Latest Forum Topics /
YZJ Fin Hldg
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YZJFH - potentially rewarding
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pkli899
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18-Aug-2025 08:55
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Good morning all. Once again, thank you volvo125 for the effort. |
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tch77_pt75
Veteran |
17-Aug-2025 18:59
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Hope YZJFH can also take a look at this too
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volvo125
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17-Aug-2025 14:01
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I have just sent a suggestion to the YFH mgt through IR, see if they will consider. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Re: YZJF Circular dated 12Aug, Suggestion of FAQ. 1:54 PM (2 minutes ago) to Zhou, Kamal Hi Zhou Yan, I believe many shareholders may have sent in their questions in the past few days and many more may be doing so in the next 2 weeks. May I suggest to the management, to kindly consider issuing a FAQ a few days before the EGM, to address and clarify as much as possible, the questions and concerns raised by the shareholders ?  I believe many of these questions raised would have their varying degree of material implications, such as the one I raised, the issue of not just a mere face value 20% dilution impact but a more grave implicit 10% loss in the NAV/share post spin off post pp issuance due to the steep discount implied.  I believe, many shareholders will need time to digest the clarifications to their concerns as well as the underlying implications, so that they can come to the EGM with a clearer understanding of the whole deal before they can confidently caste their votes. The release of a FAQ will greatly facilitate the conduct of the EGM in a more positive and engaging manner. Appreciate if you could kindly convey my suggestion to the Management. Thank you very much. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx |
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fenghuo
Member |
16-Aug-2025 21:26
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Thanks Volvo125 and HVRRVH for the sharing. 
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pasttime
Supreme |
16-Aug-2025 17:35
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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also not to forget the open shorts positions.  think they are bleeding badly already.  if post spin off the marine go crazy they will have to find ways to cover.  if this is the group trying to buy then don' t sell cheaply.   |
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pasttime
Supreme |
16-Aug-2025 17:32
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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agreed with the thinking about nta dilution. ie sell too cheaply away. ifact give away. since this is now in grow area there is no need to raise the $250m. if wnat in can buy from open market or pay same same nta at least.  to buy $250m worth one will not likely get it at nta. however open price for a growth stock is not much related to nta. it will be market perception of many things like. what is the grow be like. how long. how porfitable. is the bosses behind the buy up still keen or running away. it is buyers money power versus sellers shares available.   |
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volvo125
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16-Aug-2025 17:30
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The current shares with ongoing spin off narratives in play for reference :- LHN $0.82 @ 1.33x NAV Centurion $1.73 @ 1.26x NAV Boustead $1.51 @ 1.3x NAV At $1.06, YFH is still " just" at 0.95x NAV (if you take the interim 1H25 NAV 1.11) or 0.91x NAV (if you take FY24 NAV 1.17). There are probably going to be 1~3 rate cuts by end 2025, starting from Sep. It' s anybody guess if YFH cum spin off price will move towards 1.3x NAV, or at current price, up to a further 36% upside @1.11 NAV assumption, or up to a further 44% upside @1.17 NAV assumption. However, ex spin off, based on the past 3 years historical high growth potential of the maritime business, YMD valuation should likely grow very fast, while YFH will continue to remain a steady dividend income yield play with a very sizeable NAV base. Your call.
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volvo125
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16-Aug-2025 16:42
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Ok, let me explain one more time. The projected NAV of the post spin off YMD is ~$2.0b or $2000m. If no further pp (proposed placement) of $250m, existing shareholders will retain 100% control. Now with pp, the EGM circular stipluated a clause :-  xxxxxxx as at the Latest Practicable Date, the Company envisages that based on an amount of up to S$250 million to be raised from the Proposed Placement, it will result in a percentage reduction of 20.0% or more of the Company& rsquo s equity interest in YZJ Maritime, under Rule 805(2)(b) xxxxx Regardless how I read the above, this 20% dilution is still attributed to the additional proposed placement $250m and the impact will result in YFM, not due to the YFH/YFM capital reduction exercise. It seems to me that the issuance of this $250m to these new group of so called " sophisticated" investors (AI and Institution Investors) will cause a 20% dilution to all the existing shareholders due to the final enlarged share base value (~$2B + $250m) = ~$2250m. Just a quick crude workout. The post spin off original base is ~$2000m. If the new placement increase the value by $500m to $2500m, then the original group of shareholders will see their ownership become 2000/2500 = 80%, or their ownership are diluted by 20%. However, the share placement is only for $250m, not $500m, yet this issuance can impact a 20% dilution. This implicitly means that this new shares are going to be issued at a steep 50% discount.  Else, to effect a 20% dilution with a " just" price without compromising on existing shareholders value, the amount raised should be $500m. Existing shareholders portion would then be (2000/2500) = 80%, and new sharesholders would be (500/2500) = 20%.  In this case, existing shareholders would still see a 20% dilution in control but the supposedly post spin off YMD NAV/share will remain unchange, meaning we will not see a theoretical 10% loss in the NAV. Why 10% loss in NAV in the original case ? This is the simulation :- Post spin off YMD =  3480m shares O/S at NAV $2000m, or 2000/3480 = $0.575/share To effect a 20% dilution on existing shareholders, the new YMD will issue pp = (3480/0.8 minus 3480) = 870m new shares. However, these shares are issued at 50% discount such that only $250m is collected, instead of $500m. Hence post spin off post pp $250m YMD =  4350m shares O/S at NAV $2250m ( 3480+870 = 4350m shares O/S), or $0.517/share The loss in NAV value = (0.575 minus 0.517) = $0.058/share or 10%. SInce YFH/YMD is an introductory spin off, we could reasonably assume YMD will commence its Day 1 trading with the NAV as a key reference in its debut price discovery. Mr Market will theorectically markdown YMD by 10% at the start.  
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HVRRVH
Elite |
16-Aug-2025 15:37
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Working backward using 7.2%, you have assumed the placement price to be $0.94 pre spin or $0.47 post spin . If this is the case, I think existing holders is ok cos 7.2% dilution is only related to voting power. In term of NAV dilution, this same example is 0.9% and again no existing share holders will make noise. We are contemplating a 20% dilution to existing share holders using current outstanding shares and it work out to placement price of 50% to theorectically post spin YZJM' s NAV of $0.58 and that' s why we are alarmed. 
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fenghuo
Member |
16-Aug-2025 15:06
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Can help enlighten me why there is 20% dilution?  Based on $250m placement, there is probably 250m shares increase ,  considering now YZJF has 3480m share, so around 7.2% dilution.    | ||||
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volvo125
Master |
16-Aug-2025 14:27
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Btw, if my (probably ours now) interpretation is correct, this 9% post spin off post pp impact will affect the opening price ex spin off, as well as the ongoing prices in the current cum spin off phase. So even for those of you who decide to abort the train before the ex date, Mr Market will still naturally markdown YFH ongoing price appreciating potential by this ~9%. | ||||
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volvo125
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16-Aug-2025 14:07
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Yes, a 20% dilution effect caused by the pp shares would implied that these pp shares will be issued at 50% discount to the post spin off YMD theoretical NAV value (or may be the day 1 supposedly opening price ?). So the overall net impact to the post spin off plus post pp shares issued final NAV would be ~9% down.
Whatever the supposedly day 1 open price of YMD without pp, the actual day 1 price will now likely open with an immediate ~9% discount with pp approved and executed before the ex spin off date.
So on what basis do these special group of sophisticated investors have to warrant the coy to accord such a huge discount to them with all the existing shareholders bearing this front loading blunt ? Perhaps they have connections to new valuable business leads ? Or perhaps they hold keys to opening otherwise locked new market territories ? If these group of special investors is such highly "strategic" in nature and hence warrant such privilege, mgt need to let the exiting shareholders know so as to garner support.
Perhaps, if more shareholders write through to IR to seek clarification on this matter, YFH may realise the heightened gravity of shareholders concern on this matter, and in turn issue a response through an sgx announcement before the EGM.
May be you guys should seriously consider writing in too to push for a response before the EGM is convened.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
16-Aug-2025 13:04
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Indeed congrats those who realised their gains. For those who shouldier on, let' s watch the development closely. I read from the circular that the new NAV for YZJM post spin will be $2B, since the distribution will be 1-1 so the outstanding shares for YZJM will be same as YZJF now which is 3,480,450,520 and that will give us NAV of about $0.58. A further $250m will be added via private placement so the NAV become $2.250B at least. In term of NAV per share post private placement, really much dependent on the PP price. As illustrated by volvo125, if the dilution is really 20%, the PP price could be a hugh 50% to the current NAV at $0.285! Imagine private placement at $0.285 per share! In turn, it will reduce post spin NAV to the level of about $0.52, close to 9% difference. Now, how would the market price the share on the first day of post spin listing? Factors to be considered of course is the NAV and to certain extend, the PP price. A negative reaction bound to happen if private placement price is so hugh at $0.285 and we can count our lucky stars if the open marke price post spin is at NAV level at $0.58. Therefore, the management indeed need to clear the air and really they shouldn' t wait till EGM to try to explain and clarify the matter as voting will be immenient after Q& A on EGM day. Anyone has done their calculation too and would like to share their interpretation on the matter are welcome as I could be getting it very wrong too. Notwithstanding the above, the price actions have been postive in tandem with the spin off developments and could be indication of rerating of YZJF and YZJM post spin. it does not gel with the news that the PP will dilute existing shareholders by at least 20%. Unless the people who have influence on market prices such as insiders, institutional investors and accreditated investors know much more information than us and they view the overall development as positive.   
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pasttime
Supreme |
16-Aug-2025 06:47
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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the rest if yzjfh is also ready for rapid grow. 2000m at 4.5% will yield 90m 2000m at 1% will yield 20m to get back 90m return will need principle of 90/0.01 = 9000m potentially if they play it right the profit few years down the road will be in billions. |
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pasttime
Supreme |
16-Aug-2025 06:40
Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou." |
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congratulations to those who sold and make money. there is never right or wrong about selling. make money means right. i m holding on as the growth in maritime is not fully reflected in the price yet. less focus with nta. more on the rapid growth of maritime business. profit after tax from fy2022 46.5m --> fy 2024 186.2m. ie 4x jump. income from maritime 1H 2024  22.1m -->   1H 2025 40.1m  that is a almost 100% growth.  shows that momentum is there. the opportunities are there.  limited by cash to pump into it. so growth baby growth. who knows how high it can go. to me it is a ground floor opportunities. dyodd   |
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HVRRVH
Elite |
15-Aug-2025 23:25
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Yes diverse views are welcome if based on interpretation of facts and information, and different views and expectations are expected. However, we have seen some naysayers act as if they knew everything when in fact they didn' t base their opinions on any fact and they were condescending toward others who hold different views and even mock the long holders. Well, shall not dwell on it and long holders should focus on whether there is merits to continue holding the 2 companies post spin. Personally I wish to hold a bit longer as from the past 3 years plus since inception of YZJF, we have seen YZJF transfrom from DI focus to other investments, of course most noteworthy is the venture into maritime business and the resulting spin off now. To be frank, we cannot say we have expected the emergence of maritime businesses as it was not the area of focus for YZJF post spin from YZJS. At the material point, old Ren felt enough was enough and came back to helm the ship and we all knew the rest of the story. Therefore, with the spin off, I am thinking YZJM, with old Ren committed 100% to run it, would have high chance of growing into a much more valuable company and for that, I am willing to give myself 2 to 3 years at least to see what happen. Regardless, will hold tight tight till spin off materialised. Wtih regard to placement dilution, not sure why the management cannot address the matter earlier, wouldn' t it be a bit late for shareholders to digest the explanation/clarifiation if they only talk about it during EGM? A 20% dilution is very unusual if indeed that is the case. In 2017 when YZJS raised $154m, the dilution was only 4.07%.  https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/shipyards/yangzijiang-looks-to-raise-154m-from-share-placement
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volvo125
Master |
15-Aug-2025 15:48
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Eh ... I think you can't simply compare these companies at face values based on their npat, AUM and share prices. These coy have very different share O/S base, capital structures, moots, as well as many other qualitative and quantitative factors not readily known or awared to us as retail investors.
For example, why market accord iFast with an insane price of 8.3xBV or 38xPE is beyond my comprehension. What i don't understand, I don't touch.
As for the coy with $150m AUM, the price $2.50 is just a tag and has little meaning to us until we know it's shares O/S, capital structure, P&L and the nature of business it is conducting.
For example, YFH price would have been traded at = 1.05*3 ≈ $3.15 today if the coy did a 3 for 1 reverse split earlier, reducing its float from 3480m to 1160m. $3.15 at 1160m O/S is no difference from $1.05 at 3480m O/S.
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tch77_pt75
Veteran |
15-Aug-2025 14:03
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I think YZJFH still has the potential but the management must be capable.
The profit is almost 3 times higher than iFAST. If YZJFH mirrors what iFAST is doing, it can be around $30 per share too? For fund size of around S$150m, some share/unit price is around at around S$2.5. Just my personal view 😂
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pkli899
Supreme |
15-Aug-2025 13:27
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Thanks volvo for keeping us informed. Need to hear them properly before voting.
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pkli899
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15-Aug-2025 13:25
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Yes, let' s hope we hear from them before EGM. That way, it will give us time to contemplate how to vote. I also think old Ren wouldn' t want his holding diluted. Unless, the so call " new investors" is actually a sepcial purpose vehicle somehow related to his family.   
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