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NOL

Lucky03
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09-Feb-2014 13:20

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Serious, leeeta ? Thanks for sharing. I feel that NOL does not warrant action based purely on technical analysis. It is a global phenomenon affecting the shipping industry and big question is whether 5 years of downturn has allowed some of them to digest and ready to turn around plus over capacity being adequately managed plus cost optimization put in place. We all know that this period coincide with US property burst and Europe financial crisis followed by deep recession and global economic contraction. If these factors have seen its worst and exhibiting signs of turning around, the picture can change dramatically. I'll give more emphasis to FA. Will watch closely the announcement on Feb 20.

leeeta ( Date: 09-Feb-2014 12:16) Posted:

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL): 9 February 2014, Sunday, 11.55am Singapore Time

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL): 9 February 2014, Sunday, 11.55am Singapore Time

Chart courtesy of Chartnexus.com

5 Main Points to Take Note as Below

1. Neptune Orient Lines, NOL, is a quality shipping company that Temasek has a stake in. Quality in the sense that it has quite a good management team which is highly capable. However good a company is, if the economic flow of tidal trends is strongly against it, it has very low probability defying the trends. In essence, NOL remains one of the good litmus indicators of the level of world economic activities.

2. NOL has Huge Descending Triangle within Long Term Downtrend:
Worldwide Financial Markets had 2 years 8 months of Escape Wave Rebounds, propelled mainly by technologies, banking/finance and properties (low interest environment), but world economic activities were far from satisfactory as hinted by the quality shipping line company. This highlights the below-average fundamentals in the economic structures worldwide. Something drastic has to happen to fundamentally change the economic structures worldwide (Example Western World has to produce more and Eastern World has to consume more).

3. NOL used 2 years and 8 months to adopt a wait-and-see approach and consolidate however, this consolidation is coming to an end.

4. Expected to break down $0.98-$1.025 Support Band and get resisted by $0.98-$1.025 Band for the next target of $0.49

5. The next wave of massive bearish volumes is expected to come soon. This massive selling volume will trigger the first real wave of margin call that had not been seen since 2008 financial crisis.

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leeeta
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09-Feb-2014 12:16

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Yells: "FA plus TA = Huat all the way."

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Neptune Orient Lines (NOL): 9 February 2014, Sunday, 11.55am Singapore Time

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL): 9 February 2014, Sunday, 11.55am Singapore Time

Chart courtesy of Chartnexus.com

5 Main Points to Take Note as Below

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Lucky03
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08-Feb-2014 22:12

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Although Spore may be a proxy to the trend of world cargo demand due to its dominant port status and transportation hub, what to look out for in the article is the indication of export growth attributed to global economic recovery.

NOL is a global company today and its business is directly correlated to global economic recover which will lead to global trade and hence global shipment traffic eventually.

Lucky03 ( Date: 08-Feb-2014 08:22) Posted:

Going to read more and more if such export growth story as the global economy recovers.

PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 08, 2014
Malaysia's December exports up 14%
Strong growth led by shipments to S-E Asia and increase in exports to China and Europe
BYS JAYASANKARAN [email protected]

ON THE RISE
Global economic recovery is buoying Malaysian exports to the point that they take up some of the slack from flagging domestic demand.
Kuala Lumpur
MALAYSIA'S exports surged 14 per cent in December from a year earlier, surpassing the street's prediction of 9 per cent and paving the way for a stronger-than-expected rise in gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2013.
The news will come as a relief for the administration of Prime Minister Najib Razak, as it indicates that the global economic recovery is buoying exports to the point that they take up some of the slack from flagging domestic demand.
Private investment is expected to remain reasonably robust this year, thanks to Mr Najib's Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), but domestic consumption could come off considerably. Inflation has surged owing to the government's programme to rationalise subsidies, which has crimped spending.

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Lucky03
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08-Feb-2014 17:14

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UOBKH Retail Market Monitor issued 6 Feb has a BUY call on NOL with the following comment - 'Despite the weaker-than-expected freight market in 3Q13, NOL still booked a net profit of US$20m in 3Q13 and its net profit was US$61m in 9M13. It's profitability on TP trade lane was well protected by a high exposure to contractual cargo and cost reduction measures, including fleet optimization.'

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Lucky03
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08-Feb-2014 08:22

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spore1
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07-Feb-2014 08:35

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yesterday closed with a doji + high vol. more likely to bounce up from here.

gold123 ( Date: 30-Jan-2014 09:45) Posted:

reaching the $1.00 soon. hv to be careful

New123 ( Date: 08-Jan-2014 10:55) Posted:

Started to move up. Looking gd to clear $1.11and go higher.

http://sporeonlines.blogspot.sg/2014/01/nol.html

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Lucky03
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07-Feb-2014 07:23

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Get ready for galloping !

PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 07, 2014
Shipping industry sees an end to five-year downturn

[SINGAPORE] The shipping industry is poised to emerge from its longest downturn in three decades, buoyed by an end to years of overcapacity that have depressed freight rates since the end of a shipping boom in 2008.
Dry cargo ships are likely to see the strongest recovery, say owners and analysts, as growth in bulk commodity cargoes such as iron ore and coal outpaces supply of new tonnage for the first time in seven years.
But tanker rates will also rise as fleet growth is slowing, while strategic oil reserve projects in China and India should boost already solid Asian demand.
The recovery will bring some respite to shipping firms that have endured years of losses as freight rates failed to cover costs. Global shipper TMT Group filed for bankruptcy protection last June, shortly after South Korea's STX Pan Ocean filed for court receivership, while Indonesian shipper PT Berlian Laju Tanker narrowly avoided bankruptcy.

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Lucky03
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06-Feb-2014 20:32

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Drewry Container Rate Benchmark, Feb. 5, 2014

The Drewry benchmark rate for shipping from Hong Kong to Los Angeles remained at $2,086 per 40-foot container for a fourth straight week in the week of Feb. 5.

?The firmness of spot rates reflect that Chinese New Year is now upon us, with the traditional slowdown of production output in Asia as workers join their families to celebrate the new year over the coming week,? said SeaIntel in this week?s Sunday Spotlight report. ?The sharp decline in output naturally affects the demand for container shipping, and carriers have over the past weeks been gradually curbing capacity through blank sailings, in an attempt balance supply and demand.?

?With CNY capacity still so much higher than previous years, we expect that carriers will attempt to adjust trans-Pacific capacity ?on-the-fly? in the coming weeks, omitting port calls, making dock calls for minor repairs and adjusting their services networks for the post-CNY period. Further, we also expect trans-Pacific rates to take a tumble over the coming weeks, as carriers scramble to fill their half-empty vessels, with whatever cargo that might be available," SeaIntel said.

The current rate is down 17.7 percent year-over-year, but is 10.6 percent or $200 higher than it was on Jan. 1 of this year. The rate has been at this level since the week of Jan. 15, when members of the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement launched the second stage of a two-stage rate increase.

In an attempt to build on the momentum of this recent general rate increase success, carriers in the TSA plan to increase Asia-U.S. rates by $300 per FEU, effective March 15, and are looking for a further May 1 increase separate from rate adjustments planned for 2014-15 contracts.

Drewry said in this week?s release that rates remained unchanged because of strong load factors due to cargo roll-overs. Drewry expects pricing to remain firm in the near future before the TSA member carriers attempt to lift rates in mid-March.

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spore1
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05-Feb-2014 08:28

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yest price of 99.5 cents & 1.00 was a gd entry pt for consideration for going long.It has managed to close 1.005. may see a slight movement up from here

gold123 ( Date: 30-Jan-2014 09:45) Posted:

reaching the $1.00 soon. hv to be careful

New123 ( Date: 08-Jan-2014 10:55) Posted:

Started to move up. Looking gd to clear $1.11and go higher.

http://sporeonlines.blogspot.sg/2014/01/nol.html

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Lucky03
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05-Feb-2014 08:20

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MARKETS
Pullback pain meter: Past stock drops give clues

Adam Shell, USA TODAY
26 minutes ago

Spencer Platt, Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
How far will stocks fall in the market's latest bout with fear and loathing? A look back at prior Wall Street downdrafts since the bull market began in March 2009 offers clues -- and some comfort to worried investors if history serves as an accurate guide.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index's 5.8% drop from its Jan. 15 record high of 1848.38 through Monday's close marks its 19th pullback of 5% or more in the current bull, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Monday's 2.3% drop was the index's worst start to February since 1933.

While the plunge has been quick and violent, the decline is still below the average 8.2% pullback the S&P has suffered in its five-year uptrend. So there's a good chance the pain meter will ramp up some more. But the bulk of the market rout could also be behind us, as well.

TUESDAY STOCKS: How markets are doing

T-NOTE YIELD: Probably in 2%-4% range a while

The pullback could last longer, recent history says. Heading into today's trading session, the downturn has lasted 20 days, less than the 25-day average for 5%-plus pullbacks since March 2009, Bespoke says.

Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, thinks the current pullback will end before the market suffers a double-digit percentage decline. The S&P 500's last official 10% correction was a 19.4% drop that ended on Oct. 3, 2011, Bespoke says.

Kleintop doesn't believe the turmoil and weakness in emerging markets will cause a sharp deterioration in global economic growth. Nor will it "spread and tip the world back into a global recession," he says.

Kleintop also downplays the ISM's weak reading on U.S. manufacturing in January, citing nasty weather as a main reason for the biggest drop in eight months. He notes that four of the five other January manufacturing surveys (from regions including Philadelphia, New York, Kansas City and Dallas) all rose.

"We think the underlying trend is still a stronger economy in 2014 and think the data will soon begin to bear this out as the weather distortions fade," Kleintop says.

So what do investors do? Kleintop says, "Buy the dip."

"We are buyers on this 5% dip," he says. "With all areas of the stock market down in our portfolios we are adding small-caps and broad stock market exposure."

But patience might be a better strategy, especially if you believe a full-fledged correction of 10% is in the cards.

That can't be ruled out, says Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics at California State University Channel Islands.

"A 10% correction is likely as the emerging markets rattle (investors)," says Sohn.

He believes the U.S. market is being weighed down by a variety of factors, including emerging market troubles, a nearly 15% drop in Japanese stocks sparked by a rising yen, and the Federal Reserve's shift to a less accommodative monetary policy.

"In Japan, the yen has appreciated in the new year, causing the Nikkei 225 to fall significantly," says Sohn. "This has a negative effect on the U.S. market, where the sentiment is already fragile. In the U.S., earnings are better than expected, but the 'tapering' by the Fed is weighing on the market. There is (also) a sentiment that U.S. stocks have outpaced the fundamentals and are due for a modest correction, which would be good for the market in the long run."

There have been just two corrections of 10% or more since the bull market began.

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Lucky03
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05-Feb-2014 08:12

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I believe NOL has the same concern as you. That's why they sell NOL building to lower borrowing cost and step up effort to cut cost and increase efficiency over the last 1+ year. Let's see their report card when they release their annual result on Feb 20.

Teochew ( Date: 05-Feb-2014 07:42) Posted:

Don't forget the increase of operating cost is even higher than the increase of shipping rates. In addition, the bank interest rate is also going up.

Azzaramich ( Date: 04-Feb-2014 11:54) Posted:

All signs are pointing to economic recovery which would lead to more trade and better shipping rates. What is more important is that NOL reports an improvement in shipping rates rather than profits. Shipping is still the most cost efficient of transport for global trade, and it will remain so for a long long time.

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Teochew
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05-Feb-2014 07:42

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Don't forget the increase of operating cost is even higher than the increase of shipping rates. In addition, the bank interest rate is also going up.

Azzaramich ( Date: 04-Feb-2014 11:54) Posted:

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Lucky03
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05-Feb-2014 07:36

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PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 05, 2014
US economy set for solid growth, shrinking deficit: CBO

The United States is expected to post solid economic growth of more than 3.0 per cent through 2016, accompanied by a shrinking deficit, a government agency said Tuesday -

[WASHINGTON] The United States is expected to post solid economic growth of more than 3.0 per cent through 2016, accompanied by a shrinking deficit, a government agency said Tuesday.
The Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan analysis arm of Congress, said in its latest report that the federal government's tax and spending policies would not constrain economic growth as much as they had in 2013.
And state and local governments were expected to increase spending after several years of budget tightening, the CBO said.
In its economic and budget outlook report for 2014 to 2024, the CBO predicted growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at 3.1 per cent this year and 3.4 per cent in 2015 and 2016.

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Lucky03
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05-Feb-2014 00:27

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JOC ? Maritime News ? International Freight Shipping
Lifting Economic Clouds to Boost Asian Exports

Mike King, Special Correspondent | Feb 03, 2014 3:00PM EST

If, as Bob Dylan once famously croaked, ?The answer is blowin? in the wind,? then Asia?s macroeconomic weather vanes are indicating fair to medium tailwinds, albeit with a risk of low pressure.

The outlook certainly looks better now than it did a year ago. Fourth quarter 2013 data from major markets beat analyst expectations, and the JPMorgan-Markit global Purchasing Managers Index reached 53.3 in December, the highest reading since April 2011.

The eurozone is forecast to move out of recession this year, with PMI data ? which has consistently led GDP growth ? suggesting further expansion, boosted by rising consumption in the U.K. and the improved performance of periphery countries. Most analysts expect this to lead to accelerating GDP growth in 2015 and 2016.

Against a backdrop of burgeoning consumer confidence and low natural gas prices, U.S. GDP also is predicted to grow more quickly in 2014 than it did last year.

Indeed, global economic output is set to expand 3.5 percent in 2014, up from an estimated 2.9 percent last year, according to global research and consulting firm PwC.

Improved stability in key markets appears certain to benefit major exporting economies in Asia, as well as ocean carriers, rail operators and airlines that ship their goods.

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist for IHS, said accelerating global growth would be a major boost for Asia this year, especially for countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand that have a high share of exports relative to total GDP.

?The economic outlook for China is also helped by the improving prospects for the U.S. and EU, which remain key export markets for China,? Biswas said. ?This upturn in world growth will also drive a rebound in world trade, with growth in world containerized trade forecast to rebound from a sluggish 2.1 percent growth rate in 2013 to 4.7 percent growth in 2014.?

Although PwC forecasts China?s GDP growth will slow to 7.5 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2013, other analysts are more bullish. IHS, for example, expects growth of 8.1 percent in 2014 as exports improve and consumer demand remains robust.

In Japan, the ?Abenomics? policies installed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will propel the country to 1.6 percent GDP growth this year, up from a projected 1.4 percent in 2013, according to PwC, while South Korea?s GDP is expected to expand 2.8 percent in 2014, up from 2.7 percent last year.

In terms of export growth, New York-based corporate bank HSBC forecasts major gains this year by China (8 percent growth, compared with 6 percent in 2013), Hong Kong (8 percent in 2014 vs. 6 percent last year), Japan (5.3 percent vs. 1.8 percent), South Korea (7.5 percent vs. 4.5 percent), Singapore (5.6 percent vs. 2.9 percent), Thailand (7.8 percent vs. 4.4 percent), Indonesia (5.1 percent vs. 4.5 percent) and Malaysia (5.6 percent vs. a 0.6 percent drop last year).

Asia-wide, HSBC expects exports to grow an impressive 7 percent in 2014 and accelerate to 8.5 percent in 2015, a huge jump from the estimated 4.7 percent growth achieved in 2013 and just 3.1 percent in 2012.

China?s solid economic expansion and rising demand for imports also will boost intra-Asia trade in 2014. ?China will continue to provide a fast-growing export market for the rest of the Asia-Pacific,? Biswas said. ?Association of Southeast Asian Nations exports to China have been growing at an average annual rate of over 20 percent per year over the last decade, and strong ASEAN-China bilateral trade will continue to be an important export growth market for both ASEAN countries and for China.?

Exports across ASEAN will play a greater role as a growth engine in 2014 than they have in previous years, he said, with domestic demand likely to moderate. Myanmar and Vietnam also will benefit from recent economic reforms.

Ample reasons remain for caution on Asia?s prospects for 2014, however. The eurozone still needs further reform of its financial sector, while the U.S. and Japan are struggling with high government debt and related fiscal risks that could hurt GDP growth and trade.

Uncertainty also clouds the outlook in India, Indonesia and Thailand, all of which face national elections this year. China, meanwhile, is at odds with a number of its neighbors over territorial sovereignty, especially at sea.

Many Asian countries also need to adjust their economies. ?A new round of structural reforms is a must for many emerging market economies, including investment in infrastructure, to reignite potential growth,? the International Monetary Fund wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook paper. ?China needs to rebalance growth away from investment toward consumption to make way for more balanced and sustainable domestic and global growth.?

According to Biswas, the main risk to an upturn in U.S. export demand comes from the impact of Federal Reserve tapering during 2014 if it results in an unexpected slowdown in the pace of U.S. private sector recovery.

?In the EU, a key risk to the fragile economic recovery is that it could still falter due to the impact of ongoing fiscal austerity and weak consumer demand,? he added.

Intra-Asian trade, which has become an increasingly important driver for export-led Asian economies, also will be at risk if Chinese growth slows because of the impact of efforts to curb domestic credit expansion, particularly in the shadow banking sector, Biswas said. ?This could significantly dampen intra-Asian trade growth, given China?s role as a key export market for most other Asian economies,? he said. ?The territorial dispute between China and Japan also remains a key risk to bilateral Sino-Japanese trade flows if tensions escalate further.?

In 2014, you may need more than one weatherman to know which way the winds blow.

Contact Mike King at [email protected].

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Lucky03
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05-Feb-2014 00:18

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JOC ? Maritime News ? International Freight Shipping
Inbound Containerized Trade Poised for Growth

Mario O. Moreno, Economist | Jan 23, 2014 10:12AM EST

Growth in U.S. containerized imports will accelerate this year thanks to an improving labor and auto market, a resilient manufacturing sector and expected gains in the value of the U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve begins to taper its massive quantitative monetary stimulus. This acceleration hinges upon the major assumption that another debt-ceiling crisis will be avoided.

Imports expanded approximately 3.5 percent in 2013. Third quarter real GDP growth in the U.S. was 4.1 percent, up from original estimates of 2.8 percent, in part because of strong inventory growth. That strength and inventory building were evident in a 4.1 percent year-over-year increase in containerized imports from Asia, slightly higher than my forecast for 3.6 percent growth. The growth pushed imports in that trade to their highest volume since 2007.

The effects of the partial government shutdown on fourth quarter consumer spending will likely be more modest than initially believed, in part because American consumers have come a long way in their debt-deleveraging fight ? household debt as a percentage of disposable income is at 110 percent, down from 135 percent in 2007. Further evidence of this can be seen in solid retail sales figures in recent months, with October and November sales beating expectations despite a sharp fall in consumer sentiment data.

Even more encouraging about the economy is the improvement in the labor market. And I say this even after the weak December employment report. Nonfarm payrolls increased only by 74,000 in that month ? well below expectations. But we must look at this number with a grain of salt. In the last 12 months through December, the U.S. economy averaged monthly gains of over 180,000 jobs, which is respectable.

The strong job figures will bring talk of tapering back to the table sooner than expected, with significant consequences for the economy and trade. As the Fed begins to scale back its massive bond-buying program, long-term mortgage rates will rise, potentially restraining first-time home purchases. In fact, the housing market has slowed recently. Existing home sales declined in September and October, likely, at least in part, because 30-year mortgage rates rose to more than 4.25 percent. The recovery in the home sales market is critical for containerized imports because it spurs significant demand for foreign home goods, most of which are bulky and take up a lot of vessel space.

In 2014, I expect U.S. containerized imports to grow 5.9 percent to a record 19.03 million 20-foot-equivalent units. That forecast is supported by an anticipated 2.5 percent increase in U.S. real GDP, a significant improvement over the 1.6 percent expansion expected for 2013, and the assumption that another debt-ceiling crisis will be avoided.

I expect the more robust performance in the second half of 2013 to continue through 2014 and 2015, supporting tighter labor market conditions and increased U.S. consumer spending.

Import prices will remain tame throughout the forecast period, assuming the current détente with Iran will extend through 2014 and into 2015. This already has helped to reduce oil prices, which will translate into lower import prices and ultimately lower production costs for suppliers of U.S. imports worldwide.

Moreover, as household and institutional demand increases, interest rates, which have been kept artificially low by the Fed, will begin to rise and attract increased demand for dollar-denominated assets from abroad. This will further restrict growth in import prices.

Although in a temporary lull, robust growth will return to the auto parts trade during the next three quarters, in line with forecasts for sales of 16.6 million units in the light trucks and auto categories, before stabilizing again in the latter half of 2014. And despite a lackluster performance in the third quarter, I expect wearing apparel growth to return in 2014. The first half of 2014 will therefore be dominated by apparel inventory rebuilding, while sales should maintain positive momentum through most of 2014.

The critical furniture trade appears grim, even as the U.S. housing market has clearly entered recovery mode. I don?t expect much better trade in this sector because the pace of household formation is low, and mortgage rates are rising. In addition, Mexico has boosted its surface shipments of furniture to the U.S. in recent years, likely at the expense of Asian suppliers. U.S. containerized imports of furniture via ocean declined in November by 5 percent year-over-year after rising by several consecutive months.

The condition of the global economy changed little in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the first half of the year. The slowdown in the BRICS countries ? Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa ? persists as these economies continue to face shrinking external markets in the U.S. and Europe. Growth in these markets will remain elevated relative to the advanced economies but will fall short of their cyclical peaks. In particular, slowing growth in China is restricting the earnings of major commodity exporters in emerging markets, adding to global challenges.

European economies remain challenged by the financial crisis and remedial austerity measures, while glimmers of light in Japan?s economy have yet to translate into a more robust market for U.S. exporters.

Containerized U.S. exports increased an estimated 1.9 percent in 2013 and likely will grow a similar 2.0 percent this year. That would be enough to push exports to a record 12.4 million TEUs. Global economic growth, excluding trade with Mexico and Canada, will remain at 3.0 percent or below through 2014 with only a slight acceleration anticipated for 2015.

In contrast to recent indications, the U.S. dollar will undergo a mild appreciation during the forecast period as the inevitable Fed tightening draws in foreign capital. Moreover, with growth slowing in emerging markets and the BRICS countries, investors around the globe will rediscover the dollar?s ?safe haven? status. The dollar?s appreciation will support a modest increase in export prices, but slackness in the U.S. labor market along with competitive pressures abroad will keep export prices in a tight range for the next two to three years.

Mario O. Moreno is chief economist for The Journal of Commerce. Contact him at [email protected] and follow him at www.twitter.com/MarioMoreno_joc.

Maritime News?International Freight Shipping
International Trade News?Trade Data?United States Trade Data
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Azzaramich
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04-Feb-2014 21:44

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NOL bucked the trend today. Up 0.005 - significant albeit small.

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Azzaramich
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04-Feb-2014 11:54

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Lucky03
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04-Feb-2014 11:27

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Wall Street helps to speed up the correction process. Rather have a speedy one than one that drags on like a frog being cooked with a small fire over prolonged period without even realizing !

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moneycow
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04-Feb-2014 11:20

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Real time - 99.5 cents last done.here still 1.05............ very slow on this forum not real time............

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moneycow
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04-Feb-2014 11:19

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if it report looses its in hundred million kind of extend one...............hopefully it is making money..............but at best it can only report " Lesser looses" it doesn't mean profitting..........I could be wrong..........pls correct me. Thanks.

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