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SIA revived
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 23:18
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Each 1000 dollars invested at par value ($1) gets you 373 shares after ten years if SIA cannot afford to pay you in cash.  Now you can buy the 1000 MCBs at cost of $900 (instead of $1000) because it is trading at a discount. So this mean that effectively, you paid $2.41 per share. I calculate by dividing $900 by 373 shares. If SIA is trading at $5 in 2031, and if you want to sell your shares, you will make a profit of 373 shares * ($5.00 - $2.41). That is all. No more interest payments as there were paid in shares. Am I right Ligaya? and UIOP?
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Ligaya
Master |
18-Oct-2020 23:05
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so each MCB if converted is equal to 373 SIA shares at 0.90 / 0.373 (373 shares) is 2.40 after 10 years, if converted and SIA trading at $5 in 2030, you earn additional capital appreciation of $2.60 besides the 6% interest?
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 21:58
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I will further look at the so-called MCB tomorrow and report on it, as my family needs me now. They are very complex financial instruments, mind you. And the more complex they are, the more we should avoid them and go for more simple and direct ones like traditional senior bonds or preference and ordinary shares. Stay safe on roads, in COVID and away from complex financial instruments. Good nite. |
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 21:53
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Well said, we are only safe when everyone is. Just one unsafe person can bring everyone down. Never in any period since humanity inhabited the earth has just one person been so important to affect so many. We will guard against people coming from India. They look like they will be number one COVID cases soon. Immense suffering. I cannot imagine! I can only pray...
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Observers
Elite |
18-Oct-2020 21:48
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The thing with covid is nobody is safe until everyone is safe. So if India/US/Brazil want to continue with herd immunity, then it will only be safe when the vaccine is mass produced and rolled out to everyone in the world. And then we have to worry about mutations because countries that practise herd immunity is actually allowing the virus more opportunity to mutate. We have to be extra careful with arrivals from india in case there is a mutation of a variation of covid19 that normal covid test cannot detect. | ||||
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 21:44
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Be very careful here, everybody. We are talking of a bond here and not equity. So uiop writes about the price of the bond (currently 90 cents to a dollar) i.e. currently it is a discounted bond. But he confuses people when he talks about $2.40, which I do not think he is referring to the bond, but ' it' referring I think to SIA share price, or what? Please clarify. Thank you  
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Observers
Elite |
18-Oct-2020 21:42
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Buffet might call it early but he mostly calls it right. 
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 20:40
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In Singapore, yes, the fear is less and we are learning to cope with it longer term. But the fear is very real where the problem is not so contained. That is why I am pretty disturbed by the rising cases in other countries in the world and the number of deaths that may spike up very soon especially in the Northern Hemisphere. | ||||
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pasttime
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 20:37
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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by now the fear of virus has decreased a lot. even if no vaccine, or cure, people will slowly find a way to live with it. like wear mask is a norm. sick don' t go to work. work will may become more organized.  
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ss2017.
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 20:31
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Agree. Airlines industries have a lot of uncertainty even WB avoided them I heard.
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 20:22
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Sleep well only until mid-2021 only though. If you buy it after that, you may not sleep well anymore, I am afraid!
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ss2017.
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 19:43
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Consider at mid year 2021, buy it at a lower price or pay a bit more high premium to get it at a higher price, in that sense one can sleep very well. | ||||
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Ligaya
Master |
18-Oct-2020 19:39
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Agree we shld never underestimate this pandemic. The gist of my grapevine is national airline a symbol than a corporate icon.  Profits, game for the moment is over. The birds will not game over....yet Looks like market is not pricing a 5-yr Covid for the moment.   
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 18:56
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If you are not sure if you or anyone else is still here to take care of your business in 2030, then do not start one. Save your retirement funds and coffin capital in cash and not in airplanes, unless you want to be buried in one. It will be the grandest mausoleum one can ever get, better than Lenin, Mao Zedong and Kim Il-Sung' s. | ||||
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ffff152100ffff
Master |
18-Oct-2020 18:46
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2030 do not know will still around this world or not..So how ?
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Thiamm
Veteran |
18-Oct-2020 18:45
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Pasted below from some ...... Your $2.4 sounds interesting, care to share how you have computed on that?   Part 2 &ndash Rights Issue of Rights Mandatory Convertible Bonds (MCB) (raising $3.5 billion) The MCBs are more unique. I don&rsquo t think I&rsquo ve seen these ever being offered to retail investors, at least not in this debt cycle. The MCBs are pretty technical, so we&rsquo ll skip all the mumbo jumbo and go right into what it means. Imagine that you own $1000 of MCBs. These are zero coupon, so you&rsquo ll not get paid any interest (or coupon) each year. But these MCBs can be redeemed by SIA any time within 10 years. And on redemption date, they will pay you $1000 (being the principal) + an extra amount equivalent to the interest that would have been due on the bonds for the duration that you held it. And the interest is 4% for the first 4 years, 5% for year 5 to year 7, and 6% for year 8 to year 10. So basically, if SIA redeemed the bonds in year 4, you will get no interest payments for the first 4 years, but on redemption date you get a lump sum payment equivalent to $1117.166, which is the $1000 you put in originally, and $117.166 which is equivalent to the 4 years interest at 4% a year. If redeemed in Year 5 &ndash then SIA basically pays 5% a year to you, but as a lump sum at the end.  So no interest is payable by SIA every year, which is great because nobody knows when COVID19 goes away. This gives SIA lots of flexibility to repay the MCBs only when cash flow has recovered to a point where they are comfortable paying these off. What if SIA doesn&rsquo t have the cashflow to redeem the MCBs? Then in year 10, you still get paid a lump sum of $1,806.11, which is the $1000 principal and 10 years&rsquo worth of 6.0% coupons. Only difference is that instead of being paid in cash, you&rsquo ll be paid in SIA shares. So you will get the number of shares equivalent to $1,806.11 dollar value &ndash based on S$4.84 per Share (subject to adjustments). This works out to roughly 373 Shares per 1000 MCBs.
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 18:31
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If you have a good business proposal on how to make good use of the A-380 without going broke, you can borrow some, or else I lend you some. Just PM me. | ||||
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ffff152100ffff
Master |
18-Oct-2020 18:18
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I don' t have $1m, if have I will sure buy and make money...
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ffff152100ffff
Master |
18-Oct-2020 18:16
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buy and open let poeple act pilot or air  stewardess and collet $10 or $20 to take photo, or sell food to let people eat in this plane and etc etc etc many many can do it,,, very fast can collect the $1m back
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St.Maximus
Supreme |
18-Oct-2020 18:13
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Where to put it? In my garden?? Not big enough lah... Parking fees at the bone yard easily another 1 million a year. You can have it. |
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