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Super Coffee

SJRay93
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12-Nov-2014 22:25

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I don' t think you should SL at 1.05. Given the volatitly of this stock, you' ll most likely hit the 1.05 mark quicker than you' d imagine. Having a SL is like buying a stock and then dooming it to that price level. I would say that the price is more or less stable now as all the infomation is out, those who wants to sell have sold (if it were to hit 0.80 it would' ve been there on Monday) and it' s just hovering around this price level until better information shows up.

That' s just my opinion so take it with a pinch of salt. (:

Ptmptm ( Date: 12-Nov-2014 17:32) Posted:

Vested at 1.07 today, SL at 1.05 if break.

Already bottomed?

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Ptmptm
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12-Nov-2014 17:32

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Vested at 1.07 today, SL at 1.05 if break.

Already bottomed?

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SGX_newcomer_87
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12-Nov-2014 14:09

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Yells: "i'm a flexible passive investor"

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Can someone copy paste what' s inside that link please.

i don' t have an account there.

Thanks in advance.

joshlai86 ( Date: 11-Nov-2014 22:52) Posted:

Chance upon this. Interesting. http://m.wsj.com/articles/unhappy-private-equity-couple-about-to-split-up-1405022873?mobile=y

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joshlai86
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11-Nov-2014 22:52

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Chance upon this. Interesting. http://m.wsj.com/articles/unhappy-private-equity-couple-about-to-split-up-1405022873?mobile=y

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think2profit
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11-Nov-2014 22:16

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Penny result, big cap price. Have no illusion

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enjoylife77
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11-Nov-2014 15:56

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Super Group - Risk/reward tide could be turning U/G Hold (TP: SGD1.02, SUPER SP, Consumer)

3Q14 below, hit by higher input costs and unfavourable product mix.
4Q14 reprieve, with medium-term turnaround plan showing early promise.
Upgrade to HOLD from SELL. SGD1.02 TP pegged to five-year mean of 15x FY15E EPS.

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guiren
Veteran

11-Nov-2014 15:42

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Agree with Morningstar13, jwong016,, what kind of analyst, when high, indicate higher, when low, indicate lower ,,

morningstar13 ( Date: 11-Nov-2014 15:28) Posted:

haha ..the better way is to do the opposite... watch carefully ...

jwong016 ( Date: 11-Nov-2014 15:27) Posted:

cause they short the stock liao, come help them short haha

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morningstar13
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11-Nov-2014 15:28

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haha ..the better way is to do the opposite... watch carefully ...

jwong016 ( Date: 11-Nov-2014 15:27) Posted:

cause they short the stock liao, come help them short haha

moron101 ( Date: 11-Nov-2014 15:21) Posted:

CIMB TP dropped to .83 from 1.42. Why haaa? So jialat..

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jwong016
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11-Nov-2014 15:27

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cause they short the stock liao, come help them short haha

moron101 ( Date: 11-Nov-2014 15:21) Posted:

CIMB TP dropped to .83 from 1.42. Why haaa? So jialat..

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morningstar13
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11-Nov-2014 15:26

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Take it with a pinch of salt..few months back,many analysts still give bullish pricing. Follow them blindly and u' ll be played round their fingers.

moron101 ( Date: 11-Nov-2014 15:21) Posted:

CIMB TP dropped to .83 from 1.42. Why haaa? So jialat..

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moron101
Supreme

11-Nov-2014 15:21

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CIMB TP dropped to .83 from 1.42. Why haaa? So jialat..

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hotelgrand
Master

11-Nov-2014 10:28

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Super Group | PDF

Food ingredients margins crash

▊ Super Group continues to struggle. The main negative in 3Q was narrowing margins. Sales faltered at similar rates as before (expected), but a sharp GP margin contraction (-3.6%pts qoq) caused the earnings shortfall. 3Q net profit (S$10.5m) formed only 13% of our full-year forecast, and 9M14 only 57%. We do not see light at the end of the tunnel. We expect the share price to be weighed down by further earnings cuts we cut our own EPS by 23-26%. Our target price is slashed to S$0.83, based on 14x CY16 P/E as we roll forward to end-15 target price but cut target multiples (14x) to pre-2012 levels, when the stock was devoid of emerging markets hype. Weak ASEAN currencies and cost pressures present a difficult environment for this former market darling.

Branded Consumer: weak markets are SG and PH
Branded Consumer (BC) sales (63% of group -6% yoy) missed expectations mildly. Weaker BC markets in 3Q were SG (4th largest BC market -10% yoy) and PH (5th largest) SG due to teething issues in moving its supply chain out of SG plus lower export sales, while PH due to the culling of non-performing brands. The relief was that key markets of Thailand and Myanmar returned to growth (+5% yoy in S$-terms). Thailand (largest BC market 30% of BC sales) was driven by new products (brown coffee) and a push into north Thailand. Myanmar&rsquo s sales growth was muted by a 6%-price discount and would have had 11%-volume growth, ex-discounts. The BC division is finding its feet after the 2H13 currency turmoil. 3Q Food Ingredients (FI) sales rose 3% yoy.

Margin contraction a huge negative
While 3Q sales growth (-3% yoy) was mildly below par, the big negative in 3Q was margins. Group GP margins (32%) fell another 3.6%pts qoq, hitting the lows last seen in FY08 and FY11. Super attributed this to cost pressure from higher palm kernel oil (PKO) prices. 3Q gross profit fell 12% qoq (main reason for earnings miss) we estimate that a quarter of this was attributable to BC sales decline, and the rest to collapsing FI margins. (See Fig. 1). Lower CPO prices ahead should offer some relief, but management did not sound sanguine.

Focusing on premiumisation no earnings turnaround yet
The strategy ahead is to focus on differentiating its ingredients business by adding features (freeze-dry, botanical herbal extract). We worry that as the BC market slows, the FI business is also proving to be rather commoditised.

Previous " Super Group" reports...
11/8/14 Co.Results Still grinding through (RD, S$1.49 /TP:1.42▼ )
12/5/14 Co.Results Headwinds to dominate for now (RD▼ , S$3.39 /TP:3.26▼ )
12/3/14 Co.Note Better entry opportunity now (AD▲ , S$3.50 /TP:4.20)

Any feedback/questions, please click on the author' s name to email or call them at the number displayed.
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Click here for Analysts Coverage details....

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Almsoo7
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10-Nov-2014 22:48

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Ya, won' t be selling unless it' s a dying business. But treating it as a lesson learnt for listening too much to brokers' recommendations. Was too naive back then to actually believe in their recommendations and made 2 erroneous trades whose paper losses continue till now.

Ptmptm ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 21:37) Posted:

Agree
Collect low. But still stick to your SL if price drop further.

sun233 ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 21:27) Posted:

Almsoo............hold on to it dude. A santa claus rally could bring prices up. dont take a loss. Me too holding. At most leave it there to collect dividend. Company still making money albeit slowly. Hopefully the family might be forced to sell to bigger players. It is a good takeover target. Thai Bev or some other big boys might make them an offer they cannot refuse.If you just got out of school dude you have time on yr hands. Relax dont let fluctuations bring you down. think of it this way that same omount of money put in the bank will earn you enough to buy peanuts.........left where it is gets you a bigger packet of peanuts!!

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Ptmptm
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10-Nov-2014 21:37

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Agree
Collect low. But still stick to your SL if price drop further.

sun233 ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 21:27) Posted:

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sun233
Elite

10-Nov-2014 21:27

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Ptmptm
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10-Nov-2014 20:50

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See if I can get .99 soon

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SJRay93
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10-Nov-2014 20:46

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That is why we ride the storm, my friend. (:

Almsoo7 ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 19:51) Posted:

I bought 1 lot at its peak a few months back, seeing it dive by over 30% feels damn painful as a novice investor who only got out of school loan debt earlier this year. After seeing the results this afternoon, i was comtemplating if i should just sell to cut loss but then i was thinking why should i sell if company is still earning money and that the products are not a dying trend? Of cos it could be im trying to convince myself the price will rebound but i reckon that the cost of selling and reentering later at lower price only seems arbitrarily more profitable since most of time we fail to time the market accurately.

guiren ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 16:47) Posted:

Agree with KiLrOy and SJRay93 and infoshare Senior. wisemen

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morningstar13
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10-Nov-2014 20:40

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http://www.fool.sg/2014/11/10/these-2-shares-might-be-great-shares-to-own/

These 2 Shares Might Be Great Shares to Own

Here&rsquo s why Raffles Medical Group Ltd. (SGX:R01) and Super Group Ltd. (SGX:S10) might be great shares to own.

When it comes to pruning the universe of listed-companies to make it easier to find interesting investing opportunities, billionaire investor Warren Buffett had given some very useful hints more than 27 years ago.

A useful tool-kit

In his 1987 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder&rsquo s letter, Buffett wrote about a study conducted by Fortune Magazine for its 1988 Investor&rsquo s Guide issue. The study, which covered 500 of America&rsquo s largest industrial companies and 500 of the largest services companies, had looked at each firm&rsquo s returns on equity and subsequent market returns. This is how Buffett describes Fortune&rsquo s findings:

&ldquo Only 25 of the 1,000 companies met two tests of economic excellence &ndash an average return on equity of 20% in the 10 years, 1977 through 1986, and no year worse than 15%. These business superstars were also stock market superstars: During the decade, 24 of the 25 outperformed the S& P 500 [an American share market index].&rdquo

Buffett also added that of those 25 outperformers, &ldquo most use[d] very little leverage compared to their interest-paying capacity.&rdquo He then followed up with the thought that &ldquo [r]eally good businesses usually don&rsquo t need to borrow.&rdquo

Finding great shares locally

With Buffett&rsquo s words as a guide, it thus makes sense for investors to look for shares with a history of generating high returns on equity while using very little leverage. The criteria shared by Buffett &ndash shares with an average return on equity of 20% in their last 10 years and with no year worse than 15% &ndash is great. But, it might be too stringent in Singapore&rsquo s context given our much smaller pool of shares to choose from (there are only around 750 listed entities in our local market).

Due to the constraints, we could perhaps look at shares which had (1) generated an average return on equity of at least 15% over their last 10 completed financial years and (2) held more cash on hand than total borrowings in at least eight out of their last 10 financial years.

A quick screen on local shares, built with the two criteria mentioned just above, sees Raffles Medical Group Ltd. (SGX: R01) and Super Group Ltd. (SGX: S10) filter through amongst others. The former is a provider of healthcare services predominantly in Singapore while the latter makes instant beverages (mainly coffee) and other beverage ingredients for sale throughout Asia.

Returns on equity for Raffles Medical Group and Super Group

Source: S& P Capital IQ

From 2003 to 2013, Raffles Medical Group&rsquo s lowest return on equity is 8.4% while that for Super Group is 10.9%. Their average returns on equity over that decade stands at 15.1% and 15.7% respectively.

Cash and debt levels for Raffles Medical Group and Super Group

Source: S& P Capital IQ

Coming to both companies&rsquo balance sheet, they&rsquo ve for the most part, been very conservatively financed &ndash both have had way more cash on hand as compared to total borrowings in nine out of the 10 years between 2003 and 2013.

A Fool&rsquo s take

As a likely result of their stellar corporate performance in the past decade, Raffles Medical Group and Super Group have both been great long-term market beaters. Since the start of 2003, the former has gained some 1,424% in price while the latter&rsquo s up by 847%. In contrast, Singapore&rsquo s market barometer, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI), has grown by a relatively measly 146% to its current level of 3,301 points.

To be clear, all the above isn&rsquo t meant to be a buy or sell call on both shares. After all, companies with great track records do stumble at times, sometimes permanently so (Super Group, for one, has been having a very tough 2014 with declining sales and earnings). But, their corporate histories have been excellent and if only for that reason, they might be worth a closer look.

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Mark86
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10-Nov-2014 20:24

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I personally feel that trend reversal is near. Recent selldown could be the last few final waves to shake out weak holders. Bought 5 lots last week at 1.085. Am holding for long term. If market really warrants that it should drop to 80 cents, I will then average down at that level. Then this is just me, speaking from an investment perspective and minor retail investor' s point of view.

Almsoo7 ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 19:51) Posted:

guiren ( Date: 10-Nov-2014 16:47) Posted:

Agree with KiLrOy and SJRay93 and infoshare Senior. wisemen

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critical.thinkin
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10-Nov-2014 20:17

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Agree with you but you will never know when is the lowest. The result is not that bad with current thailand situation. What was shown today is the september result, the phase where thailand is building back its economy. All products takes time to gain back momentum due to bad market sentiments and unexpected world events. Judging from the expansion efforts, its a good company to invest in. For me, I am a long term investor, if it goes any lower. It present a good buying opportunity.

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