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NOL
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darthiliator
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20-Feb-2014 22:20
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I still think tml will go up, just a hunch. Where is my red underwear?!!! | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
20-Feb-2014 21:40
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My plan was to hold NOL and increase my stake along the way for as long as 1 year. Started Nov 2013. Agreed that we should have seen the worst of NOL. It's first half result of FY 14 will be significant. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
20-Feb-2014 19:32
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Like I mentioned earlier the worst is over for ship, we should be looking forward to the new financial year 2014 where another batch of charters would be returned and new ships deployed. Last time ship cut away 8% of operating cost in 2Q13 with 14 new builds and returning 25 charters( total 125K + TEU). NOL like to start their work year clean ending 31 March so guess charters all retired by 2Q14. Just don expect too much from 1Q14 most likely flat result due to slightly higher freight rate ( CNY season mini peak). NOL main market US economy expected to grow like 3% this year so freight rate to transpacific might recover 7-8% similar to 2012 level. Best thing is no more fiscal cliff/debt ceiling/budget failure shit happening in US everything got settled by Feb, so shippers cannot use that as excuse to hold down freight rate in May contract renewal. Lastly Evergreen join CKYH alliance (China-Korean shipping alliance) so hope freight rate would be more stable this year no more big movement. |
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darthiliator
Senior |
20-Feb-2014 19:01
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Hello, this is what we are looking for. Haha we already know it would be a loss. sgng123 Veteran 11-Feb-2014 17:16 About sgng123 Contact Quote! x 0 x 0 Alert Admin nothing much for nol full year result next thurs. Gona watch out for management forward guidance, if they indicated sustain profitability in 2014 and beyond due to effective cost cutting measure that lower operating cost low enough to offset current low fright rate then it is very scary how much the stock would cheong when the freight rate go back to normal level. SCFI looked very stable last month and earlier feb if maintain this kind of stability into march when the big GRI kick in and P3 formation approved, might see freight rate stability for the next few years. Carrier Alliance = Kelong Alliance everyone not fighting for market share and hiking rate to recover loss sustain in last 3 years. US economy primed for > 3% growth this year, high chance NOL blended freight rate would jump 8% to 2012 level, watch out. |
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Heero78
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 18:56
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olam's result is bad but the overall market outlook for commodity is rosy. Wilmar's result will out today Is shipping outlook rosy?? i hope so... there is always NO 100% factor in ...So if it was an over-factor, it will move up slightly tomolo. If it was under-factor, it will drop more. that why i said the best case is, it stay at $1. NO way it will be $1.06. FYI, NOL Q42013 NET LOSS is $136million. I do agree that there is cycle, the question is how long NOL can withstand the bleeding? Office already sold....
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
20-Feb-2014 18:48
Yells: "kopi-o siu dai mai hum!" |
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Waiting to collect $$$ tomolo..!!
Huat ah!!! |
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jj7007
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 18:39
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Results is in line with sentiments and expectations. No one expected anything great. Besides, all this negativity is already pretty much priced in. Every stock and sector has it's cycle, and i think it's better to buy them when they are beat up rather than overpriced? You'd be surprised what the market thinks of it's price. Just like olam, results didn't look good to most but hey 1.52 to 1.72 since then. All in the price
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sgng123
Supreme |
20-Feb-2014 18:23
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from financial report 20 more charters set to retire this year, very high chance it would happen in 1Q judging from the trend chart showing the cost saving they achieved up to now -245 per FEU. That charter returned might yield another 150-180 drop in operating cost plus this year SCFI holding up quite well till mid feb when it drop as per season factor. Just watch out for this week SCFI to see if it stabilise or continue to drop. IF stabilise then good sign carriers finally decided to end their childish rate war and balance demand/supply and raise rate throughout march - may. 2013 is sure a recession year just look like 4Q freight rate it collapse to 2008 level. We are living in recession without knowing it lol. | ||||
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Heero78
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 18:23
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u must be dreaming. The result is disappointing. The net loss of 2013 is US276million (if not include profit of $200million for selling ur office). Although is less that US$412million in 2012, but loss is loss. The outlook for shipping is terrible. Even loss is Q42013 is higher than Q42012. Unless outlook improve, even u cut cost here and there, how many loss of US$200m++ u can survive?? No more office to sell lor....sell backside....i think tomolo will tank before $1. At best condition, maintain $1. This is really a hardcore lousy stock.
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jj7007
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 17:59
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Let's look to break that 1.005 first haha, then 1.06
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jj7007
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 17:46
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My thoughts exactly! It's really sad but most employees in TLCs just think, ah yeah " Ah Gong's Money" . WTF, its not 40-50m its 400m!!! That means they could have always saved that, and imagine it paid out as dividend! Management seems to be taking very cautious steps to guide investors, which i think is wise and prudent and is a sign of good management. The issue now is not so much the management, but more of the industry. All in all, I think at this price is good value if you have holding power, especially since global economy is just turning around. NAV is 1.02, and I won't be surprised if it goes private if it drops far below $1 say like 80c? However, looking at the way things are, I dont expect dividends to be paid out any time soon for this year. Maybe only mid-end 2015. I last invested in this after 2008 and sold when on the day it went crazy and hit above 2.30. So 0.995 doesn't seem a bad price.
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darthiliator
Senior |
20-Feb-2014 17:43
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Swee la, not bad not bad, $1,10 maybe? | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
20-Feb-2014 17:41
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worst is over for now. look forward to 2014 result, tomorrow might get some share price relief but remain in range bound. | ||||
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Azzaramich
Member |
20-Feb-2014 17:37
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Cautious guidance on outlook. Generally the financial results show positive trends. I am amazed by how much savings are being realized, which also show how much wasted resources in the past. |
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jj7007
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 17:27
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its before your reply. Reading now.. So far no bad news is good news lol |
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Rokawa
Member |
20-Feb-2014 17:14
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waiting at nol website and sgx annual report side. no updates yet. nol have the FY 2013 but no pdf file to dl. is NA still. i ask for link coz some ppl knows some other websites which post earlier (from experience with other share) |
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jj7007
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 17:07
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My friend, dont be lazy and learnt to go sgx website to find lah.. If not, if price drop or shoot up next time, u still thinking guessing what happen.
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Rokawa
Member |
20-Feb-2014 17:00
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can post link to full year result? | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
20-Feb-2014 16:04
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give u money take it, don take they still increase GST and bus fare. Remember Singapore is not a welfare state, u got to depend on urself to support, in another sense if the government screw up can always replace them, same as in a corporate but the implication for those politician who lost is like killing off their whole life achievement. Former foreign minister George Yeo who is regarded as the brightest person in PAP go into hiding in Hong Kong as adviser cannot return to Singapore in the short term till later when it is more quiet. margin low cos lot of shipping line never replace their ageing ships which cost a lot to maintain unlike NOL who got Ah Gong support to dump US$4 billion to renew the whole fleet to more efficient one which cost way much less to maintain. Current freight rate is the new norm for ultra large ships, unless u use large ships else u got priced out of industry. So many shipping line only realised in 2013 that they got to change their fleet and explain why lot of order for big ship in 2013. Temasek quite smart to do it 2 years in advance and this year is the time where the cost structure are tuned to current freight rate. | ||||
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jj7007
Veteran |
20-Feb-2014 15:53
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They give but I rather not take.. Wait increase bus fare, sp bills, erp..etc Anyway, looks like the freight industry has pretty much bottomed but still it's tough. Got a friend working at Hanjin, telling me the margins are so small and a matter of $5 or $10 per container. Bought at 0.995 to tikam
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