Updates of Prediction (Realized)

1) Noble Group (Track Record)   

2 Nov, 3, Nov:  I predicted a rise when Noble Group was falling till from a high 1.03 to 0.99.               
                          Others claimed will drop further & fake break point. [I advocate a rise, despite most advocate a further fall]
5 Nov: I predicted a rise. Market closed at              1.045 from 0.99.             

6 Nov:              I still predicted a rise. Market closed at              1.55             
7 Nov: I predicted a new point hit, while people are cautious. Market closed at              1.065.
8 Nov:          Market closed at          1.045,          down from 1.065. The first fall, which i on 7 Nov predicted a favorable selling price from 1.065. After which 8 Nov afternoon will be hard to sell.
11 Nov & 12 Nov:    I warned of a fall with 13 Nov a shock going to happen despite many people are being too complacency & on high side. Market closed at    1.08.     
13 Nov:    I predicted a shock last week, highlighting a [Big Fall] on 11 Nov. Market experienced the biggest fall from    1.08 to 1.015, closed at 1.05.
There will be no further prediction of Noble Group.

With Effect from today, i will close my prediction for Noble Group.       
Due to time-consuming factor, i will not predict for months on day-to-day basis.       

The Beginning of Another Prediction (upon Du Shen Query)
18 Nov night (Noble closed 1.08 after extending gains for a few days)- I boldly predicted Noble Group's fall will be just a matter of time, a matter of months to come.
19 Nov- Market closed down to          1.065  from 1.08          (The first fall after few days continuous gain)
20 Nov- Market closed at 1.08.         
20 Nov closing: I predicted the range will fall within $1.075 and $1.09. As the fall is still far from months ahead.
21 Nov closing:        Market closed at 1.08.   (Market hit a low $1.07 & high of $1.09)
There will be no further prediction of Noble Group.. Enjoy 

2) Swiber (Track Record)
7 Nov :  Market closed 0.68.  I predicted a fall to 0.64 within 1-2 week, while most claimed uptrend.         
8 Nov:    Market closed          0.665.
9 Nov:  I predict Swiber will    fall to 0.64 within 4 days (14 Nov).
11 Nov:          Market closed          0.67
12 Nov:          Market closed          0.67
13 Nov:          Market closed          0.655
14 Nov:        Market falls to         0.635, and closed at 0.645.
Ended Prediction on 14 Nov

On 16 Nov-                Swiber closed at        0.64.  I forecast Du Shen forecast is half correct.       
On 18 Nov-                Swiber closed at      0.64. (without dropping nor extending gain)
On 18 Nov night-   I asked DuShen to carry on with his forecast
On 19 Nov-            Market closed lower at      0.635
On 20 Nov-            Market closed lower at      0.63
On 21 Nov-            Market closed lower at      0.625
Ended Prediction on 21 Nov

3) Midas (Track Record)
19 Nov night-            I predicted Midas of $0.50 is an over-priced stock. Its run up from $0.35 to $0.50 within a year is not sustainable, as its IPO only valued at $0.115. Given the speculators pushed to the limit of $0.50,            downtrend is to be expected.
20 Nov-              I  warned that 941k of Midas is            a poor support.  The value of Midas is overly aggregated & will            fall once support is gone.
21 Nov night-          Though there is a bit volume upped for Midas, but        it will be        a falling trend in due time. As its value is of speculative level.
Updates:  From 19 Nov - 21 Nov, market closed at $0.50          continuously  for 3 days  without any gains.
22 Nov -  Midas falls to $0.495 (The 1st fall, as predicted
24 Nov -      I foresee that the downtrend will continue.
25 Nov -    Market closed at $0.495    continuously for 6 days without any gains
26 Nov -    Market closed at $0.495 

4) Wilmar (Track Record)
19 Nov Afternoon- Market was at $3.63. I boldy predicted Wilmar    will fall below $3.63, from this speculative price, in which shareholders only bought at $3, and anything above $3.15 is a speculative amount.    Market closed at                $3.62. [I warned that market momentum moving well far $3, and into speculative price of $3.15. The market is bound to suffer a major drop in weeks to come despite naive people insisted on uptrend]               
20 Nov- Market fall to                  $3.52.                                (The first fall and significant losses of $0.11)                               
On 20 Nov closing:  I predicted that there will be                several downfalls beneath $3.52.                                The downfall will continue with a bigger drop awaiting.                         
21 Nov-  Market fall to                $3.48
22 Nov-  Market rises to                $3.55
23 & 24 Nov- I  foresee several  tornadoes  below the " current speculated price" , & dark clouds awaiting.
                                                      The downtrend is gathering significant speculated buyers, before it move downwards significantly.
25 Nov-    Market closed    $3..59      I saw    a very high risk    at current level.       
26 Nov-    Market closed    $3..58     (a point lower)

Updates of Prediction (Realized)

1) Noble Group (Track Record)   

2 Nov, 3, Nov:  I predicted a rise when Noble Group was falling till from a high 1.03 to 0.99.               
                          Others claimed will drop further & fake break point. [I advocate a rise, despite most advocate a further fall]
5 Nov: I predicted a rise. Market closed at              1.045 from 0.99.             

6 Nov:              I still predicted a rise. Market closed at              1.55             
7 Nov: I predicted a new point hit, while people are cautious. Market closed at              1.065.
8 Nov:          Market closed at          1.045,          down from 1.065. The first fall, which i on 7 Nov predicted a favorable selling price from 1.065. After which 8 Nov afternoon will be hard to sell.
11 Nov & 12 Nov:    I warned of a fall with 13 Nov a shock going to happen despite many people are being too complacency & on high side. Market closed at    1.08.     
13 Nov:    I predicted a shock last week, highlighting a [Big Fall] on 11 Nov. Market experienced the biggest fall from    1.08 to 1.015, closed at 1.05.
There will be no further prediction of Noble Group.

With Effect from today, i will close my prediction for Noble Group.       
Due to time-consuming factor, i will not predict for months on day-to-day basis.       

The Beginning of Another Prediction (upon Du Shen Query)
18 Nov night (Noble closed 1.08 after extending gains for a few days)- I boldly predicted Noble Group's fall will be just a matter of time, a matter of months to come.
19 Nov- Market closed down to          1.065  from 1.08          (The first fall after few days continuous gain)
20 Nov- Market closed at 1.08.         
20 Nov closing: I predicted the range will fall within $1.075 and $1.09. As the fall is still far from months ahead.
21 Nov closing:        Market closed at 1.08.   (Market hit a low $1.07 & high of $1.09)
There will be no further prediction of Noble Group.. Enjoy 

2) Swiber (Track Record)
7 Nov :  Market closed 0.68.  I predicted a fall to 0.64 within 1-2 week, while most claimed uptrend.         
8 Nov:    Market closed          0.665.
9 Nov:  I predict Swiber will    fall to 0.64 within 4 days (14 Nov).
11 Nov:          Market closed          0.67
12 Nov:          Market closed          0.67
13 Nov:          Market closed          0.655
14 Nov:        Market falls to         0.635, and closed at 0.645.
Ended Prediction on 14 Nov

On 16 Nov-                Swiber closed at        0.64.  I forecast Du Shen forecast is half correct.       
On 18 Nov-                Swiber closed at      0.64. (without dropping nor extending gain)
On 18 Nov night-   I asked DuShen to carry on with his forecast
On 19 Nov-            Market closed lower at      0.635
On 20 Nov-            Market closed lower at      0.63
On 21 Nov-            Market closed lower at      0.625
Ended Prediction on 21 Nov

3) Midas (Track Record)
19 Nov night-            I predicted Midas of $0.50 is an over-priced stock. Its run up from $0.35 to $0.50 within a year is not sustainable, as its IPO only valued at $0.115. Given the speculators pushed to the limit of $0.50,            downtrend is to be expected.
20 Nov-              I  warned that 941k of Midas is            a poor support.  The value of Midas is overly aggregated & will            fall once support is gone.
21 Nov night-          Though there is a bit volume upped for Midas, but        it will be        a falling trend in due time. As its value is of speculative level.
Updates:  From 19 Nov - 21 Nov, market closed at $0.50          continuously  for 3 days  without any gains.
22 Nov -  Midas falls to $0.495 (The 1st fall, as predicted)
24 Nov -      I foresee that the downtrend will continue.
25 Nov -    Market closed at $0.495    continuously for 6 days without any gains
26 Nov -    Market closed at $0.495 

By Carey Wong 
Tue, 26 Nov 2013, 10:28:56 SGT

Wilmar International Limited (WIL) recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional to manufacture corn starch in China ? this is its second commercial collaboration with Tereos. However, we do not see any immediate boost to earnings. Meanwhile, we note that WIL?s share price has done very well (+17%) since our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep but as WIL looks fairly priced around current levels versus unchanged S$3.55 fair value (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), we opt to maintain our HOLD rating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70.

Forms China corn starch JV
Wilmar recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional called Liaoning Yihai Kerry Tereos Starch Technology Co Ltd. The move will see Tereos acquiring 49% of the JV company from WIL?s subsidiary for RMB208m the JV will engage in the operation of a corn starch facility in Tieling (Liaoning Province) with a current annual processing capacity of 700k tons of corn. According to WIL, the acquisition marks the second important step in the development of the major partnership with Tereos in the rapidly growing market for starch-based products in China. However, we do not see any immediate impact on earnings.

Shares already ran up sharply
Meanwhile, the recent recovery in CPO (crude palm oil) prices has lifted plantation stocks (WIL rose as much as 17% after our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep), but we believe that some of these optimism may be overdone. For one, WIL is still a net buyer of vegetable oil (including CPO) and a continued rise of input prices could result in a margin squeeze for its consumer packs. Note that because cooking oil is an essential food item, it may also be subject to price caps should inflation in China rises faster than the government?s guidance. Secondly, the enthusiasm over the Indonesian government?s doubling of the bio-diesel mandate to 10% blend may be a bit premature. A recent Platts report suggested that the Pertamina tender may not offer as fat a profit margin as what the market is expecting. 

Maintain HOLD with S$3.55 fair value
Currently, WIL is trading close to our unchanged fair value of S$3.55 (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), suggesting that the stock looks fairly priced around here. From a historical perspective, we see that WIL?s valuation is already close to its 2-year average. Hence, we opt to maintain our  HOLDrating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70. Last: $3.58.