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Golden Agri-Res
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GoldenAgr
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
29-Mar-2023 17:36
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Smaller player privatising
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TodaySgCny
Senior |
27-Mar-2023 14:10
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Slowly rising up.Took some profit earlier.Leave some for uptrend hopefully.Cheers | ||||
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
20-Mar-2023 18:48
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Anyone know what was the IPO price of GAR? | ||||
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
20-Mar-2023 18:46
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Wow 189,747,000 amounting to $55,026,630 was huge.
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JessTrang
Veteran |
17-Mar-2023 18:59
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Guys, is it weird on the enormous volume traded after 1700hrs @0.290? That' s a very huge volume traded! | ||||
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
13-Mar-2023 18:25
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When retails throw low they buy & they push price high to sell at profit, repeat again & again.
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
13-Mar-2023 17:54
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My guess : Big boys moving price low to sell high next few days, maybe take advantage of market sentiment.
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elenalim
Member |
13-Mar-2023 16:52
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Hi, anyone kind to share what' s the sudden sell down? | ||||
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
13-Mar-2023 11:29
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' Buy' Wilmar and Golden Agri on better performance in lower CPO price environment: RHB Khairani Afifi NoordinMon, Mar 13, 2023 &bull 11:03 AM GMT+08 &bull 21 minutes ago &bull 3 min read
  RHB expects a q-o-q decline in sector earnings in 1QFY2023 due to lower CPO ASPs and lower production in the off-peak season. Photo: Bloomberg
RHB Group Research analysts Hoe Lee Leng and Syahril Hanafiah have maintained &ldquo neutral&rdquo on the plantation sector, continuing to advocate integrated players such as Wilmar International F34 0.51% and Golden Agri-Resources E5H -3.51% as they perform better in a lower crude palm oil (CPO) environment. Hoe and Syahril note that Malaysia&rsquo s palm oil inventory dropped 6.6% m-o-m in February due to the low output season coupled with floods experienced in key states. They expect palm oil stock levels to continue declining in March as a result of low production as well as rising festive demand. " As for sector earnings, we expect a q-o-q decline in 1QFY2023, on the back of lower CPO average selling prices (ASPs) and lower production in the off-peak season," they add. The analysts highlight that they are making no changes to their CPO price assumptions of RM3,900 and RM3,500 for 2023 and 2024. In an earlier report, RHB notes that most speakers at the 2023 annual Palm & Laurics Outlook Conference & Exhibition declined to give average price forecasts for the year. Of those who did give price forecasts, the analysts saw a trend of either relatively neutral or more bullish price projects and nothing in between. Three speakers gave neutral to slightly bearish price projections ranging from RM3,760 to RM4,200 per tonne, while three others gave more bullish price projections of between RM4,000 to RM5,300 per tonne. RHB saw mixed earnings for the 4QFY2022 reporting season, with six planters in its coverage within the region booking above-expectations earnings, while give were in line and two came in below. The pure Indonesian planters saw earnings which were mostly above expectations, due to the benefit of the tax-free levy period which distorted ASPs during the period. Hoe and Syahril saw an average 4.1% output growth for planters in Malaysia in 4QFY2022. Most planters expect a recovery in output this year, ranging from mid-single digit to low double digits on the back of an improved labour workforce. The labour shortages are expected to be fully-resolved by 1HFY2023. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the analysts saw an average 12% y-o-y output growth. They note that The Association of Indonesian Palm Oil Producers' official 4QFY2022 numbers differed slightly with an 11.4% y-o-y increase, bringing FY2022 CPO growth to -0.1% YoY. For 2023, Indonesian planters are expecting a small single-digit recovery in production output, the analysts add. RHB continues to see decently high margins for players in Malaysia in 4QFY2022, albeit lower q-o-q due to the tax advantage during the Indonesian tax levy holiday. That said, margin for Indonesia&rsquo s downstream players remained weak in 4QFY2022. With the reinstatement of the tax levy mid-November 2022, there should be a reverse happening in 1QFY2023, the analysts note. RHB has " buy" calls on Wilmar and Golden Agri with target prices of $4.65 and 34 cents respectively. As at 11.01am, shares in Wilmar and Golden Agri are trading at $3.96 and 27.5 cents respectively. |
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
09-Mar-2023 16:39
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GARPY had crossed 0.29 and at 0.295 now. Hope she gathers more strength & cross 0.30. | ||||
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
08-Mar-2023 18:24
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According to Yahoo Finance : Shares Outstanding : 12.68B Float : 6.27B Held by Insiders : 49.95% Held by Institutions : 22.12% Remaining Retail (Derived) : 27.93% The free float is huge, just taking the offer as 0.35, is going to need big sum of $$$. Don' t think privatisation will be happening anytime soon.
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
06-Mar-2023 16:05
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Heading north.... | ||||
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Joelton
Supreme |
06-Mar-2023 08:44
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Golden Agri a safe haven amid uncertainty
Investor sentiment towards the integrated palm oil player has been weighed down even as it has delivered elevated levels of profitability
GOLDEN Agri-Resources reported financial numbers last week that made me want to buy its stock &ndash and, I was not alone.
Over the course of two trading days, shares in the integrated oil palm plantation group surged nearly 10 per cent on elevated volume. On Friday (Mar 3), Golden Agri : E5H 0% closed at S$0.275 &ndash up 7.8 per cent since the results were released.
Before the market opened on Tuesday, Golden Agri said its earnings for 2022 increased 64.2 per cent to US$782.1 million on a 12.3 per cent rise in revenue to US$11.4 billion. Its &ldquo underlying profit&rdquo for 2022 &ndash which excludes non-recurring items &ndash was up 52.9 per cent to US$921.9 million.
Golden Agri proposed a final dividend of 0.991 Singapore cents per share, which put its total dividend for 2022 at 1.791 Singapore cents per share. The company paid a total dividend of 1.605 Singapore cents per share for 2021.
Just before the results were released, shares in Golden Agri were trading at less than 3.1 times the company&rsquo s reported 2022 earnings, and offered a dividend yield of about 7 per cent.
Is it too late to buy the stock now? How much higher can it climb?
Besides continued robust profitability at its upstream plantations and palm oil mills businesses, Golden Agri said it benefited in 2022 from &ldquo exceptional&rdquo performance at its downstream processing and distribution businesses. On the face of it, the group&rsquo s overall earnings are very likely to decline significantly in 2023 and 2024 as its downstream margins normalise.
At the same time, concerns about palm oil prices weakening from the peak levels they hit in early 2022 have weighed on investor sentiment even as companies across the sector generally enjoyed strong profitability.
Even after its bounce last week, Golden Agri has delivered a total return of minus 10 per cent (dividends reinvested) over the past 12 months. The Straits Times Index returned 3.6 per cent during the same period.
As a result, valuations in the palm oil sector are not demanding. Golden Agri is currently trading at a more than 50 per cent discount to its book value. Forecasts by OCBC and RHB suggest Golden Agri shares are still priced at only about five or six times its 2023 and 2024 earnings.
OCBC puts the fair value of the stock at S$0.31, while RHB has a price target of S$0.34.
Going private?
The long-term profitability of commodities producers is notoriously hard to predict, of course. Companies such as Golden Agri arguably trade at single-digit earnings multiples for a good reason.
But this brings me to another investment angle on the stock: the possibility of a general offer for the company.
If companies such as Golden Agri are unable to garner a decent valuation in the public market, going private could be a way for their controlling shareholders to unlock value.
Golden Agri&rsquo s elevated profitability over the past two years has put its balance sheet in a very strong position. In a presentation deck accompanying its results announcement, the company noted that its net debt as at end-2022 was just US$142 million versus US$970 million as at end-2021.
Golden Agri&rsquo s 2021 annual report stated that entities linked to Indonesia&rsquo s Widjaja family held a deemed interest in nearly 50.6 per cent of the company&rsquo s shares.
Much would depend, however, on the Widjaja family&rsquo s view of Golden Agri&rsquo s profitability over the next couple of years. A successful privatisation bid would also hinge on the Widjaja family being prepared to offer a high enough price to minority investors.
Golden Energy and Resources : AUE -1.63% (Gear) &ndash another Widjaja family-controlled company &ndash unveiled plans late last year to delist itself on terms that some analysts and minority investors (including myself) have said are inadequate.
While Gear is still working through the process of formally putting the transaction before its shareholders, its shares have already climbed above the proposed all-cash consideration of S$0.846 per share &ndash fuelled by the strong financial performance of its businesses and widespread expectation that the terms of the delisting will be improved.
Gear closed on Friday at S$0.905.
Some investors may also remember that Indofood Agri Resources : 5JS -1.56% (IndoAgri) was the subject of a lowball general offer back in 2019.
Its parent group attempted to buy all the shares it did not already own at S$0.28 each &ndash which was a 64.9 per cent discount to IndoAgri&rsquo s book value at the time. The offer price was later raised to S$0.33 (cum dividend). But the offeror ultimately failed to cross the 90 per cent threshold.
While IndoAgri&rsquo s profitability has improved dramatically since 2019, its shares have barely budged since the offer fell through. The stock closed Friday at S$0.315.
This is just 6.4 times IndoAgri&rsquo s 2022 earnings, and a 61.1 per cent discount to its book value as at Dec 31.
Some observers may interpret this to mean that minority shareholders of IndoAgri should have meekly accepted the lowball offer back in 2019. The lesson I choose to draw from this episode is that companies such as IndoAgri do not belong in the public market, but minority investors have to be adequately compensated when these companies go private.
Risks abound
Many readers of this column may not share my views about Golden Agri, or agree with the manner I have gone about evaluating the attractiveness of its stock.
In particular, some readers will probably feel it foolhardy to invest in a company on the back of blowout earnings in a single year. Such &ldquo nowcasting&rdquo could well land a long-term investor in trouble down the road.
Yet, the bounce in Golden Agri&rsquo s shares last week versus the sell-offs suffered by DBS : D05 -0.15% and UOB : U11 -0.37% immediately after reporting record earnings for 2022 last month holds lessons for investors trying to navigate the complexities of structurally higher interest rates, heightened geopolitical uncertainties and continuing technology disruption.
Against the current backdrop of widespread uncertainties, it is perhaps the most closely followed and richly priced stalwarts that are most at risk of disappointing investors. Supposedly risky commodity stocks with deflated valuations that might continue to have the wind at their backs could turn out to be safe havens of sorts.
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
01-Mar-2023 12:54
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Bumi didn' t do well in 2nd half 2022, Mewah, GAR, FR & Wilmar all reported improved earnings. Heng ah not holding any Bumi shares at present.
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CheeryVGoh
Supreme |
01-Mar-2023 12:50
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Today GAR is gathering strength, wish reach 0.28 soon, even better if all the way to 0.29 and beyond. Cheers !
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Joelton
Supreme |
01-Mar-2023 11:39
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Golden Agri&rsquo s H2 profit rises 21.5% to US$392.4 million
PALM oil company Golden Agri-Resources : E5H 0% on Tuesday (Feb 28) reported earnings of US$392.4 million for the half year ended December 2022, up 21.5 per cent year on year from US$323 million.
Revenue for the half year rose 3.8 per cent to US$5.9 billion from US$5.7 billion previously, as higher contributions from the downstream segment (palm, laurics and others) more than offset a decline in revenue from upstream (plantations and palm oil mills).
Downstream revenue grew 12 per cent, largely due to higher selling prices, as the lifting of Indonesia&rsquo s temporary export ban on palm oil products resulted in higher sales volume in the second half.
Within the upstream segment, H2 fruit yield improved to 10.7 tonnes per hectare as the seasonal weather pattern returned to normal, although crude palm oil (CPO) price normalisation impacted the segment&rsquo s overall performance over the period.
The overall cost of sales fell 3.2 per cent to US$4.3 billion from US$4.4 billion a year ago.
Total operating expenses declined 17 per cent to US$712.1 million from US$857.9 million the previous year, as both selling expenses as well as general and administrative expenses fell across the board.
A foreign exchange loss of US$34.9 million was recorded during the half year, as opposed to a foreign exchange gain of US$41.2 million in H2 of FY2021.
Earnings per share (EPS) for H2 stood at 3.09 US cents, up 21.7 per cent from 2.54 US cents the previous year.
For FY2022, Golden Agri&rsquo s profit rose 64.2 per cent on year to US$782.1 million from US$476.2 million.
It reached an all-time high Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) of US$1.8 billion, driven by record upstream Ebitda of US$804 million over the year which is 3 per cent higher than in FY2021, said the group.
Revenue grew 12.3 per cent to US$11.4 billion from US$10.2 billion in FY2021 on the back of CPO market price appreciation.
EPS for the full year rose 64.2 per cent to 6.17 US cents from 3.75 US cents previously.
The board has proposed a final dividend of 0.991 Singapore cents per share, to be distributed on May 18 upon receiving approval from Golden Agri shareholders at the upcoming 2023 annual general meeting.
While this is 8 per cent lower from the previous year&rsquo s 1.077 Singapore cents, it brings the group&rsquo s total dividend for FY2022 to 1.791 Singapore cents, 12 per cent higher than FY2022&rsquo s total dividend of 1.605 Singapore cents.
In a discussion on the company&rsquo s latest financial results, its executives said the group has a targeted capital expenditure of up to US$240 million this year.
This amount will be used primarily for the likes of replanting, expansion of kernel crushing and oleochemical plants, enhancement of downstream facilities, and carbon emission reduction initiatives.
Golden Agri&rsquo s director for investor relations Richard Fung said that Golden Agri&rsquo s production this year is expected to be flat, compared to 2022, because of the company&rsquo s replanting programme.
&ldquo We are very keen on continuing to grow our production volumes in the future... and then we expect to achieve that through intensification &ndash getting more oil from the same plants &ndash and we are doing that by using higher-yielding seeds,&rdquo he said.
For the broader palm oil industry in Malaysia and Indonesia, Fung said there is likely to be &ldquo limited growth&rdquo in production this year. He estimates production will grow only 1 to 3 per cent this year.
The palm oil industry in 2022 was riddled with volatility, with Indonesia&rsquo s temporary export bans, as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Fung said Golden Agri is positioned to ride through the volatility, with its &ldquo soil-to-table&rdquo business model.
He explained that the export ban in 2022, which applied only to certain products, represented about 30 per cent of Golden Agri&rsquo s total sales volume.
&ldquo We have a broad portfolio of products, and many of them are the higher-end, refined products which the export ban did not apply to,&rdquo he said.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has helped to prop up CPO prices due to the disruption to the global supply of sunflower oil.
CPO is a close substitute for sunflower oil and the switch from sunflower to palm oil has pushed CPO prices past RM7,000 (S$2,113.72) per tonne, for the first time. Fung said there was aggressive buying from &ldquo large&rdquo palm oil consumers like China and India.
But prices have since tapered off to a &ldquo more sustainable level&rdquo of around US$900 per tonne, and Fung said he expects them to remain at this level for the rest of the year.
The war has also pushed up prices of fertiliser, which has resulted in a higher cost of production for Golden Agri. In 2022, the company&rsquo s cost of production was up by an average of 8 per cent, Fung said.
This year, the group is bracing for a further 5 per cent increase in cost of production, but Fung believes fertiliser prices have peaked and are now starting to normalise.
Beyond 2023, Golden Agri said the long-term industry outlook remains favourable. The industry is underpinned by palm oil&rsquo s high productivity, competitive price and wide range of uses, along with continuing extreme weather conditions that also support prices, it said.
Additional demand from Indonesia&rsquo s B35 commitment to provide support in the expected global economic slowdown.
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Everyday
Elite |
28-Feb-2023 08:06
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Solid performance, Golden Agri records an all-time high EBITDA of US$1.8 billion in 2022 Golden Agri-Resources reaps the benefits of its integrated business model Proposed final dividend of 0.991 Singapore cents per share for a total of 1.791 Singapore cents per share for full year 2022, 12 percent higher than in the previous year |
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spursfan
Elite |
28-Feb-2023 07:56
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FY2022 Media release https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/GJCM0MASALVYO0H5/748131_GAR03-28-02-2023-FY2022%20Press%20Release.pdf |
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Catrade
Master |
19-Feb-2023 21:47
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Palm oil price again up to MYR 4,131 per ton, companies like Golden Agri, Bumitama Agri, First Resources & Wilmar Intl should benefit handsomely. | ||||
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Catrade
Master |
12-Jan-2023 12:09
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Jokowi, Anwar Ibrahim Ready to Fight Oil Palm Discriminations TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesian President Joko " Jokowi" Widodo and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim agreed to work together to combat discrimination against palm oil. Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers of the commodity. " We also agreed to strengthen cooperation through the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) to increase the market for palm oil and fight discrimination against palm oil," Jokowi said in a press statement on Anwar Ibrahim' s visit at the Bogor Palace, Monday, January 9. PM Anwar Ibrahim met Jokowi Widodo today at the Bogor Presidential Palace. His visit is focused on issues related to borders, trade cooperation between the two countries, migrant workers and palm oil (CPO). This is Anwar' s first official visit to Indonesia. President Jokowi did not mention the European Union in his statement on discrimination. The EU is planning to phase out palm oil-based fuels by 2030 because, citing CPO' s link to deforestation. |
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