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Luzern
Supreme
21-Mar-2023 11:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The Market is setting itself up for a huge disappointment in Jun/Jul 2023.

Luzern      ( Date: 16-Mar-2023 09:32) Posted:

08-Dec-2021 11:22 Trading Techniques      /      The Trading Floor              Go to Message
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  x 0		 I expect.....into 2023 and bottoming around end 2023 or 1st half 2024.
 
bystander1965           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 11:16) Posted:
 
Those are excuses. It' s been known for so long.
Anyway, I have a feeling that this time when the unwinds happen it may take a lot longer.
 
 
Luzern           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 11:10) Posted:
 
This time......it has bites........an official timeline for .tappering and 1st  interest rate hike
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08-Dec-2021 11:10 Trading Techniques      /      The Trading Floor              Go to Message
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  x 0		 This time......it has bites........an official timeline for .tappering and 1st  interest rate hike.
 
bystander1965           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 11:05) Posted:
 
Going by probabilities it is increasing to look that way. But remember since last year people have been making that predictions.
But I always like to look back at 2000 dot com period. It feels very similar, and barring a catastrophe trigger, it might just do like back then. Up and down, up and down (lower high lower low) for a couple of years.
Both are driven by technolgy booms.
We shall see ...
 
 
Luzern           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 10:57) Posted:
 
IMO, Dow has seen its Top at 36xxx and it is currently in correction, fueled primarily by tappering, inflation and coming interest rate hike.    Time to ask ownself, have the " Cheese been Moved" .laugh
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Luzern
Supreme
20-Mar-2023 13:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		IMO, 

If 11 big banks cannot save First Republic, then................. we are going to have a confident and credit crisis.


....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
S& P cuts First Republic deeper into junk, says $30 billion infusion may not solve problems (cnbc.com)

First Republic Bank  saw its credit ratings downgraded deeper into junk status by S& P Global, which said the lender&rsquo s recent $30 billion deposit infusion from 11 big banks may not solve its liquidity problems.


 
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Luzern
Supreme
20-Mar-2023 12:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		IMO,

US seems to be preparing to use these excuses to try to weaken or slow down China' s rise internally and externally.



....................................................................................................................................................
United States confirms use of Chinese ammunition in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

Covid origins: WHO urges China to release data on raccoon dogs at Wuhan Market (cnbc.com)

Putin to welcome Xi to Moscow under shadow of Ukraine war | Reuters



 
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Luzern
Supreme
20-Mar-2023 09:33     
 
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UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion as regulators look to shore up the global banking system (cnbc.com)
KEY POINTS
  • UBS agreed to buy its embattled rival Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.2 billion) Sunday.
  • The terms of the deal will see Credit Suisse shareholders receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares they hold.
  • The Swiss National Bank also pledged a loan of up to 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) to support the takeover.

FDIC announces agreement to sell Signature Bank assets (cnbc.com)


Dow closed -384.57 last Friday (17/03/2023)

 
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sadhu123
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17-Mar-2023 19:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Can' t u feel the market vibe...
whole us market maker is bonding in to gel...
whatever break or leak, 24 hr settle...
Unless Asia or Europe break first then Maybe got Show...
Now is buy buy buy...

At least till next Wednesday Fed Rate News...
Tonight , Monday small rally again...
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Luzern
Supreme
17-Mar-2023 17:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Triple Witching

......................................................................................
 

US$2.7 trillion wall of expiring options a worry for traders reeling from bank crisis


US$2.7 trillion wall of expiring options a worry for traders reeling from bank crisis, International - THE BUSINESS TIMES
 
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Luzern
Supreme
16-Mar-2023 17:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		BAC sitting on about US$114 billions of paper losses.
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zillion
Master
16-Mar-2023 15:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Here macam only 1 man talking all the time. Not only banks have to htm in their books for long bonds
All central banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, countries,etc hv long bonds holdings meant for collection of dividends via semi-annual coupons.
Nothing wrong with them. SVB blew up partly it is ' not' a bank just name sake as they are specific to vc funds, tech industry and
no one can anticipate vc wants their $$$ back short term. Loss of $1B in usa is small. Small, regional banks will be eaten
up by big banks in order to be well capitlised.
 
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Luzern
Supreme
16-Mar-2023 13:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		IMO, 

The Global Financial System is in more danger than most people think.


..................................................................................................................................

Banks And Their Shocking Paper Losses On Debt Securities Holdings | Seeking Alpha
 

The types of securities held by banks vary significantly. Some hold mostly U.S. treasuries and others have mostly mortgages or MBS. The length of maturities also varies between banks. Many banks hedge their debt securities, but because of the complexities of the hedges for specific banks I have not included the hedge data. Investors should, however, look into the hedges. The hedges could help offset the paper losses on the securities, but many hedges are not very liquid. SVB had significant hedge positions, but it still went under. One of the primary reasons for looking at the paper losses on securities is that in the event the bank needs to raise cash quickly these hedges may not help immediately to offset any losses by selling the securities.

Citigroup (C) loss per share ($16.02) 33% of stock price

AFS  $256,608 million cost - $249,679 million fair value = $5,929 million loss

HTM  $268,863 million cost - $243,648 million fair value = $25,215 million loss

*Total loss $31,144 million

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) loss per share ($16.00) 12% of stock price

AFS  $216,217 million cost - $205,857 million fair value = $10,360 million loss

HTM  $425,372 million cost - $388,648 million fair value = $36,724 million loss

*Total loss $47,084 million

Signature Bank (SBNY) loss per share $51.44 73% of stock price

AFS  $21,071 million cost - $18,594 million fair value = $2,477 million loss

HTM  $7,780 million cost - $7,018 million fair value = $762 million loss

*Total loss $3,239 million

U.S. Bancorp (USB) loss per share $12.68 31% of stock price

AFS  $81,450 million cost - $72,910 million fair value = $8,540 million loss

HTM  $88,740 million cost - $77,874 million fair value = $10,866 million loss

*Total loss $19,406 million

First Republic Bank (FRC) loss per share $28.15 34% of stock price

AFS  $3,817 million cost - $3,347 million fair value = $470 million loss

HTM  $28,359 million cost - $23,587 million fair value = $4,772 million loss

*Total loss $5,242 million

(Special note: $27,403 million of the HTM securities mature after 10 years. Longer the maturity, the more sensitive is the bond price to changes in interest rates. In addition, $16,808 million of that number are tax-exempt municipal bonds that mature after 10 years. Munis are also often much less liquid than UST securities.)

Wells Fargo (WFC) loss per share $13.09 32% of stock price

AFS  $121,725 million cost - $113,594 million fair value = $8,131 million loss

HTM  $297,059 million cost - $255,521 million fair value = $41,538 million loss

*Total loss $49,669 million

Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) loss per share $9.61 19% of stock price

AFS  $7,973 million cost - $7,092 million fair value = $881 million loss

HTM  $1,284 million cost - $1,112 million fair value =$172 million loss

*Total loss $1,053 million

Bank of America (BAC) loss per share $14.28 47% of stock price

AFS  $225,485 million cost - $220,788 million fair value = $5,697 million loss

HTM  $632,863 million cost - $524,267 million fair value = $108,596 million loss

*Total Loss $114,293 million

PacWest Bancorp (PACW) loss per share $8.25 67% of stock price

AFS  $5,655 million cost - $4,843 million fair value = $812 million loss

HTM  $2,271 million cost - $2,110 million fair value = $161 million loss

*Total loss $973 million
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Luzern
Supreme
16-Mar-2023 13:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		These Banks failures or banks getting into trouble are punching holes in the Global Financial Web.
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Luzern
Supreme
16-Mar-2023 09:32     
 
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 Alert Admin
08-Dec-2021 11:22 Trading Techniques      /      The Trading Floor              Go to Message
  x 0
  x 0		 I expect.....into 2023 and bottoming around end 2023 or 1st half 2024.
 
bystander1965           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 11:16) Posted:
 
Those are excuses. It' s been known for so long.
Anyway, I have a feeling that this time when the unwinds happen it may take a lot longer.
 
 
Luzern           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 11:10) Posted:
 
This time......it has bites........an official timeline for .tappering and 1st  interest rate hike
Rate This Post:       Useful to me        Not useful to me   
08-Dec-2021 11:10 Trading Techniques      /      The Trading Floor              Go to Message
  x 0
  x 0		 This time......it has bites........an official timeline for .tappering and 1st  interest rate hike.
 
bystander1965           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 11:05) Posted:
 
Going by probabilities it is increasing to look that way. But remember since last year people have been making that predictions.
But I always like to look back at 2000 dot com period. It feels very similar, and barring a catastrophe trigger, it might just do like back then. Up and down, up and down (lower high lower low) for a couple of years.
Both are driven by technolgy booms.
We shall see ...
 
 
Luzern           ( Date: 08-Dec-2021 10:57) Posted:
 
IMO, Dow has seen its Top at 36xxx and it is currently in correction, fueled primarily by tappering, inflation and coming interest rate hike.    Time to ask ownself, have the " Cheese been Moved" .laugh
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Luzern
Supreme
15-Mar-2023 09:27     
 
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Moody&rsquo s cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing &lsquo rapidly deteriorating operating environment&rsquo

PUBLISHED TUE, MAR 14 202310:41 AM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO
Moody' s cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing ' rapidly deteriorating operating environment' (cnbc.com)

 
  • Moody&rsquo s Investors Service cut its view on the entire banking system to negative from stable.
  • The big three rating firm cited a &rdquo &lsquo rapidly deteriorating operating environment&rdquo despite regulators&rsquo efforts to shore up the industry.

.....................................................................................................................................................

IMO, 

A potential credit crisis is developing.  Where it will be harder to get loans.  Government will provide more source of Funding for Banks and Financial Institutions, but the Banks and FI will be more prudent and unwilling to loan out.

 







 
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Luzern
Supreme
14-Mar-2023 09:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		IMO, 

Fed is still going to hike rate next week, either 25 or 50 basis point,  prior to the banks collapsed, 50 basis is the likely hike, now it seems that Fed might just hike 25 points, just to be prudent in not stressing the banks further.

But.... if we look at the responsibilities of the Fed and consider the question.......has significant jobs been lost?......has inflation comes down?  Is saving the banks the job of Fed?  Are steps being taken by Yellen and FDIC?

Now if Fed decides to disregard the economic numbers and not hike rate or only hike rate by 25 points, what kind of signal is the Fed sending out? How would the market react, how will the companies react and how will the consumer react?  How will thsi affect inflation and employment?

History is potentially going to reapeat here.

Luzern      ( Date: 07-Mar-2023 09:19) Posted:

The Fed, has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. In pursuit of these goals, the Fed has several tools at its disposal to address high inflation. Here are some of the ways the Fed may approach high inflation now:
 
  1. Monetary policy: The Fed can use monetary policy to control inflation by adjusting short-term interest rates. In response to high inflation, the Fed may increase interest rates to reduce the growth of money supply and dampen demand for goods and services. This could help to slow down price increases and bring inflation under control.
  2. Communication: The Fed can use its public statements and press conferences to communicate its intentions and influence expectations of inflation. By clearly communicating its commitment to price stability, the Fed may be able to anchor inflation expectations and prevent them from becoming unmoored.
  3. Tools beyond interest rates: The Fed has other tools beyond interest rates that it can use to influence the economy, such as open market operations, forward guidance, and quantitative easing. These tools could be used to address high inflation if interest rates alone are not effective.
  4. Fiscal policy coordination: The Fed may coordinate with fiscal policymakers to address high inflation. For example, fiscal policies that reduce demand and lower inflationary pressures, such as tax increases or spending cuts, could be used in conjunction with the Fed' s monetary policies.
  5. International coordination: The Fed may work with other central banks around the world to coordinate their monetary policies and stabilize exchange rates. This could help to reduce inflationary pressures and promote price stability in the global economy.
  6.  

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Luzern
Supreme
13-Mar-2023 09:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wall Street &mdash not taxpayers &mdash will pay for the SVB and Signature deposit relief plans (cnbc.com)

Wall Street &mdash not taxpayers &mdash will pay for the SVB and Signature deposit relief plans

PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 12 20238:59 PM EDT
KEY POINTS
  • The money to fully reimburse depositors of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank and the shuttered Signature Bank will be furnished by other banks, not taxpayers, Treasury officials said.
  • The Deposit Insurance Fund, which will cover the deposits, is funded with quarterly fees assessed on financial institutions and interest on government bonds.
  • Using the DIF to shore up depositors is seen by the Biden administration as a way to avoid reigniting the public anger sparked by the 2008 taxpayer-funded Wall Street bailouts.



The DIF currently has over $100 billion in it, a sum the Treasury official said was & ldquo more than fully sufficient& rdquo to cover SVB and Signature depositors.

.............................................................................................................................................................................

IMO, 

SVB bank deposits is about ~US$170 - US$190billions

Signature Bank Deposit is about ~US$80 - US$90 billions

So how is FDIC' s US$100 billion sufficient? ....If I were a depositor of either banks, I will withdraw all my deposits at the nexty available opportunity. 

 
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Luzern
Supreme
13-Mar-2023 09:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Need to re-asses the investment for SReits with US exposure, especially in the Tech and Data sectors.
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Luzern
Supreme
13-Mar-2023 09:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		New York regulators close Signature Bank, second US bank failure in days after SVB collapse - CNA (channelnewsasia.com)
 
Signature Bank reported deposit balances totalling US$89.17 billion as of Mar 8. As of Dec 31, it had about US$110.36 billion in assets, according to New York state' s Department of Financial Services.
 
Banks including JPMorgan, Charles Schwab, see $52bn rout on SVB&rsquo s deposit losses - Financial News (fnlondon.com)
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in February reported that US banks&rsquo unrealised losses on available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities totalled $620bn as of 31 December, up from $8bn a year earlier before the Fed&rsquo s rate push began.
 
SVB, based in California, caters to tech, venture-capital and private-equity firms and grew rapidly along with those industries. Total deposits rose 86% in 2021 to $189bn and peaked at $198bn a quarter later.
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Luzern
Supreme
13-Mar-2023 09:20     
 
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U.S. government steps in and says people with funds deposited at SVB will be able to access their money

PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 12 20236:16 PM EDTUPDATED 26 MIN AGO
Silicon Valley Bank depositors protected by U.S. government (cnbc.com)
 
KEY POINTS
  • Regulators approved plans Sunday to backstop both depositors and financial institutions associated with Silicon Valley Bank.
  • Officials will unwind both SVB and Signature Bank, ensuring that depositors will have full access to their funds on Monday.
  • The Federal Reserve stepped in with a separate facility that will provide loans up to one year for institutions affected by the bank failures.
  • &ldquo Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,&rdquo leading regulators said in a joint statement.

 




 
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Luzern
Supreme
12-Mar-2023 15:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		US 16th largest bank SVB collapsed...........contagion is a very real possibility.
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Luzern
Supreme
10-Mar-2023 13:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		5.75% - 6.25%
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Luzern
Supreme
10-Mar-2023 11:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		IMO,
Dow heading to a new low.................25xxx to 26xxx.....within 10 months
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