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Singapore Bonds
MarcPh
Senior
12-Aug-2017 10:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Market whispered that Ezion has forced to enter debt-restructuring when a single no-ball bank threatened to withdraw facilities and demanded immediate payment.  Ezion is the bestest local O& G company we have around. If Noble can still survive, there is no reason that Ezion can' t meet her debt interests-repayment within the next 15 months. We just need a no-ball bank to start a crash on the creditibility of Ezion, Noble and likes.

Policymakers should stop hiding in their offices. Singapore should recognize that we are WORST bond market in the world in the past 12 months. No other country, including third-world country are sitting on such massive amount of doubtful corporate debts within such a short time-frame. Do they really think that the S$4bio (by my personal estimate) of defaulted and upcoming-doubtful bonds has no percussion to our economy? Singapore had refused to act on many occassions to shore up confidence and ignore the regulation of rouge bond issues (including the US$750mio Noble 2022 bonds) by investment banks.

MarcPh      ( Date: 11-Aug-2017 15:21) Posted:

The real figure will soon exceed $4bio, if you include Noble, Ezion and other pending-restructuring.
Eight times larger than Minibonds saga.

MarcPh      ( Date: 07-Aug-2017 08:02) Posted:

I read that massive fallouts on the local SGD bonds was appx $1.2bio. (Deceased, eg. Tekomsel, Swiber, Ezra) - Amendment
They are talking about defaulted ones but there is another huge chunk that are suspended (Nam Cheong), pending-defaults or restructuring. The figure exceeds $2bio if you consider these terminally-illed.
The figure exceeds $3.5bio if you throw in Noble.

In comparison, Lehmen' s Minibonds and Jubilee Notes saga was just S$500mio (number i plucked from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-singapore-investors-idUSTRE4A61O320081107)
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MarcPh
Senior
11-Aug-2017 15:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The real figure will soon exceed $4bio, if you include Noble, Ezion and other pending-restructuring.
Eight times larger than Minibonds saga.

MarcPh      ( Date: 07-Aug-2017 08:02) Posted:

I read that massive fallouts on the local SGD bonds was appx $1.2bio. (Deceased, eg. Tekomsel, Swiber, Ezra) - Amendment
They are talking about defaulted ones but there is another huge chunk that are suspended (Nam Cheong), pending-defaults or restructuring. The figure exceeds $2bio if you consider these terminally-illed.
The figure exceeds $3.5bio if you throw in Noble.

In comparison, Lehmen' s Minibonds and Jubilee Notes saga was just S$500mio (number i plucked from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-singapore-investors-idUSTRE4A61O320081107)
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MarcPh
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11-Aug-2017 15:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Ezion shocked the market and threw in the towel instead of trying their best to service their bond coupons (just $60mio bond due to mature in the next one year),
appointed RSM Singapore for debt restructuring yesterday. Rumour-leak caused selldown in DBS and OCBC this week.
  • S$120mio 3.65% Aug 2020 bonds continues to trade near par due to committed fundings by DBS.
  • S$150mio 7% perpetual bonds
 
  • S$150mio 4.875% Jul 2021
  • S$55mio 5.1% Mar 2020
  • S$110mio 4.7% May 2019
  • S$50mio 4.85% Jan 2019
  • S$60mio 4.6% Aug 2018
 
  • Other debts in excess of S$700mio
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MarcPh
Senior
10-Aug-2017 10:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		New Seductress from China... ...Huiyan Juice (Coca Cola tried to buy over this company about 9-10 years ago).
US$ 3Y Bonds - coupon > 6%pa.
Higher coupon likely due to weak corporate governance scandals. (insider trading, etc).

Although this is a loose woman, but she is still very sexy.
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MarcPh
Senior
07-Aug-2017 10:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hihi,

The next debt maturity will be their $500mio 6% CPS eight months later. It is preference shares but I think they will redeem it (optional) as they are cash rich.

Hyflux is a company that is not profitable (because of Tuaspring) and cash rich (and going to be higher). This is why I hide in their debts. I may not be correct but their cashflow are going into surge in the less-profitable quarters ahead. Such irony right?
  • Cash about S$200mio
  • Assets held for sale S$1700mio (50% discount is still worth $850mio)


john_ric      ( Date: 07-Aug-2017 09:23) Posted:

now that hyflux will be making losses for the next few hours will its bonds in any danger of default??

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john_ric
Supreme
07-Aug-2017 09:23     
 
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 Alert Admin 		now that hyflux will be making losses for the next few hours will its bonds in any danger of default??
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MarcPh
Senior
07-Aug-2017 08:02     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I read that massive fallouts on the local SGD bonds was appx $1.2bio. (Deceased, eg. Tekomsel, Swiber, Ezra) - Amendment
They are talking about defaulted ones but there is another huge chunk that are suspended (Nam Cheong), pending-defaults or restructuring. The figure exceeds $2bio if you consider these terminally-illed.
The figure exceeds $3.5bio if you throw in Noble.

In comparison, Lehmen' s Minibonds and Jubilee Notes saga was just S$500mio (number i plucked from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-singapore-investors-idUSTRE4A61O320081107)
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MarcPh
Senior
07-Aug-2017 07:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I read that massive fallouts on the local SGD bonds was appx $1.2bio. (Deceased, eg. Tekomsel, Swiber, Noble)
They are talking about defaulted ones but there is another huge chunk that are suspended (Nam Cheong), pending-defaults or restructuring. The figure exceeds $2bio if you consider these terminally-illed.
The figure exceeds $3.5bio if you throw in Noble.

In comparison, Lehmen' s Minibonds and Jubilee Notes saga was just S$500mio (number i plucked from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-singapore-investors-idUSTRE4A61O320081107)


 
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MarcPh
Senior
07-Aug-2017 07:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Noble made an announcement on SGX this morning on Iceberg' s allegations including regulators-oversight on the listing of the fastest-crashing bonds in Singapore' s recent memories. The announcement had no content, claiming that Noble has sufficient updates and said all they have to say.
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announcement-%2007.08.17.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=465759

 

famouspinky      ( Date: 06-Aug-2017 14:25) Posted:

Tts why own actions is the most impt cos we cant change others.

MarcPh      ( Date: 06-Aug-2017 14:19) Posted:

As per my sharings three months ago, severe regulatory oversights and conflicts of interests in the Noble 8.75% issued in March. This is the worst performing bond in recent memory. Regulators refused to work and investors who wrote to the financed ministers were refered to a fresh grad Issac Lian who just said no-case, not in their purview. so sweet right? Noble' s massive shit is assigned to a young fresh grad. The managers have the best job in the world - simply no pride in their work. Everything is none of our regulator' s business. Then we feed those fat cats regulators for what?

More updates: http://www.gulf-times.com/story/559163/Noble-destined-to-fail-Iceberg
 
Iceberg also commented on the role of Singapore&rsquo s financial market regulators, saying that Singapore Exchange Ltd, which runs the stock exchange, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the country&rsquo s central bank, had failed to make adequate checks on Noble Group. SGX spokeswoman Maynah Chin said she couldn&rsquo t immediately comment.

&ldquo What is particularly shocking is that the SGX and the MAS have allowed Noble to raise more money,&rdquo Iceberg said, noting an equity raising last year that brought in $500mn and $750mn bonds sold this year.
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MarcPh
Senior
06-Aug-2017 14:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Majulah! Happy NDP!
really missed the old Singapore these days.

If old MM & PM Lee Kuan Yew & DPM and Finance Minister Goh Keng Swee are still around, they will jail shitty regulators for their oversights.

Seriously, if they are still around, you will not see bicycles littered all over Singapore. MM Lee Kuan Yew don' t even allow chewing gums to be littered all over Singapore!
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famouspinky
Supreme
06-Aug-2017 14:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Tts why own actions is the most impt cos we cant change others.

MarcPh      ( Date: 06-Aug-2017 14:19) Posted:

As per my sharings three months ago, severe regulatory oversights and conflicts of interests in the Noble 8.75% issued in March. This is the worst performing bond in recent memory. Regulators refused to work and investors who wrote to the financed ministers were refered to a fresh grad Issac Lian who just said no-case, not in their purview. so sweet right? Noble' s massive shit is assigned to a young fresh grad. The managers have the best job in the world - simply no pride in their work. Everything is none of our regulator' s business. Then we feed those fat cats regulators for what?

More updates: http://www.gulf-times.com/story/559163/Noble-destined-to-fail-Iceberg
 
Iceberg also commented on the role of Singapore&rsquo s financial market regulators, saying that Singapore Exchange Ltd, which runs the stock exchange, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the country&rsquo s central bank, had failed to make adequate checks on Noble Group. SGX spokeswoman Maynah Chin said she couldn&rsquo t immediately comment.

&ldquo What is particularly shocking is that the SGX and the MAS have allowed Noble to raise more money,&rdquo Iceberg said, noting an equity raising last year that brought in $500mn and $750mn bonds sold this year.


MarcPh      ( Date: 24-May-2017 08:04) Posted:

Blaming Game - peddlers of the Noble US$750mio 8.75% bonds launched two months ago were HSBC, ING Bank, Morgan Stanley and SocGen (Joint Lead Managers) and DBS, Rabo, ABN Amro (co-manager) of which HSBC, ING, Morgan Stanley, DBS, and Socié té Gé né rale are known to be Noble' s creditor banks. News emerged on WSJ about conflict of interests in the bond issue:

 
Noble Has One Option Left - WSJ
As recently as March, the company was able to raise $750 million of fresh bonds. Coincidentally? or not? it was as bankers were trying to sell those bonds that talk of China' s Sinochem investing in Noble first emerged. In another notable coincidence, much of the money raised from bondholders has gone toward paying down loans owed to some of the banks involved in the bond underwriting.
The underlying truth is that Noble now seems to exist merely to raise money from one set of lenders to pay off another.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/noble-has-one-option-left-1495537383

Recent  controversial failure in coal business sparks rumour of banking vultures seeking Noble' s Aussie coal assets:
  • Appx 13.2% in Yancoal Australia
  • Appx 10% in Aspire Mining
  • Appx 13.7% in Resource Generation
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MarcPh
Senior
06-Aug-2017 14:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		As per my sharings three months ago, severe regulatory oversights and conflicts of interests in the Noble 8.75% issued in March. This is the worst performing bond in recent memory. Regulators refused to work and investors who wrote to the financed ministers were refered to a fresh grad Issac Lian who just said no-case, not in their purview. so sweet right? Noble' s massive shit is assigned to a young fresh grad. The managers have the best job in the world - simply no pride in their work. Everything is none of our regulator' s business. Then we feed those fat cats regulators for what?

More updates: http://www.gulf-times.com/story/559163/Noble-destined-to-fail-Iceberg
 
Iceberg also commented on the role of Singapore&rsquo s financial market regulators, saying that Singapore Exchange Ltd, which runs the stock exchange, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the country&rsquo s central bank, had failed to make adequate checks on Noble Group. SGX spokeswoman Maynah Chin said she couldn&rsquo t immediately comment.

&ldquo What is particularly shocking is that the SGX and the MAS have allowed Noble to raise more money,&rdquo Iceberg said, noting an equity raising last year that brought in $500mn and $750mn bonds sold this year.


MarcPh      ( Date: 24-May-2017 08:04) Posted:

Blaming Game - peddlers of the Noble US$750mio 8.75% bonds launched two months ago were HSBC, ING Bank, Morgan Stanley and SocGen (Joint Lead Managers) and DBS, Rabo, ABN Amro (co-manager) of which HSBC, ING, Morgan Stanley, DBS, and Socié té Gé né rale are known to be Noble' s creditor banks. News emerged on WSJ about conflict of interests in the bond issue:

 
Noble Has One Option Left - WSJ
As recently as March, the company was able to raise $750 million of fresh bonds. Coincidentally? or not? it was as bankers were trying to sell those bonds that talk of China' s Sinochem investing in Noble first emerged. In another notable coincidence, much of the money raised from bondholders has gone toward paying down loans owed to some of the banks involved in the bond underwriting.
The underlying truth is that Noble now seems to exist merely to raise money from one set of lenders to pay off another.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/noble-has-one-option-left-1495537383

Recent  controversial failure in coal business sparks rumour of banking vultures seeking Noble' s Aussie coal assets:
  • Appx 13.2% in Yancoal Australia
  • Appx 10% in Aspire Mining
  • Appx 13.7% in Resource Generation
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MarcPh
Senior
06-Aug-2017 13:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hihi,

10 years ago, who ever can lay their hands on local SGD bank bonds (perpetuals and preference shares), can flip for quick money due to the 5-6% yields. DBS, OCBC, UOB were giving 5%, Maybank 6%. Unfortunately, these days, I advocate that we should avoid banks bonds because they yields are super-low and high-risk loss absorption feature due to the BASEL III regulatory. If you want local banks and reject the AT1 feature, you end up with ony 2%pa. So might as well, consider Mercatus (NTUC) bonds for 2.8%pa.

yes, UOB retail prefs did briefly trade below 98 level but that was due to the short spike in USD LIBOR after lehmen crisis.

So taking clue from all these, the best time to grab new local SGD bonds from banks, will be when SIBOR hits 2% or higher.

my 1.9 cents

pnuklis      ( Date: 01-Aug-2017 09:39) Posted:

if go bust then you loose all and get kosong. All these are unsecured bonds. If you want some confort settle for less riskier Singapore bank bonds like DBS, UOB or OCBC which are listed and you can getout if you wish but settle for lesser interest of below 5%.
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pnuklis
Master
01-Aug-2017 09:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		if go bust then you loose all and get kosong. All these are unsecured bonds. If you want some confort settle for less riskier Singapore bank bonds like DBS, UOB or OCBC which are listed and you can getout if you wish but settle for lesser interest of below 5%.
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MarcPh
Senior
01-Aug-2017 08:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Disclaimer:
Sorry, i missed out the word, pa (per annum) in my earlier post.

15%pa YTM for 15 weeks.
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MarcPh
Senior
01-Aug-2017 08:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SHORT-TERM BOND OPPORTUNITY!!! Arbitrage 15-Weeks SGD BOND

Issuer: Giti Tires Singapore
Issuer/Bond Rating: Unrated
Currency: SGD
Tenor: Maturity on 17 Nov 2017
Coupon: Indicative 6%, appx YTM 15%pa
Denomination: SGD250K
Current Price: Appx 97-98 (excluding accrued interests)
Listing/Clearing: SGX-ST/CDP

Summarized Remarks:
Giti Tire controls three main business:
  • A financially stronger SSE-listed plant in China
  • A financially weaker IDX-listed plant in Indonesia
  • A new plant in USA, planned 3 years ago to avoid trade tariffs. Completion is timely because of President Trump' s trade policies.

Last night, Giti Tire announced that their weaker Indonesian subsidiary will refinance their debts today:
http://www.globalcapital.com/article/b143409nzbc5h2/gajah-tunggal-rolls-out-new-dollar-deal

As a result, their subsidiary' s bond surged to historical high - implying almost NIL risk of default.


At current prices, Giti Tire Singapore has a 6% SGD bond offering appx 15% YTM (yield-till-maturity) with 15-weeks till maturity (Appx 1% per week). The largest bondholder is a huge fund manager in HK, Value Partners. The holiding company was already insulated from the risks of the Indonesian business and controls assets around the world. The Singapore HQ is expected to benefit significantly from this development. A good opportunity to park short-term cash in this SGD Bond.

Caveat emptor
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MarcPh
Senior
28-Jul-2017 07:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Singapore-dollar bond prices remain strong despite last week' s S$365 million default by Nam Cheong, another offshore support vessel-focused group that has become insolvent. " We expect full-year issuance to exceed that of 2016. The SGD market continues to be awash with liquidity looking for yield alternatives to cash and bank deposits. As long as global monetary policy remains subdued, demand for the asset class should remain robust," said Mr Schubert.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/singapore-dollar-bond-market-still-robust-despite-nam-cheong-default

 
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MarcPh
Senior
27-Jul-2017 22:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		ARA 5.2% bonds projected to cross 104 

MarcPh      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:17) Posted:

SUPER HOT CAKE!!! Better than Netlink Trust!

Issuer: ARA Asset Management Ltd
Issuer/Bond Rating: Unrated
Currency: SGD
Rank:  Subordinated Perpetual Securities
Tenor: Perpetual, callable in 5yrs
Coupon: Indicative 5.5% area (expect final coupon 5- 5.2% area)
Coupon Stepup and reset: 300bps step-up & reset from year 7
Denomination: SGD250K
Use of Proceeds: General corporate purposes, refinance existing borrowings, financing investments, working capital
Change of Control: Issuer call at Par if John Lim, The Straits Trading Company Ltd, Cheung Kong Property Ltd. Warburg Pincus and/or Avic Trust cease to own in aggregate 30% shareholding interest of the Issuer
Dividend Pusher and Stopper: Yes
Listing/Clearing: SGX-ST/CDP
Lead Managers & Bookrunners: OCBC, DBS, UOB

 

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MarcPh
Senior
27-Jul-2017 08:36     
 
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 Alert Admin

Noble Group warns of $1.8bn loss as it unveils survival plan
https://www.ft.com/content/2fdf53bc-7212-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

Failure of WTI prices to cross critical 55 mark dampens valuation of Noble' s oil assets in N.America

Sign of Times:
additional info, China' s commodity powerhouse removed a department in Singapore without any severence package.



MarcPh      ( Date: 12-May-2017 10:55) Posted:



High Risk Commodity Companies - Noble Group

Noble' s latest US$750mio 8.75% bonds crashed 30% within a week after the company announced US$129.5mio quarterly losses. Another tranche of US$400mio bonds is due to mature within a year but the current market cap is less than US$800mio. There is another 6.75% $1250mio ($1.25bio) due in 2020. In comparison competitors such as COFCO enjoys ultra-low cost of financing.
 

Latest results:
NOBLE Group fell into the red with a net loss of US$129.5 million for the first quarter despite a rise in revenue as operating income from supply chains plunged. Noble said that the operating environment was very challenging for the group in the first three months of this year." The dislocation in coal markets, and the very thin trading liquidity witnessed in the respective hedging instruments, was detrimental to the short term - 12 week - outturn," it said.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/noble-incurs-q1-net-loss-of-us1295m-despite-rise-in-revenue

 

Please take such reports with a pinch of salt. While Noble claims that Coal business was tough, in the same period Indonesia' s Geo Energy Resources claimed that they are fetching good prices for their coal and profits escalated in the first quarter of 2017. (This is not a buy recommendation for Geo Energy Resources, just mocking the half-hearted Noble quarterly report... ...such a shame).

Quote - " The Group&rsquo s revenue increased by US$ 87.4 million or 735% from US$ 11.9 million in 1Q2016 to US$ 99.3 million in 1Q2017. This was mainly driven by the increased volume of coal delivered from the Group&rsquo s SDJ mine, and higher coal prices." http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Geo%20Energy%20-%20Press%20Release.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=453138

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MarcPh
Senior
27-Jul-2017 08:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		High Risk Offshore & Marine Companies - Jurong Shipyard (Sembcorp Marine)

Jurong Shipyard 3.85% bonds trading at appx 10% below par. With no recovery in rig-orders and delivery, Keppel' s latest statement appears to position Sembcorp Marine as a burden, will Keppel low-ball Sembcorp Marine in a takeover?

SeaDrill expect to cancel rig order with Jurong Shipyard.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-seadrill-debt-idUSKBN1AB0N9

According to data published by the Association of Singapore Marine Industries, the total order book at Singapore shipyards shrank by more than half from 2015 to 2016 with new orders down from S$4.9bn ($3.6bn) in 2015 to S$820m in 2016. To put this in context, in February 2017 the Development Bank of Singapore reported that, globally, since 2015 there had been only eight orders for jack-up rigs.
http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=855f0285-b3a3-4061-8932-ff5df20fe7fe

Keppel pours cold water on tie-up with Sembmarine

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1315147/keppel-pours-cold-water-on-tie-up-with-sembmarine
However, Keppel Corporation chief executive Loh Chin Hua said:" We continue to look at R& D and continue to look at acquiring capabilities. But at this point in the cycle, we think that capacity is not that important. Indeed, we think that in the short term, the capacity may be a bit of a liability, if you are not able to fill the yard. " So we do not see any advantage in growing our capacities at this point in time."

Keppel O& M is unlisted so any type of merger would likely see Keppel injecting this division into Sembmarine for return for equity in the combined entity. Another option would the parent SembCorp Industries divesting its O& M business to Keppel for cash and/or other assets from Keppel&rsquo s portfolio.

 
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