O& M can offer a competitive quote on their wind farm projects. SMM would be providing their 3rd Q biz update in about 2-3 weeks time. Hope to buy a few more bunches at 14+ cents before that. |
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| 17-Oct-2020 14:10 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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To answer St.Maximus' s question- what experience do SMM has in buidling gaint windfarm? Obviously St.Maximus has not read up on SMM at all. Best to ignore him In FY2018, SMM was awarded a contract for engineering, procurement, hook-up and commissioningworks to deliver two offshore wind farm substation topsides to Ø rsted Wind Power&rsquo s subsidiary Optimus Wind Limited, which will be deployed at the Hornsea 2 Offshore Wind Farm in the United Kingdom North Sea. In September 2019, SMM was awarded a contract with Jan De Nul n.v.to fabricate 15 jacket foundations for the Formosa 2 Offshore Wind Farm. The above projects are what they are working on now to gain first hand experience to help launch SMM into the trillion dollars offshore wind biz in the coming decades. As offshore wind market is expected to expand 10 to 20 folds in the next decade in Europe, SMM' s shipyards in UK ancd Norway will enable them to capture a big slice of the offshore wind biz. there. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 18:59 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Last year, some $530 million of Sembcorp Marines new orders related to greener solutions, including scrubber and ballast water management system retrofits, as well as gas and renewable energy projects. The Group aims to achieve 30 percent of its total income from sustainable products by 2030. With UK Sofia in the bag, I believe they would achieve the 30% target as soon as next year. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 18:55 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Sembcorp Marine wins Sustainability Award at Seatrade Maritime Awards AsiaAward honours the Group&rsquo s successful efforts of integrating sustainability goals holistically into its business operations Singapore, June 23, 2020 &ndash For putting Sustainability at the forefront of its business operations, Sembcorp Marine is delighted to receive the Sustainability Award today at Seatrade Maritime Awards Asia, an annual event celebrating the best achievements in Asia&rsquo s maritime industry. The Award lauds Sembcorp Marine&rsquo s steadfast commitment to Sustainability, which has delivered impactful outcomes through the Group&rsquo s increasingly greener focus on its products, solutions and operations, technology-enabled manpower and innovation development, and employee-led contributions to the community. Last year, some $530 million of Sembcorp Marine&rsquo s new orders related to greener solutions, including scrubber and ballast water management system retrofits, as well as gas and renewable energy projects. The Group aims to achieve 30 percent of its total income from sustainable products by 2030. At Sembcorp Marine&rsquo s flagship Tuas Boulevard Yard, the Group replaced over 5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of grid-supplied electricity with clean energy harnessed from its solar-roof. This amount of solar electricity &ndash enough to power about 1,100 four-room flats for one full year &ndash also helped Sembcorp Marine avoid over 2,100 tonnes of carbon emissions, equivalent to taking 660 cars off the road for a year. Sembcorp Marine will progressively scale up the solar power output at Tuas Boulevard Yard. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 18:00 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Yup agree laksaman57, crude oil demand is tapering in the next few decades. That is why it is boom time for SMM with its focus on renewable like offshore wind and greener natural gas. Huat Ah! with the decline in crude oil demanf. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 16:45 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Goldman Sach is not nicknamed the Giant Vampire squid for nothing. The last time they play the upside on Asian stocks in 2017/18, STI shot up to 3700 pts. When they started selling 2nd Q 2018, STI dropped back to 2800+ within months. I had witnessed first hand recently how they make a killing short selling the SIMSCI. Truly fortunate to be alive to witness all these market actions. More exciting than watching Fast and Furious. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 16:09 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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While the manipulators have the muscles to hold their positions for a long time, fundamental values will eventually win out. Just a matter of time. However, matter of time could means many months. These professional instutional traders could be small time traders from Goldman Sach or JP Morgan etc with billion of dollars in backing if need be. Small time traders because the big time traders are likely playing the stock indicies or commodity futures or bigger companies like Amazon, apple, Tesla, Alibaba, Tencent, Netflix etc. These same small time traders are likely also the same people playing other small counters like SPH, Top gloves or SIMSCI etc. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 12:29 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Retaining the Sembawang tag is a bit confusing as Sembcorp owns 0% of SMM now. SMM is bigger than Keppel O& M now after the $2.1 billion cash injection. Also, Temasek owns 42.6% of SMM and only 20% of Keppel. So SMM should rightly claim the Singapore tag. Singapore is a recognised global leader in FPSO, rigs and offshore wind. SMM should bravely claim the Singapore tag with Temasek' s backing. (Hope SMM' s mgt is monitoring this thread) On this matter, anyone is entitled to their opinion. This is JMHO. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 12:04 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Or Singapore Offshore and Renewable? Since they hardly build any ship nowadays, can do away with the marine tag. |
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| 15-Oct-2020 12:02 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Just collected a small bunch at $0.143/- Truly a gift that keeps on giving! SMM' s mgt is likely cracking their head about the name change. For me, Singapore Marine and Renewable sounds great! Nowadays, any company with renewable in their name is hot property. What do you guys think Any suggestion? |
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| 14-Oct-2020 17:26 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Thanks Danger, once again for your concern about my financial well being. As mentioned, my average is in the low 20s. If prices stay at below 15 cents for awhile, might be able to bring it closer to the 20 cents mark. And I don' t understand why would anyone goes bankrupt if he/ she buys using cash without leverage/ margin. Even if SMM goes to zero, I would not be bankrupt, probably just very upset for a while. Thanks anyway for your repeated concerns. |
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| 14-Oct-2020 16:48 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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I guess still enough selling from SCI retail shareholders to go around today. 14.4 x 4.9 +1.36 = $2.07 (still 10% higher than pre-SMM shares distribution price). Queuing to buy at 14.1 If cannot get, would try again tomo. Trade safe! 
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| 14-Oct-2020 00:54 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Personally, I had benefitted from numerous set ups by institutional traders. Looking at it from another angle, without them, we will not have so many extraordinary opportunities to make extraordinary profits. It is well documented that the average investor make far lessor than market. Some people have to make less profit or loss for me to make more profit in the investment game. If you are at a poker table and you do not know who the patsy is, then likely you are the one. I have come to the conclusion that it is very difficult for Temasek operationally to buy directly from the open market. Every purchase decision, even 1 lot, has to go through a committee meeting to prevent abuse and corruption. And there is always the risk of news leaking out and people front running. Further, if you are a director or substantial shareholder, have to make a SGX announcement even if you buy one additional lot. |
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| 14-Oct-2020 00:28 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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While the manipulators have the muscles to hold their positions for a long time, fundamental values will eventually win out. Just a matter of time. This game can carry on for quite a while longer mainly because of the rights issue structure. SMM shares are distributed free to SCI retail shareholders So they would not care very much that SCI paid 20 cents for the rights shares and sacrifice the mother shares at $1+ to pay out the free SMM shares to them. To the extent that SCI is so stretched financially that it may need a rights issue itself soon. For SIA rights share for example, if you pay $3 for it, you will not sell at any lower than $3 unless there is some major shift in the company' s fudnamentals. The longer SMM stays at 15 cents or below, the more SCI retail shareholders will be happy to sell at 18 cents or 21 cents or 24 cents when it is on route to 45 cents....The manipulators can then cover their books. I estimate that the average short price for the manipulators is around 23 to 25 cents. If they can buy back any lower than that will be trading profits for them. JMHO |
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| 13-Oct-2020 23:46 |
Seatrium
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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED
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Take it easy ADS2200, it is a free market and players can go long or short a stock as much as they like as long as they play by the trading rules. Temasek would not be too concerned until nearing 31st March 2021. I can only say that the manipulators are pro with deep pockets. On the way down til the rights issue date, they have shorted heavily and is sitting on quite a tidy profit in their books. However, at the same time, they have also accumulated a fairly large short position. Just imagine if SMM would to move higher towards 30+ cents immediately after the rights issue, they would be forced to cover their shorts at high prices and give back a huge chunk of their trading profit gained over the past months. The longer they hold prices at or below 15 cents, more people will mentally mark that as a benchmark price for SMM. So when they eventually let go of the sell pressure and allow it to move towards the 16 to 20 cents range, many will be queuing to sell to them at that price range, allowing them to cover their shorts/ books with huge gain. That is a basic trading strategy employed by most instutional traders in most asset markets, from trading futures to stocks to currencies etc |
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