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chengwh1 Elite	20-Aug-2017 21:59        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tq Sun233,... The dvd payment will go on as usual, how do you mean by two more dvd payments or just one since there is a bonus issue ? Every qtr, there will be a dvd payment, and at the 4th qtr, the standard is 2 cts. How will a bonus issue affect a takeover, if it is to come ? More liquidity, more  shares, more shareholders, it will be harder to satisfy all the votes,.. Haha,.. you think AMAT will buyover UMS, is it ? Well, I know many things will affect the EPS, that' s why I did not want to go into each and every detail, hence, I just used the final figure that will most probably affect the dps payout, ie the EPS. I put in an estimation of a drop in the  NP by 15%,... still gotten a respectable  1.82 Cents of EPS. If the NP should drop by MORE THAN 15%, then the EPS will be much lower,... I thinksince the renwed contract has a lower average selling price, the management  decided to move the production facilities to lower-cost Penang. The Penang facility is to  REPLACE the SG facility, not in preparation for more orders,... sun233      ( Date: 20-Aug-2017 21:29) Posted: " Major customer' s demand moderating in the second half of this year." I don' t think this is a worry. The US is expectating a rise in demand for Tech in the coming quarters.......especially since they have a major shooping season coming. A bigger worry will be the renewal of contracts at the same if not higher prices.  With reagrds to dilution of shares...........that is a concern but like what i mentioned above the risk may be minimal since Tech is expected to grow. EPS is hard to calculate as there are so many factors to consider. EBIT, EBITDA and other factors have to be considered. I do not want to hazard a guess. Surprises are possible. Also we do not know if the Penang plant will have orders straightaway at the getgo or are they building to get orders. The biggest concern i have are the strength of our dollar SGD. This is what has been causing our stock market to slide over the last two weeks. Dilution is a concern too but i believe the CEO is no fool. Why pay out more when is he not sure he can maintain the payments. He is substantial shareholder. Pay yourself first comes to mind. Another concern is the North Korean tensions. Tomorrows military exercise is going to cause tensions to escalate which in turn will cause more swings in the market.   The faster SGX gives their approval the better it will be for shareholders. The big guns are having a field dayover the last few sessions. Will there be two more dividend payments or just one since there is a bonus issue. That has not be established at the earnings report.   On the plus side AMAT announced their earnings last Fri. Good earnings and based on transcripts of the earnings call,   CEO mention merger and aquisitions is on the card.   Even our local new agencies have highlighted that UMS is a strong takeover target. I was also one of the lucky ones to have bought Super just before it became a takeover play. Our papers mentioned that Super was a strong candiate and true enough Douwe Egbert bought it. Finger' s crossed!! The articles highlighted other comapnies like Fu Yu, Mermaid Maritime and also Dyna Mac. Time will tell. Sooner is better in this case. chengwh1      ( Date: 20-Aug-2017 18:49) Posted: Some calculations to ' predict the future after issuance of the Bonus Shares' :- The Net Profit from Operations attributable to Owners of the Company at end-2Q = 11.482Mil, and divide this by the current  number of shares of 429 143 947 Shares gives an EPS of 2.68 Cts per Share. After Bonus Issuance, assuming the Net Profit as above  stays the same at 11.482Mil, then dividing this by the NEW number of shares = 536 429 933 Shares will give an EPS of 2.14 Cts. Some notable ' negative'   remarks from the recent report release for 2Q2017 were :- 1) Major customer' s demand moderating in the second half of this year. 2) The new terms of the renewed contract which will have a lower average selling price will take effect in the near future, probably from the second half too. The mitigations are :- 1) Any margin decrease will be minimal as the price reduction is mainly due to reduction in the scope of integrating 3rd party materials, hence can be controlled. 2) Increase production activities from the 3Q2017 from ' lower-cost' Penang. Coming from the above remarks, and assuming  a worse  case scenario moving forward from now with a 15% reduction in the Net Profit from Operations attributable to us, the Shareholders,  say,..  the Net Profit dropped to 9.760Mil, then dividing this by the NEW number of shares = 536 429 933 Shares will give an EPS of  1.82 Cts. Back in end-2Q2016, the EPS was lower at 1.51 Cts, still the dps could be maintained. The questions would  now be :- 1) Is a 15% reduction enough for estimation ? Could it be up to 25% reduction in the NP attributed to Shareholders ? 2) What happens of the above estimations are ' annualised' , will the effect created turn out worse results ? 3) What is the USD does not strengthen against the SGD soon  ? How bad would the effect be ? Opinions ?
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sun233 Elite	20-Aug-2017 21:29        sun233 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	" Major customer' s demand moderating in the second half of this year." I don' t think this is a worry. The US is expectating a rise in demand for Tech in the coming quarters.......especially since they have a major shooping season coming. A bigger worry will be the renewal of contracts at the same if not higher prices.  With reagrds to dilution of shares...........that is a concern but like what i mentioned above the risk may be minimal since Tech is expected to grow. EPS is hard to calculate as there are so many factors to consider. EBIT, EBITDA and other factors have to be considered. I do not want to hazard a guess. Surprises are possible. Also we do not know if the Penang plant will have orders straightaway at the getgo or are they building to get orders. The biggest concern i have are the strength of our dollar SGD. This is what has been causing our stock market to slide over the last two weeks. Dilution is a concern too but i believe the CEO is no fool. Why pay out more when is he not sure he can maintain the payments. He is substantial shareholder. Pay yourself first comes to mind. Another concern is the North Korean tensions. Tomorrows military exercise is going to cause tensions to escalate which in turn will cause more swings in the market.   The faster SGX gives their approval the better it will be for shareholders. The big guns are having a field dayover the last few sessions. Will there be two more dividend payments or just one since there is a bonus issue. That has not be established at the earnings report.   On the plus side AMAT announced their earnings last Fri. Good earnings and based on transcripts of the earnings call,   CEO mention merger and aquisitions is on the card.   Even our local new agencies have highlighted that UMS is a strong takeover target. I was also one of the lucky ones to have bought Super just before it became a takeover play. Our papers mentioned that Super was a strong candiate and true enough Douwe Egbert bought it. Finger' s crossed!! The articles highlighted other comapnies like Fu Yu, Mermaid Maritime and also Dyna Mac. Time will tell. Sooner is better in this case. chengwh1      ( Date: 20-Aug-2017 18:49) Posted: Some calculations to ' predict the future after issuance of the Bonus Shares' :- The Net Profit from Operations attributable to Owners of the Company at end-2Q = 11.482Mil, and divide this by the current  number of shares of 429 143 947 Shares gives an EPS of 2.68 Cts per Share. After Bonus Issuance, assuming the Net Profit as above  stays the same at 11.482Mil, then dividing this by the NEW number of shares = 536 429 933 Shares will give an EPS of 2.14 Cts. Some notable ' negative'   remarks from the recent report release for 2Q2017 were :- 1) Major customer' s demand moderating in the second half of this year. 2) The new terms of the renewed contract which will have a lower average selling price will take effect in the near future, probably from the second half too. The mitigations are :- 1) Any margin decrease will be minimal as the price reduction is mainly due to reduction in the scope of integrating 3rd party materials, hence can be controlled. 2) Increase production activities from the 3Q2017 from ' lower-cost' Penang. Coming from the above remarks, and assuming  a worse  case scenario moving forward from now with a 15% reduction in the Net Profit from Operations attributable to us, the Shareholders,  say,..  the Net Profit dropped to 9.760Mil, then dividing this by the NEW number of shares = 536 429 933 Shares will give an EPS of  1.82 Cts. Back in end-2Q2016, the EPS was lower at 1.51 Cts, still the dps could be maintained. The questions would  now be :- 1) Is a 15% reduction enough for estimation ? Could it be up to 25% reduction in the NP attributed to Shareholders ? 2) What happens of the above estimations are ' annualised' , will the effect created turn out worse results ? 3) What is the USD does not strengthen against the SGD soon  ? How bad would the effect be ? Opinions ?
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chengwh1 Elite	20-Aug-2017 18:49        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Some calculations to ' predict the future after issuance of the Bonus Shares' :- The Net Profit from Operations attributable to Owners of the Company at end-2Q = 11.482Mil, and divide this by the current  number of shares of 429 143 947 Shares gives an EPS of 2.68 Cts per Share. After Bonus Issuance, assuming the Net Profit as above  stays the same at 11.482Mil, then dividing this by the NEW number of shares = 536 429 933 Shares will give an EPS of 2.14 Cts. Some notable ' negative'   remarks from the recent report release for 2Q2017 were :- 1) Major customer' s demand moderating in the second half of this year. 2) The new terms of the renewed contract which will have a lower average selling price will take effect in the near future, probably from the second half too. The mitigations are :- 1) Any margin decrease will be minimal as the price reduction is mainly due to reduction in the scope of integrating 3rd party materials, hence can be controlled. 2) Increase production activities from the 3Q2017 from ' lower-cost' Penang. Coming from the above remarks, and assuming  a worse  case scenario moving forward from now with a 15% reduction in the Net Profit from Operations attributable to us, the Shareholders,  say,..  the Net Profit dropped to 9.760Mil, then dividing this by the NEW number of shares = 536 429 933 Shares will give an EPS of  1.82 Cts. Back in end-2Q2016, the EPS was lower at 1.51 Cts, still the dps could be maintained. The questions would  now be :- 1) Is a 15% reduction enough for estimation ? Could it be up to 25% reduction in the NP attributed to Shareholders ? 2) What happens of the above estimations are ' annualised' , will the effect created turn out worse results ? 3) What is the USD does not strengthen against the SGD soon  ? How bad would the effect be ? Opinions ?
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chengwh1 Elite	19-Aug-2017 22:39        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Judging from past performances and from the previous report,... I think can buy if you think you do not have enough.... however, don' t pour everything you have  into this ctr,... do think abt diversification,... control yrself,.... Tommy12356      ( Date: 19-Aug-2017 14:47) Posted: Small correction, goofd oppty to buy or cut loss ? chengwh1      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 17:11) Posted: Yes bros,.... Majulah Singapura -  Brought prosperity to American Citizen Andy Luong, and Andy returns back good things to us,....
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Tommy12356 Master	19-Aug-2017 14:47        Tommy12356 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Small correction, goofd oppty to buy or cut loss ? chengwh1      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 17:11) Posted: Yes bros,.... Majulah Singapura -  Brought prosperity to American Citizen Andy Luong, and Andy returns back good things to us,....
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chengwh1 Elite	18-Aug-2017 17:11        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes bros,.... Majulah Singapura -  Brought prosperity to American Citizen Andy Luong, and Andy returns back good things to us,....
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acid88 Member	18-Aug-2017 16:42        acid88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	weird that price so stable today..
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zandlery Supreme	18-Aug-2017 15:48        zandlery About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes indeed. This counter before mid 2017 seldom get any attention even though it have been given put steady dividend which worth 10% of your investment annually. Honestly I was a noob in investing back then and without much thought, bought this stock when the SSH sell and cause a selldown....greatest investment so far....haha chengwh1      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:43) Posted: I on' t think there are many ' new' investors who are just going in now,... MOst of us would be existing investors, and if we have been here long enough, our average price would be very much lower, probably in the range of 60c to 80c,... Hence, after we get our binus shares, our ' new' average price will go down to the range of 48c to 64c,... which is a GREAT PRICE to hold at,... zandlery      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:31) Posted: If 6c of dividend will be maintain. Current price will get around 6% return annually. Much much better than leave the money in the bank or bonds
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sengsk Elite	18-Aug-2017 15:47        sengsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Most of old investor should took back all their capital thru. Dividend + Bonus Just let it run and keep collecting the good dividend . chengwh1      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:43) Posted: I on' t think there are many ' new' investors who are just going in now,... MOst of us would be existing investors, and if we have been here long enough, our average price would be very much lower, probably in the range of 60c to 80c,... Hence, after we get our binus shares, our ' new' average price will go down to the range of 48c to 64c,... which is a GREAT PRICE to hold at,... zandlery      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:31) Posted: If 6c of dividend will be maintain. Current price will get around 6% return annually. Much much better than leave the money in the bank or bonds
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bishan22 Supreme	18-Aug-2017 15:45        bishan22 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed.. most r lau cheow.... current price is still ex... wait..... chengwh1      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:43) Posted: I on' t think there are many ' new' investors who are just going in now,... MOst of us would be existing investors, and if we have been here long enough, our average price would be very much lower, probably in the range of 60c to 80c,... Hence, after we get our binus shares, our ' new' average price will go down to the range of 48c to 64c,... which is a GREAT PRICE to hold at,... zandlery      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:31) Posted: If 6c of dividend will be maintain. Current price will get around 6% return annually. Much much better than leave the money in the bank or bonds
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chengwh1 Elite	18-Aug-2017 15:43        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I on' t think there are many ' new' investors who are just going in now,... MOst of us would be existing investors, and if we have been here long enough, our average price would be very much lower, probably in the range of 60c to 80c,... Hence, after we get our binus shares, our ' new' average price will go down to the range of 48c to 64c,... which is a GREAT PRICE to hold at,... zandlery      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:31) Posted: If 6c of dividend will be maintain. Current price will get around 6% return annually. Much much better than leave the money in the bank or bonds. Yesman      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:12) Posted: True to that. Although i think it will take a few years to go down to 50 n 60 cent. Price now is at a steal. But this counter is for long term.
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chengwh1 Elite	18-Aug-2017 15:39        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If the average price of your holdings currently is at 50c, then after the crediting of the bonus shares, your average price will drop to 40c if you do not do anything from now,...  a very safe price indeed, with a big margin-of-safety. zandlery      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 14:55) Posted: Holding this stock for quite a while make me realise the management have a steady mentality. Treat this stock as a saving long term investment will reap rewards years down the road. Not for punting and daily trading in my point of view. Start to hold this stock when in 50c range and reinvest when deem share price low enough have make my overall investment growth significantly..... Sorry to say to those who buy at higher range but hope to see 60c to 70c range again so I can add more.....
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chengwh1 Elite	18-Aug-2017 15:36        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well,.. we need to thank you for alerting us to this,... But, frankly, if the coy is good and has money, it doesn' t matter if it' s a stock split too,... The thing that matters is they misled investors by using such ' turnaround words' ,..  bernardc      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 14:38) Posted: well enjoy your bonus share without capitilisation..whatever that means.. this bright spot becomes dark now???
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zandlery Supreme	18-Aug-2017 15:31        zandlery About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If 6c of dividend will be maintain. Current price will get around 6% return annually. Much much better than leave the money in the bank or bonds. Yesman      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 15:12) Posted: True to that. Although i think it will take a few years to go down to 50 n 60 cent. Price now is at a steal. But this counter is for long term.  zandlery      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 14:55) Posted: Holding this stock for quite a while make me realise the management have a steady mentality. Treat this stock as a saving long term investment will reap rewards years down the road. Not for punting and daily trading in my point of view. Start to hold this stock when in 50c range and reinvest when deem share price low enough have make my overall investment growth significantly..... Sorry to say to those who buy at higher range but hope to see 60c to 70c range again so I can add more.....
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Yesman Member	18-Aug-2017 15:12        Yesman About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	True to that. Although i think it will take a few years to go down to 50 n 60 cent. Price now is at a steal. But this counter is for long term.  zandlery      ( Date: 18-Aug-2017 14:55) Posted: Holding this stock for quite a while make me realise the management have a steady mentality. Treat this stock as a saving long term investment will reap rewards years down the road. Not for punting and daily trading in my point of view. Start to hold this stock when in 50c range and reinvest when deem share price low enough have make my overall investment growth significantly..... Sorry to say to those who buy at higher range but hope to see 60c to 70c range again so I can add more.....
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zandlery Supreme	18-Aug-2017 14:55        zandlery About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Holding this stock for quite a while make me realise the management have a steady mentality. Treat this stock as a saving long term investment will reap rewards years down the road. Not for punting and daily trading in my point of view. Start to hold this stock when in 50c range and reinvest when deem share price low enough have make my overall investment growth significantly..... Sorry to say to those who buy at higher range but hope to see 60c to 70c range again so I can add more.....
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bernardc Elite	18-Aug-2017 14:38        bernardc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	well enjoy your bonus share without capitilisation..whatever that means.. this bright spot becomes dark now???
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genting^2 Master	18-Aug-2017 12:43        genting^2 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	UMS, AEM, will continue to drop due to fear and profit taking. those TA people will take advantage withot bothering abt the Fundamental
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acid88 Member	18-Aug-2017 12:32        acid88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	reinvesting in this at good low stablised price...
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chengwh1 Elite	18-Aug-2017 11:36        chengwh1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I observed lower lows and lower highs everyday fwd,...
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