September 08, 2014 - 10:42:27 PDT

Hold, Fold, Or Be Bold? - Jeff Clark, Casey Research

This transition must have consequences for the US dollar--which signals we should remain bold with our Gold investments. Read More

9/8/2014 5:14:18 PM By: Ted Prince

 

GOLD SLIPS AS DOLLAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN

The  Gold price is down  again today as the U.S. dollar continues to rally.  Even as disappointing payroll data from Friday gave reason to pause among some investors, geopolitical turmoil seems to be temporarily quelled leaving little available to motivate higher Precious Metals prices.  " It' s the stronger dollar driving the price, but although Friday' s non-farm payrolls took the market by surprise, gold managed to close only around $1,271," MKS SA head of trading Afshin Nabavi said.  Gold could receive some support from intensifying conflict overseas.  Investors continue to eye developments between pro-Russian rebels and Ukraine to see if the current ceasefire will hold. 

U.S.  stocks fell from their all-time high  today as declines among energy companies weighed on equities indexes following a five-week rally.  " You have five weeks of S& P growth, we may be in the overbought territory," Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist RW Baird & Co., said. " You generally don' t continue to grow forever."   Low volatility continues to plague markets as many investors await new policy directives from the Federal Reserve and remain leery of a potential correction following such a significant rally.

At 6:13 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,258.60 Up $3.30
• Silver, $19.10 Up $0.10

9/8/2014 8:06:11 AM By: Ryan Schwimmer

 

GEOPOLITICS, DISAPPOINTING DATA NOT BOOSTING GOLD

The Gold price is slightly lower in morning trading, which is confusing to analysts who are accustomed to Gold finding support in geopolitical tensions and disappointing economic data. Edward Meir of INTL FCStone said, " Curiously, geopolitical tensions do not seem to be providing it with much of a bid, and we suspect that this is because the apparent political upheavals are  not impacting the global equity or bond markets  other than to cause them to rally."

Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian attempted to  shed some light on this topic, as he said, " If you look at what happened to long-term unemployment, down by 192,000 to 3 million, ... if you look at the improvement in the unemployment rate, that was genuine. It wasn' t due to a fall in participation rate." El-Erian went on to predict the Fed&rsquo s big upcoming moves. " My baseline for the Fed is they exit QE completely by October. The first rate hike will probably come in the middle of next year. The balance of risk is [the rate hike] comes slightly earlier rather than later."

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,266.20, Down $2.10.
• Silver, $19.22, Up $0.05.

9/5/2014 12:10:01 PM By: Ted Prince

 

GOLD STEADY DESPITE WEAK JOBS DATA

Gold is trading near even levels today even as last month' s government payroll reports showed the fewest number of jobs added for all of 2014.  " Previous data had suggested the economy was gaining traction, but today' s number is a bit of a disappointment, and the Fed may have to maintain lower interest rates," Chris Gaffney, the senior market strategist at EverBank Wealth Management, said. " This is a good number for gold."     Gold remains up 5.3 percent year-to-date  as skirmishes in the Middle East and tension in Ukraine has bolstered the safe-haven demand for Precious Metals.  Employment remains a key factor in determining the future of U.S. monetary policy.  Poor jobs numbers could prolong quantitative easing measures and keep domestic lending rates low for longer-than-expected. 

U.S. stocks are slightly higher today but several sessions of losses could cause the S& P 500 to realize its first weekly decline in one month.    Sluggish job creation data  is causing some trepidation among equities investors today as investors weigh the strength of U.S. economic expansion.  " There has been an accumulation of positive surprises coming out of macro data so the jobs report runs counter to that," Gary Pzegeo, who helps oversee $25.4 billion at Atlantic Trust in Boston, said. " The underlying direction of monetary policy in different parts of the world is shifting. That could be a source of volatility and uncertainty."   Many analysts and retail investors alike are expecting heightened volatility across multiple markets as the U.S. summer months come to an end and trading volumes looks to increase. 

At 1:09 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,267.80, Up $0.30.
• Silver, $19.17, Up $0.02.

9/5/2014 8:04:51 AM By: Ryan Schwimmer

 

DISAPPOINTING JOBS REPORT BOOSTS GOLD

A largely disappointing number of  jobs were created  in August, allowing the Gold price to recover from some losses incurred earlier in the week. The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 142,000 jobs to the economy. Many economists had expected a level near 228,000 or more. U.S. stock futures dipped on the news, pointing towards a lower open for Wall Street.

Some investors were surprised that yesterday' s announcement of  monetary policy easing  in Europe didn' t have more of a positive effect on Gold. UBS said in a note this morning, " It would have to take more aggressive action from the ECB, which is likely to come alongside a sharp deterioration in euro zone growth, for Gold to benefit significantly. In this scenario, concerns on weaker growth could potentially reactivate physical demand in Europe, should the fear-trade gain traction."

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,269.60, Up $2.10.
• Silver, $19.11, Down $0.03.

September 04, 2014 - 16:38:58 PDT

Long Cycles And Trend Changes - Gold Price, Dollar, S& P500

there is a growing global movement away from the use of the dollar in global trade, led by China & Russia, & tha... read more

9/4/2014 4:25:07 PM By: Ted Prince

 

ECB POLICY WEIGHS ON METALS AS GOLD SUPPLY COULD SEE SHORTAGE

Strength in the U.S. dollar has once again marginalized the demand for bullion as the greenback climbed to its highest level since July 2013.  The yellow metal was in positive territory until news from Europe revealed plans by the European Central Bank to cut interest rates and begin an asset purchase program in an effort to stimulate the region&rsquo s lagging economy.    However, some experts are downplaying the significance of this endeavor as it relates to Precious Metals prices.  " Yes, today people are excited, but how many positive jolts can the world take from another central bank lowering interest rates before people get immune to that,&rdquo Jorge Beristain, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG, said. 

Precious Metals continue to tread water inside a relatively slim trading range since last year&rsquo s massive pullback.  Though improvement in the domestic economy and an ongoing stock have lured investors away from safe-haven investments like Gold and Silver, some experts believe an impending shortage in Gold supply could force the yellow metal higher in the near future.  With lower prices, new exploration of the metal has slowed and a general tightening of the sector has resulted in a lack of new Gold deposits.  With less money being spent to fund fewer projects, Gold is still being extracted at 1.5 times the expected depletion rate.  Supply concerns should be noted as most Precious Metals investors possess a long-term investment strategy for their Gold holdings.

At 5 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,262.70, Down $8.60.
• Silver, $19.09, Down $0.10.

9/4/2014 8:11:46 AM By: Ryan Schwimmer

 

ECB RATE CUTS, JOBS REPORT PRESSURE GOLD

Gold and Silver prices gave up small gains after the release of Automatic Data Processing' s monthly U.S.  private-sector jobs report. Though the report showed that fewer jobs than expected were added to the economy in August, the level of 204,000 was positive enough to boost the U.S. dollar' s strength. The U.S. Labor Department' s employment report will be released Friday morning, and is expected to show an increase of 226,000 jobs added in August versus 209,000 in July.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced rate cuts to  new all-time lows  this morning, driving the value of the euro down and further pressuring the Gold price. Though quantitative easing is normally a bullish factor for Gold, currency trade has been a major player lately. When the euro falls, and the dollar rises, downward pressure is added to Gold however, HSBC noted that " Gold is  likely to be more influenced  by U.S unemployment data due at the end of the week and the general direction of the dollar" than the ECB moves.

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold $1,270.70, Down $0.60
• Silver $19.23, Up $0.05

9/3/2014 4:14:46 PM By: Paul Stevens

 

METALS CONTINUE TO SEARCH FOR DIRECTION   

Precious Metal prices continue to rise through afternoon trading as investors monitor news outlets for direction.  As traders prepare for the release of U.S. employment data Friday, some are looking at the recent Beige Book, or Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, for news on the economy.  The report states, " Reports from the [12] Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity has expanded since the previous Beige Book report however, none of the Districts pointed to a distinct shift in the overall pace of growth."

The U.S. dollar is beginning to decline after three days of consecutive gains. Talks of a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia have helped ease tensions in the region.  Masafumi Takada, a New York-based director at BNP Paribas SA, said, " Headlines about a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire are definitely positive for the euro. Also, the market has been accumulating long U.S.-dollar positions lately, and there&rsquo s some position-adjustment liquidation ahead of the [European Central Bank] tomorrow and nonfarm payrolls on Friday."

At 5:13 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold price, $1,271.20 Up $5.20
• Silver price, $19.20 Up $0.05

9/3/2014 8:26:59 AM By: Ryan Schwimmer

 

GOLD FLAT AMID RUSSIA-UKRAINE NEWS

The Gold price is mostly flat, hovering near a 2 1/2 month low, in early morning trade. Gold seems  stuck in the middle  between a firmer dollar, which typically drives the price lower, and geopolitical tensions, which typically drive the price higher. The situation between Russia and Ukraine appears to be easing, though there is some confusion. Ukraine said it reached agreement on a permanent ceasefire with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but as it turns out, Russia had rejected that deal and Ukraine clarified that its president was working on a deal with Putin.

U.S. stock futures are pointing toward  a positive start for Wall Street, thanks to hopes of a ceasefire. Investor focus will also be on the release of economic data surrounding factory orders and new vehicle sales, both of which are expected to be positive. This could put pressure on Gold however, deterioration of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine could swing sentiment the other way.

At 9 a.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold, $1,267.70, Up $1.70.
• Silver, $19.19, Up $0.04.

9/2/2014 3:55:03 PM By: Ted Prince

 

INVESTORS AWAIT ECB MONETARY POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT

U.S. manufacturing data showed output growing at its fastest pace in three years today.  Many investors took this news as a sign of continued growth in the domestic economy and demand for safe-haven assets like Gold was temporarily quelled.  Along with ongoing strength among equities markets and the fear of an interest rate hike in the near future, Gold has come under pressure to begin September.  " Good economic data and concern about the U.S. raising rates is keeping gold under pressure," Tommy Capalbo, a broker at Newedge Group, said. " The political concerns seem to have taken a back seat for now."  

The S& P 500 was able to hold above 2,000 today as U.S. stocks take a breather following last week' s rally.  Equities investors and Gold bugs alike are focused on the outcome of this week' s European Central Bank meeting.  " There is a lot of conversation around Mario Draghi doing some sort of quantitative easing in light of the softer-than-expected European data," Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, said.  Speculation surrounding loose central bank monetary policy has caused a great deal of volatility among Precious Metals in past years. 

At 5 p.m. (ET), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

• Gold price, $1,267.10 Down $21.30
• Silver price, $19.19 Down $0.30