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ocbc buyers fight back from the shortists
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
18-Mar-2025 11:43
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It's understandable that the news about China?s "烂 尾 楼 " (unfinished building crisis), "躺 平 " (lying flat movement), "摆 烂 " (giving up), and migration trends?like Chinese going to the U.S. via Mexico, or Hong Kongers moving to the UK?has caused anxiety among investors. The portrayal of these situations could make it seem like a mass exodus or a decline in confidence in China?s future. Additionally, reports of Temasek reducing its exposure to China and shifting investments to India might have amplified these fears.
However, the current reversal, where capital is slowly moving back to China as its economy recovers, suggests that investors are reassessing the situation. Several factors could be driving this shift: 1. Economic Recovery: China has implemented policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting growth, particularly in sectors like technology and consumption. This could reassure investors that the country is regaining its footing. 2. Government Support: The Chinese government has introduced new measures to combat deflation and stimulate consumption, which is critical for long-term growth. This could renew investor confidence in China?s potential for recovery. 3. Opportunities in China: As global markets face uncertainty, China?s large domestic market and government-backed growth strategies might be appealing again. Investors may feel that returning to China offers a higher return potential, especially with the rebound in the stock market and strong fundamentals in certain sectors. 4. China's Role in Global Supply Chains: Despite some setbacks, China still plays a critical role in global supply chains, making it a strategic area for investment. Foreign companies might look to take advantage of China's vast consumer base, which is still recovering after the pandemic. 5. Geopolitical Shifts: With rising tensions between the U.S. and China, there could be a growing sentiment among investors that China?s economic growth might diverge from the Western-dominated model, offering unique opportunities to capitalize on its domestic-led growth. The shift away from China by large institutional investors like Temasek was a strategic move considering the macroeconomic and political climate, but as China shows signs of recovery, it's possible that some of those same investors, or others, will look to return. Ultimately, as China's economy stabilizes, investor sentiment is likely to fluctuate, with some seeking to capitalize on new opportunities. The overall sentiment is slowly shifting from fear to cautious optimism, as the recovery picks up momentum. However, this return will be measured and dependent on continued policy support, economic indicators, and geopolitical stability. |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
18-Mar-2025 11:20
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Between 2019 and 2023, China experienced significant capital outflows, primarily due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. In September 2023, net capital outflows reached approximately $75 billion, the highest monthly level since January 2016.
However, as of early 2025, China's economy has shown signs of recovery. The stock market has rebounded, with large-cap stocks outperforming U.S. markets, driven by renewed government support for the tech industry. Additionally, the government has introduced consumer trade-in schemes to boost domestic consumption, offering subsidies ranging from 15% to 20% on various products. These positive developments have begun to restore investor confidence. In 2025, Chinese large-cap stocks saw their best annual start since 2002, outperforming U.S. markets. This resurgence is partly attributed to renewed government support for the tech industry, which has sparked interest in previously undervalued tech stocks. As a result, some of the capital that left China between 2019 and 2023 is beginning to flow back, attracted by the improving economic environment and investment opportunities. However, the pace of this reversal is tempered by ongoing global economic uncertainties and China's need for structural reforms to sustain growth. In summary, while substantial capital outflows occurred from 2019 to 2023, recent economic improvements have started to reverse this trend, with capital inflows gradually returning as China's economy recovers. |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
18-Mar-2025 11:12
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As the more and more America people suffer from trump tariff
The Federal Reserve's response to an economic recession, particularly in the context of new tariffs set to take effect on April 2, involves a complex assessment of various economic indicators. Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Economic Growth The implementation of tariffs can lead to increased costs for imported goods, contributing to higher inflation. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, new tariffs could add a minimum of 0.5 percentage points to core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. This inflationary pressure complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate adjustments. Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates As of the latest reports, the Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate levels, adopting a cautious approach due to mixed economic signals. While there are concerns about slowing economic growth, recent data also indicates a spike in inflation, partly driven by tariffs. This dual challenge makes the Fed hesitant to cut rates immediately, as doing so could exacerbate inflationary trends. Market Expectations and Economic Indicators Financial markets are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions, especially in light of the upcoming tariffs and potential recession indicators. Investors anticipate that the Fed might hold rates steady in the short term and consider cuts in the fall if economic conditions deteriorate further. However, the recent uptick in inflation adds complexity to this outlook, as the Fed aims to balance supporting growth without fueling further inflation. Conclusion In summary, while the Federal Reserve typically considers cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy during a recession, the current environment's inflationary pressures, partly due to new tariffs, make such decisions more complex. The Fed is likely to adopt a cautious approach, closely monitoring economic indicators before making any significant policy changes. |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
18-Mar-2025 08:56
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HSBC Holdings is exploring the sale of approximately A$13 billion (US$8.6 billion) in Australian home loans as part of its ongoing global restructuring efforts. This move aligns with HSBC's strategy to streamline operations and optimize its asset portfolio.
In recent years, HSBC has been actively managing its exposure to various real estate markets. For instance, the bank reduced its total China real estate exposure to US$9.4 billion in the second quarter of 2024, down from US$21.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Additionally, HSBC has taken steps to tighten risk management at its Hong Kong unit, Hang Seng Bank, due to concerns over potential increases in bad loans amid economic headwinds and challenges in China's property sector. The potential sale of the Australian mortgage portfolio is part of HSBC's broader strategy to adapt to changing market conditions and focus on regions and sectors that align with its long-term objectives. |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
18-Mar-2025 08:31
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OCBC Bank has postponed its plans to redevelop its Chulia Street property, citing several economic factors that make the timing less favorable. The bank's CEO, Helen Wong, announced the delay during an earnings briefing on February 26, 2025, stating that there is currently no timeline for the redevelopment, but the bank continues to explore possibilities.
sg.finance.yahoo.com zaobao.com.sg While specific reasons for the postponement were not detailed in the announcement, it is plausible that economic considerations such as high material and labor costs, potential slowdowns in major economies like the U.S., and challenges in securing tenants could have influenced the decision. These factors can significantly impact the feasibility and profitability of large-scale redevelopment projects. Previously, in April 2024, OCBC had confirmed that it was exploring the redevelopment of its properties at 63 and 65 Chulia Street, as well as 18 Church Street, aiming to rejuvenate a strategic area in Singapore's central business district. The bank emphasized that any redevelopment plans would include preserving the rich heritage of the OCBC Centre, a landmark designed by the late renowned architect IM Pei. forums.condosingapore.com+10sg.finance.yahoo.com+10businesstimes.com.sg+10 finance.yahoo.com+7thenyjournals.com+7businesstimes.com.sg+7 Given the current economic climate, OCBC has opted to defer the redevelopment plans until conditions become more favorable.Exactly. Spending $2 billion now, with high material and labor costs, plus uncertainty in the U.S. economy and office space demand, seems like a bad bet. The risk of Chulia Street becoming a "white elephant" is real, especially if it struggles to attract tenants in a slowing economy. OCBC is playing it smart?better to wait for a more favorable market than rush into a costly redevelopment that might not generate strong returns. Their current HQ is still a landmark, and they can always revisit the project when conditions improve. |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
17-Mar-2025 15:00
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Sherman Kwek can take a two-pronged approach: (1) Immediate catalysts like asset sales to unlock value quickly and (2) Longer-term restructuring similar to what DBS Land did before merging into CapitaLand.
1. Immediate Catalysts: Asset Sales & Cash Unlocking To restore confidence and provide near-term upside, CDL should quickly monetize key assets and use the proceeds wisely. A. Sell Non-Core Assets & Monetize Prime Properties Divest underperforming assets in China, where the property market is still struggling, and reallocate capital to stronger markets. Unlock value from hotels and hospitality assets, especially in regions with high demand post-pandemic. Sell stakes in mature properties while keeping management contracts, similar to how CapitaLand monetized assets via its REITs. B. Strategic Stake Sales in Subsidiaries or JV Buyouts Consider selling part of Millennium & Copthorne Hotels to a strategic investor or listing some hotel assets as a hospitality REIT. Monetize partial stakes in joint ventures (JVs) to raise funds while keeping long-term exposure. C. Share Buybacks & Special Dividends If CDL receives a windfall from asset sales, it can initiate aggressive share buybacks to boost shareholder value at depressed prices. A special dividend would signal confidence and attract investors looking for stability. 2. Longer-Term Restructuring: "DBS Land-Style" Transformation For sustained value creation, CDL must undergo a deep transformation akin to DBS Land?s strategy before its CapitaLand merger. A. Shift Towards an Asset-Light, High-ROE Model Instead of holding too many physical properties, CDL could restructure into a fund manager & developer hybrid like CapitaLand Investment. Establish a private real estate investment platform where CDL manages assets for institutions while earning recurring fees. B. Potential Merger or Privatization If the restructuring is successful, CDL could merge its property development and investment arms into a more scalable structure, similar to how DBS Land was absorbed into CapitaLand. A privatization at current depressed valuations would allow Kwek to restructure CDL away from public scrutiny and relist a leaner, stronger entity later. C. Strengthen Overseas Expansion with a Focus on High-Growth Cities Singapore remains core, but CDL must also build a strong, sustainable overseas pipeline in resilient markets (e.g., UK, Japan, Australia) rather than overcommitting to China. Focus on recurring income from rental assets rather than cyclical property sales. Conclusion: Announce a Clear Dual-Track Strategy at AGM At the AGM, Kwek should: 1. Announce immediate asset sales & cash unlock plans (e.g., hotel stake sale, China asset divestment). 2. Outline a 3-5 year restructuring roadmap towards an asset-light model, focusing on fund management and recurring income. 3. Commit to shareholder value creation through buybacks, dividends, and strategic reinvestment. If executed well, this approach could re-rate CDL?s valuation quickly while positioning it for sustainable long-term growth. |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
17-Mar-2025 14:23
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近 期 ， 美 股 大 幅 下 挫 ， 引 发 了 对 美 国 经 济 重 要 支 柱 ??富 人 消 费 的 担 忧 。 美 国 经 济 高 度 依 赖 高 收 入 群 体 的 消 费 支 出 ， 收 入 最 高 的 10%人 群 的 消 费 支 出 几 乎 占 所 有 消 费 者 支 出 的 一 半 。 然 而 ， 富 人 阶 层 的 财 富 与 股 市 表 现 密 切 相 关 ， 股 市 下 跌 可 能 削 弱 他 们 的 消 费 信 心 ， 进 而 对 整 体 经 济 造 成 重 大 影 响 。
news.qq.com+1wallstreetcn.com+1 wallstreetcn.com+1finance.sina.com.cn+1 近 期 ， 标 普 500指 数 较 2月 份 高 点 下 跌 逾 10%， 进 入 技 术 性 回 调 区 域 。 专 家 指 出 ， 股 市 下 跌 可 能 导 致 高 收 入 群 体 削 减 开 支 ， 进 而 影 响 整 体 经 济 增 长 。 此 外 ， 消 费 者 信 心 指 数 也 出 现 下 滑 ， 包 括 最 富 裕 的 三 分 之 一 消 费 者 ， 部 分 原 因 是 关 税 威 胁 带 来 的 不 确 定 性 。 零 售 商 如 塔 吉 特 （ Target） 等 报 告 2月 需 求 疲 软 ， 消 费 者 正 在 权 衡 关 税 政 策 的 影 响 。 cn.wsj.com wsj.com+2wallstreetcn.com+2finance.sina.com.cn+2 finance.sina.com.cn 总 体 而 言 ， 股 市 下 跌 对 富 人 消 费 的 影 响 可 能 对 美 国 经 济 产 生 深 远 影 响 ， 值 得 持 续 关 注 。 Elon Musk's net worth has experienced a significant decline in 2025, primarily due to the sharp drop in Tesla's stock price. Since December 2024, Tesla shares have fallen by approximately 45%, with a 15% decrease to $222.15 on a recent Monday. 247wallst.com+2distractify.com+2hindustantimes.com+2 as.com+1nymag.com+1 This downturn has led to a substantial reduction in Musk's wealth. In December 2024, his net worth peaked at $486.4 billion but has since decreased to around $330 billion as of March 2025. This decline of approximately $156 billion underscores the volatility of equity-based wealth and the impact of market fluctuations on individual fortunes. people.com+1business-standard.com+1 Despite this significant loss, Musk remains the world's richest individual, largely due to his diversified portfolio, including substantial holdings in SpaceX and other ventures. However, the recent decline in his net worth highlights the inherent risks associated with heavy reliance on stock market valuations. timesofindia.indiatimes.com+1247wallst.com+1 Investors and analysts are closely monitoring the situation, as Tesla's performance and Musk's financial standing are influential factors in the broader market and the technology sector. The company's future strategies and market responses will be critical in determining whether this trend continues or stabilizes in the coming months. Elon Musk's Net Worth Declines Amid Tesla's Stock Plunge |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
17-Mar-2025 14:11
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https://view.inews.qq.com/k/20230506A03F8000?web_channel=wap&openApp=false
截 至 2023年 ， 中 国 平 安 保 险 集 团 持 有 汇 丰 控 股 约 8.38%的 股 份 ， 成 为 其 第 一 大 股 东 。 汇 丰 银 行 的 前 十 大 股 东 及 其 持 股 比 例 如 下 ： |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
14-Mar-2025 15:55
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Yes, with Singapore's 6-month T-bill yield dropping to 2.56%, OCBC shares look increasingly attractive. Lower risk-free rates make dividend-yielding bank stocks more appealing, especially OCBC, which offers a strong yield, steady cash flow, and long-term growth potential.
This aligns with your strategy of buying Singapore bank stocks when T-bill yields fall below 3%. Given OCBC?s healthy balance sheet, exposure to China?s recovery, and solid dividend payouts, this could be a good accumulation opportunity. Would you also consider tracking the next OCBC dividend declaration and NIM trends for further confirmation? |
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
14-Mar-2025 11:56
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Global fund managers aggressively shorted Hong Kong stocks from 2020 to 2024 due to regulatory crackdowns, weak economic growth, and geopolitical risks. Now, the key question is whether they will start buying these "cigarette butt" stocks?deeply undervalued companies that still have some value left.
Reasons They Might Buy HK Stocks Soon ("Cigarette Butt" Play)
1. Valuation at Multi-Year Lows
Many Hong Kong and China stocks are trading at record low price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, levels not seen since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis or 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is significantly undervalued compared to global markets, making it attractive for contrarian investors.
2. Policy Support & Stimulus from China
Beijing is easing monetary policy, cutting rates, and supporting property developers to stabilize the economy.
Regulatory pressure on tech firms (Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan) has eased, which could lead to re-rating of major stocks.
3. Short-Covering & Positioning for a Rebound
Hedge funds and institutional investors may close their short positions and shift toward long positions if economic data improves.
Some smart money is already rotating into state-backed companies and infrastructure plays (e.g., Ping An, CNOOC).
4. US Rate Cuts in 2025 Could Help
If the Fed cuts rates, it could weaken the USD and push more global liquidity into undervalued HK/China markets.
Why They Might Still Stay Away
1. Lingering China Risks
Ongoing concerns about China?s property sector, local government debt, and weak consumer confidence could keep investors cautious.
Western institutional investors are still skeptical about China's growth sustainability and capital controls.
2. Better Alternatives Elsewhere
US stocks and Japan?s Nikkei 225 are still attracting more capital due to better earnings visibility and corporate reforms.
Some fund managers might prefer India, Indonesia, or Mexico over China as emerging market plays.
3. Geopolitical Risks
US-China tensions (e.g., tariffs, Taiwan issues) could limit foreign capital inflows into Chinese stocks, including HK-listed firms.
Conclusion: "Cigarette Butt" Rally or Value Trap?
If China?s stimulus gains traction, HK stocks could rally as global funds rotate into value plays.
However, if China?s economy fails to recover strongly, the "cigarette butt" approach might turn into a value trap, with stocks staying cheap for years.
Key signal to watch: If heavyweight funds (like BlackRock, Temasek, or sovereign wealth funds) start accumulating HK stocks, it could trigger a broader re-rating.
Are you considering a contrarian move into Hong Kong stocks now, or waiting for stronger confirmation?
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
14-Mar-2025 11:46
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A rally in Alibaba (9988.HK) and Tencent (0700.HK) could have a positive spillover effect on Ping An Insurance (2318.HK), but the impact depends on broader market sentiment, economic conditions, and sector-specific factors. Here?s why:
Why Alibaba & Tencent Rally Matters for Ping An
1. Boost to Overall Market Sentiment
Alibaba and Tencent are the two biggest tech stocks in Hong Kong. A strong rally in these stocks could lift the entire Hang Seng Index (HSI) and investor confidence, which might attract more capital into undervalued Chinese financials like Ping An.
2. Improved Investor Appetite for China Exposure
If Alibaba and Tencent rally due to stronger-than-expected earnings, improved regulatory conditions, or China?s economic recovery, it could signal a shift in foreign investor sentiment toward China-related stocks, including financials like Ping An.
3. Wealth Effect on Chinese Consumers
A rising stock market (driven by tech stocks) could boost consumer confidence and wealth, which benefits insurance and financial products demand?a core business for Ping An.
What Could Hold Ping An Back?
1. Sector-Specific Issues
Ping An?s challenges are tied to China?s weak real estate market, as it has exposure to property developers (e.g., China Fortune Land). Even if tech stocks rally, Ping An?s valuation could remain pressured if real estate-related risks persist.
2. Government Policies & Interest Rate Environment
If China?s monetary easing (rate cuts, stimulus) continues, it may help Ping An by supporting insurance and investment income, but slow economic growth could limit upside.
3. Foreign Fund Flows Favoring Tech Over Financials
Investors may rotate into tech stocks first rather than insurers, meaning Ping An?s recovery could lag unless the financial sector also gets a boost.
Conclusion
A rally in Alibaba and Tencent could support Ping An indirectly by improving sentiment toward Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks. However, Ping An?s performance will depend more on China?s real estate recovery, interest rate policies, and insurance demand rather than just a tech rebound.
Would you consider adding Ping An if China?s real estate sector stabilizes, or are you more focused on other financial stocks?
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MrBear12
Supreme |
14-Mar-2025 10:12
Yells: "Peace and goodwill to all" |
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nominal $1 payment for land. After all, all land in any country ultimately belongs to the government. They are the law.
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
14-Mar-2025 10:09
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Through the weapon of law
In the 1960s and 1970s, the Singapore government acquired prime land and assets at relatively low prices through various policies and legislative measures. The key factors that allowed the government to secure these assets at "cigarette butt prices" or "tokens of appreciation" include: 1. Land Acquisition Act (1966) The Singapore government passed the Land Acquisition Act in 1966, which allowed it to compulsorily acquire land for public purposes at pre-determined compensation rates. Compensation was based on market prices before development plans were announced, ensuring that the government did not overpay for land. Many private landowners had little choice but to sell at these lower, government-mandated prices. 2. Economic and Urban Renewal Priorities The government focused on transforming Singapore into a modern financial hub, which required clearing slums and redeveloping urban areas. Many old, underutilized assets in central areas (e.g., Boat Quay, Clarke Quay, and the Civic District) were acquired cheaply and later redeveloped into high-value commercial properties. 3. Weak Bargaining Power of Landowners In the 1960s and 1970s, Singapore was still a developing nation, and many landowners lacked financial or legal means to negotiate. Some owners of city-fringe properties were unaware of the future value of their land and accepted low compensation offers. 4. Creation of Government Agencies for Property Development Housing & Development Board (HDB): Took over large tracts of land for public housing at minimal cost. Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA): Acquired and redeveloped prime urban land into commercial and financial districts. JTC Corporation: Acquired and developed industrial land, including Jurong. Temasek Holdings and GLCs: Later, some of these prime assets were transferred to government-linked companies (GLCs) like CapitaLand and Mapletree. 5. Examples of Strategic Acquisitions Marina Bay & Raffles Place: Originally waterfront and underutilized land, acquired at low cost and transformed into Singapore?s financial hub. Bugis & Kampong Glam: Former red-light district and low-value shophouses redeveloped into vibrant commercial and tourism zones. Orchard Road & Dhoby Ghaut: Once plantation land, acquired and later developed into prime shopping and commercial districts. 6. City-Fringe Land (Geylang, Queenstown, Tiong Bahru) These areas, once considered peripheral or undesirable, were acquired at low cost. Over time, they became prime locations as Singapore expanded, with property values skyrocketing. Long-Term Impact The government's aggressive land acquisition strategy allowed Singapore to: Control urban development efficiently. Generate massive economic value through redevelopment. Ensure affordable public housing while also creating high-value commercial hubs. This strategy is why today, much of Singapore?s prime land is government-owned or leased, with land scarcity driving high property prices. |
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chartistkao3
Elite |
14-Mar-2025 04:17
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It looks like market sentiment has turned negative, with investors reacting to new tariff threats and mixed inflation signals. The sharp sell-off in tech and consumer discretionary stocks suggests concerns over economic growth and higher costs.
The Dow is down over 650 points, with a 1.3% decline, while Nasdaq has slipped below 17,350. Adobe&rsquo s 13% plunge is particularly notable&mdash likely due to weak guidance or earnings disappointment. Apple and Amazon dropping over 2% also signals weakness in megacaps. Are you looking at any buying opportunities in Singapore banks amid this market correction? 4o
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chartistkao3
Elite |
14-Mar-2025 03:20
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https://www.iqiyi.com/v_21bivc1c9tc.html
http://www.news.cn/ent/20250305/d2b46227060c4b288b735d2be64b3f60/c.html
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
13-Mar-2025 15:21
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With the latest Singapore 6-month T-bill yield falling to 2.56%, we are seeing a clear downtrend in short-term risk-free returns, while inflation remains sticky. This could lead to a shift in investor behavior.
Implications of Falling T-bill Yields with Stubborn Inflation
1️ ⃣ Retail and Institutional Demand for T-bills Will Weaken
At 2.56%, T-bill yields are now much lower than in 2023, when they peaked above 4%.
If inflation stays above 3%, holding T-bills at sub-3% yields guarantees a negative real return.
Investors who were parking cash in T-bills may seek higher-yielding alternatives.
2️ ⃣ Shift from T-bills to Dividend Stocks and Fixed Income Funds
Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB) offer 5%-6% dividend yields, making them increasingly attractive relative to T-bills.
REITs with strong balance sheets could also see renewed interest as yield spreads become more favorable.
Corporate bonds and fixed-income funds may gain traction as investors look for better risk-adjusted returns.
3️ ⃣ Rising Asset Prices as Liquidity Shifts
Lower T-bill yields often mean more liquidity flows into equities and real estate, pushing prices up.
Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand could benefit as investors rotate out of T-bills.
4️ ⃣ Longer-Term Rates Will Be Key
If 10-year Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) also see lower yields, this reinforces the shift away from risk-free assets.
A steep yield curve (short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates) could encourage investors to lock in longer-duration assets for better returns.
Conclusion
If T-bill yields continue falling while inflation remains stubborn, demand for T-bills will dry up as investors look for alternatives. Singapore bank stocks, high-quality REITs, and select property developers may see renewed interest, while fixed-income funds could attract inflows from cash-rich investors.
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
13-Mar-2025 15:15
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That?s a rational stance. A stable and predictable regulatory environment is crucial for long-term investing. When a government frequently changes policies in ways that disadvantage investors?whether through sudden tax hikes, shifting property curbs, or inconsistent financial regulations?it creates uncertainty that makes it difficult to plan long-term investments.
Key Risks of Investing in Unpredictable Markets
1. Regulatory Uncertainty
Sudden rule changes can wipe out expected returns or force costly adjustments.
Examples: Unexpected property cooling measures, capital controls, or tax increases.
2. Erosion of Investor Confidence
If the goalposts keep shifting, long-term investors may exit the market.
Capital flight often follows inconsistent policy-making.
3. Sector-Specific Targeting
Governments may favor certain industries while penalizing others, creating market distortions.
Example: Real estate curbs that heavily impact developers but benefit state-backed firms.
4. Lack of Clear Exit Strategy
When rules change unpredictably, it?s harder to plan entry and exit points.
Long-term value investing requires policy consistency.
What This Means for Your Investing Strategy
Avoid markets where policies are unstable and anti-investor.
Stick to jurisdictions with a track record of fair, transparent rules (e.g., Singapore, Switzerland).
Watch for signs of government intervention before committing capital.
If a country?s policies repeatedly disadvantage investors, it?s better to stay out than risk capital in an unpredictable environment.
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
13-Mar-2025 15:01
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2008年 次 贷 危 机 对 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 的 影 响 及 CDL的 行 业 周 期 分 析
2008年 的 **次 贷 危 机 （ Subprime Crisis） **导 致 全 球 金 融 市 场 大 幅 动 荡 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 也 受 到 了 较 大 影 响 。 以 下 是 当 时 的 市 场 表 现 以 及 对 CDL的 影 响 分 析 ：
1. 行 业 周 期 分 析
2008-2009年 ： 市 场 急 剧 下 滑
受 次 贷 危 机 冲 击 ， 新 加 坡 经 济 在 2008年 底 至 2009年 陷 入 衰 退 ， 房 地 产 市 场 迅 速 降 温 。
住 宅 交 易 量 大 幅 减 少 ， 房 价 指 数 在 2009年 初 触 底 ， 比 2008年 高 点 下 跌 约 25%。
商 业 地 产 （ 办 公 楼 、 零 售 物 业 ） 受 企 业 缩 减 规 模 和 消 费 疲 软 影 响 ， 租 金 和 资 本 值 均 下 滑 。
CDL股 价 在 2008年 危 机 期 间 大 幅 回 调 ， 反 映 市 场 对 房 地 产 行 业 的 悲 观 预 期 。
2010-2013年 ： 市 场 复 苏 与 政 府 调 控
由 于 低 利 率 和 经 济 复 苏 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 在 2010年 快 速 反 弹 ， CDL的 业 务 和 股 价 也 随 之 回 升 。
政 府 出 台 **额 外 买 方 印 花 税 （ ABSD） **等 措 施 ， 试 图 遏 制 投 机 活 动 ， 防 止 房 价 过 热 。
CDL在 这 一 时 期 的 增 长 受 益 于 市 场 复 苏 ， 但 政 策 压 力 增 加 ， 影 响 长 期 增 长 空 间 。
2020年 后 ： 市 场 韧 性 与 全 球 不 确 定 性
近 几 年 ， 新 加 坡 房 地 产 市 场 展 现 出 较 强 的 韧 性 ， 即 使 在 疫 情 冲 击 下 仍 维 持 稳 定 。
CDL受 益 于 其 多 元 化 布 局 （ 酒 店 、 商 业 地 产 、 海 外 项 目 ） ， 但 也 面 临 利 率 上 升 、 全 球 经 济 放 缓 等 挑 战 。
2. 财 务 健 康 状 况
现 金 流 与 债 务 ：
2008年 危 机 期 间 ， 房 地 产 开 发 商 面 临 流 动 性 压 力 ， CDL的 债 务 水 平 和 现 金 流 管 理 至 关 重 要 。
相 比 杠 杆 率 较 高 的 开 发 商 ， CDL在 行 业 低 迷 期 依 然 保 持 稳 健 财 务 状 况 ， 避 免 了 因 债 务 问 题 陷 入 困 境 。
收 入 与 盈 利 能 力 ：
由 于 房 屋 销 售 放 缓 ， CDL的 收 入 在 2008-2009年 受 到 一 定 冲 击 。
但 由 于 其 物 业 投 资 和 酒 店 业 务 提 供 了 稳 定 的 租 金 收 入 ， CDL能 够 维 持 一 定 的 盈 利 水 平 。
3. 区 域 多 元 化
海 外 市 场 对 冲 风 险 ：
CDL在 2008年 金 融 危 机 后 加 快 了 海 外 扩 张 ， 在 中 国 、 英 国 、 日 本 和 澳 洲 等 市 场 布 局 ， 以 减 少 对 新 加 坡 市 场 的 依 赖 。
例 如 ， 在 中 国 ， CDL投 资 了 多 个 住 宅 和 商 业 项 目 ， 帮 助 分 散 新 加 坡 市 场 的 周 期 性 风 险 。
酒 店 业 务 的 恢 复 ：
旗 下 Millennium & Copthorne Hotels（ 千 禧 国 敦 酒 店 集 团 ） 在 全 球 拥 有 多 个 酒 店 ， 在 市 场 复 苏 时 提 供 了 增 长 动 能 。
总 结
2008年 次 贷 危 机 表 明 ， 房 地 产 行 业 对 经 济 周 期 高 度 敏 感 。 CDL作 为 周 期 性 企 业 ， 在 危 机 期 间 受 到 冲 击 ， 但 其 稳 健 的 财 务 管 理 、 租 赁 物 业 的 稳 定 现 金 流 以 及 区 域 多 元 化 策 略 ， 使 其 在 行 业 低 迷 时 仍 能 保 持 生 存 能 力 ， 并 在 复 苏 期 迅 速 反 弹 。 因 此 ， 投 资 CDL需 要 密 切 关 注 ：
新 加 坡 政 府 的 房 地 产 调 控 政 策 （ 如 ABSD、 LTV限 制 ） 。
全 球 经 济 环 境 （ 利 率 、 通 胀 、 金 融 危 机 风 险 ） 。
公 司 财 务 状 况 （ 负 债 率 、 现 金 流 ） 。
区 域 市 场 表 现 （ 特 别 是 中 国 、 英 国 等 主 要 市 场 ） 。
在 房 地 产 市 场 低 迷 时 ， CDL的 股 价 可 能 会 被 低 估 ， 为 长 期 投 资 者 提 供 机 会 ， 但 同 时 需 考 虑 房 地 产 行 业 的 周 期 性 风 险 。
ChatGPT can mak
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
13-Mar-2025 14:56
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Yes, history suggests that when the "invisible hands" (large institutional funds) sell off Singapore bank shares, the capital often rotates into oversold property stocks, just like what happened in 1998.
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Historical Pattern of Fund Flows: From Banks to Property Stocks
1️ ⃣ 1998 Asian Financial Crisis
What Happened?
Singapore banks were hit hard due to regional economic turmoil, and big funds sold off bank shares.
As panic selling peaked, Singapore property stocks like CDL, UOL, and Capitaland (formerly Pidemco/DBS Land) became deeply undervalued.
When the economy stabilized, funds rotated into property developers at bargain prices.
Lesson from 1998:
After bank shares peaked in valuation, institutional funds shifted capital into deeply oversold property stocks, fueling their strong recovery.
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2️ ⃣ 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
What Happened?
Initially, banks outperformed property developers due to rising interest margins.
But after a strong run, bank stocks became expensive, and funds rotated into developers and REITs as the property market rebounded.
Lesson from 2008-2009:
Singapore property stocks lagged in the early recovery phase but caught up strongly once the banking rally slowed.
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3️ ⃣ Post-COVID 2020-2022
What Happened?
Singapore banks rallied first as interest rates rose, boosting NIMs.
Property stocks and REITs underperformed due to higher interest costs and weak office demand.
However, as interest rate expectations shifted in late 2023-2024, some funds started bottom-fishing in property stocks.
Lesson from Post-COVID:
Property stocks and REITs usually recover later in the cycle, as funds rotate out of banks when their valuation peaks.
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What This Means for 2025?
If Singapore bank stocks become fully valued, we could see capital rotate into oversold property developers like CDL, UOL, and GuocoLand.
Interest rate stabilization or cuts could provide the trigger for property stocks to outperform banks.
Institutional funds often follow historical cycles, meaning a property sector rebound could be the next major move if bank shares face profit-taking.
Conclusion
Just like in 1998 and 2009, when Singapore bank stocks peak and institutional funds start selling, watch for money flowing into deeply undervalued property stocks. CDL, UOL, and CityDev could be the next beneficiaries of this rotation, making them attractive for long-term investors.
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chartistkaohz
Veteran |
13-Mar-2025 14:46
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以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL（ City Developments Limited， 新 加 坡 城 市 发 展 有 限 公 司 ） 在 历 史 上 被 认 为 是 有 效 的 投 资 策 略 ， 主 要 原 因 如 下 ：
### 1. **CDL的 净 资 产 价 值 （ NAV） 提 供 了 一 个 下 限 **
- CDL的 NAV（ 净 资 产 价 值 ） 是 公 司 资 产 减 去 负 债 后 的 净 值 ， 通 常 被 视 为 公 司 股 价 的 下 限 。 多 年 来 ， CDL的 NAV一 直 远 高 于 每 股 6美 元 ， 这 意 味 着 即 使 股 价 短 期 下 跌 ， 其 内 在 价 值 仍 然 较 高 。
- 当 股 价 低 于 NAV时 ， 投 资 者 可 以 以 低 于 公 司 实 际 资 产 价 值 的 价 格 买 入 股 票 ， 这 提 供 了 较 大 的 安 全 边 际 。 历 史 上 ， CDL的 股 价 在 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 往 往 会 被 市 场 认 为 是 被 低 估 的 ， 从 而 吸 引 长 期 投 资 者 入 场 。
### 2. **房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 **
- 房 地 产 市 场 具 有 周 期 性 ， 虽 然 短 期 内 会 受 到 经 济 波 动 的 影 响 ， 但 长 期 来 看 ， 房 地 产 资 产 通 常 会 随 着 经 济 增 长 和 城 市 化 进 程 而 升 值 。 CDL作 为 新 加 坡 领 先 的 房 地 产 开 发 商 ， 其 资 产 质 量 和 品 牌 价 值 在 长 期 内 具 有 增 值 潜 力 。
- 例 如 ， 在 1998年 亚 洲 金 融 危 机 期 间 ， CDL的 股 价 曾 跌 至 约 3美 元 至 4美 元 ， 但 随 着 市 场 复 苏 ， 股 价 迅 速 反 弹 。 类 似 的 情 况 也 出 现 在 2008年 全 球 金 融 危 机 和 2020年 新 冠 疫 情 引 发 的 市 场 低 迷 中 。 每 次 市 场 复 苏 后 ， CDL的 股 价 都 回 到 了 更 高 的 水 平 。
### 3. **历 史 表 现 证 明 其 抗 风 险 能 力 **
- CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 即 使 在 市 场 极 度 低 迷 的 时 期 ， CDL的 股 价 也 从 未 长 期 低 于 6美 元 ， 且 每 次 都 能 随 着 经 济 复 苏 而 反 弹 。 这 表 明 CDL的 资 产 质 量 和 业 务 模 式 具 有 较 强 的 韧 性 。
- 这 种 历 史 表 现 增 强 了 投 资 者 对 CDL的 信 心 ， 尤 其 是 在 股 价 低 于 6美 元 时 ， 投 资 者 认 为 这 是 一 个 相 对 安 全 的 买 入 点 。
### 4. **股 息 回 报 和 长 期 增 长 潜 力 **
- CDL作 为 一 家 稳 健 的 房 地 产 公 司 ， 通 常 会 向 股 东 支 付 股 息 。 即 使 在 股 价 低 迷 时 期 ， 股 息 回 报 也 为 投 资 者 提 供 了 一 定 的 现 金 流 支 持 。
- 长 期 来 看 ， CDL的 房 地 产 资 产 和 开 发 项 目 具 有 增 值 潜 力 ， 尤 其 是 在 新 加 坡 这 样 土 地 资 源 稀 缺 的 市 场 ， 房 地 产 的 长 期 价 值 增 长 趋 势 明 显 。
### 总 结 ：
以 低 于 6美 元 的 价 格 购 买 CDL在 历 史 上 是 有 效 的 ， 主 要 是 因 为 其 NAV提 供 了 安 全 边 际 ， 房 地 产 市 场 周 期 有 利 于 长 期 持 有 ， 且 CDL在 多 次 经 济 危 机 中 表 现 出 较 强 的 抗 风 险 能 力 。 这 种 策 略 适 合 那 些 愿 意 长 期 持 有 并 等 待 市 场 复 苏 的 投 资 者 。
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