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NOL
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hem2998
Veteran |
19-May-2014 10:31
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so is current px good entry? |
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sgng123
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19-May-2014 00:53
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Check out the slot cost reduction chart provided in 1Q report, u find that the most significant drop is always 2Q while 3Q and 4Q basically flat with 1Q showing minor reduction. So pray hard 2Q 14 would follow the trend and new ships delivered in 2013 would be deployed and cut the slot cost by 100-150. After that hope that peak season return and push the current freight rate up by 100-150 per TEU as seasonally. Would not see very big profit this year due to weak freight rate and contining slot cost reduction into 2Q15 where u should had the full picture of how much slot cost reduction achieved after 3 years of new ships deliveries and charters returned. Chartered returned in 1Q did little to reduce slot cost as new ships delivered not deployed to enjoy the reduction in fuel cost, they still squeezing out the most out of charters returning in 2Q as seen by the 95% load factor with transpacific load factor jumping from 85% to 92%. Hope transpacific load factor can improve further above 95% with the G6 deployment in 2Q. Expect the group average blended freight rate to be similar to 2013 not much changed but slot cost reduction this year would push ship to profit .
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Lucky03
Elite |
18-May-2014 22:05
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Privatization and M&A aside, if NOL accelerates its cost saving, it may see as much as $100m savings for Q2. So far, US economy is rebounding strongly from the severe winter that delayed some of the trading and logistic activities in Q1. We may see NOL turning a profit in Q2 this year compared to last FY loss of US$120m. At worst probably narrow loss to US$20m+. It will probably seen its worst by then. Q3 should be a full fledged recovery when it should have realised its full effect of its multi years fleet renewal exercise that yielded the much needed and significant cost savings and fuel efficiency needed to combat the lower freight rates that may be taken as the new norm. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
18-May-2014 19:48
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funny thing is $2.80 back in 2004 it is still a flop and investors don want to privatise. In the end temasek got over 67% of NOl shares and half of it is in the range ofit offer price. The one that hurting the most is temasek now they had to support ship just to preserve their investment values plus they just invested another US $4B a few year back for fleet renewal programe lol double screw and now maybe really need a management shakeup and start to retrench people. They better employed CEO from maersk to help them in managing cost and start the divestment spinoff. No more favor given to associated companies , it time to burn down all the broken bridge and establish new one. Got to be ruthless in business world to make money else all got eaten up by ungrateful peep. |
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ascend88
Master |
18-May-2014 17:49
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For me ..no 2$ no sell ... And it can easily reach that price ... Look at smrt ... 1.33 now from 1.02$ .... And Pple are still waiting for 70c
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sgng123
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18-May-2014 14:57
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don worry too much about the privatisation, temasek had already sink in US $4B in the fleet renewal programme. Anything lower than US $4B is unacceptable to shareholders as the future benefit of having a new cost structure would be higher. Just look at maesrk performance and u know that those fule efficent ships coupled with high load factor would produce good sustainable profit. NOl still got 2 phrase of slot cost reduction in 2Q14 and 2Q15. 2Q14 slot cost reduction in the range of 100-150 TEU due to the 11 new ships delivered in 2013 and 80-100 TEU for 2Q15 for remaining 8 new ship delivered this year. Plus aeith the mega alliance all up by 2H14, freight rate would remain stable andhope normal peak season returned. Not tot mention NOL still got their hidden jewel terminal asset not unlock yet and logistic business to be divest off. We just don know how much future/hidden value NOL had ....
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ascend88
Master |
17-May-2014 23:25
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Best time to do M&A... While the share price is low | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-May-2014 22:10
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NEWS IN FOCUS MAGAZINES
Hapag-Lloyd major shareholder reignites NOL speculation Hamburg: Such is the perceived need for rapid fleet build up and consolidation in container shipping that the lead shareholder of Hapag-Lloyd, fresh from merging with Chile?s CSAV, is already talking up the idea of joining forces with another line, with Singapore?s NOL mentioned. Hapag-Lloyd?s merger with CSAV makes it the fourth largest containerline in the world, but still some distance behind the top three. Lead Hapag-Lloyd shareholder Klaus-Michael Kuehne told German media that he wanted to add another partner to the merged entity. He mentioned NOL, saying its Singapore location tied with Hapag?s Hamburg base with give it very strong bases in Asia and Europe. NOL has been linked with Hapag-Lloyd repeatedly since 2008. Attention is now turning to Hamburg?s other containerline, Hamburg Sud, with speculation that it might be courted to join forces with Hapag-Lloyd and CSAV. [23/04/14] |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-May-2014 19:06
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1.30 good enough for me :) lol !
君 子 报 仇 ， 十 年 不 晚 . Temasek failed in 2004, they are welcomed to try again in 2014 !
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jj7007
Veteran |
17-May-2014 17:34
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Lets call temasek again, tell them no need 2.80.. 1.80 to privatise now I accept!! haha |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-May-2014 15:55
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Asia-Europe Spot Rates Drop, But Spike Expected Submitted by glavigne on May 16, 2014 4:18PM EDT Spot container freight rates as measured by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index dropped on the Asia-Europe lane this week, but Asia-U.S. rates climbed. The SCFI for North Europe fell 8.1 percent in the week of May 16. Asia-Europe rates decreased in the week ending May 16, following three weeks of increases, which was the longest consecutive upward trend since January 2012. In the week of May 16, the index rate from Shanghai to northern European ports fell 8.1 percent week-to-week to $1,287 per TEU, losing $114 of the $324 collectively gained in the previous three weeks, according to the latest SCFI data issued by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. This week?s rate is down 27.1 percent or $478 since the beginning of 2014, but up 92.7 percent year-over-year. Jean-Marie Lamay, head of commodity and freight solutions at HSH Nordbank, told the JOC that he expects to see another loss next week, the week ending May 23, followed by a spike in the week of May 30 ahead of the June 1 general rate increases. According to Lamay, 10 carriers ? including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, CSCL, OOCL, Hanjin Shipping, APL, Yang Ming, UASC and Evergreen ? plan to implement GRIs of $300 to $600 per TEU in the Asia-North Europe lane, effective June 1. ?The last time we had 10 carriers announcing a GRI was in July of 2013,? Lamay said. ?Carriers achieved a 95 percent realization. That?s the highest success we?ve seen in terms of GRI.? Lamay said for this upcoming round of GRIs on June 1, he expects to see gains of around $375 to $380 per TEU in the week ending May 30. The SCFI for the Mediterranean declined 2.3 percent in the week of May 16. Hapag-Lloyd also plans to implement a rate hike of $750 per TEU in the trade lane starting June 9, and NYK Line aims to boost rates by $940 per TEU, beginning June 15. However, Lamay said it?s unlikely these GRIs will be achieved, as they don?t have the necessary support from other container lines to demand these hikes. The spot rate from Shanghai to the Mediterranean ports declined 2.3 percent week-to-week to $1,562 per TEU, losing $36 of the $416 achieved in the prior three weeks. The rate to the Mediterranean is down 12.8 percent or $229 from Jan. 1, but up 100.5 percent year-over-year. Alphaliner has predicted that total weekly capacity in the Asia-North Europe trade will grow 6.4 percent by August, which could trigger a carrier showdown, as rate volatility is expected to continue. Asia-U.S. Rates Rise The Shanghai-U.S. West Coast index rose 4.2 percent in the week of May 16. Asia-U.S. rates rose in the week of May 16, following Transpacific Stabilization Agreement carriers? recommended rate increase of $300 per FEU to the U.S. West Coast and $400 per FEU to all other U.S. destinations, effective May 15. The rate from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast was $1,987 per FEU, up 4.2 percent or $80 from last week. The rate had dropped a total of $16 in the previous three weeks, holding on to most of the $115 gained around the mid-April general rate increase recommended by TSA lines. The rate is up 9.5 percent or $172 above the Jan. 1 level, but remains down 1.2 percent year-over-year. The Drewry benchmark rate from Hong Kong to Los Angeles was flat again this week, sitting at $1,850 per FEU for the third week in a row, although the analyst expects a brief uptick from the mid-May GRIs. The SCFI for the U.S. East Coast rose 3.3 percent in the week of May 16. The SCFI rate from Shanghai to the U.S. East Coast was $3,424 per FEU, up 3.3 percent or $108 from last week, following three weeks of no positive movement. The current rate is up 9.1 percent or $287 from Jan. 1, and up 8.0 percent year-over-year. Transpacific Stabilization Agreement carriers in the eastbound Pacific still plan to implement a peak-season surcharge of $400 per 40-foot container, starting June 15. TSA members also announced a recommended rate hike of $700 per 40-foot container on beef, pork and poultry shipments in the westbound trans-Pacific, beginning July 1. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-May-2014 12:49
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Thanks, Markie. I googled and found this below.
Why is Temasek Holdings paying $2.82 BILLION to buy back all the shares of Neptune Orient Line, when it had declared to divest itself from all ownership of viable GLC operations ? If one is to relook at all the reported outflow of funds from Temasek Holdings for 2004 alone, one can only wonder if there is a bottomless depth in Temasek's pocket: 29 January 2004 - Temasek pay US$45million for 7.5% stake in India's Supply Chain Manager. 18 February 2004 - Temasek pay S$43.7million for an increase of 0.56% stake in India's ICICI Bank, raising its shareholdings from 6.72% to 7.28%. 3 March 2004 - Temasek pay US$765.8million for 5% stake in Malaysia's Telekoms. (No follow-up during March 2004 to August 2004, anyone who did ? ) Temasek's NOL offer 'fair but not compelling' HSBC advises investors to keep holdings if they are confident of long-term prospects but says those wishing to sell could do so if the market price was higher By Nicholas Fang TEMASEK Holdings' $2.82-billion cash offer for all the shares of Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) that it does not already own is 'fair but not compelling', said NOL independent financial adviser HSBC. In a circular issued to shareholders yesterday, HSBC said that shareholders who wished to realise their investment in NOL immediately should consider selling their shares on the open market if they can obtain a higher price than Temasek's offer price. However, shareholders who are 'confident of the long-term prospects of the group' were advised to retain their shares and not accept the offer. Temasek Holdings stunned the market earlier last month when it announced its offer for NOL at $2.80 a share. The Singapore investment company announced the offer after buying NOL shares on the open market and pushing its stake past the 30 per cent mark that triggers a mandatory takeover offer under corporate laws. HSBC said that factors in favour of the Temasek offer included the fact that the offer price of $2.80 per share is higher than any adjusted daily closing price in the period since NOL's acquisition of its APL liner arm in 1997 up to the offer announcement date. 'The premium of the offer price over the historical share price of NOL in the observation period we have selected is in line with that of selected tender offer transactions in Singapore,' HSBC said. However, it also noted that the adjusted daily closing price for NOL in the period since the date the offer was announced up to the latest practicable date has consistently exceeded the offer price. The shares have closed above Temasek's $2.80 bid price every day after the offer was announced. HSBC also said Temasek's offer valued the 36-year-old shipping line at a price-to-earnings multiple which was below the mean and median of comparable companies. It recommended that shareholders who wished to realise all or part of their investment in NOL now, but were unable to obtain a price higher than the offer price on the open market, could consider accepting Temasek's offer. A Temasek spokesman said yesterday: 'The opinion in the NOL circular has no new and material information on the company. 'We recommend that all NOL shareholders carefully read the independent financial adviser's opinion and the NOL board's recommendation based on the appropriate investment horizons. 'We wish to reiterate that our offer of $2.80 a share is an all-cash, firm offer, which closes on Sept 15 at 3.30pm.' HSBC noted that NOL had said that, should APL be reclassified by the United States government as a controlled carrier if Temasek's stake in NOL edged above 50 per cent, the financial impact on NOL is unlikely to be material. It said that NOL had told them that in the event of a loss of business due to such a reclassification, the financial impact would be immaterial as assets involved could be redeployed to serve other customers or trades. NOL shares ended yesterday three cents lower at $2.82 per share with 3.95 million shares changing hands. This news report was published in the Straits Times dated 3 September 2004, which will be archived after three days. http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,4386,270317-1094075940,00.html?
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Markie
Senior |
17-May-2014 11:07
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Temasek attempted to privatise NOL in the past but it failed (obviously due to low ball offer again).
So even if privatise, I won't expect any extravaganza.
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-May-2014 10:00
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NOL has taken all but 1 of its new order and will push them out while retiring or idling older ships or return those chartered at higher cost. The bigger and more fuel efficient ships has been proven to help lower docking cost. While the 2015 contracted freight rate may be 3-5% lower than last year, the improvement in spot freight rate is encouraging as the 3 major alliances start to bite and roll out series of GRIs and hopefully they are more sustainable.
US had a very bad and prolonged winter in Q1 that adversely affected the logistic supply chain. NOL was not spared. We know US economy has since rebounded strongly from the severe winter. Europe is also recovering and global trade is improving. The following will have big impact on NOL : 1. Realising cost saving and efficiency at faster pace through more aggressive replacement and retiring. In fact, older ships are commanding good value as India is bidding for them aggressively for demolition. 2. Provide market leadership through the G6 alliance to push and sustain the regular GRIs and make them stick. 3. As sgng constantly highlighted, divest non core assets to focus and do very well for port to port service and to nurse the balance sheet to a stronger state, improve gearing and cash flow and reduce borrowing cost. 4 Pray that the world economy continues to improve and global trade increases at faster rate than projected and older ships are being retired or idled at faster rate to rebalance the supply and demand equation. 5. Privatization ? A bit far fetched but not impossible given so many cases these days. NOL Q2 result last FY was a loss of US$120m. NOL should have no reason not to do much better than that for Q2 this year to be release 7 Aug. Hope they will give shareholders a good National Day gift ! lol. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
17-May-2014 01:36
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Olam reported a three fold increase in profit for 1Q lol . Temasek know it beforehand, they always do this kind of takeover when the target company is going to recover. Those who sell must be cursing temasek for bluffing them with share offer. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
17-May-2014 01:32
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container shipping is moving toward being a commodity like oil, steel etc. Nobody going to pay a premium for quality service and everybody going for the basic service of port to port mode. NOL management should wake up and start to divest their non core asset and unlock hidden value for all share holders, in short sell off their terminal and logistic business and use the proceed to reduce debt and strengthen working capital. Focus on how to squeeze out more from keeping ships fully loaded on both end and cutting service to destination where those fuel efficient ships not able to be deployed due to under invested port. Maybe it is already in progress since we see a management shakeup earlier this year and a shift toward efficency in 1Q result. Hope they divest away terminal and logistic business, follow by a privatisation by temasek, best for investors since don need to wait for a few more years for their investment to bear fruit .
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foucs69
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16-May-2014 22:53
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most BOX company is losing $$$$$$$$$$$$$ not building more TEU and will earn more$$$$$$$$$..........................is what route n connection u have.........................big ship most developing country port can use at all...................................... too bad our another local box contender PIL is not listed...if not will be one interesting counter |
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-May-2014 22:38
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JOC ? Maritime News ? Container Lines ? APL
Carriers Extract Savings From Bottom Line As Profitability Slumps Greg Knowler, Senior Asia Editor | May 15, 2014 7:06PM EDT An aggressive focus on operating efficiency is reflected in the first quarter results of Neptune Orient Lines, Hanjin and Hapag-Lloyd, although the savings were not enough to offset the effects of excess capacity, high bunker prices and weak freight rates that continue to plague the industry. Nevertheless the results reinforce the reality of the container industry today where carriers are fully focused on cost control having virtually abandoned any hopes of being able to influence freight rates. Singapore?s Neptune Orient Lines, parent of container carrier APL, recorded a first quarter net loss of $98 million, compared with a $76 million profit in the first three months of 2013, although last year?s results included a $200 million gain from the sale of NOL?s headquarters building in Singapore. In Hamburg, Hapag-Lloyd saw its first quarter net loss widen to $163.9 million from $128.82 million in the same period last year as the carrier?s revenues were hit by increasing competition and steps toward the takeover of Chile-headquartered container line CSAV. Korean line Hanjin recorded a net loss of $219 million in the first quarter as sales decreased and freight rates fell. That the carriers are struggling for profitability in the current environment is hardly surprising given the glut of capacity flooding into service. Alphaliner in a recent forecast projected that the global fleet will expand by 5.5 percent in 2014, after growing 5.7 percent last year. As of February, 82 percent of all container ship tonnage on order is for ships of 7,500 TEUs and above, and 52 percent is for ships of 10,000 TEUs and above. In a bid to put the brakes on supply, container lines have been idling some of their surplus vessels. However, according to Alphaliner the idle container ship fleet has dropped to its lowest level since October last year, at 167 ships or 450,000 TEUs. Further reductions are expected as peak-season strings are resumed. With no short-term solutions to the excess capacity in service, the carriers have stepped up their cost-saving efforts. NOL managed to cut $80 million during first quarter as it kept the focus on cost management, operating efficiency and network optimization. In a note to investors, Citi Research said NOL should be able to achieve further savings of $300 million to $400 million this year. ?NOL is also trimming total available capacity, likely 3 to 5 percent, as charters expire or chartering out its owned vessels,? said Michael Beer, Citi Research vice president of Asia Pacific transportation research. ?With ongoing overcapacity and fairly muted demand, [Citi] believes yields are likely to remain relatively flattish this year along major East-West lanes, while intra-Asia trends continue to struggle as larger capacity is cascaded,? he said. Hanjin reduced its total fuel costs by 21.4 percent in the first quarter through using less fuel and a cut in bunker prices by 5.3 percent to $595 per ton. The Korean carrier said in a statement it expects profitability to improve, as the line is continuing its efforts to rationalize services, slow-steam vessels, return chartered ships early and scrap older vessels. ?Operating profit is expected to improve from the second quarter as continuous rate restoration and cost-cutting efforts since the second half of last year show full effect,? Hanjin said. Hapag-Lloyd has also been keeping a close eye on its costs, cutting $561 million last year and trimming another $117 million in the first quarter. But the carrier remained unimpressed by the bunker savings. ?This still represents a very high overall level that cannot be compensated for in any way by current freight rates, which are far too low,? the German container line said in a statement. Greater volumes at all three carriers were offset by falling freight rates per 40-foot container. NOL recorded a 6 percent drop in the revenue per box, while Hanjin said although volume grew by 0.7 percent, freight rates fell 2 percent. Hapag-Lloyd said in the first quarter the average freight rate was $1,422 per 20-foot container, a drop of $124 per TEU from a year ago. Orient Overseas (International) Ltd., the parent of OOCL, earlier reported a drop of 7 percent in revenue per 40-foot container. Contact Greg Knowler at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-May-2014 19:13
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APL, MOL and HMM launch new Americas service
By Michele Labrut from Panama APL, Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) and Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) will inaugurate their new Andes Express Service (AES) on the trade between South America West Coast - US East Coast on 19 May. The weekly service will have the following rotation: Valparaiso (Chile)-Callao(Peru)- Buenaventura (Colombia) Balboa (Panama)-Manzanillo (Panama)- Jacksonville-New York- Charleston Miami-Cartagena (Colombia)-Manzanillo (Panama)- Balboa- Buenaventura (Colombia)-Callao (Peru)-Valparaiso (Chile). This new service in six 2,700 teu-vessels with high reefer intake: MOL contributing three vessels, APL two and HMM one . The first voyage will begin from Valparaiso with the MOL vessel Inca voyage 041 calling ports on the South American West Coast, transiting the Panama Canal and later pursuing her voyage to the US East Coast. ?This new service will offer a fast transit time to the US market for reefers and dry commodities, with modern equipment and priority for handling for reefer cargo, ? APL head of Latin American Trade Efrain Osorio told Seatrade Global. ?APL is committed to the Latin American trade and after analysing markets requirements, we have decided to launchthis direct service that will bring direct, reliable and fast connections from the WCSA to the USEC. It offers also a direct service from Miami to Cartagena, while connecting to the global networks of services of APL in the ports of Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) and Balboa in Panama,? said Osorio. Published inAmericas, Asia, Containers Friday, 16 May 2014 06:34 |
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Lucky03
Elite |
15-May-2014 21:48
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I suspect it is the in-house traders playing intraday contra. 0.5c diff is good enough to cover their own trade charges and make profit.
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