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MrBear12
Supreme |
19-Mar-2025 10:14
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Asset Allocation | Tactical Switches to 2Q25 CIO Asset Allocation DBS CIO Office 3 minutes agoDetails DBS 19 March 2025 Asset Allocation | Tactical Switches to 2Q25 CIO Asset Allocation Navigating policy headwinds in Trump 2.0. We have advised investors to seek opportunities beyond S&P 500 amid policy uncertainties and early signs of moderation in the US macro momentum. On the flipside, just as ?US exceptionalism? is facing severe headwinds, Europe is showing strong signs of resurgence with Germany?s ?whatever it takes? moment signalling the rise of policy stimulus in Germany and other parts of Europe. Given the changing geopolitics and divergent valuations between the two markets, we are making the following tactical switches for our upcoming 2Q25 CIO asset allocation: 1) Downgrading US equities to 3-month Underweight while maintaining 12-month Overweight 2) Upgrading Europe equities to 3-month Overweight while maintaining 12-month Underweight. US equities ? Near-term pain on policy uncertainties But positive view on US technology stays intact. The initial enthusiasm surrounding fiscal easing in Trump 2.0 faded fast as the S&P 500 gave up all its post Presidential election gains. For the upcoming quarter, we advise investors to look beyond US equities given the revival of growth and policy headwinds. The escalation of trade tensions will weigh on consumer confidence and drive domestic consumption lower. The same can be said for business confidence and corporate capex. As analysts start to revise their earnings forecasts down in the coming months, it will be difficult for S&P 500 to sustain its valuation premium relative to other developed markets. On a forward P/E basis, the US trades at c.46% premium to developed markets (excluding US). However, despite our 3-month downgrade, we maintain a constructive view on US technology given their long-term secular tailwinds. Figure 1: Europe seeing stronger macro momentum than US Source: Bloomberg, DBS For more investment insights, please visit the DBS Treasures website and select the ?Market Insights? tab at the top navigation bar. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
17-Mar-2025 13:58
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Money owl has good articles.on money. High cost of living? Our financial future is still in our hands. 💰 Daphne from MoneyOwl OwlHoots: Expert money insights for building a financially secure future Budget 2025 has just passed, and it?s clear that there is one thing that is still weighing on the minds of Singaporeans ? the high costs of living. cost of living 2 Cost of living concerns go 'far beyond' GST raising the tax not an easy choice: PM Wong While the payouts announced in Budget 2025 provide temporary relief, building long-term financial stability requires proactive and intentional measures. For this, understanding our Personal Money Equation is key in helping us to move forward with confidence: pme1 We can improve our financial well-being by focusing on the "left side" of the Personal Money Equation. 1. Managing our Expenses The rising prices may be discouraging, but understanding our spending habits and knowing exactly where our money goes can give us clarity and empower us to make changes that we did not realise are options. For example - based on a YouGov survey in 2024, more than half of all consumers have at least one subscription that they haven?t used in the past six months. Also, while new services like BNPL can help us afford large purchases and manage our cash flow when used wisely, they may also skew our perception of how much we are really spending. This is because splitting up our spending into instalments may feel like we?re spending less, but it can quickly add up and lead to a debt trap if not managed carefully. Small adjustments, like switching to more affordable meal options or reducing impulse purchases, can make a big difference over time. Tools like BudgetMealGoWhere can help us find meals under $3, while buying in bulk maximises savings. MoneyOwl also has a budgeting rubric and tool to help you to keep spending in check. 2. Keeping Loan Payments under Control Reducing debt is key, as paying high interest rates prevents us from saving for the future or spending on purposeful living. Start by paying off high-interest debts such as credit card debt. Read our guide on how you can better manage your debts here. However, mortgage debt is generally considered ?good debt? as it charges a lower interest rate and has a clear purpose of helping us own a home, which is an asset. So, if you are paying off an HDB loan at 2.6% p.a. interest, consider investing the excess cash, rather than rushing to pay off the loan early for better returns and flexibility. 3. Growing our Income b2025 skills investment Commentary: Budget 2025 shifts the focus from short-term wage support to long-term skills investment Your Most Important Financial Asset is you ? your ability to generate income. This first item on the ?left side? of the equation may seem hard to increase in the short term. But to stay ahead in your career and generate more income, it?s essential to continuously upskill and keep up with industry trends, to ensure that you remain a valuable asset to the company. For the longer term, the recent Budget 2025 continued to provide support for lifelong learning and upskilling. New schemes include a new $300 monthly training allowance for selected part-time courses under the SkillsFuture Level-Up Programme. These complement programmes such as the Career Conversion Programmes, which help mid-career individuals switch to better job sectors with training and government support. And while upskilling or changing your job may be uncomfortable and feel like a career pause, it?s a vital and necessary step to improve your financial situation and future. You can increase your income, improve your employability and advance your career at a much faster rate. 4. Optimising our Insurance Coverage As you review your spending, do you find that you are spending a significant amount of your pay on insurance? Insurance is essentially for protection and should be used to transfer away major life risks that lead to loss of income (your Most Important Financial Asset on the ?left side? of the Personal Money Equation) and large healthcare costs. It is an expense, also part of this ?left side?, and we should aim to spend as little as possible while getting as much coverage as we need. MAS? Basic Financial Planning Guide recommends us to spend not more than 15% of our income on insurance protection. MoneyOwl recommends using cost-effective term insurance for these situations, and we avoid using insurance for both protection and saving/investing due to insufficient returns and coverage, as well as high costs. Take the time to review your insurance plans and consult a financial adviser to avoid overpaying while still meeting protection needs. You can also refer to MoneyOwl?s OwlInsure to get a gauge on how much insurance coverage is ideal for you based on your life stage. On the ?right side? of the Personal Money Equation, we focus on investing for the long term. Investing helps secure our financial future without sacrificing our present. Focus on building wealth through: ✅ Prioritising sufficient and reliable returns over chasing the highest gains ✅ Staying globally diversified across different markets ✅ Avoiding market timing - it's about time in the market, not timing the market ✅ Keeping investment costs low - every dollar saved on fees is a dollar that stays invested and compounds over time If you?re not sure where to start, explore OwlInvest, where we have curated investment solutions that are passive, globally diversified and low-cost. With the right approach, we can let our money work harder, while we focus on living life. Are you overpaying for your health insurance? We unpack this and more in our upcoming webinar: Eventbrite Insurance Webinar Smarter Healthcare Spending How to Get the Best Coverage for Less (6) Join MoneyOwl?s Master Financial Literacy Trainer, Felicia Yeo, CFP®, on 27 March, Thursday at 7.30 pm for an informative session on navigating health insurance options in Singapore. This session will provide practical insights to help you make informed decisions about your healthcare coverage. Key Takeaways: Understanding Singapore?s Healthcare System: Learn about the differences between public and private healthcare options, what?s covered under MediShield Life, and when to consider Integrated Shield Plans. Smart Insurance Strategies to Lower Costs: Discover how to choose the right plan for your needs and budget, explore government schemes like CHAS, Healthier SG, and Screen for Life, and understand deductibles, co-payments, and riders to avoid extra expenses. Preventive Healthcare Hacks: Get tips on accessing free and subsidised health screenings and learn lifestyle changes that can reduce long-term medical costs. This session will empower you to make better choices for your health and finances. Don?t miss out, and register today! | |||||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
15-Mar-2025 15:36
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Make Europe Great Again The pivot away from crowded trades. Trump&rsquo s &ldquo transactional&rdquo style of policy making and his undermining of the NATO alliance has clearly galvanised European leaders and created a European unity not seen in decades. Germany&rsquo s &ldquo Whatever It Takes&rdquo moment on the easing of fiscal conservatism is, perhaps, a telling moment that Europe-at-large is entering stimulus mode just when the US is engulfing itself with policy uncertainties. The implications for these shifts on portfolio construction are significant and our recommendations are: Equities Stay Neutral on equities while pivoting away from crowded trades in the US. The very notion of &ldquo de-risking&rdquo from US equities is now a reality under the &ldquo America First&rdquo policy agenda. Funds are switching out of US given (i) the market&rsquo s valuation premium to rest of the world and (ii) expectations of a darkening economical and geopolitical mood. Seek opportunities in Europe (eg defence, financials). Germany&rsquo s " Whatever It Takes" moment in particular, translates to the end of fiscal conservatism and unleashes strong economic stimulus. According to Kiel Institute, GDP growth could increase by 0.9-1.5% per year if nations (i) increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP (vs NATO' s target of 2%) and (ii) purchase weapons manufactured domestically in Europe. Seek opportunities in China (eg technology). Investors are warming up to Chinese equities as DeepSeek&rsquo s technological breakthrough spurs a reconsideration of the market&rsquo s attractiveness (trading at steep valuation discount to the rest of the world). In the US, seek defensive exposure to healthcare while staying engaged on technology. Capitalise on volatility to add to core positions via structured products. Source DBS CIO 11 Mar
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MrBear12
Supreme |
15-Mar-2025 14:57
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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US: Policy uncertainty spikes Relentless back and forth on trade, national security, and government operations have raised consumer and business anxiety in the US. Additionally, policy uncertainty has risen substantially. An index of policy uncertainty, calculated by tallying relevant keywords appearing daily on US media, shows the index reading at its second highest in 40 years, the only exception being the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic. During this century, spikes in the index have coincided with recessions which is worrisome. You can read the rest from from CIO DBS weekly. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
03-Mar-2025 20:54
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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The 7 stocks recommended have been doing well | |||||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
13-Aug-2024 08:03
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Kickstart Your Investment Journey: Here Are 7 Singapore-Listed Companies for New Investors to Consider (yahoo.com) | |||||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
07-Aug-2024 03:45
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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It is quite amazing that many analysts have not factored in the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brace for a widening war. More unrest and uncertainty coming. I' d advise a very cautious approach to investing. Cash is king, especially when there is economic uncertainty. We all need cash to eat. Unless we live on a farm. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
06-Aug-2024 22:31
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Standard Chartered views Staying diversified across stocks and bonds amid negative correlation. The correlation between stocks and bonds, especially in US markets, is again turning negative as government bond yields plunged amid rising US economic growth concerns. This implies that gains in government and investment grade corporate bonds are helping to partly offset declines in equities within a diversified portfolio. This supports our broadly diversified asset allocation stance in our foundation portfolio, with a slight tilt towards US equities. Bond yield curve likely to steepen further. The US 2-year bond yield has fallen faster than the 10-year yield over the past week, turning the 10-year vs 2-year bond yield premium close to positive again. This benefitted our call for a steeper yield curve. This move suggests markets are pricing sharper Fed rate cuts in the coming months (reflected in the 2-year yield) amid a worsening outlook for long term growth (signalled by the 10-year yield). While the window for the Fed to achieve an economic soft-landing is narrow, rate cuts in the mid-1990s steered by the then Fed Chair Alan Greenspan helped avoid a recession. Nevertheless, we need to watch the 10-year bond yield closely - a sustained break of the 10-year yield below last December&rsquo s low of c. 3.8%, coinciding with further decline in stocks, would signal heightened risks of a US recession. This would drive sharper Fed rate cuts, steepening the yield curve further. Fed comments, high-frequency job market data likely to be the most important drivers of markets in the coming weeks. The Fed funds rate, at 5.5%, is at a 23-year high, affording the Fed significant latitude to ease policy to prevent a sharp deterioration in the US economy and job markets. Money markets are already pricing 50bps of rate cuts by the next scheduled Fed meeting on 18 September, with rising probability of an earlier rate cut if high-frequency job market data deteriorates. US weekly jobless claims are rising. Several Fed policymakers are due to speak in the coming days. Indications of sharper Fed rate cuts should support risk sentiment. Our longer-term quantitative models remain modestly bullish equities earnings estimates remain robust. Our technical model, however, highlights near-term risks, particularly in US equities. It has turned bearish on US equities for the first time in two years as momentum and volatility indicators worsened. The Nasdaq and S& P500 indices have immediate technical supports around their 200DMAs (1-3% below Monday&rsquo s close). Also, US Q2 earnings and revenue have beaten estimates. LSEG I/B/E/S consensus estimates S& P500 index earnings to rise 6.8% y/y and 13.9% y/y in Q3 and Q4, although those estimates have been lowered in recent weeks. Our technical model remains bearish on Japan and China stocks. FX carry trade unwind likely near final stretch. The two haven currencies &ndash JPY and CHF &ndash benefitted the most after the weak US jobs data and the Bank of Japan&rsquo s surprisingly hawkish stance. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are not far from testing their December 2023 lows of close to 140 and 0.83, respectively. We closed both our short USD/CHF and USD/JPY trades this week. Aided by JPY&rsquo s strength, USD/CNH has fallen more than 2% since mid-July. Currency strength could create room for the PBoC to ease policy further in the coming months, especially if the Fed starts cutting rates. Corrective USD rebound likely. While market bottoms are hard to time, especially during rapid moves, the broad USD index (DXY) remains well within its 100-107 range since late 2022. It will likely take a deep US recession, warranting deeper Fed rate cuts, for the USD index to fall below 100. As such, there is rising chance of a near-term corrective rebound in the USD. Currency volatility has risen out of recent ranges &ndash another indicator to watch closely in the coming days |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 16:30
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 13:13
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Moneysmart seems to give the best promo for Webull Best Webull Online Investment Brokerages in Singapore 2024 (moneysmart.sg)
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 12:58
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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A comparison between brokers. Webull Singapore Review (2024): The Investing Platform To Recharge Your Wealth Journey? (singsaver.com.sg)
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MrBear12
Supreme |
16-Jun-2024 12:41
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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I am looking for a good broker. Webull seems to offer some good deals. Webull Singapore (singsaver.com.sg) |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
14-Jun-2024 18:16
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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End of day portfolio value SGD 816,709 Start of day portfolio value SGD 823.437 Percentage change -0.82 Compare with STI 3,324 to 3,297 points (-0.81%) Tracks STI with about 1% variance
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MrBear12
Supreme |
14-Jun-2024 07:32
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Testing out a model portfolio with the following stocks Stock (Qty.) DBS (5,293) OCBC (6,346) ST Eng (15,000) City Dev (4,800) Seatrium (11,451) Keppel Ltd (12,000) Singtel (28,000) JMH (160) SGX (1,000) CICT (12,000) Suntec Reits (17,000) K-Reit (5,324) Paragon Reit (3,564) Aims Amp Reit (21,000) CDL H Trust (763) First Reits (64,000) SBS Transit (8,400) Keppel Infrastructure Trust (54,191) Hong Leong Finance (2,000) Global Investment Ltd (383,871) Straco Corp (56,200) MoneyMax Financial (2,500) STI ETF (15,660) City Dev NCPS 3.9% (400) Current Market Value = SGD 823,437 |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
14-Jun-2024 06:48
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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Economists keep 2.4% forecast for Singapore&rsquo s growth, but expect less from manufacturing, survey finds (businesstimes.com.sg) | |||||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
12-Jun-2024 20:31
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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US May Consumer Prices Rise 3.3% Y/Y Est. 3.4%
Ranjeetha Pakiam |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
12-Jun-2024 13:19
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the United States (US) for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The US Dollar braces for intense volatility, as any surprises from the US inflation report could significantly impact the market&rsquo s pricing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations in September. |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
11-Jun-2024 08:31
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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MrBear12
Supreme |
10-Jun-2024 04:52
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.? ? Charlie Munger | |||||||||
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MrBear12
Supreme |
04-Jun-2024 03:00
Yells: "A retired bear will still always be a bear" |
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theregister.com/AMP/2024/06/03/nyse_technical_error/
Today's trading volatility caused by error.
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