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Singtel Bullish???
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destinykraze
Elite |
18-Apr-2017 09:19
Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception" |
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Well well, guess what. TPG(ASX) - 18% on the first trading day after spectrum auction. Guess what. Singtel seeing short covering! As if this wasn' t expected. |
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ranger109
Member |
18-Apr-2017 08:07
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Yes. market share about 22.7%
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investshare
Supreme |
18-Apr-2017 07:39
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Singtel in Australia is like M1 in Singapore? | ||||
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moneyspinner
Veteran |
18-Apr-2017 06:12
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Why TPG makes Telstra and it' s shareholders nervous By The Australian dated April 14, 2017 After Wednesday&rsquo s gut-wrenching 7.5 per cent plunge in Telstra&rsquo s share price, which wiped $4 billion off its market capitalisation, the obvious question is whether investors overreacted to the news that TPG plans to build the fourth mobile network. There are two reasons as to why the market may have got it right and why it might even been too conservative in its response. TPG, having spent a jaw-dropping $1.3 billion to acquire two blocks of 700 MHz spectrum, plans to spend $600 million to build a network that it says will cover about 80 per cent of the population and which will break even with about 500,000 subscribers. While there is considerable scepticism that a network can be built for only $600 million &mdash less than the three incumbents each spend each year in just maintaining their networks &mdash no-one underestimates TPG as a competitor. With TPG&rsquo s David Teoh saying that the group will be &ldquo extremely aggressive&rsquo &rsquo in its pricing and may even offer free trials for up to six months, the new operator is clearly going to have a material impact on the market and the existing operators. It will, at the outset, have no existing customer base to protect.
The operator whose customer base is most vulnerable to price-based competition is Vodafone, which has about 17 per cent of the market. Moreover, TPG already operates a &ldquo virtual&rsquo &rsquo mobile business with about 450,000 customers, 250,000 of them on the Vodafone network and 200,000 on Optus&rsquo s network. If it can shift them onto its own infrastructure Vodafone, and Optus (which has about a 30 per cent market share), will lose the wholesale margin and TPG will be close to break-even. That is, however, a market share/volume issue. In terms of profitability Telstra, with a 53 per cent market share and a pricing premium, has the most to lose in a price-war ignited by TPG&rsquo s entry to the sector. Last financial year Telstra&rsquo s mobile business generated about $4.4 billion of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), with an EBITDA margin of 42 per cent. A Goldman Sachs analysis of the potential impact of TPG&rsquo s entry to the sector said it was likely to drag industry pricing lower and put the average revenue per user (ARPU) Telstra generates under pressure. A 10 per cent decline in Telstra&rsquo s mobile ARPU would impact 2017-18 EBITDA by about $631 million it said. That&rsquo s without assuming any loss of subscribers. The loss of 14 per cent or so of its key business&rsquo s EBITDA and about 6 per cent of the total group&rsquo s EBITDA of about $10.5 billion would, if it occurred, clearly be very material and have been a big factor in the gut response of the market to the TPG news. There is also, however, another fear at play. TPG is only seeking network coverage of 80 per cent of the population, avoiding costly and unprofitable investment outside the profitable urban centres. It says it will seek, but isn&rsquo t banking on, a roaming deal with one of the incumbents. It also said that, if the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission declared Telstra&rsquo s mobile network, it would be a &ldquo massive plus.&rsquo &rsquo The ACCC is very close to an interim decision on domestic roaming and there was a view in the aftermath of TPG&rsquo s announcement that the prospect of a new entrant might tip the balance of the debate about roaming towards a declaration. The ACCC is always keen to encourage competition, particularly competition to Telstra, and declaring domestic roaming and guaranteeing TPG access to rural and regional areas via Telstra or Optus&rsquo s network would give TPG national coverage and a leg-up in the urban areas among consumers who value near-ubiquitous coverage across the continent. Telstra&rsquo s price premium in urban markets flows from it superior network coverage, which is why it has invested so heavily in continuing to build out the network in regional Australia and why Optus, in recent years, has been spending heavily to close the gap even though many regions are sub-economic at best. A declaration would therefore give Vodafone, with the smallest coverage among the incumbents, and TPG a big leg-up in the urban markets where the sector generates its profit. At a superficial level it could be concluded that TPG&rsquo s entry to the sector does tip the balance of the debate. At a more fundamental level, however, it alters nothing. Telstra and Optus, which have nothing to gain and a lot to lose from mandated domestic roaming, have warned that they will stop investing outside urban Australia if their networks are declared. In the past three years Telstra has invested more than $5 billion in its network and Optus nearly $2 billion in the past two years. Both have plans for major investments in rural and regional areas that will be abandoned if the ACCC imposes domestic roaming on one or both of them. They have also warned that the current uniform national pricing that they pursue &mdash essentially a cross-subsidy from urban customers to regional subscribers &mdash would be threatened by regulated access to roaming. TPG&rsquo s ambitions don&rsquo t change the basic equation confronting the ACCC. A declaration equals more competition in urban areas by removing the competitive advantage Telstra and Optus have acquired by investing heavily in expanding their national coverage. Optus&rsquo actions demonstrate that Vodafone &mdash and TPG &mdash could do the same but have chosen not to. The other half of the equation is that a declaration would also equal less investment in expanding or even maintaining the Telstra and Optus networks outside the profitable urban areas. There would be no incentive to do so &mdash to add sites that lose money in scarcely populated regions &mdash if there were no competitive advantage to gain. The loss of a competitive edge they invested in and more intense competition in the cities from the addition of a fourth player with a cut-price mindset could result in the unpleasant outcome, for regional Australia, of higher prices and degrading, or at least not improving, network quality. With 5G on the horizon, there is also a risk of a two-tiered service, with 5G enabling the &ldquo internet of things&rsquo &rsquo in urban Australia and the regions left with 3G and some 4G services. With estimates that a declaration could cost Telstra more than $500 million of earnings, even the suggestion that the TPG entry to the sector might influence the ACCC&rsquo s decision would clearly be material to its share price and value and that was a conclusion that some in the market reached instantly on Wednesday. Thus, the combination of the impact of TPG on pricing and the regulatory environment, if combined, could equate to more than $1 billion a year of Telstra&rsquo s EBITDA, or roughly 10 per cent of its total EBITDA. Given the significance of the mobile business to Telstra&rsquo s post-national broadband network future &mdash it will be the core of Telstra&rsquo s long term earnings &mdash it isn&rsquo t at all surprising that the market in Telstra shares (TLS) shuddered on Wednesday. |
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moneyspinner
Veteran |
18-Apr-2017 06:01
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By The Australian dated April 12, 2017 TPG Telecom plans new mobile network, pays $1.3 billion in spectrum auction TPG Telecom has unveiled plans to build a $2 billion mobile network, with the telco raising $400 million from the market to become the fourth mobile operator in Australia. TPG, which operates fibre-optic networks offering broadband and communications services, plans to spend about $600 million to roll out a network over three years and expects to achieve 80 per cent population coverage. The long-awaited mobile play from TPG (TPM) comes after it splashed out $1.3 billion to pick up two lots of crucial spectrums at the latest 700 MHz spectrum auction, which has delivered a total windfall of nearly $1.6 billion to the federal government. The final auction figure blows the reserve price of around $857 million out of the water and it&rsquo s an outcome delivered entirely by TPG breaking the bank to buy the spectrum. Industry sources told The Australian the purchase is the most expensive spectrum buy in recent history.
TPG has secured 2 x 10 MHz for $1.3 billion, while Vodafone Hutchison Australia has picked up 2 x 5 MHz for $286m. The telco&rsquo s boss David Teoh hailed the buy as a landmark moment for the company&rsquo s future in Australia. &ldquo We are uniquely positioned to leverage our success in the Australian fixed-line broadband market to drive the next phase of growth for TPG&rsquo s shareholders and bring new competition to the Australian mobile market,&rdquo he said in a statement. &ldquo We believe that our mobile strategy will be complementary to our ongoing fixed line business, with the ability to bundle mobile and fixed services expected to have a beneficial effect on our already low fixed services.&rdquo Mr Teoh flagged TPG&rsquo s potential entry in the mobile race last year, citing the need for more competition in the market. However its move to pay $1.26 billion has caught the industry by surprise. It has also spooked Telstra&rsquo s shareholders, with the incumbent telco&rsquo s shares down 6 per cent at the open. With its mobile margins thinning the entry of a cost-competitive mobile player like TPG is widely expected to put the squeeze on Telstra. The telco picked up 2× 20 MHz of the 700 MHz spectrum band across Australia, as well as 2× 40 MHz pairs of spectrum in the 2.5GHz spectrum band for $1.3bn in the 2013 auction. However, it was prevented from participating in the latest auction. TPG picked spectrum in the 700 MHz and 2.5 GHz bands in the 2013 auction but was not expected to have the ammunition to compete against Vodafone and Optus this time around. Goldman Sachs analyst Kane Hannan said last week that a combination of time constraints and an immediate focus on building a metro-focused mobile network was likely to see TPG pass on the opportunity. TPG, which is already building a mobile business in Singapore, also indicated last month that it wasn&rsquo t keen on raising fresh capital to fund its bid. TPG has now changed its tune, with the telco saying that it will now spend $600m to roll out a network over the next three years to cover 80 per cent of the population. The $1.3bn bill for the spectrum will be paid in three annual instalments. The spectrum licence commences from April 1 2018 and expires on December 31 2029. The network will be funded by a combination of existing and new debt facilities and operating cash flow as well as the $400 million raising at a fixed price of $5.25 per new share. TPG&rsquo s major shareholders David Teoh and Washington H Soul Pattinson have pre-committed to take up their full pro-rata entitlements of $138m and $101m respectively. Meanwhile Vodafone, which was widely seen as the frontrunner in the spectrum race, has bought 2 x 5 MHz of spectrum at $1.25 per MHz, per head of population. The acquisition is on the same terms VHA proposed to government in 2015 and the telco has also renewed its s2100 MHz spectrum holding for $544 million, including 2 x 25 MHz in Sydney and Melbourne. &ldquo Certainty over the 2100 MHz spectrum further reduces the need for incremental spectrum in the next few years,&rdquo the telco said. &ldquo In metropolitan areas, we now have the second largest metropolitan low-band spectrum holding, and the largest holdings in the key 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz bands.&rdquo Optus which was also competing, failed to pick up any spectrum, with a company spokeswoman saying the telco was unwilling to secure it any cost. &ldquo We need the spectrum but not at that price.&rdquo The successful auction finally puts to rest the 700 MHz spectrum, crucial for 4G mobile services, left over from the original &ldquo digital dividend&rdquo auction, which failed to deliver the desired results. The Australian Communications and Media Authority, which conducted the auction, said the entire process had run without fault. &ldquo The sale of the remaining unallocated portion of the 700 MHz &lsquo digital dividend&rsquo spectrum brings an important chapter in Australian economic reform to a successful close,&rdquo acting ACMA chairman Richard Bean said. &ldquo It completes the digital dividend process begun in the 1990s, with the progressive conversion of free-to-air television from analog to digital technology enabling much better TV and a massive boost to high-speed wireless broadband in Australia.&rdquo |
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Dinodx
Member |
17-Apr-2017 22:30
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TPG's debt is scary... over 1 billion. Later same fate as starhub
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BetterStill
Veteran |
17-Apr-2017 22:04
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I squat at $3.65 :) see how low it can go this time T_T
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destinykraze
Elite |
17-Apr-2017 21:49
Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception" |
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Shorts for SGX these past few trading days dropped from $212m to today' s $93m. Singtel' s short selling of 21 million shares fell to today' s 1million share. See how SGX handles better than expected data for multiple countries tmr. |
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leongyan
Master |
17-Apr-2017 12:25
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everything is jittery seeing past few days of north korea event. Market is down. Suggest sideline until geo poitical factors are clearer
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MekMiRic
Member |
17-Apr-2017 12:24
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hi.
any views on this morning's volume? seems low compared to last week. |
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seanpent
Supreme |
17-Apr-2017 09:08
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anyone waiting for the sub 3.70 level ? not sure if the 3.75 queues genuine ?
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jeremyow
Master |
13-Apr-2017 15:08
Yells: "Passionate business investor" |
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Haha! If one goes under the same Australian product review website and look up Optus broadband and mobile reviews, the ratings is about equally bad around 1.5 out of 5 stars for both Optus broadband and mobile reviews by customers. A small sample size of customer reviews from one particular review website may not represent the overall review for an entire company' s products and services offerings. In this case, from this same review website, there is no difference in the product and service ratings for both Optus and TPG which are equally bad if you consider 1.5 to 1.6 out 5 stars as not impressive at all. But again, this is only a small sample size review stats.
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ranger109
Member |
13-Apr-2017 14:54
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Aus national telco Telstar' s share price down by 9%. SingTel has to deal with TPG in both Singapore and Aus.
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BetterStill
Veteran |
13-Apr-2017 14:33
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Heard both parties ready for the show, Donald Trump and KIM Jong Un. | ||||
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moneyspinner
Veteran |
13-Apr-2017 14:31
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Theré was a massive short sell of 21 million shares done at an average price of $3.81 yesterday. Traders are now shorting this stock big time!😳 |
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ranger109
Member |
13-Apr-2017 11:40
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TPG And Vodafone Just Bought The Last Of The 700MHz Spectrum For $1.5 Billion. Can Singtel improve Optus revenue without 700MHz spectrum ? |
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ranger109
Member |
13-Apr-2017 11:31
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TPG Telecom has unveiled plans to build a $2 billion mobile network, with the telco raising $400 million from the market to become the fourth mobile operator in Australia.. |
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leongyan
Master |
13-Apr-2017 11:25
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Cust care and satisfation is key. On boarding and porting over process got to be good also. Lastly network reliability is another key. Pricing wise is all commercials so that is easy to orchestrate. If the have deep pockets, all the above can be achieved if they hire the right people and put in the right team.
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destinykraze
Elite |
13-Apr-2017 11:21
Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception" |
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Mobile review for TPG. http://www.productreview.com.au/p/tpg-mobile.html So, I seriously don' t get where is all this hype coming from. Especially, when things like these do not have any immediate impact for Singtel. I only see geopolitical tensions as the only reason and this may soon change...
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destinykraze
Elite |
13-Apr-2017 11:11
Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception" |
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Sorry, I only look at fundamentals and customer satisfaction. TPG is going for 薄 利 多 销 , low-cost, low-profit margin strategy. That is good and all, only if you have some sort of quality assurance. In this age, being cheap is not good enough, if the service you are giving is sloppy and inadequate you would be squeezed out quick enough. I simply don' t see TPG coming on top in Singapore FOR SURE. With limited spectrum and budget, how good will their island coverage be, it remains to be seen. How they manage their existing business can be seen below. http://www.productreview.com.au/p/tpg-broadband.html
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