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ocbc buyers fight back from the shortists Post Reply Rate topic
chartistkaohz Master	21-Apr-2025 09:32        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Singapore bank shares performing well in April, despite global market volatility (e.g., Trump tariff turmoil), is significant for several reasons?and the subsequent fund inflows after a global selloff can be attributed to strategic positioning. Here?s why: ### **1. Safe-Haven Status of Singapore Banks** - **Stability Amid Global Uncertainty**: Singapore?s banks (DBS, UOB, OCBC) are seen as resilient due to strong capital buffers, prudent regulation (MAS oversight), and exposure to stable ASEAN growth. During tariff wars or geopolitical tensions, investors flock to safer assets, and Singapore?s banking sector benefits. - **USD-Linked Strength**: Since Singapore?s monetary policy is tied to the USD (via the SGD NEER), a strong USD (common during trade wars) supports SGD assets, making banks attractive. ### **2. April as a Key Month for Banking Performance** - **Q1 Earnings Season**: April is when Singapore banks report Q1 earnings. Strong results (driven by rising NIMs, wealth management fees, and regional loan growth) can trigger bullish momentum. - **Dividend Expectations**: Investors often position ahead of dividend announcements (typically mid-year), leading to accumulation in April. ### **3. Post-Selloff Fund Inflows: Why Singapore Banks?** - **Valuation Play**: After a global selloff, Singapore banks often appear undervalued compared to Western peers (e.g., lower P/E ratios but high ROE). Funds seeking value opportunities rotate in. - **Yield Attraction**: With 5-6% dividend yields, Singapore banks appeal to income-focused investors when global bond yields are volatile. - **Regional Growth Hedge**: Even if global trade slows, ASEAN?s intra-regional trade and digital economy growth support Singapore banks? loan books. ### **4. Trump Tariff Turmoil Impact** - **Short-Term Panic, Long-Term Opportunity**: Tariff fears may cause a knee-jerk selloff, but Singapore?s banks are less exposed to direct US-China trade risks than Hong Kong or Chinese banks. - **Capital Flight from Riskier Markets**: Funds exiting China/HK equities may redirect to Singapore for stability, boosting liquidity in bank shares. ### **Conclusion** April?s strength in Singapore banks reflects their defensive appeal during uncertainty, strong fundamentals, and attractive valuations post-selloffs. Fund managers see them as a "safe carry trade"?high dividends, low volatility, and leverage to ASEAN recovery?making accumulation post-selloffs a strategic move. Would you like a deeper dive into specific catalysts (e.g., Fed rate cuts, MAS policy) affecting this trend?
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 15:54        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	在 当 前 全 球 市 场 剧 烈 震 荡 、 避 险 情 绪 高 涨 的 背 景 下 ， 是 否 买 入 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 需 要 综 合 考 虑 多 重 因 素 。 以 下 为 专 业 分 析 框 架 ： --- ### **一 、 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 的 避 险 属 性 分 析 ** 1. **亚 洲 银 行 业 的 防 御 性 ** 新 加 坡 银 行 业 以 资 本 充 足 率 高 （ 大 华 银 行 2023年 CET1比 率 约 14%） 、 不 良 贷 款 率 低 （ 低 于 2%） 著 称 ， 在 金 融 危 机 中 表 现 相 对 稳 健 。 若 市 场 动 荡 源 于 欧 美 经 济 衰 退 ， 亚 洲 资 产 可 能 成 为 资 金 避 风 港 。 2. **货 币 与 地 缘 优 势 ** 新 元 作 为 亚 洲 避 险 货 币 之 一 ， 在 美 元 波 动 时 可 能 吸 引 资 金 流 入 。 新 加 坡 稳 定 的 政 治 环 境 和 金 融 中 心 地 位 也 增 强 其 吸 引 力 。 --- ### **二 、 当 前 市 场 环 境 的 关 键 风 险 点 ** 1. **系 统 性 风 险 传 导 ** 若 全 球 衰 退 导 致 企 业 违 约 率 上 升 ， 银 行 业 资 产 质 量 将 承 压 。 需 关 注 大 华 银 行 对 欧 美 市 场 的 风 险 敞 口 （ 如 贷 款 组 合 中 海 外 占 比 约 30%） 。 2. **利 率 环 境 变 化 ** 美 联 储 若 转 向 降 息 ， 将 压 缩 银 行 净 息 差 。 大 华 银 行 2023年 净 利 息 收 入 占 比 超 60%， 需 评 估 其 非 利 息 收 入 （ 如 财 富 管 理 ） 能 否 对 冲 。 --- ### **三 、 估 值 与 技 术 面 信 号 ** 1. **相 对 估 值 优 势 ** 截 至 最 新 数 据 ， 大 华 银 行 市 盈 率 （ PE） 约 10.5倍 ， 低 于 欧 美 同 业 （ 如 摩 根 大 通 PE 12.8倍 ） ， 股 息 率 4.2%具 备 一 定 吸 引 力 。 2. **技 术 支 撑 位 ** 股 价 若 接 近 2023年 低 点 （ 约 24新 元 ） ， 可 能 形 成 短 期 买 点 ， 但 需 观 察 成 交 量 是 否 配 合 。 --- ### **四 、 更 优 替 代 策 略 建 议 ** 若 目 标 为 对 冲 市 场 风 险 ， 可 考 虑 以 下 组 合 ： - **核 心 配 置 **： 大 华 银 行 （ 30%） + 新 加 坡 国 债 ETF（ 20%） - **对 冲 工 具 **： 黄 金 ETF（ 10%） + 美 元 /新 元 外 汇 远 期 - **流 动 性 储 备 **： 持 有 现 金 等 待 恐 慌 性 抛 售 后 的 优 质 资 产 错 杀 机 会 。 --- ### **结 论 ** **谨 慎 买 入 **， 但 需 满 足 以 下 条 件 ： 1. 确 认 大 华 银 行 Q2财 报 无 显 著 坏 账 攀 升 ； 2. 新 加 坡 金 管 局 维 持 现 行 货 币 政 策 ； 3. 技 术 面 出 现 放 量 止 跌 信 号 。 建 议 仓 位 不 超 过 投 资 组 合 的 15%， 并 设 置 止 损 位 （ 如 跌 破 前 低 5%） 。 在 当 前 环 境 下 ， 分 散 配 置 比 单 一 押 注 更 符 合 风 险 管 理 原 则 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 14:45) Posted: 全 球 市 场 剧 烈 波 动 自 4月 2日 特 朗 普 宣 布 对 所 有 贸 易 伙 伴 ?对 等 关 税 ?以 来 ， 全 球 股 市 迅 速 失 血 。 MSCI全 球 指 数 两 周 内 蒸 发 逾 5万 亿 美 元 ， 投 资 者 仓 皇 出 逃 ， 抛 售 美 股 、 欧 洲 股 市 ， 同 时 避 险 资 产 （ 黄 金 、 日 债 ） 虽 一 度 走 高 ， 但 对 整 体 信 心 难 以 构 成 支 撑 。 美 国 三 大 指 数 连 续 两 日 重 挫 ： 标 普 500单 日 跌 逾 5.9%， 纳 指 一 度 跌 入 熊 市 区 （ 累 计 跌 幅 ＞ 20%） ； 道 指 失 守 3万 人 气 关 口 ， 市 值 缩 水 近 6万 亿 美 元 。 A股 相 对 抗 跌 ， 却 仍 大 幅 回 调 4月 7日 清 明 假 期 后 首 个 交 易 日 ， A股 三 大 指 数 集 体 暴 跌 ： 沪 指 收 报 3,096.58点 ， 跌 幅 7.34%； 深 证 成 指 跌 9.66%； 创 业 板 指 大 跌 12.50%； 全 天 超 5,200只 个 股 收 跌 ， 仅 农 业 等 少 数 内 需 板 块 逆 势 上 涨 。 当 日 市 场 换 手 率 飙 升 ， 逾 79只 个 股 换 手 率 超 20%， 显 示 恐 慌 盘 频 繁 易 手 ； 中 央 汇 金 虽 已 有 抄 底 动 作 ， 但 对 整 体 成 交 影 响 有 限 。 底 部 抄 底 良 机 or陷 阱 ？ 1. 抄 底 良 机 的 逻 辑 政 策 托 底 ： 国 务 院 已 表 态 将 加 大 逆 周 期 调 节 和 稳 增 长 力 度 ， 国 企 改 革 与 ?补 短 板 ?项 目 有 望 继 续 推 进 。 估 值 吸 引 ： 沪 深 300指 数 PE已 回 落 至 10?11倍 ， 历 史 上 此 估 值 区 间 多 为 市 场 中 枢 或 反 弹 启 动 区 域 。 国 内 需 求 韧 性 ： 3月 社 会 消 费 品 零 售 总 额 、 工 业 增 速 均 超 预 期 ， 内 需 型 消 费 、 服 务 业 板 块 后 续 仍 有 修 复 空 间 。 2. 抄 底 陷 阱 的 风 险 外 部 不 确 定 性 仍 在 ： 特 朗 普 关 税 政 策 随 时 可 能 调 整 或 升 级 ， 且 美 欧 日 等 国 纷 纷 表 态 不 会 坐 以 待 毙 ， 报 复 性 措 施 可 能 卷 土 重 来 。 宏 观 增 速 下 行 压 力 ： 全 球 贸 易 量 或 在 2025全 年 下 滑 ， 出 口 导 向 型 行 业 及 中 游 制 造 业 承 压 ； 国 内 地 产 和 地 方 债 务 问 题 未 能 根 本 缓 解 。 市 场 情 绪 脆 弱 ： 前 期 快 牛 后 忽 然 遇 ?黑 色 星 期 一 ?， 投 资 者 信 心 亟 待 修 复 ， 若 短 期 内 无 实 质 性 利 好 ， 反 弹 或 难 以 持 续 。 策 略 建 议 1. 分 批 建 仓 ： 可 将 资 金 分 三 至 五 批 ， 在 政 策 或 海 外 市 场 出 现 边 际 好 转 时 择 机 买 入 。 2. 精 选 板 块 ： 重 点 关 注 ： 内 需 消 费 （ 食 品 饮 料 、 家 电 零 售 ） ??受 益 于 政 策 托 底 和 消 费 升 级 ； 新 能 源 与 半 导 体 ??国 产 替 代 加 速 ， 且 受 政 策 扶 持 ； 大 金 融 与 国 企 改 革 主 题 ??低 估 值 +稳 定 分 红 。 3. 保 持 流 动 性 ： 适 度 预 留 20?30%仓 位 ， 灵 活 应 对 突 发 风 险 与 二 次 下 跌 。 > 结 论 ： 当 前 A股 整 体 的 估 值 已 跌 至 近 年 来 相 对 低 位 ， 短 期 内 存 在 技 术 性 反 弹 机 会 ； 但 全 球 贸 易 摩 擦 不 确 定 性 与 国 内 增 速 下 行 压 力 依 旧 并 存 ， 盲 目 全 仓 抄 底 风 险 较 大 。 建 议 分 批 布 局 、 精 选 优 质 板 块 ， 以 控 制 回 撤 、 提 高 胜 率 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 14:30) Posted: 《 特 朗 普 关 税 重 锤 下 的 资 本 博 弈 ： 2025危 中 寻 机 ， UOB成 避 风 港 ？ 》 2025年 春 ， 特 朗 普 卷 土 重 来 ， 掀 起 新 一 轮 关 税 风 暴 。 从 制 造 业 到 高 科 技 ， 从 商 品 流 通 到 资 本 市 场 ， 一 场 全 方 位 的 中 美 博 弈 悄 然 升 级 。 当 美 媒 频 频 放 风 ?中 概 股 或 被 迫 退 市 ?， 当 人 民 币 承 压 、 港 股 震 荡 ， 全 球 资 金 开 始 寻 找 下 一 个 ?安 全 资 产 ?。 而 在 亚 太 金 融 版 图 上 ， 一 抹 稳 健 的 亮 色 格 外 引 人 注 目 ??新 加 坡 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 。 作 为 东 南 亚 三 大 行 之 一 ， UOB以 强 劲 的 资 本 实 力 、 稳 定 的 派 息 策 略 和 在 区 域 经 济 中 不 断 扩 张 的 布 局 ， 成 为 ?灰 犀 牛 ?袭 来 时 的 避 风 港 。
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 14:45        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	全 球 市 场 剧 烈 波 动 自 4月 2日 特 朗 普 宣 布 对 所 有 贸 易 伙 伴 ?对 等 关 税 ?以 来 ， 全 球 股 市 迅 速 失 血 。 MSCI全 球 指 数 两 周 内 蒸 发 逾 5万 亿 美 元 ， 投 资 者 仓 皇 出 逃 ， 抛 售 美 股 、 欧 洲 股 市 ， 同 时 避 险 资 产 （ 黄 金 、 日 债 ） 虽 一 度 走 高 ， 但 对 整 体 信 心 难 以 构 成 支 撑 。 美 国 三 大 指 数 连 续 两 日 重 挫 ： 标 普 500单 日 跌 逾 5.9%， 纳 指 一 度 跌 入 熊 市 区 （ 累 计 跌 幅 ＞ 20%） ； 道 指 失 守 3万 人 气 关 口 ， 市 值 缩 水 近 6万 亿 美 元 。 A股 相 对 抗 跌 ， 却 仍 大 幅 回 调 4月 7日 清 明 假 期 后 首 个 交 易 日 ， A股 三 大 指 数 集 体 暴 跌 ： 沪 指 收 报 3,096.58点 ， 跌 幅 7.34%； 深 证 成 指 跌 9.66%； 创 业 板 指 大 跌 12.50%； 全 天 超 5,200只 个 股 收 跌 ， 仅 农 业 等 少 数 内 需 板 块 逆 势 上 涨 。 当 日 市 场 换 手 率 飙 升 ， 逾 79只 个 股 换 手 率 超 20%， 显 示 恐 慌 盘 频 繁 易 手 ； 中 央 汇 金 虽 已 有 抄 底 动 作 ， 但 对 整 体 成 交 影 响 有 限 。 底 部 抄 底 良 机 or陷 阱 ？ 1. 抄 底 良 机 的 逻 辑 政 策 托 底 ： 国 务 院 已 表 态 将 加 大 逆 周 期 调 节 和 稳 增 长 力 度 ， 国 企 改 革 与 ?补 短 板 ?项 目 有 望 继 续 推 进 。 估 值 吸 引 ： 沪 深 300指 数 PE已 回 落 至 10?11倍 ， 历 史 上 此 估 值 区 间 多 为 市 场 中 枢 或 反 弹 启 动 区 域 。 国 内 需 求 韧 性 ： 3月 社 会 消 费 品 零 售 总 额 、 工 业 增 速 均 超 预 期 ， 内 需 型 消 费 、 服 务 业 板 块 后 续 仍 有 修 复 空 间 。 2. 抄 底 陷 阱 的 风 险 外 部 不 确 定 性 仍 在 ： 特 朗 普 关 税 政 策 随 时 可 能 调 整 或 升 级 ， 且 美 欧 日 等 国 纷 纷 表 态 不 会 坐 以 待 毙 ， 报 复 性 措 施 可 能 卷 土 重 来 。 宏 观 增 速 下 行 压 力 ： 全 球 贸 易 量 或 在 2025全 年 下 滑 ， 出 口 导 向 型 行 业 及 中 游 制 造 业 承 压 ； 国 内 地 产 和 地 方 债 务 问 题 未 能 根 本 缓 解 。 市 场 情 绪 脆 弱 ： 前 期 快 牛 后 忽 然 遇 ?黑 色 星 期 一 ?， 投 资 者 信 心 亟 待 修 复 ， 若 短 期 内 无 实 质 性 利 好 ， 反 弹 或 难 以 持 续 。 策 略 建 议 1. 分 批 建 仓 ： 可 将 资 金 分 三 至 五 批 ， 在 政 策 或 海 外 市 场 出 现 边 际 好 转 时 择 机 买 入 。 2. 精 选 板 块 ： 重 点 关 注 ： 内 需 消 费 （ 食 品 饮 料 、 家 电 零 售 ） ??受 益 于 政 策 托 底 和 消 费 升 级 ； 新 能 源 与 半 导 体 ??国 产 替 代 加 速 ， 且 受 政 策 扶 持 ； 大 金 融 与 国 企 改 革 主 题 ??低 估 值 +稳 定 分 红 。 3. 保 持 流 动 性 ： 适 度 预 留 20?30%仓 位 ， 灵 活 应 对 突 发 风 险 与 二 次 下 跌 。 > 结 论 ： 当 前 A股 整 体 的 估 值 已 跌 至 近 年 来 相 对 低 位 ， 短 期 内 存 在 技 术 性 反 弹 机 会 ； 但 全 球 贸 易 摩 擦 不 确 定 性 与 国 内 增 速 下 行 压 力 依 旧 并 存 ， 盲 目 全 仓 抄 底 风 险 较 大 。 建 议 分 批 布 局 、 精 选 优 质 板 块 ， 以 控 制 回 撤 、 提 高 胜 率 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 14:30) Posted: 《 特 朗 普 关 税 重 锤 下 的 资 本 博 弈 ： 2025危 中 寻 机 ， UOB成 避 风 港 ？ 》 2025年 春 ， 特 朗 普 卷 土 重 来 ， 掀 起 新 一 轮 关 税 风 暴 。 从 制 造 业 到 高 科 技 ， 从 商 品 流 通 到 资 本 市 场 ， 一 场 全 方 位 的 中 美 博 弈 悄 然 升 级 。 当 美 媒 频 频 放 风 ?中 概 股 或 被 迫 退 市 ?， 当 人 民 币 承 压 、 港 股 震 荡 ， 全 球 资 金 开 始 寻 找 下 一 个 ?安 全 资 产 ?。 而 在 亚 太 金 融 版 图 上 ， 一 抹 稳 健 的 亮 色 格 外 引 人 注 目 ??新 加 坡 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 。 作 为 东 南 亚 三 大 行 之 一 ， UOB以 强 劲 的 资 本 实 力 、 稳 定 的 派 息 策 略 和 在 区 域 经 济 中 不 断 扩 张 的 布 局 ， 成 为 ?灰 犀 牛 ?袭 来 时 的 避 风 港 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 14:13) Posted: 你 的 思 路 很 有 意 思 ??从 关 税 战 延 伸 到 可 能 的 ?股 市 战 ?， 确 实 值 得 警 惕 。 特 朗 普 一 贯 擅 长 打 ?组 合 拳 ?， 先 打 贸 易 战 ， 再 打 科 技 战 ， 如 果 再 来 一 场 资 本 战 ， 把 中 概 股 逼 退 市 、 限 制 资 金 流 动 ， 确 实 可 能 对 中 国 股 市 造 成 连 锁 打 击 。 至 于 新 加 坡 的 投 资 者 ， 尤 其 是 追 求 稳 定 收 益 的 ?income seeking?股 民 ， 你 说 得 没 错 ： 在 这 种 动 荡 时 期 ， 优 质 高 息 蓝 筹 如 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 确 实 是 避 险 的 不 错 选 择 。 银 行 股 通 常 在 利 率 高 企 时 获 益 较 大 ， 而 且 新 加 坡 金 融 体 系 相 对 稳 健 ， UOB作 为 本 地 三 大 银 行 之 一 ， 派 息 也 相 对 稳 健 可 靠 。 你 这 种 ?灰 狼 来 了 就 抄 底 优 质 资 产 ?的 逻 辑 ， 其 实 挺 聪 明 的 ??危 中 有 机 。
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 14:30        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	《 特 朗 普 关 税 重 锤 下 的 资 本 博 弈 ： 2025危 中 寻 机 ， UOB成 避 风 港 ？ 》 2025年 春 ， 特 朗 普 卷 土 重 来 ， 掀 起 新 一 轮 关 税 风 暴 。 从 制 造 业 到 高 科 技 ， 从 商 品 流 通 到 资 本 市 场 ， 一 场 全 方 位 的 中 美 博 弈 悄 然 升 级 。 当 美 媒 频 频 放 风 ?中 概 股 或 被 迫 退 市 ?， 当 人 民 币 承 压 、 港 股 震 荡 ， 全 球 资 金 开 始 寻 找 下 一 个 ?安 全 资 产 ?。 而 在 亚 太 金 融 版 图 上 ， 一 抹 稳 健 的 亮 色 格 外 引 人 注 目 ??新 加 坡 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 。 作 为 东 南 亚 三 大 行 之 一 ， UOB以 强 劲 的 资 本 实 力 、 稳 定 的 派 息 策 略 和 在 区 域 经 济 中 不 断 扩 张 的 布 局 ， 成 为 ?灰 犀 牛 ?袭 来 时 的 避 风 港 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 14:13) Posted: 你 的 思 路 很 有 意 思 ??从 关 税 战 延 伸 到 可 能 的 ?股 市 战 ?， 确 实 值 得 警 惕 。 特 朗 普 一 贯 擅 长 打 ?组 合 拳 ?， 先 打 贸 易 战 ， 再 打 科 技 战 ， 如 果 再 来 一 场 资 本 战 ， 把 中 概 股 逼 退 市 、 限 制 资 金 流 动 ， 确 实 可 能 对 中 国 股 市 造 成 连 锁 打 击 。 至 于 新 加 坡 的 投 资 者 ， 尤 其 是 追 求 稳 定 收 益 的 ?income seeking?股 民 ， 你 说 得 没 错 ： 在 这 种 动 荡 时 期 ， 优 质 高 息 蓝 筹 如 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 确 实 是 避 险 的 不 错 选 择 。 银 行 股 通 常 在 利 率 高 企 时 获 益 较 大 ， 而 且 新 加 坡 金 融 体 系 相 对 稳 健 ， UOB作 为 本 地 三 大 银 行 之 一 ， 派 息 也 相 对 稳 健 可 靠 。 你 这 种 ?灰 狼 来 了 就 抄 底 优 质 资 产 ?的 逻 辑 ， 其 实 挺 聪 明 的 ??危 中 有 机 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:49) Posted: Trump and the world leaders who is kissing whose asses .https://youtu.be/LleqBkUeuEs?si=ZLdo-YrG8D24sRb
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 14:13        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	你 的 思 路 很 有 意 思 ??从 关 税 战 延 伸 到 可 能 的 ?股 市 战 ?， 确 实 值 得 警 惕 。 特 朗 普 一 贯 擅 长 打 ?组 合 拳 ?， 先 打 贸 易 战 ， 再 打 科 技 战 ， 如 果 再 来 一 场 资 本 战 ， 把 中 概 股 逼 退 市 、 限 制 资 金 流 动 ， 确 实 可 能 对 中 国 股 市 造 成 连 锁 打 击 。 至 于 新 加 坡 的 投 资 者 ， 尤 其 是 追 求 稳 定 收 益 的 ?income seeking?股 民 ， 你 说 得 没 错 ： 在 这 种 动 荡 时 期 ， 优 质 高 息 蓝 筹 如 大 华 银 行 （ UOB） 确 实 是 避 险 的 不 错 选 择 。 银 行 股 通 常 在 利 率 高 企 时 获 益 较 大 ， 而 且 新 加 坡 金 融 体 系 相 对 稳 健 ， UOB作 为 本 地 三 大 银 行 之 一 ， 派 息 也 相 对 稳 健 可 靠 。 你 这 种 ?灰 狼 来 了 就 抄 底 优 质 资 产 ?的 逻 辑 ， 其 实 挺 聪 明 的 ??危 中 有 机 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:49) Posted: Trump and the world leaders who is kissing whose asses .https://youtu.be/LleqBkUeuEs?si=ZLdo-YrG8D24sRbu chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:36) Posted: If Trump tariffs cause global trade to break down like in 2009 (post-GFC slump), here are the major implications: 1. Global Economic Slowdown Exports & imports drop: Countries reliant on trade, like Germany, China, and many Southeast Asian economies, would see GDP contract. Manufacturing hit: Global supply chains would seize up factory output and capital goods demand would decline. Emerging markets vulnerable: Export-heavy economies with high USD debt may face capital flight, weaker currencies, and inflation. 2. Financial Market Volatility Equity selloffs: Exporters, global tech, and industrials would be hit hard. Safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold likely rally. Credit stress: Slowing trade hurts corporate revenues, especially for leveraged firms, triggering downgrades or defaults. Currency wars: Countries may devalue to stay competitive, risking a spiral of retaliatory moves. 3. Commodities Crash Lower global trade volume = lower demand for oil, metals, and other raw materials. Expect sharp drops in prices. 4. Central Bank Reaction Rate cuts/QE: Central banks would likely cut interest rates again or restart asset purchases. Policy coordination? In 2009 there was coordination (G20), but today?s geopolitical climate is more fractured. 5. Asia & Singapore Impact Singapore banks like OCBC, DBS, UOB could see weaker loan growth and slower wealth management flows. MAS might ease policy. China-exposed businesses like OCBC (via Wing Hang) or Yanlord may feel heat if US-China tension escalates further. 到 底 有 几 只 美 国 的 大 灰 狼
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 11:49        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Trump and the world leaders who is kissing whose asses .https://youtu.be/LleqBkUeuEs?si=ZLdo-YrG8D24sRbu chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:36) Posted: If Trump tariffs cause global trade to break down like in 2009 (post-GFC slump), here are the major implications: 1. Global Economic Slowdown Exports & imports drop: Countries reliant on trade, like Germany, China, and many Southeast Asian economies, would see GDP contract. Manufacturing hit: Global supply chains would seize up factory output and capital goods demand would decline. Emerging markets vulnerable: Export-heavy economies with high USD debt may face capital flight, weaker currencies, and inflation. 2. Financial Market Volatility Equity selloffs: Exporters, global tech, and industrials would be hit hard. Safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold likely rally. Credit stress: Slowing trade hurts corporate revenues, especially for leveraged firms, triggering downgrades or defaults. Currency wars: Countries may devalue to stay competitive, risking a spiral of retaliatory moves. 3. Commodities Crash Lower global trade volume = lower demand for oil, metals, and other raw materials. Expect sharp drops in prices. 4. Central Bank Reaction Rate cuts/QE: Central banks would likely cut interest rates again or restart asset purchases. Policy coordination? In 2009 there was coordination (G20), but today?s geopolitical climate is more fractured. 5. Asia & Singapore Impact Singapore banks like OCBC, DBS, UOB could see weaker loan growth and slower wealth management flows. MAS might ease policy. China-exposed businesses like OCBC (via Wing Hang) or Yanlord may feel heat if US-China tension escalates further. 到 底 有 几 只 美 国 的 大 灰 狼 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:30) Posted: IX（ 恐 慌 指 數 ） 會 不 會 回 到 30， 取 決 於 市 場 對 風 險 的 預 期 ， 而 這 往 往 受 到 幾 個 主 要 因 素 影 響 ： 地 緣 政 治 或 宏 觀 風 險 突 然 升 溫 ： 如 中 東 衝 突 升 級 、 美 中 關 係 緊 張 、 或 重 大 選 舉 結 果 不 確 定 （ 如 美 國 大 選 ） 。 市 場 突 然 大 幅 回 調 ： 如 果 標 普 500指 數 出 現 5~10%的 快 速 跌 幅 ， VIX 很 容 易 飆 升 到 30以 上 。 流 動 性 緊 縮 或 利 率 政 策 轉 變 ： 例 如 美 聯 儲 比 市 場 預 期 更 鷹 派 ， 可 能 會 推 高 市 場 波 動 預 期 。 市 場 定 價 過 於 樂 觀 ： 如 果 投 資 者 過 於 自 滿 ， 任 何 負 面 訊 號 都 可 能 引 發 恐 慌 性 拋 售 。 截 至 目 前 （ 2025年 4月 ） ， VIX 在 13~17左 右 波 動 ， 屬 於 歷 史 上 的 低 檔 水 準 。 若 沒 有 重 大 市 場 衝 擊 ， 一 般 不 容 易 回 到 30。 但 如 果 你 在 問 「 有 沒 有 可 能 」 回 到 30， 答 案 是 ： 可 能 ， 但 需 重 大 催 化 劑 。 若 你 是 在 考 慮 買 入 VIX call options 或 想 用 VIX 作 為 避 險 手 段 ， 建 議 考 慮 時 間 點 與 成 本 ， 因 為 VIX 長 期 呈 現 均 值 回 歸 ， 但 難 以 長 期 停 留 在 高 位 。 你 是 擔 心 某 種 市 場 風 險 ， 還 是 考 慮 做 某 種 避 險 操 作 ？ 我 可 以 幫 你 看 一 下 更 具 體 的 情 境 可 能 性 很 大 特 狼 不 的 狼 来 了 第 一 次 还 可 以 接 下 来 叫 不 出 狼 来 就 会 被 全 球 的 饿 狮 干 掉 。
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 11:36        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If Trump tariffs cause global trade to break down like in 2009 (post-GFC slump), here are the major implications: 1. Global Economic Slowdown Exports & imports drop: Countries reliant on trade, like Germany, China, and many Southeast Asian economies, would see GDP contract. Manufacturing hit: Global supply chains would seize up factory output and capital goods demand would decline. Emerging markets vulnerable: Export-heavy economies with high USD debt may face capital flight, weaker currencies, and inflation. 2. Financial Market Volatility Equity selloffs: Exporters, global tech, and industrials would be hit hard. Safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold likely rally. Credit stress: Slowing trade hurts corporate revenues, especially for leveraged firms, triggering downgrades or defaults. Currency wars: Countries may devalue to stay competitive, risking a spiral of retaliatory moves. 3. Commodities Crash Lower global trade volume = lower demand for oil, metals, and other raw materials. Expect sharp drops in prices. 4. Central Bank Reaction Rate cuts/QE: Central banks would likely cut interest rates again or restart asset purchases. Policy coordination? In 2009 there was coordination (G20), but today?s geopolitical climate is more fractured. 5. Asia & Singapore Impact Singapore banks like OCBC, DBS, UOB could see weaker loan growth and slower wealth management flows. MAS might ease policy. China-exposed businesses like OCBC (via Wing Hang) or Yanlord may feel heat if US-China tension escalates further. 到 底 有 几 只 美 国 的 大 灰 狼 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:30) Posted: IX（ 恐 慌 指 數 ） 會 不 會 回 到 30， 取 決 於 市 場 對 風 險 的 預 期 ， 而 這 往 往 受 到 幾 個 主 要 因 素 影 響 ： 地 緣 政 治 或 宏 觀 風 險 突 然 升 溫 ： 如 中 東 衝 突 升 級 、 美 中 關 係 緊 張 、 或 重 大 選 舉 結 果 不 確 定 （ 如 美 國 大 選 ） 。 市 場 突 然 大 幅 回 調 ： 如 果 標 普 500指 數 出 現 5~10%的 快 速 跌 幅 ， VIX 很 容 易 飆 升 到 30以 上 。 流 動 性 緊 縮 或 利 率 政 策 轉 變 ： 例 如 美 聯 儲 比 市 場 預 期 更 鷹 派 ， 可 能 會 推 高 市 場 波 動 預 期 。 市 場 定 價 過 於 樂 觀 ： 如 果 投 資 者 過 於 自 滿 ， 任 何 負 面 訊 號 都 可 能 引 發 恐 慌 性 拋 售 。 截 至 目 前 （ 2025年 4月 ） ， VIX 在 13~17左 右 波 動 ， 屬 於 歷 史 上 的 低 檔 水 準 。 若 沒 有 重 大 市 場 衝 擊 ， 一 般 不 容 易 回 到 30。 但 如 果 你 在 問 「 有 沒 有 可 能 」 回 到 30， 答 案 是 ： 可 能 ， 但 需 重 大 催 化 劑 。 若 你 是 在 考 慮 買 入 VIX call options 或 想 用 VIX 作 為 避 險 手 段 ， 建 議 考 慮 時 間 點 與 成 本 ， 因 為 VIX 長 期 呈 現 均 值 回 歸 ， 但 難 以 長 期 停 留 在 高 位 。 你 是 擔 心 某 種 市 場 風 險 ， 還 是 考 慮 做 某 種 避 險 操 作 ？ 我 可 以 幫 你 看 一 下 更 具 體 的 情 境 可 能 性 很 大 特 狼 不 的 狼 来 了 第 一 次 还 可 以 接 下 来 叫 不 出 狼 来 就 会 被 全 球 的 饿 狮 干 掉 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:24) Posted: Chinese billionaires in Singapore Billionaires who hold large amounts of cash before a global depression can benefit in several ways: 1. Buying Assets at Bargain Prices During a depression, asset prices?stocks, real estate, businesses?tend to plummet as people panic-sell to raise cash. Those with cash can buy these assets at significant discounts, positioning themselves for huge gains when the economy recovers. 2. Acquiring Distressed Businesses Cheaply Many companies struggle or go bankrupt due to cash flow issues. Cash-rich investors can buy controlling stakes in struggling but fundamentally sound businesses at deeply discounted prices. 3. Providing Liquidity at High Returns With banks hesitant to lend, cash holders can provide capital through private loans or distressed debt investments, often earning double-digit interest rates or securing assets as collateral. 4. Gaining Control Over Industries When entire industries are distressed, cash-rich investors can consolidate power by buying multiple companies or infrastructure at a discount, creating monopolies or oligopolies. 5. Real Estate and Land Grabs Depressions often lead to property foreclosures and forced sales. Billionaires can scoop up prime real estate at depressed valuations, benefiting when property values recover. 6. Influencing Policy and Regulation With governments seeking capital injections, cash-rich individuals can negotiate favorable deals, tax breaks, or policy changes that benefit their businesses. 7. Currency and Inflation Arbitrage If a depression leads to currency collapses, billionaires with cash (especially in strong currencies like USD or CHF) can buy foreign assets at extreme discounts. If inflation spikes post-depression, their hard assets appreciate significantly. 8. Stock Market Manipulation With enough cash, they can drive market sentiment by strategically buying shares, leading to rallies that benefit their positions. Historical Examples John D. Rockefeller bought assets during downturns and expanded his oil empire. Warren Buffett invested billions in distressed banks during the 2008 financial crisis, securing lucrative long-term deals. JP Morgan bailed out banks in the Panic of 1907, gaining influence over Wall Street. Billionaires don?t just survive depressions?they thrive by turning economic chaos into wealth-building opportunities.
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 11:30        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	IX（ 恐 慌 指 數 ） 會 不 會 回 到 30， 取 決 於 市 場 對 風 險 的 預 期 ， 而 這 往 往 受 到 幾 個 主 要 因 素 影 響 ： 地 緣 政 治 或 宏 觀 風 險 突 然 升 溫 ： 如 中 東 衝 突 升 級 、 美 中 關 係 緊 張 、 或 重 大 選 舉 結 果 不 確 定 （ 如 美 國 大 選 ） 。 市 場 突 然 大 幅 回 調 ： 如 果 標 普 500指 數 出 現 5~10%的 快 速 跌 幅 ， VIX 很 容 易 飆 升 到 30以 上 。 流 動 性 緊 縮 或 利 率 政 策 轉 變 ： 例 如 美 聯 儲 比 市 場 預 期 更 鷹 派 ， 可 能 會 推 高 市 場 波 動 預 期 。 市 場 定 價 過 於 樂 觀 ： 如 果 投 資 者 過 於 自 滿 ， 任 何 負 面 訊 號 都 可 能 引 發 恐 慌 性 拋 售 。 截 至 目 前 （ 2025年 4月 ） ， VIX 在 13~17左 右 波 動 ， 屬 於 歷 史 上 的 低 檔 水 準 。 若 沒 有 重 大 市 場 衝 擊 ， 一 般 不 容 易 回 到 30。 但 如 果 你 在 問 「 有 沒 有 可 能 」 回 到 30， 答 案 是 ： 可 能 ， 但 需 重 大 催 化 劑 。 若 你 是 在 考 慮 買 入 VIX call options 或 想 用 VIX 作 為 避 險 手 段 ， 建 議 考 慮 時 間 點 與 成 本 ， 因 為 VIX 長 期 呈 現 均 值 回 歸 ， 但 難 以 長 期 停 留 在 高 位 。 你 是 擔 心 某 種 市 場 風 險 ， 還 是 考 慮 做 某 種 避 險 操 作 ？ 我 可 以 幫 你 看 一 下 更 具 體 的 情 境 可 能 性 很 大 特 狼 不 的 狼 来 了 第 一 次 还 可 以 接 下 来 叫 不 出 狼 来 就 会 被 全 球 的 饿 狮 干 掉 。 chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 11:24) Posted: Chinese billionaires in Singapore Billionaires who hold large amounts of cash before a global depression can benefit in several ways: 1. Buying Assets at Bargain Prices During a depression, asset prices?stocks, real estate, businesses?tend to plummet as people panic-sell to raise cash. Those with cash can buy these assets at significant discounts, positioning themselves for huge gains when the economy recovers. 2. Acquiring Distressed Businesses Cheaply Many companies struggle or go bankrupt due to cash flow issues. Cash-rich investors can buy controlling stakes in struggling but fundamentally sound businesses at deeply discounted prices. 3. Providing Liquidity at High Returns With banks hesitant to lend, cash holders can provide capital through private loans or distressed debt investments, often earning double-digit interest rates or securing assets as collateral. 4. Gaining Control Over Industries When entire industries are distressed, cash-rich investors can consolidate power by buying multiple companies or infrastructure at a discount, creating monopolies or oligopolies. 5. Real Estate and Land Grabs Depressions often lead to property foreclosures and forced sales. Billionaires can scoop up prime real estate at depressed valuations, benefiting when property values recover. 6. Influencing Policy and Regulation With governments seeking capital injections, cash-rich individuals can negotiate favorable deals, tax breaks, or policy changes that benefit their businesses. 7. Currency and Inflation Arbitrage If a depression leads to currency collapses, billionaires with cash (especially in strong currencies like USD or CHF) can buy foreign assets at extreme discounts. If inflation spikes post-depression, their hard assets appreciate significantly. 8. Stock Market Manipulation With enough cash, they can drive market sentiment by strategically buying shares, leading to rallies that benefit their positions. Historical Examples John D. Rockefeller bought assets during downturns and expanded his oil empire. Warren Buffett invested billions in distressed banks during the 2008 financial crisis, securing lucrative long-term deals. JP Morgan bailed out banks in the Panic of 1907, gaining influence over Wall Street. Billionaires don?t just survive depressions?they thrive by turning economic chaos into wealth-building opportunities.
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 11:24        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Chinese billionaires in Singapore Billionaires who hold large amounts of cash before a global depression can benefit in several ways: 1. Buying Assets at Bargain Prices During a depression, asset prices?stocks, real estate, businesses?tend to plummet as people panic-sell to raise cash. Those with cash can buy these assets at significant discounts, positioning themselves for huge gains when the economy recovers. 2. Acquiring Distressed Businesses Cheaply Many companies struggle or go bankrupt due to cash flow issues. Cash-rich investors can buy controlling stakes in struggling but fundamentally sound businesses at deeply discounted prices. 3. Providing Liquidity at High Returns With banks hesitant to lend, cash holders can provide capital through private loans or distressed debt investments, often earning double-digit interest rates or securing assets as collateral. 4. Gaining Control Over Industries When entire industries are distressed, cash-rich investors can consolidate power by buying multiple companies or infrastructure at a discount, creating monopolies or oligopolies. 5. Real Estate and Land Grabs Depressions often lead to property foreclosures and forced sales. Billionaires can scoop up prime real estate at depressed valuations, benefiting when property values recover. 6. Influencing Policy and Regulation With governments seeking capital injections, cash-rich individuals can negotiate favorable deals, tax breaks, or policy changes that benefit their businesses. 7. Currency and Inflation Arbitrage If a depression leads to currency collapses, billionaires with cash (especially in strong currencies like USD or CHF) can buy foreign assets at extreme discounts. If inflation spikes post-depression, their hard assets appreciate significantly. 8. Stock Market Manipulation With enough cash, they can drive market sentiment by strategically buying shares, leading to rallies that benefit their positions. Historical Examples John D. Rockefeller bought assets during downturns and expanded his oil empire. Warren Buffett invested billions in distressed banks during the 2008 financial crisis, securing lucrative long-term deals. JP Morgan bailed out banks in the Panic of 1907, gaining influence over Wall Street. Billionaires don?t just survive depressions?they thrive by turning economic chaos into wealth-building opportunities.
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 09:38        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That's a sharp observation?and not far from what some analysts suspect might be Trump?s strategic thinking. If Donald Trump returns to office, he has floated the idea of imposing universal tariffs?including a 10% tariff on all imports and even 60%+ tariffs on China. Such aggressive protectionist policies could: Raise prices of imported goods?creating short-term inflation domestically. Trigger retaliation?which could slow global trade and hurt multinational corporate profits. Spook financial markets?potentially causing a global stock market selloff, especially in export-heavy economies like Germany, Japan, South Korea, and China. Cause global deflationary pressure?as weaker global demand reduces commodity prices, corporate earnings, and wages abroad. So yes, one interpretation is that Trump might intentionally create a global slowdown (via tariffs and uncertainty) to export inflation pain and lower U.S. inflation in the medium term?potentially allowing the Fed to ease. Trump and his American supporters will have to do create and make food products and services by themselves.nibody will buy from them if their iPhone costs 509 times than other countries products or their netflix or Instagram or Facebook costs few hundreds time more than others chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 09:33) Posted: Yes, that?s a smart move?classic rotation opportunity. When institutional funds rotate out of UOB to lock in gains and pile into DBS or OCBC due to valuation gaps or short-term catalysts (like NIM trends, dividend surprises, or corporate actions), UOB can temporarily lag in price even if its fundamentals remain strong. If you're confident in UOB?s long-term story?like the $3B capital return program, special dividend, strong regional exposure, and disciplined risk management?then buying during these phases of relative weakness can enhance your long-term return. You?re essentially buying quality on sale while others chase momentum. chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 09:26) Posted: Yes, minority shareholders have indeed raised concerns regarding OCBC CEO Helen Wong's re-election as a director of Great Eastern Holdings (GEH) during the company's recent annual general meeting (AGM).​ Background OCBC, which currently owns approximately 88.4% of GEH, has been pursuing full ownership of the insurer. In May 2024, OCBC made a S$1.4 billion offer to acquire the remaining shares, representing a 37% premium over the share price at that time. However, some minority shareholders, including activist investor Palliser Capital, argue that this offer undervalues GEH, citing an EY valuation suggesting a higher price range .​ Business Times+5Financial Times+5Business Times+5 Shareholder Concerns At the AGM, minority shareholders expressed apprehensions about potential conflicts of interest, particularly concerning Helen Wong's dual roles as OCBC CEO and GEH director. They questioned whether her position might influence decisions that favor OCBC's interests over those of GEH's minority shareholders.​ Business Times+1MarketScreener+1 Additionally, there are concerns about executive compensation structures. GEH executives, including CEO Khor Hock Seng, receive a significant portion of their remuneration in OCBC shares rather than GEH shares. This practice has led to questions about the alignment of executives' interests with those of GEH's minority shareholders .​ The Straits Times+1Business Times+1 Business Times Institutional Responses The Securities Investors Association (Singapore) (SIAS) has urged GEH's board to address these concerns earnestly. SIAS emphasized the importance of considering the substantive issues raised by shareholders rather than dismissing them on legal technicalities. They also suggested that the board explore measures to better align executive compensation with GEH's performance and shareholder interests .​ MarketScreener+3Business Times+3The Straits Times+3 The Straits Times Recent Developments In an effort to address shareholder concerns, Helen Wong has engaged directly with key minority shareholders, including members of the Lee family and descendants of former GEH chairman Wong Siew Qui. These meetings aim to persuade shareholders to support OCBC's acquisition bid and to address apprehensions about governance and valuation .​ Caproasia Business Times The situation remains dynamic, with ongoing discussions between OCBC, GEH, and minority shareholders. Regulatory bodies like the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) are monitoring the developments closely to ensure fair treatment of all shareholders.​
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 09:33        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, that?s a smart move?classic rotation opportunity. When institutional funds rotate out of UOB to lock in gains and pile into DBS or OCBC due to valuation gaps or short-term catalysts (like NIM trends, dividend surprises, or corporate actions), UOB can temporarily lag in price even if its fundamentals remain strong. If you're confident in UOB?s long-term story?like the $3B capital return program, special dividend, strong regional exposure, and disciplined risk management?then buying during these phases of relative weakness can enhance your long-term return. You?re essentially buying quality on sale while others chase momentum. chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 09:26) Posted: Yes, minority shareholders have indeed raised concerns regarding OCBC CEO Helen Wong's re-election as a director of Great Eastern Holdings (GEH) during the company's recent annual general meeting (AGM).​ Background OCBC, which currently owns approximately 88.4% of GEH, has been pursuing full ownership of the insurer. In May 2024, OCBC made a S$1.4 billion offer to acquire the remaining shares, representing a 37% premium over the share price at that time. However, some minority shareholders, including activist investor Palliser Capital, argue that this offer undervalues GEH, citing an EY valuation suggesting a higher price range .​ Business Times+5Financial Times+5Business Times+5 Shareholder Concerns At the AGM, minority shareholders expressed apprehensions about potential conflicts of interest, particularly concerning Helen Wong's dual roles as OCBC CEO and GEH director. They questioned whether her position might influence decisions that favor OCBC's interests over those of GEH's minority shareholders.​ Business Times+1MarketScreener+1 Additionally, there are concerns about executive compensation structures. GEH executives, including CEO Khor Hock Seng, receive a significant portion of their remuneration in OCBC shares rather than GEH shares. This practice has led to questions about the alignment of executives' interests with those of GEH's minority shareholders .​ The Straits Times+1Business Times+1 Business Times Institutional Responses The Securities Investors Association (Singapore) (SIAS) has urged GEH's board to address these concerns earnestly. SIAS emphasized the importance of considering the substantive issues raised by shareholders rather than dismissing them on legal technicalities. They also suggested that the board explore measures to better align executive compensation with GEH's performance and shareholder interests .​ MarketScreener+3Business Times+3The Straits Times+3 The Straits Times Recent Developments In an effort to address shareholder concerns, Helen Wong has engaged directly with key minority shareholders, including members of the Lee family and descendants of former GEH chairman Wong Siew Qui. These meetings aim to persuade shareholders to support OCBC's acquisition bid and to address apprehensions about governance and valuation .​ Caproasia Business Times The situation remains dynamic, with ongoing discussions between OCBC, GEH, and minority shareholders. Regulatory bodies like the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) are monitoring the developments closely to ensure fair treatment of all shareholders.​ chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 09:24) Posted: Minority shareholders question OCBC CEO Helen Wong?s re-election as director of Great Eastern Minority shareholders of Great Eastern Holdings have expressed concerns regarding the re-election of OCBC CEO Helen Wong as a director of the insurer. Their apprehensions stem from perceived conflicts of interest and corporate governance issues amid OCBC's ongoing attempt to acquire full ownership of Great Eastern.​ Caproasia+8The Straits Times+8The Business Times+8 Caproasia+4The Business Times+4The Straits Times+4 OCBC, which currently holds over 88% of Great Eastern, announced a S$1.4 billion offer in May 2024 to acquire the remaining shares it does not own, aiming to delist the insurer from the Singapore Exchange. The offer price of S$25.60 per share represents a 36.9% premium over the last traded price before the announcement. ​ The Straits Times+5OCBC+5The Straits Times+5 Financial Times+3Caproasia+3OCBC+3 However, some minority shareholders, including activist investor Palliser Capital, argue that the offer undervalues Great Eastern. They cite an EY valuation suggesting a higher price range and raise concerns about the fairness of the deal. Additionally, they highlight that several Great Eastern executives and board members, who are former OCBC executives, receive a significant portion of their compensation in OCBC shares, potentially creating conflicts of interest. ​ The Business Times+7Financial Times+7The Business Times+7 In response to the pushback, Helen Wong has engaged directly with key minority shareholders, including members of the Lee family and descendants of former Great Eastern chairman Wong Siew Qui, to persuade them to support OCBC's offer. ​ The Straits Times+2The Business Times+2Caproasia+2 The Securities Investors Association (Singapore) has also urged Great Eastern to address minority investors' concerns transparently, emphasizing the importance of robust corporate governance and fair treatment of all shareholders. ​ The Business Times+1Financial Times+1 As of now, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Singapore Exchange are monitoring the situation, while Great Eastern has not publicly engaged with the concerns raised by minority shareholders. ​ Financial Time
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 09:26        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, minority shareholders have indeed raised concerns regarding OCBC CEO Helen Wong's re-election as a director of Great Eastern Holdings (GEH) during the company's recent annual general meeting (AGM).​ Background OCBC, which currently owns approximately 88.4% of GEH, has been pursuing full ownership of the insurer. In May 2024, OCBC made a S$1.4 billion offer to acquire the remaining shares, representing a 37% premium over the share price at that time. However, some minority shareholders, including activist investor Palliser Capital, argue that this offer undervalues GEH, citing an EY valuation suggesting a higher price range .​ Business Times+5Financial Times+5Business Times+5 Shareholder Concerns At the AGM, minority shareholders expressed apprehensions about potential conflicts of interest, particularly concerning Helen Wong's dual roles as OCBC CEO and GEH director. They questioned whether her position might influence decisions that favor OCBC's interests over those of GEH's minority shareholders.​ Business Times+1MarketScreener+1 Additionally, there are concerns about executive compensation structures. GEH executives, including CEO Khor Hock Seng, receive a significant portion of their remuneration in OCBC shares rather than GEH shares. This practice has led to questions about the alignment of executives' interests with those of GEH's minority shareholders .​ The Straits Times+1Business Times+1 Business Times Institutional Responses The Securities Investors Association (Singapore) (SIAS) has urged GEH's board to address these concerns earnestly. SIAS emphasized the importance of considering the substantive issues raised by shareholders rather than dismissing them on legal technicalities. They also suggested that the board explore measures to better align executive compensation with GEH's performance and shareholder interests .​ MarketScreener+3Business Times+3The Straits Times+3 The Straits Times Recent Developments In an effort to address shareholder concerns, Helen Wong has engaged directly with key minority shareholders, including members of the Lee family and descendants of former GEH chairman Wong Siew Qui. These meetings aim to persuade shareholders to support OCBC's acquisition bid and to address apprehensions about governance and valuation .​ Caproasia Business Times The situation remains dynamic, with ongoing discussions between OCBC, GEH, and minority shareholders. Regulatory bodies like the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) are monitoring the developments closely to ensure fair treatment of all shareholders.​ chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 09:24) Posted: Minority shareholders question OCBC CEO Helen Wong?s re-election as director of Great Eastern Minority shareholders of Great Eastern Holdings have expressed concerns regarding the re-election of OCBC CEO Helen Wong as a director of the insurer. Their apprehensions stem from perceived conflicts of interest and corporate governance issues amid OCBC's ongoing attempt to acquire full ownership of Great Eastern.​ Caproasia+8The Straits Times+8The Business Times+8 Caproasia+4The Business Times+4The Straits Times+4 OCBC, which currently holds over 88% of Great Eastern, announced a S$1.4 billion offer in May 2024 to acquire the remaining shares it does not own, aiming to delist the insurer from the Singapore Exchange. The offer price of S$25.60 per share represents a 36.9% premium over the last traded price before the announcement. ​ The Straits Times+5OCBC+5The Straits Times+5 Financial Times+3Caproasia+3OCBC+3 However, some minority shareholders, including activist investor Palliser Capital, argue that the offer undervalues Great Eastern. They cite an EY valuation suggesting a higher price range and raise concerns about the fairness of the deal. Additionally, they highlight that several Great Eastern executives and board members, who are former OCBC executives, receive a significant portion of their compensation in OCBC shares, potentially creating conflicts of interest. ​ The Business Times+7Financial Times+7The Business Times+7 In response to the pushback, Helen Wong has engaged directly with key minority shareholders, including members of the Lee family and descendants of former Great Eastern chairman Wong Siew Qui, to persuade them to support OCBC's offer. ​ The Straits Times+2The Business Times+2Caproasia+2 The Securities Investors Association (Singapore) has also urged Great Eastern to address minority investors' concerns transparently, emphasizing the importance of robust corporate governance and fair treatment of all shareholders. ​ The Business Times+1Financial Times+1 As of now, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Singapore Exchange are monitoring the situation, while Great Eastern has not publicly engaged with the concerns raised by minority shareholders. ​ Financial Times chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 09:17) Posted: The real fight in global stock markets will be October 2025 and may 2026 As long as Singapore has strong reserve it can fight back this attacks from outside Singapore?s national reserves in 2025 remain among the strongest globally and are more than sufficient to defend the country?s financial system ? including its three local banks (DBS, OCBC, and UOB) ? from speculative or foreign-led attacks in the stock market. Here?s why: 1. Massive National Reserves Singapore?s official foreign reserves stood at over US$290 billion (as of late 2024). Combined with Temasek Holdings and GIC, the total sovereign wealth under management is estimated to exceed US$1.5 trillion. These are among the highest per capita reserves in the world, giving MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) vast firepower. 2. MAS as a Capable Defender MAS functions as both the central bank and financial regulator. It can: Intervene in the currency or equity markets. Manage liquidity across the financial system. Coordinate with Temasek or GIC if state-backed action is needed. MAS also has swap lines and global cooperation agreements with key central banks (e.g., Fed, PBOC). 3. Temasek and GIC Can Support the Banks Temasek is a major shareholder in DBS and has historically supported Singapore banks during crises (e.g., 2008 GFC). GIC has the discretion to deploy long-term capital strategically to maintain market stability and confidence. 4. Singapore Banks Are Fundamentally Strong All three banks have: High capital adequacy ratios well above Basel III requirements. Strong liquidity coverage ratios. Prudent risk management with diversified regional income. High credit ratings (AA-/Aa1 or equivalent). This means even in the face of market volatility, the banks have the buffer to withstand shocks. 5. Regulatory Safeguards Against Manipulation Singapore Exchange (SGX) and MAS actively monitor for irregular trading. There are market surveillance tools to detect and stop manipulation, including foreign-led bear raids. In short: yes, Singapore?s reserves ? backed by strong institutions, proactive regulators, and fundamentally sound banks ? are more than capable of defending its local banks from foreign agent attacks in the stock market. Would you like a historical comparison, e.g., how Singapore handled past crises like 1997, 2008, or 2020? You said: How we use our Singapore reserve make a historical comparison, e.g., how Singapore handled past crises like 1997, 2008, or 2020? ChatGPT said: Great question. Let?s break down how Singapore used its reserves during past financial crises ? 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic ? and how that experience could guide future defense of our local banks or financial system. 1. Asian Financial Crisis (1997?1998) What happened: Massive capital outflows hit Southeast Asian economies. Currencies plunged banking systems in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea came under attack. Speculative attacks on currencies and stock markets were common. Singapore?s Response: Did not need to use reserves directly. The Singapore dollar was allowed to gradually depreciate, but MAS maintained tight liquidity to discourage speculation. MAS raised interest rates and intervened selectively in the FX market. Local banks remained stable due to strong regulation and capital controls. Temasek did not need to rescue any bank. Takeaway: Strong fundamentals and MAS?s reputation discouraged attacks. Singapore weathered the crisis better than its neighbors. 2. Global Financial Crisis (2008?2009) What happened: Lehman collapsed, credit markets froze. Global bank shares collapsed, and capital dried up. Even strong banks needed liquidity and capital buffers. Singapore?s Response: Direct use of reserves was still limited, but the government acted decisively: Guarantee of all SGD and foreign currency deposits in Singapore banks (up to S$150 billion) ? backed by past reserves. MAS injected liquidity into the system, ensuring smooth interbank lending. Temasek Holdings supported DBS and did not need to sell assets at a loss. Fiscal stimulus funded from budget surpluses, not reserves. Takeaway: Singapore used the moral and financial credibility of reserves to guarantee deposits and stabilize markets without deploying capital directly into banks. 3. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020?2021) What happened: Global lockdowns, sharp GDP contractions. Businesses shuttered, unemployment rose. Banks remained sound but faced loan defaults risk. Singapore?s Response: For the first time in history, reserves were drawn down directly to fund emergency Budgets: S$52 billion from past reserves were tapped across several Budgets. Used to fund wage subsidies, SME loans, and household aid. Banks benefited indirectly: defaults reduced, and credit markets remained healthy. MAS provided low-cost funding facilities to support lending. Temasek and GIC stayed steady, backing stability in markets by not panic-selling assets. Takeaway: Singapore openly used past reserves for national resilience, while maintaining confidence that more could be tapped if needed. Key Lessons and Current Relevance (2025): Crisis Direct Use of Reserves Impact on Banks Government Action 1997 No Minimal MAS managed liquidity, raised rates 2008 Indirect (guarantees) Moderate Deposit guarantee liquidity support 2020 Yes (S$52B) Indirect aid Wage support, SME credit, loan moratoriums So, for 2025: If foreign agents were to short Singapore banks, the country can: Deploy reserves to stabilize the market (e.g., Temasek/GIC buying shares or supporting ETFs). MAS can backstop liquidity and guarantee deposits again. Public confidence, built over decades of prudent reserve management, will deter most attacks before they start.
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 09:24        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Minority shareholders question OCBC CEO Helen Wong?s re-election as director of Great Eastern Minority shareholders of Great Eastern Holdings have expressed concerns regarding the re-election of OCBC CEO Helen Wong as a director of the insurer. Their apprehensions stem from perceived conflicts of interest and corporate governance issues amid OCBC's ongoing attempt to acquire full ownership of Great Eastern.​ Caproasia+8The Straits Times+8The Business Times+8 Caproasia+4The Business Times+4The Straits Times+4 OCBC, which currently holds over 88% of Great Eastern, announced a S$1.4 billion offer in May 2024 to acquire the remaining shares it does not own, aiming to delist the insurer from the Singapore Exchange. The offer price of S$25.60 per share represents a 36.9% premium over the last traded price before the announcement. ​ The Straits Times+5OCBC+5The Straits Times+5 Financial Times+3Caproasia+3OCBC+3 However, some minority shareholders, including activist investor Palliser Capital, argue that the offer undervalues Great Eastern. They cite an EY valuation suggesting a higher price range and raise concerns about the fairness of the deal. Additionally, they highlight that several Great Eastern executives and board members, who are former OCBC executives, receive a significant portion of their compensation in OCBC shares, potentially creating conflicts of interest. ​ The Business Times+7Financial Times+7The Business Times+7 In response to the pushback, Helen Wong has engaged directly with key minority shareholders, including members of the Lee family and descendants of former Great Eastern chairman Wong Siew Qui, to persuade them to support OCBC's offer. ​ The Straits Times+2The Business Times+2Caproasia+2 The Securities Investors Association (Singapore) has also urged Great Eastern to address minority investors' concerns transparently, emphasizing the importance of robust corporate governance and fair treatment of all shareholders. ​ The Business Times+1Financial Times+1 As of now, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Singapore Exchange are monitoring the situation, while Great Eastern has not publicly engaged with the concerns raised by minority shareholders. ​ Financial Times chartistkaohz      ( Date: 17-Apr-2025 09:17) Posted: The real fight in global stock markets will be October 2025 and may 2026 As long as Singapore has strong reserve it can fight back this attacks from outside Singapore?s national reserves in 2025 remain among the strongest globally and are more than sufficient to defend the country?s financial system ? including its three local banks (DBS, OCBC, and UOB) ? from speculative or foreign-led attacks in the stock market. Here?s why: 1. Massive National Reserves Singapore?s official foreign reserves stood at over US$290 billion (as of late 2024). Combined with Temasek Holdings and GIC, the total sovereign wealth under management is estimated to exceed US$1.5 trillion. These are among the highest per capita reserves in the world, giving MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) vast firepower. 2. MAS as a Capable Defender MAS functions as both the central bank and financial regulator. It can: Intervene in the currency or equity markets. Manage liquidity across the financial system. Coordinate with Temasek or GIC if state-backed action is needed. MAS also has swap lines and global cooperation agreements with key central banks (e.g., Fed, PBOC). 3. Temasek and GIC Can Support the Banks Temasek is a major shareholder in DBS and has historically supported Singapore banks during crises (e.g., 2008 GFC). GIC has the discretion to deploy long-term capital strategically to maintain market stability and confidence. 4. Singapore Banks Are Fundamentally Strong All three banks have: High capital adequacy ratios well above Basel III requirements. Strong liquidity coverage ratios. Prudent risk management with diversified regional income. High credit ratings (AA-/Aa1 or equivalent). This means even in the face of market volatility, the banks have the buffer to withstand shocks. 5. Regulatory Safeguards Against Manipulation Singapore Exchange (SGX) and MAS actively monitor for irregular trading. There are market surveillance tools to detect and stop manipulation, including foreign-led bear raids. In short: yes, Singapore?s reserves ? backed by strong institutions, proactive regulators, and fundamentally sound banks ? are more than capable of defending its local banks from foreign agent attacks in the stock market. Would you like a historical comparison, e.g., how Singapore handled past crises like 1997, 2008, or 2020? You said: How we use our Singapore reserve make a historical comparison, e.g., how Singapore handled past crises like 1997, 2008, or 2020? ChatGPT said: Great question. Let?s break down how Singapore used its reserves during past financial crises ? 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic ? and how that experience could guide future defense of our local banks or financial system. 1. Asian Financial Crisis (1997?1998) What happened: Massive capital outflows hit Southeast Asian economies. Currencies plunged banking systems in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea came under attack. Speculative attacks on currencies and stock markets were common. Singapore?s Response: Did not need to use reserves directly. The Singapore dollar was allowed to gradually depreciate, but MAS maintained tight liquidity to discourage speculation. MAS raised interest rates and intervened selectively in the FX market. Local banks remained stable due to strong regulation and capital controls. Temasek did not need to rescue any bank. Takeaway: Strong fundamentals and MAS?s reputation discouraged attacks. Singapore weathered the crisis better than its neighbors. 2. Global Financial Crisis (2008?2009) What happened: Lehman collapsed, credit markets froze. Global bank shares collapsed, and capital dried up. Even strong banks needed liquidity and capital buffers. Singapore?s Response: Direct use of reserves was still limited, but the government acted decisively: Guarantee of all SGD and foreign currency deposits in Singapore banks (up to S$150 billion) ? backed by past reserves. MAS injected liquidity into the system, ensuring smooth interbank lending. Temasek Holdings supported DBS and did not need to sell assets at a loss. Fiscal stimulus funded from budget surpluses, not reserves. Takeaway: Singapore used the moral and financial credibility of reserves to guarantee deposits and stabilize markets without deploying capital directly into banks. 3. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020?2021) What happened: Global lockdowns, sharp GDP contractions. Businesses shuttered, unemployment rose. Banks remained sound but faced loan defaults risk. Singapore?s Response: For the first time in history, reserves were drawn down directly to fund emergency Budgets: S$52 billion from past reserves were tapped across several Budgets. Used to fund wage subsidies, SME loans, and household aid. Banks benefited indirectly: defaults reduced, and credit markets remained healthy. MAS provided low-cost funding facilities to support lending. Temasek and GIC stayed steady, backing stability in markets by not panic-selling assets. Takeaway: Singapore openly used past reserves for national resilience, while maintaining confidence that more could be tapped if needed. Key Lessons and Current Relevance (2025): Crisis Direct Use of Reserves Impact on Banks Government Action 1997 No Minimal MAS managed liquidity, raised rates 2008 Indirect (guarantees) Moderate Deposit guarantee liquidity support 2020 Yes (S$52B) Indirect aid Wage support, SME credit, loan moratoriums So, for 2025: If foreign agents were to short Singapore banks, the country can: Deploy reserves to stabilize the market (e.g., Temasek/GIC buying shares or supporting ETFs). MAS can backstop liquidity and guarantee deposits again. Public confidence, built over decades of prudent reserve management, will deter most attacks before they start.
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 09:17        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The real fight in global stock markets will be October 2025 and may 2026 As long as Singapore has strong reserve it can fight back this attacks from outside Singapore?s national reserves in 2025 remain among the strongest globally and are more than sufficient to defend the country?s financial system ? including its three local banks (DBS, OCBC, and UOB) ? from speculative or foreign-led attacks in the stock market. Here?s why: 1. Massive National Reserves Singapore?s official foreign reserves stood at over US$290 billion (as of late 2024). Combined with Temasek Holdings and GIC, the total sovereign wealth under management is estimated to exceed US$1.5 trillion. These are among the highest per capita reserves in the world, giving MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) vast firepower. 2. MAS as a Capable Defender MAS functions as both the central bank and financial regulator. It can: Intervene in the currency or equity markets. Manage liquidity across the financial system. Coordinate with Temasek or GIC if state-backed action is needed. MAS also has swap lines and global cooperation agreements with key central banks (e.g., Fed, PBOC). 3. Temasek and GIC Can Support the Banks Temasek is a major shareholder in DBS and has historically supported Singapore banks during crises (e.g., 2008 GFC). GIC has the discretion to deploy long-term capital strategically to maintain market stability and confidence. 4. Singapore Banks Are Fundamentally Strong All three banks have: High capital adequacy ratios well above Basel III requirements. Strong liquidity coverage ratios. Prudent risk management with diversified regional income. High credit ratings (AA-/Aa1 or equivalent). This means even in the face of market volatility, the banks have the buffer to withstand shocks. 5. Regulatory Safeguards Against Manipulation Singapore Exchange (SGX) and MAS actively monitor for irregular trading. There are market surveillance tools to detect and stop manipulation, including foreign-led bear raids. In short: yes, Singapore?s reserves ? backed by strong institutions, proactive regulators, and fundamentally sound banks ? are more than capable of defending its local banks from foreign agent attacks in the stock market. Would you like a historical comparison, e.g., how Singapore handled past crises like 1997, 2008, or 2020? You said: How we use our Singapore reserve make a historical comparison, e.g., how Singapore handled past crises like 1997, 2008, or 2020? ChatGPT said: Great question. Let?s break down how Singapore used its reserves during past financial crises ? 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic ? and how that experience could guide future defense of our local banks or financial system. 1. Asian Financial Crisis (1997?1998) What happened: Massive capital outflows hit Southeast Asian economies. Currencies plunged banking systems in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea came under attack. Speculative attacks on currencies and stock markets were common. Singapore?s Response: Did not need to use reserves directly. The Singapore dollar was allowed to gradually depreciate, but MAS maintained tight liquidity to discourage speculation. MAS raised interest rates and intervened selectively in the FX market. Local banks remained stable due to strong regulation and capital controls. Temasek did not need to rescue any bank. Takeaway: Strong fundamentals and MAS?s reputation discouraged attacks. Singapore weathered the crisis better than its neighbors. 2. Global Financial Crisis (2008?2009) What happened: Lehman collapsed, credit markets froze. Global bank shares collapsed, and capital dried up. Even strong banks needed liquidity and capital buffers. Singapore?s Response: Direct use of reserves was still limited, but the government acted decisively: Guarantee of all SGD and foreign currency deposits in Singapore banks (up to S$150 billion) ? backed by past reserves. MAS injected liquidity into the system, ensuring smooth interbank lending. Temasek Holdings supported DBS and did not need to sell assets at a loss. Fiscal stimulus funded from budget surpluses, not reserves. Takeaway: Singapore used the moral and financial credibility of reserves to guarantee deposits and stabilize markets without deploying capital directly into banks. 3. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020?2021) What happened: Global lockdowns, sharp GDP contractions. Businesses shuttered, unemployment rose. Banks remained sound but faced loan defaults risk. Singapore?s Response: For the first time in history, reserves were drawn down directly to fund emergency Budgets: S$52 billion from past reserves were tapped across several Budgets. Used to fund wage subsidies, SME loans, and household aid. Banks benefited indirectly: defaults reduced, and credit markets remained healthy. MAS provided low-cost funding facilities to support lending. Temasek and GIC stayed steady, backing stability in markets by not panic-selling assets. Takeaway: Singapore openly used past reserves for national resilience, while maintaining confidence that more could be tapped if needed. Key Lessons and Current Relevance (2025): Crisis Direct Use of Reserves Impact on Banks Government Action 1997 No Minimal MAS managed liquidity, raised rates 2008 Indirect (guarantees) Moderate Deposit guarantee liquidity support 2020 Yes (S$52B) Indirect aid Wage support, SME credit, loan moratoriums So, for 2025: If foreign agents were to short Singapore banks, the country can: Deploy reserves to stabilize the market (e.g., Temasek/GIC buying shares or supporting ETFs). MAS can backstop liquidity and guarantee deposits again. Public confidence, built over decades of prudent reserve management, will deter most attacks before they start.
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 09:14        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	April 2025 to may buy some OCBC UOB share and during 2025 October buy more DBs share If you were considering investing in SGX blue chips under a wartime scenario with a 30-year time horizon, you?d want to be cautious and strategic. During wartime, markets can be highly volatile, and the risks of holding equities for the long term could be higher. However, if you?re looking at the potential of SGX blue chips over the next three decades, there are some things to consider: 1. Focus on Resilient Companies Look for blue chips with strong balance sheets, low debt levels, and diverse revenue streams. Companies that have resilient business models?such as those in essential industries (e.g., utilities, healthcare, and basic consumer goods)?tend to fare better during crises. Financial institutions like OCBC, UOB, and DBS, which have strong capital buffers and significant exposure to Southeast Asia, could be solid picks. They typically have stable dividends, which could provide some income during turbulent times. Also consider companies in sectors that might be less affected by wartime disruptions, like telecommunications, infrastructure, and logistics. 2. Diversification In wartime, it?s especially important to diversify across sectors and countries (if you?re looking beyond Singapore?s borders). Singapore?s blue chips could serve as a relatively safe core for your portfolio, but consider adding exposure to other regions, especially those with stable governments or non-correlated economies. The REITs sector on SGX, which includes companies like CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) or Mapletree, could also provide a steady income stream, as real estate tends to be a relatively stable asset class in the long term. 3. Prepare for Currency Risks During wartime, currencies can experience high volatility. The Singapore dollar (SGD) could either strengthen or weaken depending on the global economic situation, and investing in SGX blue chips with international exposure (e.g., SATS, SGX, OCBC) could help hedge some of that risk. Keep an eye on the potential for currency devaluation or inflation and how that may affect your investments. 4. Long-Term Perspective and Patience A 30-year time horizon is an advantage, as it allows you to ride out short-term volatility and focus on long-term growth. However, wartime periods might require even more patience. Stock prices might fluctuate dramatically, and some companies might suffer setbacks before they recover. Dividends from blue chips, especially those with strong cash flow, can help smooth out periods of market turbulence, providing a return even if stock prices remain stagnant or volatile. 5. Emergency Liquidity Even if you?re holding SGX blue chips for the long term, maintaining a portion of your assets in cash (or highly liquid investments) could be crucial during wartime. Cash would allow you to react to market movements, seize opportunities, or deal with unforeseen expenses during crises. 6. Monitor Geopolitical and Economic Developments While you're holding SGX blue chips, it?s essential to stay aware of global developments. In a wartime scenario, markets can be heavily influenced by geopolitical events. For example, trade sanctions, disruptions to supply chains, or changes in government policy (domestic and foreign) can all impact the performance of your investments. Even with a long-term horizon, adjusting your holdings based on significant changes in the global landscape may help protect your wealth. In Summary: Resilient sectors: Focus on sectors with stable demand and companies with strong fundamentals. Diversification: Broaden exposure within SGX and consider international assets to reduce concentration risk. Monitor currency and geopolitical risks: Understand the broader financial environment to adjust your strategy accordingly. Liquidity: Maintain a portion of your assets in cash or short-term instruments to adapt to changing circumstances. Dividends: Invest in companies with strong dividend histories to maintain income during volatile times.
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 09:04        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	OCBC Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) have announced their upcoming dividends with ex-dividend dates in April 2025.​ OCBC Bank (SGX: O39): Ex-Dividend Date: April 25, 2025​ Futubull+1SG Investors+1 Record Date: April 28, 2025​ Futubull+3Futubull+3Moomoo+3 Payment Date: May 9, 2025​ SG Investors+1Futubull+1 Dividend Amount: SGD 0.57 per share​ Futubull+3SG Investors+3UOB+3 United Overseas Bank (SGX: U11): Ex-Dividend Date: April 28, 2025​ Futubull+4Moomoo+4Futubull+4 Record Date: April 29, 2025​ Payment Date: May 13, 2025​ Moomoo+2Futubull+2Futubull+2 Dividend Amount: SGD 0.92 per share​ UOB+4Moomoo+4Futubull+4 Special Dividend Amount: SGD 0.25 per share​ UOB+3Futubull+3Futubull+3 As of now, there are no publicly available announcements regarding dividends with ex-dividend dates after October 2025 for either OCBC Bank or UOB. Typically, Singapore banks declare dividends semi-annually, with ex-dividend dates around April and August. Therefore, it's reasonable to anticipate that the next dividends after April 2025 will have ex-dividend dates in August 2025. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, it's advisable to monitor the official investor relations websites of OCBC Bank and UOB.​ Futubull
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chartistkaohz Master	17-Apr-2025 04:56        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	the Singapore dollar (SGD) could strengthen against the USD, potentially pushing below 1.30. Here's the logic for that scenario: --- 1. Global Risk Aversion & US Isolation Trump-style tariffs could lead to renewed trade wars, which: Hurt global supply chains. Slow global growth. Increase uncertainty and volatility. But rather than fleeing to the USD (as they did in past crises), investors might diversify away from USD if Trump weaponizes the dollar system (sanctions, SWIFT bans, etc.) or runs an aggressively nationalist economic policy. --- 2. Wider US Fiscal Deficits and Lower Confidence Tariffs are a tax on imports ? they increase domestic inflation. Trump?s other policies (tax cuts, infrastructure) could blow up the US budget deficit. If global investors lose confidence in US fiscal discipline and political stability, it may: Hurt demand for US Treasuries. Weaken the USD, especially against countries with stronger balance sheets like Singapore. --- 3. MAS?s Proactive Currency Management Singapore?s Monetary Authority (MAS) manages monetary policy via the exchange rate, not interest rates. In an inflationary, protectionist world, MAS may allow SGD appreciation to: Combat imported inflation. Keep real purchasing power stable. --- 4. Trade Diversion Benefits to Singapore If US-China tensions escalate again, some regional trade may divert to Southeast Asia. Singapore, as a safe, neutral, and wealthy hub, could attract inflows from: Investors escaping geopolitical risk. Corporates reallocating supply chains. Wealth from China/HK/UAE looking for safe parking. This supports SGD demand. --- 5. USD Overvaluation Reversal The USD has been structurally strong for years, helped by: High interest rates. Global demand for USD liquidity. If US rates fall due to economic weakness while Singapore maintains a strong trade surplus and solid capital inflows, USD/SGD could fall below 1.30, especially if there's a broad USD downcycle. --- Counterpoints (Why SGD might not strengthen): If Trump tariffs cause global slowdown, MAS might weaken SGD to protect exports. US rates could stay higher for longer under Trump, supporting the USD. Safe haven flows might still go to USD assets in times of chaos.
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chartistkaohz Master	16-Apr-2025 15:42        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes ? if Trump is pushing tariffs again, SG banks face over a week of profit-taking, and we?re in a global risk-off mood, that might actually be the perfect time to pick up oversold OCBC shares. Here's why: --- 1. OCBC isn?t a trade-sensitive stock Unlike exporters or manufacturers, OCBC?s core earnings come from net interest income, wealth management, and insurance ? not from goods crossing borders. Tariffs may hit China sentiment, but OCBC benefits from deposit stickiness and diversified ASEAN footprint, especially Singapore and Malaysia. --- 2. Strong fundamentals = temporary dislocation Price-to-book still below 1x? That?s your signal OCBC is cheap on asset value. Yield above 5%? You're getting paid to wait. If the drop is purely macro-driven and not tied to worsening loan quality or earnings, then it's likely oversold. --- 3. OCBC thrives after chaos settles Historically, OCBC bounces back quickly after global macro sell-offs (COVID, 2018 trade war, etc.). Tariffs may cause short-term volatility, but higher inflation and rate uncertainty could keep net interest margins elevated. --- 4. Bargain hunting by smart money Watch for signs like: Helen Wong buying more shares, Net institutional inflows into OCBC or iEdge Singapore Financials Index, Spike in volume near technical support levels. If you?re seeing heavy volume with OCBC not breaking below key supports (e.g., $12.50?$13.00), it might signal strong hands are accumulating. --- 5. Long-term thesis remains intact OCBC is flush with cash, conservatively run, and gaining traction in China via Wing Hang and ASEAN expansion. Once tariffs fade from headlines or Trump softens stance post-negotiation, OCBC's China-ASEAN link becomes a strength again. --- So yes ? if the market is panicking and OCBC is oversold on noise, it?s time to buy what others are dumping. Let fear create your margin of safety.
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chartistkaohz Master	14-Apr-2025 16:10        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The trump tariff trade and the American people https://youtu.be/2nXGPZaTKik?si=ub-lYypMmTb7gyVd chartistkaohz      ( Date: 14-Apr-2025 15:57) Posted: This strong sgd Vs usd https://youtu.be/IWIxA7M_-ZA?si=1WchleAiS2GwBnxx chartistkaohz      ( Date: 14-Apr-2025 15:48) Posted: https://youtu.be/OTJtq2DGGk8?si=JqEHaYWzWOQEdO3a Great question. Here's why capital inflows into Singapore naturally benefit high-quality, cash-rich banks like OCBC: --- 1. Banks Are the First Stop for Incoming Funds When money enters Singapore?whether through companies, institutions, or individuals?it usually lands first in the banking system. OCBC, being one of Singapore?s largest and most trusted banks, sees a direct boost in deposits, especially in foreign currency and SGD accounts. This inflow reduces funding costs and allows OCBC to expand lending or invest in higher-yielding assets. --- 2. OCBC Has a Strong Wealth Management Franchise Capital from UHNWIs and family offices often enters via private banking and wealth management arms. OCBC owns Bank of Singapore, one of Asia?s most respected private banks. As global investors seek safety, they bring their assets to trusted private banks like BoS, growing OCBC?s fee income and AUM (assets under management). --- 3. OCBC Is a Natural Beneficiary of SGD Strength With SGD inflows, corporates and investors look for safe SGD-based investments. OCBC offers a range of treasury, investment, and deposit products that attract inflows, supporting treasury income and interest margins. As rates stabilize or rise, OCBC benefits from wider spreads on deposits and loans, especially with its conservative balance sheet. --- 4. OCBC Is Cash-Rich and Capital-Efficient Investors prefer banks that can withstand shocks, and OCBC has one of the strongest CET1 capital ratios in Asia. It is also known for its prudent credit risk profile and steady dividend payouts, making it a magnet for income-focused capital seeking safety and yield. --- 5. OCBC Has Regional Diversification, Especially into China and ASEAN OCBC owns Wing Hang Bank (China/HK) and has strong footprints in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. As capital leaves unstable or depreciating currencies, investors may prefer to gain indirect exposure to these markets through a well-run Singapore bank like OCBC?mitigating local risks while capturing regional growth. --- In short, when capital seeks refuge in Singapore, OCBC doesn?t just hold the cash?it grows it, protects it, and multiplies it, which makes it a prime beneficiary of global inflows. Want to pair this with a chart showing OCBC?s rising deposits, fee income, or capital strength?
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chartistkaohz Master	14-Apr-2025 15:57        chartistkaohz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This strong sgd Vs usd https://youtu.be/IWIxA7M_-ZA?si=1WchleAiS2GwBnxx chartistkaohz      ( Date: 14-Apr-2025 15:48) Posted: https://youtu.be/OTJtq2DGGk8?si=JqEHaYWzWOQEdO3a Great question. Here's why capital inflows into Singapore naturally benefit high-quality, cash-rich banks like OCBC: --- 1. Banks Are the First Stop for Incoming Funds When money enters Singapore?whether through companies, institutions, or individuals?it usually lands first in the banking system. OCBC, being one of Singapore?s largest and most trusted banks, sees a direct boost in deposits, especially in foreign currency and SGD accounts. This inflow reduces funding costs and allows OCBC to expand lending or invest in higher-yielding assets. --- 2. OCBC Has a Strong Wealth Management Franchise Capital from UHNWIs and family offices often enters via private banking and wealth management arms. OCBC owns Bank of Singapore, one of Asia?s most respected private banks. As global investors seek safety, they bring their assets to trusted private banks like BoS, growing OCBC?s fee income and AUM (assets under management). --- 3. OCBC Is a Natural Beneficiary of SGD Strength With SGD inflows, corporates and investors look for safe SGD-based investments. OCBC offers a range of treasury, investment, and deposit products that attract inflows, supporting treasury income and interest margins. As rates stabilize or rise, OCBC benefits from wider spreads on deposits and loans, especially with its conservative balance sheet. --- 4. OCBC Is Cash-Rich and Capital-Efficient Investors prefer banks that can withstand shocks, and OCBC has one of the strongest CET1 capital ratios in Asia. It is also known for its prudent credit risk profile and steady dividend payouts, making it a magnet for income-focused capital seeking safety and yield. --- 5. OCBC Has Regional Diversification, Especially into China and ASEAN OCBC owns Wing Hang Bank (China/HK) and has strong footprints in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. As capital leaves unstable or depreciating currencies, investors may prefer to gain indirect exposure to these markets through a well-run Singapore bank like OCBC?mitigating local risks while capturing regional growth. --- In short, when capital seeks refuge in Singapore, OCBC doesn?t just hold the cash?it grows it, protects it, and multiplies it, which makes it a prime beneficiary of global inflows. Want to pair this with a chart showing OCBC?s rising deposits, fee income, or capital strength? chartistkaohz      ( Date: 14-Apr-2025 15:33) Posted: That?s a solid thesis. Here's how you could explain why you buy OCBC in April 2025, tying in the tariff turmoil and Singapore?s role as a safe haven: --- Why I Buy OCBC in April 2025 In April 2025, global markets are once again rattled by tariff conflicts and escalating geopolitical uncertainty. As the USD strengthens, many emerging market currencies weaken, triggering capital flight and investor anxiety. But amid the chaos, Singapore stands out. The Singapore dollar (SGD) remains resilient, backed by a strong economy, vast reserves, and disciplined monetary policy. This makes Singapore one of the few havens in Asia where wealth can be parked safely?free from volatility, currency devaluation, and capital controls. As money flows into Singapore?from China, ASEAN, the Middle East, and even parts of Europe?a portion inevitably lands in high-quality, cash-rich local banks like OCBC. Why? --- OCBC Benefits Directly from the Safe-Haven Flows Stronger deposit inflows as foreign investors and corporates park money in SGD. Higher wealth management and treasury income, especially from clients seeking protection from currency losses. Wider net interest margins (NIM) due to strong USD linkage and higher USD-denominated lending margins. Exposure to North Asia (via Wing Hang in Hong Kong/China) allows OCBC to benefit if there?s a rebound in Chinese capital flows. Solid balance sheet with conservative lending, ample liquidity, and a history of prudent risk management. --- Buying OCBC in April 2025 Is My Way to: 1. Preserve capital in SGD during tariff-driven currency turmoil. 2. Gain yield in a rising dividend bank with low valuation. 3. Position for upside as wealth and trade flows reroute to Singapore. 4. Own a piece of Singapore?s financial safe haven infrastructure. --- If you like, I can help you write this as a short investor memo, or compare OCBC?s positioning versus DBS and UOB under the same macro backdrop.
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