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NOL
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sgng123
Supreme |
29-May-2013 23:19
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u referring to dow jones index dropping to 15000? it is like going down 180 similar to what STI and Hong kong happen today. US market still ok compared to asia market where overpriced defensive/ yield plays is posed for a correction. Today M1 tanked 0.16 and singtel 0.12, tomorrow might be starhub turn to tank soon other low beta stocks would follow, gona be ugly for those still holding to those. Well at least a correction is happening and not a major tanking session which would cause mass panic, Correction in May Go away in June still hold lol.
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CSH123
Member |
29-May-2013 22:16
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im looking at 15000 after the surge. will go sideways after retrace
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ynnek1267
Master |
29-May-2013 21:48
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Wahahqhahaga!!!!!! Money drop from sky, don't pick. You hold nol for long long loh.
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CSH123
Member |
29-May-2013 21:36
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u r sick or cruel. All your suggestions are overbought counters .What had gone up r mostly pennies or defensive plays which are luring the greedy. This period of 6 months had been a great time for gamblers. DJIA had gone up 18%. Once P/B had equalised in these counters, it will be time for correction since earnings cannot be justified with share price
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sgng123
Supreme |
29-May-2013 21:24
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Noble down to $1.04 today and maybe we can start seeing it dropping to sub level ( < $1.00) no government support and the rot would go on. Olam is lucky to have Temasek to back the rot and now it recover all the loss caused by Carlson block short selling. That explain why it is always safer to buy stocks with government backing in time of crisis government would used tax payer money to bail out lol. Wilmar also dangerous cos now china growth is moderating, profit might be squeezed, even though lot of brokerage recommend a buy on it. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
29-May-2013 21:15
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http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/containers/article423453.ece Another report that reported asia-europe rate might not be so weak afterall, who to believe everyone seem to had a different view of spot rate. SCFI, WCI etc , to conclude don place importance on spot rate focus on NOL outlook forcast and global economy data more reliable. Global data had shown commodities super bull run had ended, now price of iron ore, copper, oil and industrial material are all going back to normal pricing, would affect profitability of commodity traders, currently agriculture commodities not so affected but always good idea to avoid it since all commodities boom stories ended with china economy moderation. Go in commodity stocks on ur own risk and prepare to hold for years till the next bull run, very long time. Currently market hit by QE3 pullout fear so trading sentiment bad, today STI tumble down 30+ and maybe more correction to go. Singtel and M1 had each downed $0.10+ each, tomorrow maybe more. NOL still holding out, down only 0.005 it more of following the sentiment for now. |
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ynnek1267
Master |
29-May-2013 20:45
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Talk talk talk. Nol is still 1.1. Talk down commodities stock? Seem like is time to load olam, noble and wilmar
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alexsmith
Member |
29-May-2013 20:42
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Pliz load in when the trend is clear or you are able to hold for 1-2 year regardless of the performance. |
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alexsmith
Member |
29-May-2013 20:40
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Agree with u, sgng123...will avoid commodities. Tq. |
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CapitalVia
Member |
29-May-2013 20:34
Yells: "FREE Trading Tips : t.co/6rspdLFgjT" |
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i hope better result in june 2013 | ||||
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cbdoctor
Member |
29-May-2013 20:27
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Should be looking for chances to load in more NOL. Wait for the bull end of the year. China slowing down, don't think commodities will do well this year. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
29-May-2013 14:08
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Just to bring out, commodity super bull run is coming to an end so don go so fast into commodities stock like noble, olam, wilmar etc. Wait for the commodities stocks to bottom out giving a 0.8P/B valuation as guide. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
29-May-2013 11:58
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June coming and trading volume would be low, time to go holiday and temporary forget about market. NOL share price look like stabilising at current price range with support and resistance balanced out. Transpacific trade planning another GRI in july1 together with Europe GRI, hope this year got peak season surcharge in the summer period else going to very boring on fiscal result flat result. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-May-2013 22:59
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US market surges 200+ due to surging consumers confidence report and improving housing report. Good news seem to be coming out of US economy nowadays, guess Fed Reserve is rite to end QE3 later this year to prevent overheating lol. If all these materialise into strong export demand from US then freight rate for transpacific would be rock solid this year and high possibility of Peak Season Surcharge in summer. Hope the good news continue to flow from now till end of this year then BB would start to move into NOL then I could start punting on it. | ||||
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alexsmith
Member |
28-May-2013 21:13
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Few things to add for those who want to short this counter: a. GRI on Europe fails (probably only until July?) but not GRI on US. Saw the SCFI on US west/east coast has stabilized. Check out following: http://www.apl.com/india/html/news_20130315_3.html http://www.apl.com/india/html/news_20130521_1.html b. US economy is coming back even though China is slowing. More business for APL then. Price could shoot up to 2007 high (best case). This year high chance this counter could shoot back. c. Last but not least, Temasek is the biggest shareholder of NOL Nonetheless, above are just my opinions. It just worth two cents though. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-May-2013 20:29
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Failed GRI on Europe route is expected as mersk and MSC the leaders did not enact any GRI during this period. Only big GRI both enacted is on July1 of US $750 more than doubling the existing rate. But trading NOL share price with freight rate news is not so accurate, I prefer US economy news trading method which is more consistent with the future share price movement. Spike in Freight rate don result in huge upward movement in NOL share but Good export/china PMI/US ISM/ US job data boost NOL share price. I still remember in Jan, good china export data jack up NOL from 1.12 to 1.32 in matter of days and a contraction in US 4Q GDP sink it down to 1.1 lol. Economy data is all that matter for NOL trading pattern, and recently US economy numbers are all pointing to a recovery with Fed reserve confirming it by surprising market that they might pull out QE3 later this year which cause the big selling last weeks in asia/Europe market. With Temasek at the back providing backstop in share price, no need for concern just like what they did with olam share price now it recover all the losses made by shorting news. What matter now is when is the perfect time to go in NOL to ride the good economy news coming out of 2H 2013, very hard to judge since BB participation is random. | ||||
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harley22ez
Senior |
28-May-2013 16:41
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Should be going down to 1.01 to 1.02 due to failed GRI! |
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sgng123
Supreme |
25-May-2013 14:15
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Spot freight rate for Europe and transpacific are moving in opposite direction. Europe rate continue their slide while transpacific rate strengthen, it is fortunate NOL exposure to Europe is very limited else going to be ugly on 2Q. Transpacific trade look firm even as bigger ships are cascaded from Europe to US, might be a good sign for 2Q result as long spot rate hold above US $2000. Need more carriers coordinated effort in GRI to ensure stable freight rate in 2013, hope big players like Maersk and MSC come to sense and reduce capacity in troubled Europe trade lane. These 2 competitors are always the culprit in rate war fight as they aim for supremacy in market leadership. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
24-May-2013 22:55
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Positive economy data all out of US economy this week. Next week the all important job data on Friday would give us a clue whether US can sustain the positive economy momentum. This is funny now traders are all scared of good news out of economy as it meant early QE3 withdrawn, bad news = good news as it would keep QE in place. One crazy market that got caught up by the QE addiction and now afraid of good news, this also indicate current run up in share price for defensive/yield play is not sustainable sooner or later got to have a few comfort delgro style of share price correction for overvalued shares. The great rotation of hot money into theme plays gona start like what we experienced in previous rally, sell into strength but don buy on dip lol. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
24-May-2013 14:07
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Anyway US market unchanged last night, so basically Asia and Europe stocks are overpriced and having a correction but the fall is more restricted to defensive and yield plays. I am expected to see another big price correction on the following counters Starhub, Comfort Delgro, Singpost, Singtel, M1, Property Reits basically any stocks that give regular yield would take hit. Was hoping hot money would do the rotation from defensive/yield plays into growth plays exposed to US economy. US economy getting stronger by the day even it is hit by tax hike and spending cut, world best economy rite now even china is starting to slow down. | ||||
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