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beginners Veteran	10-Aug-2013 16:04        beginners About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi all bros & expert here. Not vested yet. One thing I don't understand is NOL has been in lost for years. But still alot of ppl still interested in this counter? Is there any mean or hidden reason? Thks.
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sgng123 Supreme	10-Aug-2013 15:14        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yup hopefully house traders who hedge on ship would cover their sell position and buy back shares since the downside tail risk mostly reduced due to better cost saving this year. But not going to go in till house traders had clear their position, still need real investors to buy into ship  , not  some house traders who trying to buy low sell high hedging activities.
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Peter_Pan Supreme	10-Aug-2013 14:57        Peter_Pan About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Next week hopefully should see a surge in volume! Peter_Pan      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 18:43) Posted: Should see NOL go above 1.10 soon.
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sgng123 Supreme	09-Aug-2013 11:18        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	China trade data are out, july export rises 5.1% yoy beating expectation 2% and import up 10% crushing expectation of 1%. Inflation remained steady at 2.7%. World factory resumed operation after slowing down in 1H 13, might indicate pick up in demand for manufacturing good in coming months as more raw materials are imported to produce goods. Soon ship would be even more cost competitive than the big players due to investment in very fuel efficient new ships being delivered. 19 out of 34 being delivered up to june with 5 in second half and 10 in 2014, 19 ships already lowered operating cost from ~2500(2012 fiscal report ) to below 2300 ( reverse calculation done by me for 2Q13) that is like chopping 200 per FEU in a matter of 6 months not to mention more cost savings are still in the way due to chartered ship retiring this year and oil price heading lower this year. All pointed to a very significant lowering of operating cost, mine personal view is it would hit 2200 by end of year or even lower if drastic cut is being implement. this meant ship can survive in the most extreme global condition ( Great Financial Recess, average  rate =  2250). When economy recovered ( hopefully next year ), rate would recover to normal and this would boost ship earning.
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CSH123 Member	09-Aug-2013 10:10        CSH123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yup thank you for all the inputs Blastoff      ( Date: 09-Aug-2013 09:41) Posted: Thanks for your constant updates & views. :) sgng123      ( Date: 08-Aug-2013 14:58) Posted: Let see how ship performed next Monday, if BB go in then it time to punt again. From previous result for ship, when Big Europe GRI got through normally every region rate also move together resulting in improving average freight rate for ship. In April 2012 when Europe 750 GRI got thorough NOL average freight rate jumped from 2420 to 2650 a 200 FEU improvement. Hope this time round the increase would be bigger as the big  GRI 900 happen in peak season period.
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Blastoff Elite	09-Aug-2013 09:41        Blastoff About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks for your constant updates & views. :) sgng123      ( Date: 08-Aug-2013 14:58) Posted: Let see how ship performed next Monday, if BB go in then it time to punt again. From previous result for ship, when Big Europe GRI got through normally every region rate also move together resulting in improving average freight rate for ship. In April 2012 when Europe 750 GRI got thorough NOL average freight rate jumped from 2420 to 2650 a 200 FEU improvement. Hope this time round the increase would be bigger as the big  GRI 900 happen in peak season period.
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sgng123 Supreme	08-Aug-2013 14:58        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let see how ship performed next Monday, if BB go in then it time to punt again. From previous result for ship, when Big Europe GRI got through normally every region rate also move together resulting in improving average freight rate for ship. In April 2012 when Europe 750 GRI got thorough NOL average freight rate jumped from 2420 to 2650 a 200 FEU improvement. Hope this time round the increase would be bigger as the big  GRI 900 happen in peak season period.
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Rosesyrup Master	08-Aug-2013 13:59        Rosesyrup About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly."
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Company=> result for the holding company ONLY Group=> Company + Result from all subsidiaries (> =50% stakes)   Anyway, in my personal opinion, time is almost ripe to enter NOL. alexsmith      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 23:41) Posted: If you are looking at the balance sheet, you would see there are two columns over there. One column contains the breakdown for " Group" and the other one for " Company" ? What is the difference between " Group" and " Company" ? If somebody knows, please elaborate more. Tq.
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sgng123 Supreme	08-Aug-2013 10:20        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don bother with data whether group or company, in the end they just take the lesser which is the group value. The current shipping situation is a repeat of Apr 2012 where similar big GRI of 750 - 900 get through and everyone maintain carrier discipline and keep monthly GRI going. In 2012 the GRI frenzy keep going till Sep  with the peak at Jul when the SCFI is at 1500, Europe rate  3800 and transpacific at 2800. As expected according to report, capacity taken out of Europe and demand/supply balanced out, Sep GRI coming on both Europe / Transpacific most likely 500/ 400. If 2H rate recovery follow 2012 pattern, SCFI might hit another record high and Europe/Transpacific might see record high broken again. All these is all about carriers discipline to keep rate high and demand/supply balance, the real demand had not come yet most likely next year when US / Europe recovers. If real demand come back, prepare for very fat reward for long time ship investors due to very competitive cost structure achieved in trough years, 800 mil yearly profit is not a dream any more lol.
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alexsmith Member	07-Aug-2013 23:41        alexsmith About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If you are looking at the balance sheet, you would see there are two columns over there. One column contains the breakdown for " Group" and the other one for " Company" ? What is the difference between " Group" and " Company" ? If somebody knows, please elaborate more. Tq.
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sgng123 Supreme	07-Aug-2013 23:34        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Kim Eng expected NOL to post loss of 160M in 2Q, most likely they had to upgrade stock after today better result.
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sgng123 Supreme	07-Aug-2013 22:49        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	logistic net earning for 2Q is 10M take that out of equation, slot cost = 2315- ( 27/ 0.7) =2276. Not much difference I leave out logistic cos the contribution from it is too small compare to the huge profit/loss posed by liners. Logistic contribution to NOL is a joke cannot make enough to pay the tax for the whole group, might as well sell away the port/terminal to gather cash. Cash is king and having lot of it is good for company. Those port and terminals owned by APL can fetched 850M - 1Billion according to some article I saw earlier in Llord. slot cost before expense for liner might go down to 2200 in 3Q due to more charters retired, might be even lower if oil dropped to US100.
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Hawkeye Master	07-Aug-2013 22:48        Hawkeye About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL is the most competitive and " profitable" shipping line operating out of Asia Pacific. So improvement in 2Q2013 results shows improvement in Shipping out of Asia Pacific recovery is Imminent. Wahahahahahahah !!!! Haaahahahahahah!!!!! Dividend_Warrior      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 21:54) Posted: Wahahahahaha!!! ynnek1267      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 19:33) Posted: ???? Still losing money... Good????
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pseudo Member	07-Aug-2013 22:10        pseudo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	even if calculate EBITDA still wrong... there is no 37M. Liner only 24M. shouldnt include logistic result in picture. sgng123      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 21:48) Posted: assuming slot cost is 2262,  so to get core earning u need to 2315 - 2262 = 53 per FEU. To get  net earning  need to multiple it by 0.7 mil FEU = 53 X 0.7 = 37M then u can start to deduct whatever expenses. I am calculating the slot cost before any other expenses, to breakeven u need to earn at least 100 Per FEU above 2262 that is 2362. But again second half of 2013 would get lot of cost saving which  might lower this slot cost further. pseudo      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 19:45) Posted: Wrong calculation for slot cost. U should be using just liner result not liner + logistics. And should be using ebit not ebitda. Ships are not free
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sgng123 Supreme	07-Aug-2013 21:57        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good thing about 2Q result is NOL cost of operating finally catching up with the low rate environment, just need 1 more quarter of cost saving then can breakeven in super low rate environment. 3Q rate is recovering nicely from 2Q depth, so most likely the key is how much saving and rate restoration can boost the profit. Most of charters ships are going to retire this year, enjoys the cost saving.
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Dividend_Warrior Senior	07-Aug-2013 21:54        Dividend_Warrior About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wahahahahaha!!! ynnek1267      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 19:33) Posted: ???? Still losing money... Good????
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sgng123 Supreme	07-Aug-2013 21:48        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	assuming slot cost is 2262,  so to get core earning u need to 2315 - 2262 = 53 per FEU. To get  net earning  need to multiple it by 0.7 mil FEU = 53 X 0.7 = 37M then u can start to deduct whatever expenses. I am calculating the slot cost before any other expenses, to breakeven u need to earn at least 100 Per FEU above 2262 that is 2362. But again second half of 2013 would get lot of cost saving which  might lower this slot cost further. pseudo      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 19:45) Posted: Wrong calculation for slot cost. U should be using just liner result not liner + logistics. And should be using ebit not ebitda. Ships are not free. sgng123      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 19:11) Posted: I did a reverse calculation on ship operating cost for 2Q, 2Q average rate = 2315 Core earning before tax etc = 37M ( yes NOL reported a positive core earning after the hellish rate plunge in 2Q) Volume carried = 0.7Million FEU Operating cost = 2315 - ( 37/0.7) = 2262
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ynnek1267 Master	07-Aug-2013 21:28        ynnek1267 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lol.... CSH123      ( Date: 07-Aug-2013 21:22) Posted: 963 posts from 25/11/2012 without any FA knowledge..u can really wahaha alot
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CSH123 Member	07-Aug-2013 21:22        CSH123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	963 posts from 25/11/2012 without any FA knowledge..u can really wahaha alot
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ynnek1267 Master	07-Aug-2013 20:59        ynnek1267 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I come here and talk rubbish, song bo. Wahahahaha!!!!! Check yourselves of all the maturity date of NOL issue bond and notes. Soon, someone will come and burst the bubble.
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