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Goldfinger Supreme	29-Aug-2019 07:39        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I bought again at 30. Fine with the risk return trade off. runaway      ( Date: 29-Aug-2019 07:27) Posted: For every trading house that says up, there is an equal voice that says down. One reputable one said $1.00+ for Ezion not too long ago. I remember it because a friend is heavily vested. The same goes to the many voices in this forum. Do Not believe in whatever is said here.  When big guns in property are down, SIA below $9, and major banks 20% off their peak..... you know bad times are coming. Cash is king, for now.  Between collecting < 5% dividend and losing > 10% of your principle, the choice is clear.
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runaway Senior	29-Aug-2019 07:27        runaway About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For every trading house that says up, there is an equal voice that says down. One reputable one said $1.00+ for Ezion not too long ago. I remember it because a friend is heavily vested. The same goes to the many voices in this forum. Do Not believe in whatever is said here.  When big guns in property are down, SIA below $9, and major banks 20% off their peak..... you know bad times are coming. Cash is king, for now.  Between collecting < 5% dividend and losing > 10% of your principle, the choice is clear.
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Goldfinger Supreme	29-Aug-2019 00:02        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Uobkh has a buy call at target 64cts. https://research.sginvestors.io/2019/08/oxley-holdings-4qfy19-uob-kay-hian-research-2019-08-28.html?m=1
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raptor87 Member	28-Aug-2019 23:10        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If we take the Singapore developments fully into account at an average of 17% gross margin, and assume conservative development surplus for overseas developments, the realisable NAV is at least about $0.70. Take a 30% discount to be extra conservative, and you arrive at $0.49. That is 63% upside taking into account closing price of $0.30, and 35% upside taking into account NAV of OHL as at end-Jun 19.
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mikewb21 Senior	28-Aug-2019 14:34        mikewb21 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Results not that good, but the management has a plan for next 3-4 years maturing debt. Future cashflow($3.8B, secured but unbilled) is safe with local and overseas projects sold since 2018.  Personally, they should be less aggessive with overseas propoerties. Especially, Cyprus, China, Vietnam and Myanmar. They should in fact look to offload them to reduce debts and exposure. At least cashflow is positive. $1.4Bil of debt are project debts which is self financing Gotta wait for 3-4 years typically to recognised profits from development.   2023 for me.  Vested but will not buy more till all the dust settle Cheers....
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Goldfinger Supreme	28-Aug-2019 07:45        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think we are trying to be balanced. Not all good but there are positives. Remember - we are living in a property hungry and driven society. Everyone wants a private home, deep down, even if they do not say it. The property cooling measures are trying to curb demand. Once and if moderated, the inherent deep hidden forces of demand will pour forth. I am only dampened from buying a seventh property because I am truly sick of paying ABSD. That is the bottom line. runaway      ( Date: 28-Aug-2019 07:06) Posted: The company has $3.5 B of total debts, with more than $1 B falling due within a year. The cooling measures have affected all developers, the company is no exception. I was amused to read some of the positive remarks here about the FY results, despite the 77% drop in income, and 42% in revenue. The landbank and the units built may not be a blessing if there is no demand and you cant sell what you build. The market is flooded with excess supply of unsold units. Some completed projects have turned to leasing because there are no buyers.
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runaway Senior	28-Aug-2019 07:06        runaway About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The company has $3.5 B of total debts, with more than $1 B falling due within a year. The cooling measures have affected all developers, the company is no exception. I was amused to read some of the positive remarks here about the FY results, despite the 77% drop in income, and 42% in revenue. The landbank and the units built may not be a blessing if there is no demand and you cant sell what you build. The market is flooded with excess supply of unsold units. Some completed projects have turned to leasing because there are no buyers.
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raptor87 Member	27-Aug-2019 21:48        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think the management was deliberately aggressive and knew the risks, but also knew they could mitigate it with good execution.  Remember that OHL came about only around 2008. As a developed economy, Singapore already had established property players (Far East, Frasers, Capitaland etc.). The only way to establish yourself as a major player is to take outsized risk and bid where the developed players shun from. Oxley did that and played the game well. They started with shoebox apartments in the first development cycle to establish a track record and to build a balance sheet to lever up. This allowed them to list and grow into a sizable developer. Its no mean feat. C' mon, developers like Far East basically rode the secular trend of SG going from third world to first. The founder probably made his first pot of gold in the 60s! You could buy up property with a bit of savings and grow from there. Now to develop a plot of land, you need 10s of millions, and large rivals will probably outbid you if the land have even a moderate amount of development potential. If growing bigger does not hinder management team' s execution ability, OHL has a long way to go. That' s how I see it. Of course, gotta continue watching the numbers.   Goldfinger      ( Date: 27-Aug-2019 21:06) Posted: Good observation - Yes the $400+m cash balance should allay fears of bond repayment ability and default concerns for Nov 2019 and May 2020, which led to its current sorry state.i reread the announcement and presentation again and am cautiously optimistic now. There seem to be quite a lot of unbilled Payments coming in. They may have finally learnt their lesson. raptor87      ( Date: 27-Aug-2019 19:13) Posted: I somehow didn' t expect strong earnings (but of course wanted to be pleasantly surprised). Sales were good this year, but these are residential development in SG and revenues and profit are recognised progressively. 20% is recognised at the signing of S& P agreement and the rest over the course of development and ~40% recognised upon completion, so perhaps when it TOP in 2022/23 then the bulk will be recognised. Meanwhile, there is earnings visibility.  I don' t think recent overseas sales like Dublin landings have been fully recognised, as the sale not completed yet. Interesting to watch next few quarters.  Positive thing is that they have ~$400+ million in cash sitting in their balance sheet so they won' t have problems paying off their 2 tranches of retail bonds maturing this Nov and Mar 2020. But unsure if this will lead to a re-rating of the stock.  If they launch developments overseas, then may have a meaningful re-rating as there is visibility on further development profits.  Think the biggiest share price driver in 2020 will be special dividends after they delever and there is excess cash, which they will return to shareholders (similar to 2014). Both CEO and deputy CEO collectively own ~70% of OHL. Will be a big payday for them.
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Goldfinger Supreme	27-Aug-2019 21:06        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good observation - Yes the $400+m cash balance should allay fears of bond repayment ability and default concerns for Nov 2019 and May 2020, which led to its current sorry state.i reread the announcement and presentation again and am cautiously optimistic now. There seem to be quite a lot of unbilled Payments coming in. They may have finally learnt their lesson. raptor87      ( Date: 27-Aug-2019 19:13) Posted: I somehow didn' t expect strong earnings (but of course wanted to be pleasantly surprised). Sales were good this year, but these are residential development in SG and revenues and profit are recognised progressively. 20% is recognised at the signing of S& P agreement and the rest over the course of development and ~40% recognised upon completion, so perhaps when it TOP in 2022/23 then the bulk will be recognised. Meanwhile, there is earnings visibility.  I don' t think recent overseas sales like Dublin landings have been fully recognised, as the sale not completed yet. Interesting to watch next few quarters.  Positive thing is that they have ~$400+ million in cash sitting in their balance sheet so they won' t have problems paying off their 2 tranches of retail bonds maturing this Nov and Mar 2020. But unsure if this will lead to a re-rating of the stock.  If they launch developments overseas, then may have a meaningful re-rating as there is visibility on further development profits.  Think the biggiest share price driver in 2020 will be special dividends after they delever and there is excess cash, which they will return to shareholders (similar to 2014). Both CEO and deputy CEO collectively own ~70% of OHL. Will be a big payday for them.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 27-Aug-2019 18:32) Posted: Well, you are sharp. Results are out.  Not good but not bad.  Final dividend of 0.68cents, so nice for Christmas shopping.  Profits down. Gearing down and sales up.  Think its a good building base going forward.
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raptor87 Member	27-Aug-2019 19:13        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I somehow didn' t expect strong earnings (but of course wanted to be pleasantly surprised). Sales were good this year, but these are residential development in SG and revenues and profit are recognised progressively. 20% is recognised at the signing of S& P agreement and the rest over the course of development and ~40% recognised upon completion, so perhaps when it TOP in 2022/23 then the bulk will be recognised. Meanwhile, there is earnings visibility.  I don' t think recent overseas sales like Dublin landings have been fully recognised, as the sale not completed yet. Interesting to watch next few quarters.  Positive thing is that they have ~$400+ million in cash sitting in their balance sheet so they won' t have problems paying off their 2 tranches of retail bonds maturing this Nov and Mar 2020. But unsure if this will lead to a re-rating of the stock.  If they launch developments overseas, then may have a meaningful re-rating as there is visibility on further development profits.  Think the biggiest share price driver in 2020 will be special dividends after they delever and there is excess cash, which they will return to shareholders (similar to 2014). Both CEO and deputy CEO collectively own ~70% of OHL. Will be a big payday for them.  Goldfinger      ( Date: 27-Aug-2019 18:32) Posted: Well, you are sharp. Results are out.  Not good but not bad.  Final dividend of 0.68cents, so nice for Christmas shopping.  Profits down. Gearing down and sales up.  Think its a good building base going forward. raptor87      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 18:51) Posted: Email the company that they outsource their IR work to. :
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Goldfinger Supreme	27-Aug-2019 18:32        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well, you are sharp. Results are out.  Not good but not bad.  Final dividend of 0.68cents, so nice for Christmas shopping.  Profits down. Gearing down and sales up.  Think its a good building base going forward. raptor87      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 18:51) Posted: Email the company that they outsource their IR work to. :) Goldfinger      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 17:44) Posted: How did you get the 27 Aug results date
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Goldfinger Supreme	27-Aug-2019 12:00        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi - Anyone knows if the OX is announcing results today?  Or when will they be doing so?  I personally expect good results due to the recent Chevron divestment and increasing property sales.  Any clues?
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Goldfinger Supreme	24-Aug-2019 20:18        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well done! This is reason for forum haha. raptor87      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 18:51) Posted: Email the company that they outsource their IR work to. :) Goldfinger      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 17:44) Posted: How did you get the 27 Aug results date
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raptor87 Member	24-Aug-2019 18:51        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Email the company that they outsource their IR work to. :) Goldfinger      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 17:44) Posted: How did you get the 27 Aug results date? raptor87      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 14:52) Posted: Some undeveloped land in the landbank. These are also unencumbered. Can take time to develop them. As more SG properties sold, more earnings visibility (these are recognised by stage of completion). Then we have some lumpier items like completion of sale of UK and Ireland developments, as well as Cheveron house.  Will be interesting to see next few quarters' results and whether there willl be special dividends.  Full-year  FY19  results will be out on 27 Aug.
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Goldfinger Supreme	24-Aug-2019 17:44        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	How did you get the 27 Aug results date? raptor87      ( Date: 24-Aug-2019 14:52) Posted: Some undeveloped land in the landbank. These are also unencumbered. Can take time to develop them. As more SG properties sold, more earnings visibility (these are recognised by stage of completion). Then we have some lumpier items like completion of sale of UK and Ireland developments, as well as Cheveron house.  Will be interesting to see next few quarters' results and whether there willl be special dividends.  Full-year  FY19  results will be out on 27 Aug.  mikewb21      ( Date: 21-Aug-2019 12:33) Posted: Actually, Ox Singapore sales is fine. Its just the overseas properties like Cyprus, China and Myanmar, not much update.
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raptor87 Member	24-Aug-2019 14:52        raptor87 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Some undeveloped land in the landbank. These are also unencumbered. Can take time to develop them. As more SG properties sold, more earnings visibility (these are recognised by stage of completion). Then we have some lumpier items like completion of sale of UK and Ireland developments, as well as Cheveron house.  Will be interesting to see next few quarters' results and whether there willl be special dividends.  Full-year  FY19  results will be out on 27 Aug.  mikewb21      ( Date: 21-Aug-2019 12:33) Posted: Actually, Ox Singapore sales is fine. Its just the overseas properties like Cyprus, China and Myanmar, not much update.
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mikewb21 Senior	21-Aug-2019 12:33        mikewb21 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Actually, Ox Singapore sales is fine. Its just the overseas properties like Cyprus, China and Myanmar, not much update.
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Goldfinger Supreme	18-Aug-2019 17:05        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Based on the link: - Caveat - this is based on the total units sold versus the total project units, and does not factor in yet to be launched units, so am more conservative here.  Generally, the sold rate is not bad, as for the two Mayfairs and Kent Ridge, only a limited number of units have been launched, so the take up rates are generally higher than below.  Very very interesting.  So we need to monitor Affinity, Mayfair Modern and Kent Ridge, to have a clear view of how OX will perform in SG. Riverfront - 73 percent Affinity - 54 precent Mayfair Gardens - 72 percent ​ Mayfair Modern - 19 percent Kent Ridge - 38 percent   mikewb21      ( Date: 18-Aug-2019 09:02) Posted: Haha, dont know how to attached my screenshot, very un-user friendly. Attached the URL: https://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateIIWeb/price/search.action You go click these properties, will show how many units sold and unsold to date
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Goldfinger Supreme	18-Aug-2019 09:12        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	These 4-5 SG props sales will cause Ox to reap or lose big. Last fortress are the Stevens hotels. But SG hotels are strong now with the probs in HK. mikewb21      ( Date: 18-Aug-2019 09:02) Posted: Haha, dont know how to attached my screenshot, very un-user friendly. Attached the URL: https://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateIIWeb/price/search.action You go click these properties, will show how many units sold and unsold to date
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Goldfinger Supreme	18-Aug-2019 09:06        Goldfinger About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks Mike. Much appreciated. And reminds us why. This Forum is useful for sharing such data. mikewb21      ( Date: 18-Aug-2019 08:50) Posted: Sorry folks, forgot to change the month, updated liao. Data is from URA market data. They published every 15th of the month to reflect the previous month sale. Very useful index. Think for 2019, Oxley will sell approx. 1000-1200 units for their singapore residential properties. Quite credible, they should be among the top 5 singapore property developer for 2019, in terms of sale of singapore residential properties. Cheers :)
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