| Latest Forum Topics / Nam Cheong |
 Post Reply
|
|
Nam Cheong
|
|||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
01-Nov-2016 16:11
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Why benefits of lower oil price may take a year to trickle down SINGAPORE (Nov 1): The plunge in oil prices has reversed the fortunes of many players in the offshore and marine industry, ranging from rig builders and shipyards to services and support providers. But with oil prices beginning to recover, KGI analyst Joel Ng expects shipyards to see limited downside although he believes benefits from the rising oil prices from OPEC cuts will take a year to reach the yards. Here&rsquo s why: Overcapacity The utilisation rates in the offshore oil and gas sector points to another year of overcapacity. Utilisation rates have dropped to 50% from 90% to 100% in 2013, and the pace of retiring old rig is not fast enough to balance out the markets. This oversupply is expected to persist into 2017, with the markets set to improve in 2018, as older rigs are retired and demand picks up. The number of jack-up rigs retired from the market has risen, with 11 scrapped in 2015 and nine year to date, compared to 13 rigs removed in the two years prior. In Southeast Asia, 25 out of 66 jack-up rigs are currently working, a less than 50% utilization rate for a major destination for jack-ups. This pain is further exacerbated for rig owners, who incur costs to maintain idle rigs. &ldquo Hence, we may expect 2017 to still be a weak year for rig markets and consequently, for the rig builders, Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine,&rdquo says Ng. Unsustainable capex cuts The capex cuts by the oil and gas industry has been sustained for two consecutive years, with current exploration and production capex cuts expected to hit 10% to 15% in 2016 after a 24% cut in 2015. However, 41% of capex cuts have been from the US. These cuts are unsustainable, notes Ng, as they may not be sufficient to replace existing production and accommodate future growth in demand. While 900,000 barrels per day of supply have been removed from high-cost non-OPEC producers since last year, this has been offset by gains of 1.1 million barrels per day from low-cost OPEC countries, notes Ng. Rightsizing and diversifying Rig builders have continued to reduce their workforce, with Keppel and Sembcorp Marine cutting its workforce by almost 8,000. Keppel has been cutting variable costs and overheads, with senior management taking pay cuts and proposed lower directors&rsquo fees for 2016. Sembcorp Marine is also returning two shipyards to the government in 2017 resulting in savings in operating leases. The rig builder is also looking to return other yards at or before lease expiry. However, rig builders have seen interest in floating production, storage and offloading conversions and solutions such as tension leg platform, semi-submersible production units as well as specialised vessels. Keppel has focused on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market for the long term securing orders for its first dual-fuel tugs based own it proprietary design. Keppel has also secured two contracts with Shell to provide LNG bunkering services for vessel owners. Sembcorp Marine has also been diversifying away to non-drilling solutions, acquiring several companies along the gas value chain. The rig builder has invested in Gravifloat in 2014, which allows for more cost effective solution compared with floating, storage and regasification units and land terminals. These efforts may take years before contributing meaningfully to the rig builders&rsquo performance, notes Ng while key earnings driver will be based on their order book. Weak results to continue Ng notes that FY17 earnings forecast for both Keppel and Sembcorp has been cut by 30% and 60% respectively. Write-downs and impairments may occur as a downside surprise causing larger than expected losses. While both rig builders have made provisions for impairments, Ng cautions that there can only be clarity after they release their full year results in January. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
cupdub
Member |
01-Nov-2016 09:54
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
When is that? 2018? | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
01-Nov-2016 09:30
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
when their debt is due for repayment, another saga will come..... |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Qanghoo
Supreme |
31-Oct-2016 22:22
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Good one, brother. Like it. I laugh when I read it.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sheerluck
Supreme |
31-Oct-2016 18:25
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Yes but NC likely to bump one before all melt.....
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
31-Oct-2016 18:02
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Them means what? Short huh? | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Qanghoo
Supreme |
31-Oct-2016 17:39
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Global warming, iceberg thawing liao.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
cupdub
Member |
31-Oct-2016 16:47
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Try again at 0.58...cut at 0.54 | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sheerluck
Supreme |
31-Oct-2016 16:29
Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Towards iceberg.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
31-Oct-2016 16:03
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
this one heading which direction? |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
PinPoint
Member |
26-Oct-2016 08:57
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Most likely drop today more to Russia news on no cut production than their result annoucement. I believe they will stay afloat in this difficult times. There will still be rumours of privatisation by Semcorp Industries or Temesak merger ambition with Keppel Corp to keep the share prices stable.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
cupdub
Member |
26-Oct-2016 08:51
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I had to cut loss earlier..
The mood is negative, but the willingness/ lack of choice of bond holders to cut haircuts and accept the restructured debt is actually a good sign to me. Watching this stock still |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
26-Oct-2016 08:44
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
semb marine also will sink today probably. i' m sure you aware of their financial report. :(
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
PinPoint
Member |
26-Oct-2016 08:37
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I have also sold most of my o& g counters except semb marine. All those small o& g companies will bleed further. Swiber, Swissco, more to come to burn our bonuses for the year end..
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
26-Oct-2016 07:38
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Bloomberg reported Russia not joining opec to cut production. With other 3 opec member waival for production cut, wonder how Saudi can fulfill promise to cut production in nov. API also reported 3x higher glut in usa to 4.8 mil barrel instead of forecast 1.6mil.
Think Will sold off my o&g counters include this one to cut loss. Next week fed meeting. Market sure hands off trading and trim down their portfolio first. Rather than seeing this counter bleed everyday, might as well let it drop back to 0.15 before buying again. Chart also pessimistic showing. Any view to differ or support? Now oil less than $50 already. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
25-Oct-2016 18:16
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I think because of ezra resume trading around that time and situation was kinda negative. Moreover, ppl too optimistic about opec nov meeting. priced in already. But now starting to see objection from opec members.... osv already excess, wonder how nam cheong will cope..
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
cupdub
Member |
25-Oct-2016 18:06
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Noticed an orchestrated dumping of a few buds down across quite a few stocks at around 2.50 ish pm...
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dragonboy76
Master |
25-Oct-2016 15:31
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
OIL COUNTERS KENA DUMP AFTER EZRA SAGA BETTER STEER CLEAR OF HIGH DEBT COUNTER FIRST. ANYTIME CAN SPELL TROUBLE. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
cupdub
Member |
11-Oct-2016 21:27
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Pump and dump? Or something brewing with their osvs? Vested for a gamble at 0.72 |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
johnng
Supreme |
05-Oct-2016 19:43
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
WHY NO QUERRY when drop from 10cents... |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||