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Latest Forum Topics / StarHub    Last:1.01 --  Post Reply
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Tommy12356
Master
10-Jun-2017 17:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		When market crash, telcom is safe

happyharvest      ( Date: 10-Jun-2017 15:19) Posted:

the entry of the TPG is to support the population growth of 10mil eventually. By then, the govt would justify for it with all the infrastruture in place.

chengwh1      ( Date: 10-Jun-2017 14:18) Posted:

I caught the following write-up about Starhub. I' ve always wondered if I should continue holding Starhub, or cut loss. The following write-up gives me some ideas on the ability of Starhub to continue paying our distributions.

In a defensive industry, sports strong credit metrics

As Singapore' s second-largest telco, Starhub is generally seen as a defensive " cash cow" , generating sizable levels of operating cash flow each year. We note that the company is priced on its cash-generative abilities rather than on its asset base, which means the company' s debt-to-equity of 507% (as of end-Dec 16) is generally not a good representation of the firm' s financial health.

To put Starhub' s financials in perspective, the company generated sizable operating cash flows to the tune of S$604.4m and S$637.2m for FY16 and FY15 respectively (before taxes), helping the company to maintain a S$345-346m annual dividend payout to shareholders over the past two financial years. Despite sporting a S$987.5m debt load (as of end-Mar 17), the company paid just S$25.1m in interest costs last year &ndash interest coverage was 27.6X, indicating a very strong ability to service debt. As another measure of financial strength, net-debt to EBITDA (trailing 12-month, as of end-Mar 17) was 0.88X, which suggests that the company can retire all its debt based on operations for less than a year (the end-Mar 17 net debt position was S$586.3m, while FY16 EBITDA was S$690.1m).

While it is unlikely that Starhub would raise S$1b from the issue, even raising such a sizable amount (at a higher 5% p.a. rate) would add just S$50m to interest costs per year. While this would triple interest costs (from S$25.1m in FY16), this would be a " drop in the ocean" relative to the S$600+m operating cash flow generated each year by the company and would not have a significant impact on debt servicing ability (the company' s interest coverage is not expected to deteriorate meaningfully with the issuance of the new perpetuals). We would acknowledge that a key risk going forward is the impact of new entrant (TPG) which could hurt profitability of incumbent telcos, although from a bondholders' perspective, the company has a sizable dividend (~S$345m) which it can cut to conserve cash if necessary.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

In short, to make things simple Starhub can...

1) generate cash of S$600m + every year before TPG comes to bite off part of the mobile cash income.
2) payout dividend amount of S$345m every year.

Payout Ratio is only S$(345/600) = 58%. Hence

1) Why do we say the dividend may not be sustainable going forward ?

2) Does Starhub need to borrow to give out dvds ? It' s generating almost twice of the cashflow required to pay out dvds.

3) With the entrance of TPG, how much of the operating cashflow be knocked-off ?
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happyharvest
Elite
10-Jun-2017 15:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		the entry of the TPG is to support the population growth of 10mil eventually. By then, the govt would justify for it with all the infrastruture in place.

chengwh1      ( Date: 10-Jun-2017 14:18) Posted:

I caught the following write-up about Starhub. I' ve always wondered if I should continue holding Starhub, or cut loss. The following write-up gives me some ideas on the ability of Starhub to continue paying our distributions.

In a defensive industry, sports strong credit metrics

As Singapore' s second-largest telco, Starhub is generally seen as a defensive " cash cow" , generating sizable levels of operating cash flow each year. We note that the company is priced on its cash-generative abilities rather than on its asset base, which means the company' s debt-to-equity of 507% (as of end-Dec 16) is generally not a good representation of the firm' s financial health.

To put Starhub' s financials in perspective, the company generated sizable operating cash flows to the tune of S$604.4m and S$637.2m for FY16 and FY15 respectively (before taxes), helping the company to maintain a S$345-346m annual dividend payout to shareholders over the past two financial years. Despite sporting a S$987.5m debt load (as of end-Mar 17), the company paid just S$25.1m in interest costs last year &ndash interest coverage was 27.6X, indicating a very strong ability to service debt. As another measure of financial strength, net-debt to EBITDA (trailing 12-month, as of end-Mar 17) was 0.88X, which suggests that the company can retire all its debt based on operations for less than a year (the end-Mar 17 net debt position was S$586.3m, while FY16 EBITDA was S$690.1m).

While it is unlikely that Starhub would raise S$1b from the issue, even raising such a sizable amount (at a higher 5% p.a. rate) would add just S$50m to interest costs per year. While this would triple interest costs (from S$25.1m in FY16), this would be a " drop in the ocean" relative to the S$600+m operating cash flow generated each year by the company and would not have a significant impact on debt servicing ability (the company' s interest coverage is not expected to deteriorate meaningfully with the issuance of the new perpetuals). We would acknowledge that a key risk going forward is the impact of new entrant (TPG) which could hurt profitability of incumbent telcos, although from a bondholders' perspective, the company has a sizable dividend (~S$345m) which it can cut to conserve cash if necessary.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

In short, to make things simple Starhub can...

1) generate cash of S$600m + every year before TPG comes to bite off part of the mobile cash income.
2) payout dividend amount of S$345m every year.

Payout Ratio is only S$(345/600) = 58%. Hence

1) Why do we say the dividend may not be sustainable going forward ?

2) Does Starhub need to borrow to give out dvds ? It' s generating almost twice of the cashflow required to pay out dvds.

3) With the entrance of TPG, how much of the operating cashflow be knocked-off ?
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chengwh1
Elite
10-Jun-2017 14:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I caught the following write-up about Starhub. I' ve always wondered if I should continue holding Starhub, or cut loss. The following write-up gives me some ideas on the ability of Starhub to continue paying our distributions.

In a defensive industry, sports strong credit metrics

As Singapore' s second-largest telco, Starhub is generally seen as a defensive " cash cow" , generating sizable levels of operating cash flow each year. We note that the company is priced on its cash-generative abilities rather than on its asset base, which means the company' s debt-to-equity of 507% (as of end-Dec 16) is generally not a good representation of the firm' s financial health.

To put Starhub' s financials in perspective, the company generated sizable operating cash flows to the tune of S$604.4m and S$637.2m for FY16 and FY15 respectively (before taxes), helping the company to maintain a S$345-346m annual dividend payout to shareholders over the past two financial years. Despite sporting a S$987.5m debt load (as of end-Mar 17), the company paid just S$25.1m in interest costs last year &ndash interest coverage was 27.6X, indicating a very strong ability to service debt. As another measure of financial strength, net-debt to EBITDA (trailing 12-month, as of end-Mar 17) was 0.88X, which suggests that the company can retire all its debt based on operations for less than a year (the end-Mar 17 net debt position was S$586.3m, while FY16 EBITDA was S$690.1m).

While it is unlikely that Starhub would raise S$1b from the issue, even raising such a sizable amount (at a higher 5% p.a. rate) would add just S$50m to interest costs per year. While this would triple interest costs (from S$25.1m in FY16), this would be a " drop in the ocean" relative to the S$600+m operating cash flow generated each year by the company and would not have a significant impact on debt servicing ability (the company' s interest coverage is not expected to deteriorate meaningfully with the issuance of the new perpetuals). We would acknowledge that a key risk going forward is the impact of new entrant (TPG) which could hurt profitability of incumbent telcos, although from a bondholders' perspective, the company has a sizable dividend (~S$345m) which it can cut to conserve cash if necessary.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

In short, to make things simple Starhub can...

1) generate cash of S$600m + every year before TPG comes to bite off part of the mobile cash income.
2) payout dividend amount of S$345m every year.

Payout Ratio is only S$(345/600) = 58%. Hence

1) Why do we say the dividend may not be sustainable going forward ?

2) Does Starhub need to borrow to give out dvds ? It' s generating almost twice of the cashflow required to pay out dvds.

3) With the entrance of TPG, how much of the operating cashflow be knocked-off ?
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chengwh1
Elite
30-May-2017 12:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		They are focussing on the Enterprise Fixed sector.

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 29-May-2017 17:41) Posted:

Telephone/Mobile services - kenna new competition.

Television service - kenna many new technologies like Netflix and Amazon.

What other business are there left for them to grow on ?
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arkan1111
Veteran
29-May-2017 20:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		M1 down to 1.8 rebounced back to 2.24, Singtel just hangs around between 2.7 to 2.76 only Starhub down and down from 3.9 to now 2.7.    May be open coffee shops in its outlets like starbuds, earns some coffe money for next year share awards  without any performance attached again.

GuavaXF30      ( Date: 29-May-2017 17:41) Posted:

Telephone/Mobile services - kenna new competition.

Television service - kenna many new technologies like Netflix and Amazon.

What other business are there left for them to grow on ?
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GuavaXF30
Elite
29-May-2017 17:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Telephone/Mobile services - kenna new competition.

Television service - kenna many new technologies like Netflix and Amazon.

What other business are there left for them to grow on ?
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arkan1111
Veteran
29-May-2017 16:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Haha, Now M1 = 2.25, starhub = 2.7.  Soon Starhub= 2.2 M1 still 2.25. M1 = second biggest telco in Singapore. 

chengwh1      ( Date: 29-May-2017 16:20) Posted:

Second biggest telco in Singapore,... not too worried here,... M1 is more worrying....

soundblaster      ( Date: 27-May-2017 22:12) Posted:

--- Post Removed by User ---
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chengwh1
Elite
29-May-2017 16:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Second biggest telco in Singapore,... not too worried here,... M1 is more worrying....

soundblaster      ( Date: 27-May-2017 22:12) Posted:

--- Post Removed by User ---
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happyharvest
Elite
27-May-2017 22:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Same like intel paying much higher for mobileye. we shall know if it is worth it in the future. Market will react next week.

arkan1111      ( Date: 27-May-2017 22:03) Posted:

Based on the latest available audited financial statements of ASTL for the financial year ended 31 March 2017, the net asset value and the net tangible asset value represented by the Sale Shares are S$6,045,127 respectively. The consideration of S$19,380,000 for the Proposed Acquisition,   representing 51 per cent​ of  ASTL.  Is it worth? 


happyharvest      ( Date: 27-May-2017 16:01) Posted:

i still see a bounce is coming. the next couple of weeks will give some clue
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/starhub-to-acquire-51-stake-in-accel-systems-technologies-for-s194
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happyharvest
Elite
27-May-2017 22:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		IOT could be the next big thing and cyber security will be highly valued in the future. I think starhub is preparing for the next big thing where they could provide solution to the retailer and corporate.

chengwh1      ( Date: 27-May-2017 17:42) Posted:

Tq happy,...I' m a holder too, but I don' t think holding majority stake in a cyber security company is really going to affect the revenue much. And talking abt revenue, the mix is too highly skewed towards mobile, which is risky. Mobile contributes 50% of the revenue pie in this mix,....hmm,...

happyharvest      ( Date: 27-May-2017 16:01) Posted:

i still see a bounce is coming. the next couple of weeks will give some clue
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/starhub-to-acquire-51-stake-in-accel-systems-technologies-for-s194
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arkan1111
Veteran
27-May-2017 22:03     
 
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 Alert Admin
Based on the latest available audited financial statements of ASTL for the financial year ended 31 March 2017, the net asset value and the net tangible asset value represented by the Sale Shares are S$6,045,127 respectively. The consideration of S$19,380,000 for the Proposed Acquisition,   representing 51 per cent​ of  ASTL.  Is it worth? 


happyharvest      ( Date: 27-May-2017 16:01) Posted:

i still see a bounce is coming. the next couple of weeks will give some clue
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/starhub-to-acquire-51-stake-in-accel-systems-technologies-for-s194m

chengwh1      ( Date: 27-May-2017 12:35) Posted:

Sorry but we don' t have a bounce in the SP till now,... however, Starhub has just announced they have bought into a cyber security firm. Price is holding at X.700,....
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chengwh1
Elite
27-May-2017 17:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Tq happy,...I' m a holder too, but I don' t think holding majority stake in a cyber security company is really going to affect the revenue much. And talking abt revenue, the mix is too highly skewed towards mobile, which is risky. Mobile contributes 50% of the revenue pie in this mix,....hmm,...

happyharvest      ( Date: 27-May-2017 16:01) Posted:

i still see a bounce is coming. the next couple of weeks will give some clue
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/starhub-to-acquire-51-stake-in-accel-systems-technologies-for-s194m

chengwh1      ( Date: 27-May-2017 12:35) Posted:

Sorry but we don' t have a bounce in the SP till now,... however, Starhub has just announced they have bought into a cyber security firm. Price is holding at X.700,....
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happyharvest
Elite
27-May-2017 16:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		i still see a bounce is coming. the next couple of weeks will give some clue
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/starhub-to-acquire-51-stake-in-accel-systems-technologies-for-s194m

chengwh1      ( Date: 27-May-2017 12:35) Posted:

Sorry but we don' t have a bounce in the SP till now,... however, Starhub has just announced they have bought into a cyber security firm. Price is holding at X.700,....
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chengwh1
Elite
27-May-2017 12:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Sorry but we don' t have a bounce in the SP till now,... however, Starhub has just announced they have bought into a cyber security firm. Price is holding at X.700,....
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happyharvest
Elite
11-May-2017 14:08     
 
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 Alert Admin

From my TA, it is pointing to a bounce.

pool100      ( Date: 09-May-2017 11:58) Posted:



From TA and price action and along with all the institutional reports, it' s all pointing downwards.

Today it broke key level at 2.76.

More downside to come.

happyharvest      ( Date: 08-May-2017 21:35) Posted:



possible bounce above $3 too


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john_ric
Supreme
11-May-2017 11:26     
 
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 Alert Admin

ya lah.

cd means buy and can get divid

xd , x= exit, means buy but cannot get divid.

zobo123      ( Date: 09-May-2017 17:45) Posted:

CD is cum dividends. XD is exclude dividends.
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chengwh1
Elite
11-May-2017 10:38     
 
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 Alert Admin

Starhub is a counter that would not die,... what investors have to tolerate and to be able to stomach is the possible drop in the dpu, and how much will the dpu drop,... the way I look at it, another dividend ctr in a similar predicament is : Singpost. When the dividend cut news reached investors earlier this year, the price dropped rapidly. I sold away too.

Today : Singpost' s price has creeped back up, to the Sell Price I put in earlier. BUT : the dividend payout is still bad !
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TELANX86
Member
11-May-2017 10:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Going up. Those who has been patience. Cheers :)
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9hly99
Veteran
09-May-2017 17:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Despite a fourth Telco into the market， is more competition but the demand for wireless technology will continue to grow and that may mean the downside risk may be limited,..a strategic tie up with e commerce provider and diversification will cushion this impact.
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ranger109
Member
09-May-2017 17:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		😂 😂 😂

useless      ( Date: 09-May-2017 17:18) Posted:



Don' t anyhow give false info and mislead others.

Ex-date (XD) means anyone who is holding before today will be entitled to the dividend.

Anyone who buy  on XD  and onwards  will not be entitled. Hope this is clear.

 

sgtrader101      ( Date: 09-May-2017 11:50) Posted:

Today is Ex-date, meaning you buy or sell still entitled to the dividend of $0.04.
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