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NOL
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sgng123
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05-Apr-2014 18:22
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ship posted losses of 120mil in 1q2013 but nol building sale profit 200m reverse it. share price already priced in a loss so any surprise on either way would move ship. key theme is how much more can ship squeeze out of fleet renewal, 120K TEU chartered expected to retire by 1H14 so just see plus there is efficency gain from G6 alliance in transpacific. This time more cost saving might be achieved with G6 alliance due to transpacific bigger contribution to group revenue and fixed cost. In short do not expect global freight rate to recover strongly this year, at most a modest recovery. What counted is how much cost saving can ship achieved this year to prepare for bumper years in the future. I was hoping ship would unlock value of ship terminals and reduce the debt ratiio and improve cash financial, something like what noble did disposed of agricu unit and improve financial position. Better still NOL sell off the terminal and logistic business and focus solely on port to port operaton better since freight rate not going back to pre crisis level where shippers pay premium for full service. Pay budget rate u get budget service simple lol. |
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gavinl
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05-Apr-2014 18:05
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Huh??? Only $76.50? Lol | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
05-Apr-2014 18:03
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NOL posted profit of $76.5 for Q1 '13. I don't think market will like it if NOL delivers loss for Q1 '14. Moreover, in the 3 Mar Issue of The EDGE, it quoted officials of NOL saying they are beginning to see promising pockets of demand in the market and the president of APL, Kenneth Glen as saying they have started to see stronger than anticipated volumes in all their major trade lanes (recently). 40% of their revenues is derived from Transpacific trade and of which 70% are based on contracs. So, the May 1 contract negotiation will be crucial for setting the freight rate while cost cutting will remain critical.
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sgng123
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05-Apr-2014 10:35
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Just don expect too much from Q1 result, a loss is most probably due to low transpacific rate deal in 13 but loss would be kept to minimum. Hopefully this year US economy would rebound and a modest recovery in transpacific rate contract later this May. Transpacific rate negiotiation is highly tied to future US economy outlook as long no major domestic headwind like government shutdown/budget showdown etc should be peaceful. |
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pineapple123
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04-Apr-2014 18:24
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not sure if accumulation or something else.. sigh been on a bad run of form in sg market lately |
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Lucky03
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04-Apr-2014 18:23
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Q1 result will be released May 14 | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
03-Apr-2014 22:20
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NOL chart looking positive with high volume. | ||||
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sgng123
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03-Apr-2014 17:17
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FMC clear G6 operation in transpacific and transalantic shipping alliance. Now shipping consolidation almost completed, market dominated by 3 big shipping alliances G6, P3 and CKYHE together three controlled like 80% of market. Romance of the 3 kingdoms strategy playing out, noone want to start a rate war lest the third party benefit from 2 parties fight. Just be careful , look like someone or big fund is trying to resist the upward movement of ship, every time it tried to move up selling come and bring it down to earth. Can be another Olam saga in play, Temasek hand might be at work. Olam got like US $9.1B of debt and high debt ratio of 2.0X more than ship 1.8X, still can command $2.23 offer per share, just don get it. Olam market capitalisation is US $5.4B from offer price 2.23 compare to it high debt of US $9.1B, WTF temasek is thinking lol. |
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pineapple123
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03-Apr-2014 00:22
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chart looks like accumulation going on..might consider an entry soon |
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Apr-2014 21:53
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Tanker owners enjoy better first quarter
By Ian Middleton from London The first quarter of 2014 has ended rather better for the crude tanker market than the equivalent period last year and mostly better for the clean and dirty products markets. Average earnings for VLCCs according to Clarkson Research figures, have been almost $30,000 a day this year, while suezmaxes have averaged $31,000 a day on four main routes, aframaxes $29,000 a day. Equivalent figures in last year's first quarter were a miserable $8,000 a day for VLCCs, $15,000 for suezmaxes and $15,000 for aframaxes. In the clean products market while MRs have not improved their average earnings of just over $10,000 a day, handysizes have pushed up to over $21,000 a day from $16,000 for the same period last year. In the dirty market, earnings this year have been almost $24,000 a day against $14,000 in first quarter 2013. All of which suggests a market in gradual recovery although we are moving into traditionally weaker quarters with winter turning to spring. Time charter rates for large crude tankers have taken a large uptick - VLCCs from below $20,000 last year for a one-year charter to about $26,000 now - though there have been few period fixtures so far suggesting that charterers are hardly panicking yet. Supply remains an issue but the numbers are coming down with only 13% of the overall tanker fleet now on order for delivery over the next few years. While consumption growth according to energy analysts is going to be anaemic at 1.4% or so for the next couple of years it is at least growing. Changing trade patterns are generally helping tonne mile demand in many oil and product trades. While nobody is holding their breath, the tanker market may be emerging gradually from a grim period in its always chequered economic history. Published in Americas, Asia, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Tankers, Dispatches © Copyright 2014 Seatrade Communications Limited. Replication or redistribution in whole or in part is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Seatrade Communications Limited. Wednesday, 02 April 2014 06:29 |
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Lucky03
Elite |
02-Apr-2014 01:52
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JOC ? Maritime News ? International Freight Shipping
Hope Against Hope Chris Brooks | Mar 18, 2014 4:49PM One of the more compelling moments among many at this month?s TPM conference came not from the stage, but from the audience. ?Is there any hope for this industry?? That question came during the Q&A session that followed an hour-long fusillade on the dire state of the container shipping industry from Ron Widdows, CEO of shipowner and lessor Rickmers Group and its Rickmers Linie operating unit. ?Close your eyes and think of the discussion we?ve heard for the last 10 years ? that the industry is busted,? Widdows responded. ?Unless the people who are running the companies get to the point where they can price the product at a level where they can make money, then we will stay at the same rate levels for years.? Widdows, an outspoken industry critic even in his previous roles as CEO of APL and then president of its parent company NOL, clearly is feeling unshackled, relieved to be removed from an industry that has lost control over pricing ? and not likely to retain it anytime soon, given the significant capacity that has drenched the market in a lukewarm economic recovery. ?You can?t see it out there with a Hubble telescope because it?s way out there, so for all this jazz about trade growth and demand growth, people are going to build ships because they have to in order to lower their costs,? he said. It is, of course, that lack of control over pricing that has carriers focused on the only recourse they have to remain profitable: costs. It?s a focus that, like the 8,000- to 10,000-TEU ships shifting to the trans-Pacific and other trades that can?t handle the even larger vessels entering the Asia-Europe market, is cascading throughout the supply chain, be it through carriers? exit from the chassis business to their formation of mega-alliances such as the P3 Network, G6 and expanding CKYHE. The chassis situation underscores the severe ramifications filtering down to U.S. terminals at New York-New Jersey Norfolk, Va. and Los Angeles-Long Beach, where a shortage of available equipment is contributing to hours-long truck lines at gates. Meanwhile, carriers say the key differentiator in this low-rate environment ? service ? is instilling little confidence among their shipper customers. Adam Hall, Dollar General?s senior director of international logistics, said at TPM that the formation or expansion of alliances doesn?t foster improved overall reliability. That?s clearly no ringing endorsement for an industry whose vessels have struggled to arrive on time in recent months, according to analyses from SeaIntel and Drewry. Indeed, the opportunities for carriers to cancel specific sailings when they perceive load factors to be insufficient will only increase, Hall said. If there is hope for container carriers, and the shippers they serve, it might be found by looking to the heavens, or at least to the skies. It wasn?t so long ago, after all, that international airlines ? like their container shipping brethren ? were awash in too much capacity, too many planes flying half-full and billions of dollars in losses. But, as Widdows pointed out, the airlines figured out how to manage their assets. The result? When, he asked, was the last time you flew on a plane that wasn?t full? ?I laid up 20 percent of my capacity in 2010,? he said, referencing the most profitable year for the industry in nearly a decade. ?It could be tomorrow that [carriers] take out excess capacity.? Carriers, in other words, have the ability to change the pricing dynamic. Like their airline brethren, they have the way. Problem is, they lack the will. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Apr-2014 20:56
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Drewry urges NOL to cut costs further
Singapore: Shipping consultants Drewry has urged Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), which runs Singaporean containerline APL, to work on lowering its fixed unit costs if it is to get back into the black. In a report which compared NOL to Hong Kong?s OOCL, Drewry noted: ?NOL?s chances of a turnaround are dependent on lowering its high fixed unit costs as a sustained recovery in freight rates is still a few quarters away.? NOL?s asset base has historically been focused on charter-in tonnage leading to higher unit costs, Drewry noted. In a bid to significantly lower its cost base, NOL embarked upon a massive fleet renewal program coupled with a major cost savings program in early 2012. ?The company did manage to cut its costs significantly over the previous years but still lags behind many of its peers,? the maritime consultants noted. NOL has seen its balance sheet strained rapidly with net gearing increasing from a meagre 11.7% at the start of 2011 to ~182% by end-2013. ?This has put a severe strain on NOL?s operating cashflows, which are failing to meet rising interest costs,? Drewry stated. Nevertheless, Drewry anticpated ?improved results? for NOL in 2014 as it takes ?the right steps to reduce its cost base, gearing levels and restructure its fleet?. [01/04/14] |
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Apr-2014 01:39
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Shipping confidence at highest level since 2008: Moore Stephens
By Gary Howard from London Over the past three months, confidence across the shipping industry has risen to its highest level since 2008, according to Moore Stephens' shipping confidence survey. On a scale of one to 10, low to high, confidence was at 6.5 in February 2014, up from 6.1 in November 2013 and approaching the survey's peak of 6.8 from May 2008. Confidence rose across the board, with all of the survey's respondent categories showing an upturn: shipowners, charterers, managers, brokers, advisers and others. "Six years is a long time in shipping. Indeed, based on empirical evidence, it is long enough to qualify as a cycle in what is an historically cyclical industry," commented Moore Stephens shipping partner, Richard Greiner. "It is perhaps too soon to say that we have reached the end of the most recent downward cycle, but it seems that the worst may be over. This latest survey finds confidence in shipping at its highest level since 2008, with genuine prospects for further improvement over the next twelve-to-eighteen months." While some respondents welcomed the reduced threat of over-tonnaging, others were worried about the impact of private equity funding and its effect on the decisions of ship owners. "There appear to be a lot of private equity funds, or vulture funds, willing and able to invest in shipping, which helps to increase confidence levels because the investors in such funds normally expect a significant rate of return." commented one respondent. Others cautioned that, "the oversupply of tonnage, together with private equity investment, will continue to depress rates and delay recovery," and, "the flood of private equity funding, which must be spent before it reaches its sell-by date, persuades previously sensible operators to ignore basic economic principles. It's happened before." The survey also asked the likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development within 12 months, which stayed at 5.8 on the same one to 10 scale. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
29-Mar-2014 18:19
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JOC ? Maritime News ? International Freight Shipping
Ocean Carrier Rate Revision Roundup for March 28 JOC Staff | Mar 28, 2014 5:13PM Multiple carriers have planned rate increases in various trade lanes in April and May, although any gains achieved could be fleeting as overcapacity and lackluster global demand continues. However, according to investment firm Jefferies, the container shipping industry?s supply and demand gap is narrowing this year, which will help carriers improve profitability. Furthermore, as carriers head into the rate-negotiation season after a difficult fall of 2013, they may be able to negotiate modest contract rate increases on the trans-Pacific, according to Esben Christensen, director of global maritime practice at AlixPartners. Asia-Europe Maersk Line plans to implement a general rate increase of $650 per 20-foot container and $1,300 per 40-foot and 45-foot container on its trade from the Far East, excluding Japan, to the Mediterranean, excluding Syria, effective April 1. For shipments to Syria, the hike will be $500 per 20-foot container and $1,000 per 40-foot and 45-foot container. CMA CGM aims to increase rates on its trade from India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to North Europe, Scandinavia, the Mediterranean, Baltic, Black Sea, North Africa, Central America, the Caribbean and South America by $200 per 20-foot container and $300 per 40-foot container, starting April 15. Asia-Africa CMA CGM has proposed a rate hike of $250 per TEU on shipments from Asia, including Japan, Southeast Asia and Bangladesh, to West Africa, beginning May 1. On the same date, Mediterranean Shipping Co. will try to implement a rate hike of $250 per 20-foot container and $500 per 40-foot container on cargo from the Far East to West Africa and Angola. Asia-Latin America MSC and Cosco Container Lines both plan to raise rates on shipments from Asia to South America?s east coast, starting April 15. The increase will be $600 per 20-foot container and $1,200 per 40-foot container. Intra-Asia CMA CGM hopes to boost rates on cargo from Asia, including Japan, Southeast Asia and Bangladesh, to Red Sea ports, effective April 1. For cargo to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the hike will be $200 per TEU, and for shipments to Ain Sukhna, Egypt Aqaba, Jordan Djibouti Port Sudan and Aden and Al Hudaydah, Yemen, the increase will be $300 per TEU. Hapag-Lloyd has scheduled a rate hike of $200 per TEU on shipments from East Asia, excluding Japan, to the Persian Gulf, starting April 15. Trans-Atlantic MSC hopes to boost rates on cargo from Greece Turkey east Mediterranean, excluding Israel and the Black Sea to the U.S., effective May 1. The increase will be $200 per 20-foot container and $300 per 40-foot container. US-Oceania Three container lines have planned rate hikes of $175 per 20-foot container and $350 per 40-foot container, beginning May 1: Hapag-Lloyd intends to raise rates on its trade from the U.S. to Australia and New Zealand. MSC plans to boost rates on shipments from the U.S. East Coast to Australia, New Zealand and New Caledonia. The GRI replaces MSC?s previous announcement that this rate hike would take effect on April 1. U.S. Lines aims to raise rates on cargo from the U.S. East Coast to Australia and New Zealand. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
29-Mar-2014 08:24
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天 时 、 地 利 。 Now counting on 人 和 and that the NOL Management does their job well. The technical chart is promising if a breakout to likely test its last high of 1.13.
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index Weekly Index 2014-03-21 2014-03-28 Compare With Last Week Comprehensive Index 929.43 1067.44 +138.01 Got the lot below. Lot 21 Bless is the union of the man and his wife. Who marry in accord with Yin and Yang. So a dragon and a serpent join together. United are they in a dream so sweet. This describes the harmony of the sun and the moon. It symbolizes great good fortune. Whatever you wish will materialize. A man and a woman will unite in marriage. There will be abundance of riches and an even better harvest is to come. Your family and your own safety is guaranteed. Trading will prosper and you will make money easily. Marriage will be successfully arranged and a boy will be born. It is a profitable year for farming as well as raising silkworm and domestic animals. A visitor will come soon and the missing will reappear. Things lost will be found. Lawsuits will go in your favor. Migration or move will bring you fortune. Sickness gets good treatment. Ancestral graves are safe and sound.
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Lucky03
Elite |
29-Mar-2014 01:55
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JOC ? Maritime News ? Ships & Shipbuilding
Container Shipping?s Supply-Demand Gap Is Narrowing Grace M. Lavigne, Associate Web Editor | Mar 26, 2014 10:44AM EDT Container shipping supply and demand will become ?finely balanced? this year, which will help carriers improve profitability, according to investment firm Jefferies. Supply Growth Forecasts Cut Global container ship scrapping has grown since 2011. Part of the reason is an acceleration in the pace of scrapping, Jefferies said. In 2013, 460,000 TEUs or 2.8 percent of container capacity was eliminated, a record high for the industry. The removal of tonnage included a ?sharp increase? in the number of vessels in the 3,000- to 5,500-TEU capacity range being sold for demolition. These vessels are becoming obsolete as 6,000- to 9,000-TEU vessels cascade out of the Asia-Europe trade to other long-haul markets. Furthermore, these vessels consume up to 140 metric tons of bunker fuel per day at a sailing speed of 22 to 25 knots, costing as much as $80,878 per day at current prices. But even at a reduced speed of 16 knots, these vessels consume 50 to 55 metric tons of bunker fuel per day at a cost of about $28,885 to $31,774, making them relatively fuel inefficient compared with larger, newer vessels of 8,000+ TEUs that consume 70 to 75 metric tons per day, with a cost of $40,439 or $43,328. ?On top of the fuel inefficiency argument, financial strain is also forcing operators and owners into scrapping,? Jefferies said in a written statement. ?A scrapped vessel means an immediate cash inflow rather than holding on to a cash-draining asset.? In the next two years, shipowners will likely only scrap ships in the feeder and 3,000- to 5,500-TEU class sizes, which account for 2.3 million TEUs or 13.5 percent of the current global fleet, according to Jefferies. However, not all of these vessels will be scrapped, as they will still be needed for intra-regional trades and north-south routes such as Africa, Jefferies said. In total, 73 vessels were scrapped in 2013, versus 32 in 2012 and three in 2011. In the first two months of 2014, 30 vessels have already been scrapped, and Jefferies forecasts that 500,000 TEUs or 2.9 percent of the global fleet will be scrapped this year. Jefferies also expects that 500,000 TEUs or 2.8 percent will be eliminated in 2015, meaning 1 million TEUs could be scrapped in the next two years. Furthermore, although planned deliveries are expected to increase 9.8 percent year-over-year in 2014, Jefferies expects only 83 percent of the orderbook will be delivered. As a result, the analyst has reduced its supply growth forecast to 5.3 percent in 2014, down from its previous forecast of 5.7 percent, and compared with the 5.6 percent growth recorded in 2013. Similarly, Alphaliner recently cut its supply growth forecast for 2014 from 7.6 percent to 5.5 percent. Potential for More Demand Growth Meanwhile, demand is set to increase 5.0 to 5.5 percent in 2014, according to Jefferies, which is roughly enough to keep the supply side in check. Alphaliner predicted demand growth of 4.6 percent for the year. Jefferies said there is potential for ?upside surprise? in demand growth this year if economic recovery in Europe and the U.S. gains momentum. The firm said it is confident that European restocking demand will continue in 2014, as European retail sales grow and inventories at business levels remain ?substantially? below trend lines. European retail sales are recovering: trade volume in the 18-member euro area since 2010. Full-size image Retail sales in Europe have rebounded in recent months, reaching 1.5 percent year-over-year growth in November 2013 and 1.3 percent growth in January 2014, the highest monthly gains since the end of 2010, according to Eurostat. Additionally, an inventory survey by Eurostat in January indicated that European companies? inventory was ?still very thin,? which sets up an environment for a restocking cycle as retailers at the moment cannot meet rising demand with existing inventory, Jefferies said. Consequently, the analyst forecasts Asia-Europe trade volume will grow 6.0 percent year-over-year in 2014, compared with last year?s 5.0 percent year-over-year growth. U.S. retail sales were up 0.3 percent in February, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, after two months of decline attributed to severe winter weather, Reuters reported. The rebound reinforced expectations of a pick-up in economic activity, according to Reuters. ?The [U.S.] consumer appears to be back in the game,? said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York, in an interview with Reuters. ?We see this as further confirmation that the underlying momentum in the economy remains quite favorable.? Jefferies noted that there are market concerns about China?s export outlook, following a decline of more than 20 percent year-over-year in the country?s exports in February. However, the firm dismissed this data point: ?We have viewed [China?s] export figures with increasing skepticism, since we believe they have become disconnected from actual container port foreign trade throughout the past few years,? the firm said. ?Our read is that people have been using falsified invoices to bring in offshore capital, getting around China?s capital control.? In contrast to the official export data from China, export container throughput remained ?healthy? at 5 percent growth year-to-date, Jefferies said. Furthermore, exports from China in February were likely impacted by factory shutdowns due to the Lunar New Year holiday. With the supply growth rate close to the demand growth rate this year, this balance has positive implications for carriers? bottom lines in 2014, as it may allow them to regain control of freight rates. Jefferies concluded that there is even potential for ?unexpected tightness? in the market if there is a positive surprise for cargo volume. On the other hand, container lines could still have difficulties in the long run if they continue to take on debt in order to finance new, more efficient mega-ships. Contact Grace M. Lavigne at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @Lavigne_JOC. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Mar-2014 11:38
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NOL attempted breakout over last few days but couldn't hold 1.005. Let's hope it succeed today. | ||||
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spore1
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28-Mar-2014 11:36
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this could be the next counter to move up
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Mar-2014 02:09
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Container Shipping?s Supply-Demand Gap Is Narrowing
03/26/2014 Container shipping supply and demand will become ?finely balanced? this year, which will help carriers improve profitability, according to investment firm Jefferies. Supply Growth Forecasts Cut Global container ship scrapping has grown since 2011. Full-size image Part of the reason is an acceleration in the pace of scrapping, Jefferies said. In 2013, 460,000 TEUs... |
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Azzaramich
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27-Mar-2014 16:24
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Anyone attending the AGM? (2) To approve the sum of up to S$1,950,000 as Directors? fees for the financial year ending 26 December 2014 (FY 2013: up to S$1,950,000) Is this too much for a company with 3 years consecutive losses? |
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