I believe this is the most important sentence in the recent financial report - " In FY2024, the Group secured a total of 20 new contracts with an aggregate provisional contract sum of approximately S$172.7 million, with varying expected completion dates between April 2024 and March 2030."

 

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/T4LDMWKIKBTOEWY5/ef2fa0584128e500fb7d7e76517cd79c2482106a7df2284f617c06baf123c5ce

This is beneficial for Alpina Solar' s business. These developments will ultimately redirect attention to the solar sector, leading to an appropriate valuation for its operations, which will, in turn, contribute to an overall higher valuation for the company.

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/apac/news-releases/peak-energy-acquires-solar-rooftop-project-in-singapore---enters-into-long-term-virtual-power-purchase-agreement-with-arkema-302388311.html

Alpina reverses into earnings of $2.4 mil for FY2024 due to growth in construction contracts

 

https://www.invest-alpha.sg/view& id=957

As more HDB blocks switched to Smart Meter, it will benefit Alpina since it is one of their core business.

 

" ...Meanwhile, data from the new smart electric sub-meters &ndash to be installed in the consumer switch rooms of HDB blocks &ndash will allow town councils to compare energy usage across HDB blocks and track the demand and supply for individual blocks in the estate.

 

The data collected will also help town councils optimise maintenance cycles of the common services, as well as detect anomalies such as equipment faults, to minimise downtime..."

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/heat-reflective-paint-initiative-to-be-rolled-out-to-all-hdb-estates-by-2030

There might be a rush to build more solar panel in 2025, due to the " EMA' s aim is to potentially achieve 1.5GWp of solar deployment by 2025, and at least 2 GWp by 2030."

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-solar-energy-deployment-cop28-grace-fu-parliament-4036886

The interesting thing about the contracts are that most of them are for maintenance which could be recurring into the future as well.

 

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/V3YT011B2VT8ZKKH/2ebb12d1b7cca8f7469bfecfb59b4dbbac29324119a0a5db80f990a7f4106ac8

Great! New award of contracts!

 

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/V3YT011B2VT8ZKKH/2ebb12d1b7cca8f7469bfecfb59b4dbbac29324119a0a5db80f990a7f4106ac8

The solar industry in both the U.S. and overseas appears to be experiencing a downturn. The Invesco Solar ETF has decreased by 26% over the past year. This trend could benefit Alpina, as a solar panel installer, since lower industry performance might lead to reduced solar panel prices. Consequently, this could lower Alpina' s procurement costs, potentially increasing their profit margins in the future.

 

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/invesco-solar-etf-drops-deutsche-bank-sees-a-scaling-back-of-some-incentives-3705721

This is certainly beneficial for the company that installs solar panels. As the U.S. begins to reduce its purchases of solar panels from Southeast Asian countries, there will likely be an oversupply of suppliers, leading to a decrease in solar panel prices. Consequently, more people will be inclined to purchase solar panels, resulting in an increase in installations.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/us-sets-tariffs-for-solar-panels-from-south-east-asian-nations

This HDB initiative likely stems from previous smart metering contracts with Alpina. Notably, the competitive landscape in this sector suggests that Alpina is a key player. As more HDB projects are developed in the future, Alpina is expected to secure additional business opportunities.

 

https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/our-role/smart-and-sustainable-living/smart-hdb-town-page/hdb-smart-home-exhibition

More and more ideas to suggest Solar has a definite place in Singapore. This will be beneficial to Alpina.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-clears-20-billion-power-061914679.html

This strengthens the company' s prospects by suggesting that in the future, the solar energy generated may not only be for public consumption but also for sale. The solar industry is rapidly expanding in Singapore, which benefits Alpina' s business significantly.

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/microsoft-buy-solar-power-singapore-public-buildings

The current order book, along with existing recurring income, could represent the company&rsquo s earnings for the remainder of 2024. However, the consortium contract worth $115 million is anticipated to begin in 2025 and run through 2028. Typically, when a contract starts, a significant portion of the earnings is recognized right away. As a result, I expect the first half of 2025 to be strong.

 

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/602HMFORVOBPKTIU/eadec31eef856ebd4ab167ec50816d7fff0e655f78c2b60fc24f9c1d6b4eef19

This is my thought process of how this company will change - revenue will increase due to the order book and earnings will follow. Subsequently the investment property will also allow them to reduce operating expenses. Soon, they will be constantly generating operating cashflow which is much higher than the earnings due to the higher depreciation. They will be growing cash and soon dividend will increase.

 

This will be the track record for the next 2 years.

 

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/CCQKN8CTQLB9BE0E/9d087a8c81847a840ed1d5593f593ed95e1575e9129f0b072570d59ad8bed4cf

As per article, " In FY2023, Alpina announced that it has secured a total of 21 contracts with aggregate provisional contract sum of approximately S$251.1 million.

 

More recently in June 2024, the Group announced that it participated in the tender alongside a consortium and the consortium was successfully awarded a contract worth approximately $115.7 million to provide integrated facilities management (IFM) services for a tertiary education institution in Singapore. This contract is set to commence in January 2025 and is expected to be completed by December 2028, with an option for the customer to extend the contract for an additional 4 years and 3 months.

 

The strong order book expansion over the past 2 years provides good visibility for the Group&rsquo s revenue pipeline ahead."

 

The next few years revenue is secured. This will likely push the company to become profitable again. Moving forward in a lower interest rate environment, the company will definitely grow bigger.