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NOL
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earlybird14
Supreme |
22-May-2014 11:25
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Noble Olam Ezra NOL Indoagri, Straits Asia, Genting, another thing that you cannot put NOL in line among these bluechips is because unreasonable confident built in from Temasek holding. The rest all are not built in with this confident, they could be undervalued when bad new come and when go low will be good time to buy in. I just think that NOL has built in too much confident from Temasek holding and privatised, The bankrupcy risk is very high and it has met the SGX delisted rules which making loss for 3 years continually. There are too many risk on NOL, with so much risks, NOL is overvalued. if it break down to 50 cents or even lower, may be worth to consider.
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jj7007
Veteran |
22-May-2014 11:17
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Its not foresight my friend, its just simple logic and balls of steel. Makes sense for me to buy back these stocks at 1/3-1/2 price from where I sold in 2010.
While I don't dispute your explanation, and commend your homework done, I feel this is why the counter is 98c and not $2 or hallway of its high.
I believe alot of negativity like what u stated is priced in, everyone knows it but the price is supported here. The only thing that can see a massive sell off is the improvement of losses derailed majorly.
When shortist cover their tracks, its scary! Olam is an example, and same for smrt.
At the same time, u may not be vested and also not a supporter but respect other bros who put their hard earn $ here.
Rising tide lifts all ships. No one is so clever to stock pick
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hem2998
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22-May-2014 11:07
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I follow a simple rule. if the stock starts to break down, i will cut and run. my cost is currently 0.975. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
22-May-2014 11:01
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Noble Olam Ezra NOL Indoagri, Straits Asia, Genting, I salute your insight in buy low sell high skill. However, NOL shall not be put at the same line as these bluechips. NOL had made 3 continual year loss since 2011. 1Q in 2014 still making loss after receiving new vessels. Total loss in past 3 years are accummulated close to US 1 billion. in 2011, cash burnt till left 200 million, notes are issued for raising fund for new vessels. Vessels are delivered progressively, average of 200to 400 millions are paid for the new vessles each quarters since 2013. No new cash injected, no making money since 3 years time, vessels are delivered continually and payment must be made. Don' t look down the cash burnt, although it may look nothing to you.
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jj7007
Veteran |
22-May-2014 00:22
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My last trade with this counter was in 2009 2010 iirc.I missed the first run up, and when it drop a little, I went in at 1.50+ and held a while and sold 2.20 plus in that crazy one week. So it make sense to me to buy back at $1. I may sound bullish, but I have a good term view of these counters. I' m not here to hold and make just 10 bids every trade, and end up paying more losses than gains. Many stocks I talk about I seem very bullish maybe, but only because I buy them cheap before and sold them high in 2010. Noble Olam Ezra NOL Indoagri, Straits Asia, Genting, they were all trading like 2-3 times more when I sold it in 2010 compared to the price when I bought back in August. Some counters can trade, BUT NOL at this moment is for holding. Just like SMRT, you look short term and you may have sold of at 1.10 when it chiong up and you miss the boat already! Today it' s 1.40+, and I' m pissed I totally missed that counter haha.
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sgng123
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22-May-2014 00:05
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hardcore bull bro, NOL is just like that it would start to shit off lot of new investors who try to make fast money. Think it is cheaper, it go lower. Think the stock is doomed then it spring back to life with a vengence. I see before lot of time NOL spring back from the graveyard price of 0.50 - 0.80 that is like 10+ years ago, 911 and internet bust year are the worst, but when ship start it move it is very fast can recoup back it 3 years of decline in a matter of weeks or even days if the BB all came charging back. NOL free float share is actually very very few, 67% controlled by temasek, another 25+ controlled by brokerage houses not much for retail players to scoup up when it is charging. IT is very exciting to see NOL charging especially during 2006 when temasek fail in it privatisation bid, shit ship charged from 2.30 all the way to 5.00 in matter of weeks lol. i was making small trade there but laughing mine way to the small gain of hundred of dollar gain every day.
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Lucky03
Elite |
21-May-2014 23:47
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Stupid shorts numbers from SGX !
Total volume traded today 1,946,000 and SGX reports showed a total of 1.140,000 being shorted ! |
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jj7007
Veteran |
21-May-2014 23:46
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Bro, ur style say fundamental. Can i ask when u buy at $1, what is your time line view? Just to contra and bet on the last report or u really think that its rock bottom? I see many other companies as worrying than NOL. Even with the disappointing results (I was expecting better to be honest), did the price plummet? Did we see big sell down? Are investors shaken? 2-3% drop is nothing, many stocks dropped more since then. for example wilmar. All this negativity is already priced in, and you wont see another new low unless really the results is shocking. The current result is in line with expectation. That is the key, EXPECTATION. Many companies make alot more $, positive growth on revenue and EBIT but below expectation and sell off. Ever heard the saying, low expectation low possibility of disappointment? In short, how many of us feel stupid on hindsight not buying Citibank when it was $1, or AIG, or Sands when it dropped from $130 to $2 and now its $70+.. I myself buy Jardine C& C when it was $9 range and sold very fast when it was $12. Think i was clever during that time when everyone else was bleeding. WTF, now Jardine is like $50 almost! Long story short, with holding power and patience this ship will turn around. It has gone thru many crisis and is still here. It' s a biz cycle. You will be able to brag later that you bought when it was $1. When I buy Noble, IndoAgri, First Resource, Ezra in August, no one was touching them and no one was a believer. You can look at Indoagri thread, I was asking why no one is looking when it was low 80c and I bought when it was 77c. In the end I sold that at 1.04 and buy Bumi at low $1 and sold it very recently. That proceeds now I put in NOL, cuz I see this as bottom and safe range and the upside is definitely there. It will be black by this year, I' m very confident. Like some bro said, it can suddenly do a SMRT and chiong to $1.20 range. Why? Shortcovering maybe? BUT, one thing for sure is I ignore those who spread stupid lies and put NOL in the same breathe as blumont. Shows how blinded some people are, or they may be shorting and trying to shake you. When this turns around, you will be rewarded. Same for Cosco, already priced in the negative news. Just needs some time to turn around.
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Lucky03
Elite |
21-May-2014 23:45
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Stupid shorts numbers from SGX !
Total volume traded today 1,946,000 |
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Lucky03
Elite |
21-May-2014 22:21
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Four-Year High in US Shipper Optimism Regarding Freight Growth
Mark Szakonyi, Senior Editor | May 20, 2014 1:57PM EDT U.S. shippers haven?t been this optimistic about volume growth in the coming 12 months since The Hurt Locker won the Academy Award for Best Picture and an Icelandic volcano disrupted flights to and from Europe. Shippers surveyed by Wolfe Research in March and April on average expect their volume to rise 3.6 percent over the coming year ? the rosiest forecast since 2010. They expect railcar and intermodal growth to drive total freight volume, with each expanding 5 percent over the next 12 months. Domestic ground and ocean shipping traffic will expand on average 3 to 4 percent in the same period, shippers said. There are also positive signs for restocking and accumulation of inventory. About half of the 100 shippers surveyed said they are planning for more shipping activity, compared with only a quarter of them who said that three months ago. However only 16 percent said inventory stocks were somewhat or materially below targeted levels. The increase in shipping activity is set to kick into higher gear in the second half of 2014, thanks to pent-up demand following a brutal winter and acceleration of importing ahead of potential labor disruption at West Coast ports, according to the New York-based investment research firm focused on transportation. Sixty-three percent of surveyed shippers plan to make up for volume lost in the winter, while 37 percent think that traffic is lost completely, and 17 percent didn?t see their loads suffer at all. About half of the respondents have plans to accelerate imports, or are already doing so, due to fears the International Longshore and Warehouse Union will disrupt supply chains while negotiating with waterfront employers over a new labor contract that expires on June 30. More than half of the shippers surveyed are also planning to divert cargo to ports outside the U.S. West Coast, with East and Gulf coast ports the favorite (85 percent), followed by Canadian ports (55 percent). None of the shippers plan to divert imports through Mexican ports, a result of the extra sailing days from Asia and the higher cost of moving freight inland to the U.S. The forecasted ramp-up in shipping activity isn?t ballooning shippers? budgets, however. The shippers ? whose transportation budgets total more than $17 billion ? expect their transportation spend to expand 2.5 percent, a decrease from the 3 percent pace they expected last quarter. The pullback in forecasted budget growth is largely because of lower year-over-year fuel surcharges and shippers? belief that pricing growth will slow for most modes. Truckload pricing is the exception. Shippers are gearing up for truckload pricing to rise 2.4 percent over the next 12 months, a 1.9 percentage point increase from when they were surveyed last quarter. Shippers? truckload pricing expectations are the highest they have been in two years, after those surveyed saw rates rise on average 3.6 percent in the first three months of 2014. A tightening of capacity in the last three months and expectations for even less available truckload space are driving shippers? rate forecasts. Fifty-six percent of the surveyed shippers are planning for tighter truckload capacity, while 22 percent think capacity will stay constant and 2 percent expect a significant amount of new capacity to enter the market. ?With better demand, ongoing headwinds related to hours of service [rules] and with most [truckload] carriers maintaining their existing fleets, we believe [truckload] capacity will likely remain tight over the remainder of the year,? Wolfe Research said. The gap between truckload spot pricing and what shippers are paying in contracted rates expanded to the widest point since Wolfe Research being surveying shippers in 2007. Spot truckload rates were about 4.1 percent higher than contract rates in the first three months of 2014. ?While [truckload] spot rates have moderated from first quarter levels, overall we expect [truckload] spot rates to remain above contractual rates for the remainder of the year and to support higher contractual rate increases,? Wolfe Research said in its second quarter 2014 shipper survey report. With less-than-truckload capacity slated to stay balanced, shippers plan to pay 1.5 percent more for such services over the next 12 months. That?s a 0.3 percentage point decline from their pricing expectations last quarter. Even railcar pricing appears to be chugging upward at a slower pace, a move welcomed by shippers, many of whom are frustrated with poor service. Shippers told Wolfe Research that rail service during the winter was the worst it had been in nearly 10 years. Shippers rated BNSF Railway the harshest in terms of service, followed by CSX Transportation, Canadian National Railway and Union Pacific Railroad. Those surveyed said BNSF had the most severe capacity issues, followed by CSX, Norfolk Southern Railway and UP. Railcar shippers on average in the first quarter saw pricing rise 2.5 percent, outpacing all other transportation modes. Even though shippers? average pricing forecast was 0.4 percentage points less that what they experienced in the first three months, railcar pricing is still expected to rise 3 to 4 percent, Wolfe Research said. UP was the most aggressive in seeking railcar rate hikes in the first quarter, closely followed by BNSF. ?Overall rail pricing gains have decelerated recently due to some negative mix from fast-growing intermodal but weak coal volumes, while fewer legacy contract repricing opportunities for everyone but Union Pacific have also contributed to slower gains,? Wolfe Research said. Shippers are planning for far more moderate intermodal rail price increases after seeing rates on average inch up 1.3 percent in the first quarter. They expect the same level of price rises over the next 12 months, a slight decrease from the 1.7 percent rise shippers forecast last quarter. ?We believe intermodal rates ultimately remain driven by the direction of truckload pricing, as the floor for TL rates is typically the ceiling for intermodal pricing,? Wolfe Research said. ?So with rising TL pricing, we would expect to hear about a re-acceleration in intermodal pricing in next quarter?s survey.? The sharp deterioration in intermodal services, a result of the harsh winter and an uptick in volume, cost the railroads volume in the first quarter, according to the survey. Shippers said they diverted 2.9 percent of their volume from truck to rail in the same period, compared to a 3.4 percent conversion in the fourth quarter. Conversely, shippers moved 2.3 percent of their intermodal volume back to the highway in the first quarter, a steady uptick from the 1.1 percent shift in the last three months of 2013. Ultimately, the pace of intermodal conversion slowed to 0.6 percent in the first three months of this year, after hitting a 2.3 percent rate in the fourth quarter last year. That was the slowest rate of intermodal conversion among surveyed shippers in four years, Wolfe Research said. Following the winter doldrums, shippers told Wolfe Research they expect intermodal growth to hit a faster pace. Shippers plan to move 3.2 percent of their truckload volume to the rails, while about 1.4 percent of their volume will be shifted back to the highway. If this holds true, then railroads will see a 1.9 percent gain over the next six to 12 months, a marked decrease from the 4.8 percent gain predicted last quarter. The pace of shippers? intermodal conversion looks to slow in the short term, but be strong in the long term. Shippers on average expect 22 percent of their over-the-road volume to shift to rail over the next five years. That?s double the pace shippers predicted five years ago, Wolfe Research noted. The trend of shippers seeking slower, cheaper transportation will also squeeze air cargo carriers. The largest amount of surveyed shippers (37 percent) told Wolfe Research they plan to shift some freight from air carriers to ocean shipping. That?s even though they expect heavy air freight rates, excluding fuel, to fall 0.4 percent over the next 12 months. Ocean container shipping is also expected to drop in the same period, with shippers anticipating a 1.6 percent drop in rates, excluding fuel surcharges. Contact Mark Szakonyi at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter:@szakonyi_joc. |
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sgng123
Supreme |
21-May-2014 20:47
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nol is like that always surprise everyone, when everyone positive then it would surprise on the downside. When everyone htink it doomday then it rebound lol. Ship is not for those with faint heart, The bigger the hope the bigger the heart attack lol. Best is don let current depressing stuff distract u and focus on broad economy recovery that is happening in 2H14 through 2015. Next year might be the time where investor got rewarded due to the realisation of new slot cost for NOL in 2Q15. This 2Q14 would see another 8-10% reduction in slot cost for ship and depending on freight rate remaining the same as 2013 then it is turnaround for hip. IF freight rate weaken then small loss for 1H14, so don bet too much on the positive and negative side of ship, stay cool and watch from the side. 2Q15 would see the final part of cost saving for the slot cost reduction of about 5-7%. Got this thesis from past financial report on slot cost reduction 2011- 2013 which u can find in 1Q report. Slot cost reduction is key theme and it always happen in 2Q in 2012 and 2013, slot cost reduction = deployment of new ship = reduction of fuel oil used = cost saving. Having a better load factor or better efficiency also lower operating cost but it is only like 1-2% unlike slot cost reduction which offer 5-8%. Better load factor from G6 operation in transpacific would lower cost by another 1% maybe adding to the slot cost reduction in 2Q from deploying new ships which are more fuel efficient. Now Key theme for ship profitabilty lay in slot cost reduction and reducing amount of fuel oil used. By the way maersk report a 400+ mil profit double YoY due to cost saving and better efficiency already proven if u deployed newer ship with better fuel efficiency and improve efficiency then profit would come. Just need to endure a bit as benefit from the fleet renewal programme take like a few years to be realised, currently we are like 70% there. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
21-May-2014 19:10
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If this is true, it may hasten the privatization of NOL ! :) Given that Temasek willl not let NOL sink, the price is too low to call for rights, it will probably not going to get any hefty loan at good rate, then the only way forward is to take it private. LOL !
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pineapple123
Member |
21-May-2014 19:08
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I vested in NOL at 1, and I have to admit that, I underestimated how bad a state the company is in. When I vested, I thought the company had hit a rock bottom as its cost savings looked on track. But after recent quarter results, I am really quite worried and sian that I don' t see any foreseeable catalysts to help it reverse out of the current plight. It just seems to get worse and worse every quarter.. the only source of hope is a privatisation offer, which is really like praying for a miracle chance event.. sgng comments? you foresee any catalysts? |
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sgng123
Supreme |
21-May-2014 19:04
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it ok live with it he mr doom day, next time he would declare singapore going to fail pls migrate lol. He venting cos lost too much on ship he gone bogus. Never check the financial result and do his math then start his venting when he lost on rash trade, typical of newbies investor lol.
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jj7007
Veteran |
21-May-2014 18:18
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U amaze me with ur level of intelligence.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
21-May-2014 18:03
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NOL cash burn from 980million to 605million in 3 month times!!!!!!!!!! which 375Million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. So, simple calculation, NOL only left 2 more quarters or 6 month time to declare bankrupt?????? All the best to you all 1 dollar!!!!!! |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
21-May-2014 17:58
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MAERSK LINE K.O. NOL again. USD 454million Profit VS USD 98Mliion Loss!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3GG91Y/2983347166x0x756602/85af9264-9896-48b4-92af-7cdbf5b34305/Maersk%20presentation%20Q1%202014.pdf http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NOL%20Q1%202014%20Financial%20Results.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=296951 Maersk line are not going to be mercy to all the competitors who are still making loss including NOL. Present freight rate is enough for them to make billion dollar profit per year and seeing their competitors like NOL going to bankrupt and reduce the competition in container shipping market. NOL investors are still dreaming, your nighmare will never be end!!!!!!!! |
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hem2998
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21-May-2014 16:53
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SMRT was trading in a tight range a for 3-4 months at around its lows before it rocketed up. is NOL exhibiting the same pattern? It has been trading between 97c-$1.01 since feb. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
20-May-2014 23:25
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PUBLISHED MAY 20, 2014
Manufacturing drives Singapore's Q1 growth: MTI BYTEH SHI NING [email protected] @TehShiNingBT PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE Manufacturing's strength offset the slowdown in the pace of growth for both the services and construction sectors - enabling Singapore to keep growth steady at 4.9 per cent year-on-year in Q1, on par with what was achieved in Q4 2013 - PHOTO: SPH A REBOUND in manufacturing was the key driver behind Singapore's growth in the first quarter of 2014. The industrial sector grew 9.8 per cent year-on-year in Q1, faster than the 7 per cent expansion in the previous quarter. This was largely thanks to a sharp rebound in the biomedical manufacturing cluster, as well as stronger growth in the chemicals and transport engineering clusters, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Tuesday morning. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector grew at an annualised rate of 11.9 per cent, following the 10.4 per cent growth in the previous quarter. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
20-May-2014 23:04
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Growth in advanced countries slows, Britain jumps ahead: OECD
20 May 2014 18:38 PARIS: Economic growth in Japan, Germany and Britain picked up strongly in the first quarter of the year, leading output in advanced countries which slowed down overall, the latest OECD data showed on Tuesday. But the US economy, the biggest in the world, flagged and France also turned in a lagging performance. Over a full year, Britain led top economies, growing by 3.1 per cent, far outpacing the OECD average. Growth in the 34 advanced democracies covered by the OECD edged back to 0.4 per cent in the quarter from 0.5 per cent in the last quarter of last year. The latest OECD-area quarterly data is in line with recent signals that the recovery from the financial and eurozone debt crisis is sluggish and fragile, although some countries are pulling firmly ahead. In the 18-member eurozone, growth was low but steady at 0.2 per cent, although in the broader 28-member European Union growth slowed to 0.3 per cent from 0.4 per cent. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a policy forum for its members, said that its latest quarterly data "masks a wide spectrum of growth rates across countries." But on a quarterly basis, growth of gross domestic product accelerated "strongly" in Japan to 1.5 per cent from 1.0 per cent in the previous quarter. In Germany, the growth rate doubled to 0.8 per cent. "The United Kingdom also showed a strong growth of 0.8 per cent, following a growth rate of 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter." In the United States and France, the rate of growth was almost flat. In the previous quarter, the US economy had grown by 0.7 per cent and the French economy by 0.2 per cent. The Italian economy went into reverse in the first quarter, shrinking by 0.1 per cent after growing by 0.1 per cent in the previous quarter. However, on a 12-month comparison, the OECD-area economy grew by 2.1 per cent, and this showed a slight improvement from 2.0 per cent in the last quarter of last year. Among the top seven economies, Britain led the way with 12-month growth of 3.1 per cent, followed by Japan with 2.7 per cent, and with Italy being the only country to show contraction, of 0.5 per cent. |
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