Back

Latest Forum Topics / SingTel    Last:3.18    +0.01

Post Reply

China Mobile Estimated Fair Value - Willis Ow Post Reply Rate topic
willisow Master	23-Mar-2017 15:43        willisow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Following the announcement of China Mobile 2016 full year result, SJ members are advised not to follow the existing data of this thread becos it will not be updated with the latest interim statistic. This thread will be closed with immediate effect and once again investors are advised not to follow the past stipulated entry price and fair value indicated by myself. Thank you.      CLOSED....
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
willisow Master	27-Nov-2016 15:29        willisow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015   OPERATING PROFIT $159,574 $194,003 $216,267 $229,023 $239,382 $251,025 $253,646 $240,426 $241,831 $240,028 IN MILLION OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN 54.03% 54.35% 52.52% 50.66% 49.33% 47.54% 43.59% 38.15% 37.12% 35.91%   RETURN ON ASSETS 32.26% 34.43% 32.85% 30.48% 27.77% 26.35% 24.11% 20.60% 17.94% 16.81%   OPERATING PROFIT/INTEREST COST 106 106 140 184 265 444 650 726 497 528   DEBT RATIO 11.49% 9.00% 7.64% 6.63% 5.84% 4.42% 3.97% 0.64% 0.68% 0.54%   CASH/TOTAL DEBT 4.19 5.60 6.49 7.87 8.68 11.61 14.04 83.04 70.51 80.72   CASH/SHORT TERM DEBT 50 2,773 3,210 3,890 58 4,896 5,925 6,175 400 N.A   SHARE BASE 19,968 20,032 20,054 20,061 20,065 20,072 20,100 20,103 20,438 20,475 IN MILLION DIVIDEND PAID $26,162 $34,088 $44,274 $48,614 $50,201 $52,575 $55,425 $55,491 $50,924 $47,912 IN MILLION DIVIDEND PER SHARE $1.31 $1.70 $2.21 $2.42 $2.50 $2.62 $2.76 $2.76 $2.49 $2.34   PE RATIO 8.41 13.94 7.21 6.38 6.47 6.07 7.15 6.72 7.65 7.46     Im pleased to present the largest PRC telco, China Mobile Ltd. From the above data, we can see that its OPM was on a declining trend and this was contributed by a few factors.  1) Change of consumption behavior. Voice call and text messaging account for about 70% of total revenue in 2006 and currently its proportion fell to about 45% and replaced by app messaging which consume on data services of lower profit margin to the company.  2) Low take up rate of 4G services. PRC telcos are in the process of converting its customers base into 4G services but the process of doing so is slow. Monthly conversion is about 6 million users as a whole industry and about 72 million users per year. While the revenue from 4G is slow, its operating cost per 4G users is high due to low conversion base, hence it will take sometime for the company to stabilise its OPM. Although currently China mobile is faced with declining OPM, it maintained a very strong balancesheet. Effectively it is a debt free company and flooded with cash. This is a very strong attribute for the company and it is also very rare to find a PRC company with zero debt and cash rich balance sheet. Given time, once its OPM stabilise, it will return to growth again.  My assessment of it fair value at HKD83.87 and ideal entry price at HKD68.78 or below. A gentle reminder to all investors, the ideal entry price is derived based on a historical safety margin off its fair value and it is not a price prediction. Investors are advised to buy in batches to further safeguard your capital against volatility. The estimated fair value is derived based on a long term horizon and i have no timeline to realise its value. Investors with short term investment horizon are advised not to follow. PLEASE DO NOT REPLY OR COMMENT IN THIS THREAD, THIS IS STRICTLY MEANT FOR VIEWING ONLY. Readers are welcome to direct your comments or queries to my discussion thread " Feel free to share anything about investment" , thank you :)
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   1-2 of 2   Last