| Latest Forum Topics / Medtecs Intl Last:0.121 -- |
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The next journey
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Tkong214
Member |
20-Aug-2021 15:18
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Here' s just a summary of my recent sharings before I go on hibernation mode. Please do your own homework.  This shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe for any investment product or the giving of advice thereof. Please seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person in receipt of the recommendation, before making a commitment to purchase any financial product. Whilst all care is taken in the preparation of this material, no warranty is given in respect to the information provided and accordingly no responsibility for errors or omissions.  Good luck, everyone!!! Dear all MT retail sufferers,  I can feel your pain and despair in this brutal selldown as I am also stuck with 10 lots at above $1. But this doesn' t affect me too much as I think I can stomach the loss although I still kick myself for not selling on Monday opening at $0.70. The key is not overstretching yourself in any investment, especially penny stocks. I  feel that MT has reached a near term capitulation this morning at $0.535. Even dead cat bounds after the point of max pessimism. I hope not many here were flushed out this morning. This would be a very sad ending for those who did and I can understand your situation and feel your pain. That' s not to say I believe it will be smooth sailing for the stock from now on. On the contrary, I hope the stock manipulators will continue to whack this down to the cash level of $0.20 or lower so I can double averaging down. I also do so in support of a company that has had protected the world from the ongoing pandemic and any new pandemic to come for the past 30 odd years. I hope it does not  go bankrupt will do. Take care, everyone! Just my 2 cts worth on fundamentals: On financial numbers (1H 2021) NAV: US$0.3426 or    S$0.46 Cash: US$61.1m or    S$0.15 Receivable: US$47.6m or    S$0.12 EPS (1H2021): US$0.0349 or    S$0.046 On revenue composition in 2020 Isolation gowns and coveralls and others:    50% Shoe covers, face shields, bouffant caps, non-disposable uniforms:    30% Face masks:    20% On expenses 1H 2021 Distribution & selling expenses + Admin expenses over Revenue was high compared to 1H 2020. Management said it' s due to higher promotional and marketing expenses. Okay fine. I do not think these two expenses in 2H 2021 will be as high as 2H 2020 as lower projected revenue means lower freight-out and commission expenses. Finance expenses will be negligible with the redemption of loan. One thing the management has to do is to rein in wages and salaries, which jumped by over 10m in 2020. It' s okay to pay yourself good bonus when sales and profit are good, but when results is down everyone should suffer together.    On outlook For 2H outlook, North America which is a huge market has been a bright spot in 1H and I hope the trend continues. Asia Pacific will depend much on the government stockpiling cycle. If it doesn' t come in 2H, it will come in 2022 or 2023 as eventually the stocks need to be replenished or expired. Unless MT is no longer the partner.    The main revenue contributor of isolation gowns and overalls has a very good margin. The usage is not confined to just healthcare sector electronic and semiconductor sectors can also use its range of products. I am not particularly concerned about its capex or excess capacity. Medtecs can adjust the production of masks rather flexibly. The utilisation rate prior to Covid-19 was less than 10%. It can ramp up production quickly to meet demand. At max capacity, it can now produce 2m masks daily. Production can go up to 3m pieces/day in 2022 if the US plant commissions production and if demand is there.   Alas, looking at the numbers alone, I don' t think my double average down target of $0.20 will be reached. As long as the company generates positive cash flow on operating activities, I am not that concerned at the current price level. The management can buy back a bit of shares as confidence booster. I hope it does not pay a generous dividend as some heartless people would sell immediately after the cheque is in. Cash should be conserved for M& A and other opportunities. Or leave it to boost the book value until S$1!!!   Imagine if Medtecs is appointed as a PPE stockpiling provider by the US government in addition to S' pore, Taiwan, Philippines, and Cambodia..,. Huat liao. US likes and supports Taiwanese companies. Chairman Yang has worked on the ground for the past 30 odd years, and has built up good relationships with the local governments in the Philippines and Cambodia. He' s even elected as the chairman of Chinese-Philippines Business Council and founding chairman of Confederation of Philippines Manufacturers of PPE. PM of Cambodia Hun Sen even visited Medtecs' plants in Cambodia and credited the elder Yang for developing the area, the PM' s hometown. Relationship takes decades to build. It has survived in the past 30 years. With the new pot of cash, I don' t think it cannot survive in the next 3-5 years.    For traders who cannot even look beyond today, you are always the lunch of the stock manipulators!!! If you have a huge position in this or if you borrow to buy or if you are doing day trading, you should be very concerned. The stock manipulators can depressed the prices for longer than you can remain solvent. But if your time frame is 3-5 years, I am hopeful that it will revisit $1... |
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newbieliu
Elite |
20-Aug-2021 14:45
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Hi 5 . I?m stuck too :( sadly but I do agree it is hard to part with profits and I blame myself ending up in larger loss than small profits back in 110 series before its last dividend . Hope they could diversify their biz further to regain ground .
If my bet is wrong too bad . Less cash ans another bad debt to be written off
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Tkong214
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20-Aug-2021 14:41
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Thanks for your ' opinion' . I agree that there are many many other blue chip healthcare stocks with much better prospect and greater upside potential than Medtecs, and the reason I am talking here is because my 10 lots are stuck at slightly above $1. But I do not agree with you that once a penny forever a penny, once loss-making forever hopeless. Who say company fortune cannot be turned around by a single event? Moderna and BioNtech were making big losses of hundred of million dollars a year for years until Covid-19. Of course I am not comparing Medtecs to them. Ask yourself, are you being fair to those long-suffering, mentally unstable retail investors by suggesting they should just sell at this level ($0.58) when it' s pretty close to its NAV without any ground but just your ' opinion' ? Don' t the net profit of US$131.7m earned in 2020 and the current cash and receiveable balance of US$108.7m (S$0.27 per share) count or mean anything to you?  Be careful when you dispense financial advice online without any basis. I' ve never advised people on their positions. I merely share the facts and figures and a little more insights that I have with all pitiful Medtecs investors here.
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jackjack
Veteran |
20-Aug-2021 13:50
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Give you a big like Medtecs management also have no track record of doing well. If you would say company like Top Glove, i would say you have a point considering the company has track record of earning decent profit in the past 10-20 years. Look at them how many bonus issue they have given in the past 20 years when they listed in Malaysia For Medtecs, look at their past record. The only time they earn decent profit is 2003 when SARS happen, the share price gone from few cents to 20 cents. After that, it was all the way down until where they start from in 1-2 years, and the price stick at few cents until 2020 because of covid pandemic. Count the number of years your money going to be stuck there. That shows management is also not good at tapping into new venture. I remember only saw some video somewhere, where the company do some webinar and William Yang say they going to some acquisition but cannot tell people yet, but then do a cheeky face showing his hand indicating maybe is glove related company. That scene already looks unconvincing to me Another point to note Last half year report they say second half of 2020 the revenue and profit expected to increase, that did happen. 2021 Q1 they only say revenue expected to increase in Q2, not mentioning profit. End up Q2 revenue only increase a small margin and profit drop significant q-o-q. Now in the half year report they never provide any guidance on the revenue and profit for second half. So go think by yourself what would likely to be happen Dont say i just want to play down the stock because of price going down, i have a lot of basis on why the stock is going down  
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Octega
Member |
20-Aug-2021 12:15
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I am a 3rd party reading the tit-tat arguement here. My opinion is that Medtecs is not doing well. The company share price only shoot up because of covid 19 pandemic. This pandemic is ending soon with SG opening travel restriction very very soon.  There are many better and bigger medical supplier that is suppling to US and Asia market. The recent sharp selling is indicative of BB loosing interest in this company. Better be responsible to advise those deeply gear to this counter to unload to cash out while they can. Some people arguing very strongly to hold are likely the one geared-in at the hight price before the recent crashed and hoping to get out themselve. You guys should cut lost and get out and re-invest in better safer stocks like all the banks.   |
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jackjack
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20-Aug-2021 10:23
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Ystd can blame market sentiment is bad. Today even on rebound day this is going no where. Not surprise to see it in red later | ||||
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ETLee8
Master |
20-Aug-2021 00:23
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Fully agree with Jack.  Chances are very remote perhaps 1-5%, perhaps one small state/hospital but it will take a long long time to achieve it.  
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jackjack
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19-Aug-2021 23:57
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Wow appointed as US PPE stockpilling provider? Great imagination ya. If it happens i also believe stock will fly also ya. But chances for it to happen?? Probably less than 1%. They have marketing branch in US. Want happen also happen way long ago. When this pandemic happen also another great chance to tap in the market if the management knows to take the opportunity. But it did not happen. Now hoping it to happen? I certainly wouldn't bet on something which has so low probability
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jackjack
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19-Aug-2021 23:47
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You reply on my quote and say 'you buay sian' and now you mention is not me? Okay fine then. I need to interpret you differently
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ETLee8
Master |
19-Aug-2021 23:44
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If just based on the company reports which u claimn to be facts n figures, one can predict and project the share price accurately at any one time, then everybody will be a winner, there is no loser.  Is this the first time u invested  in shares ?? Everybody can read the financial reports.  It is how u interpret and draw the right conclusions that makes a difference.    Besides, there are many other variables in play.  These variables are the determining factors that makes one a winner or loser.
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Tkong214
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19-Aug-2021 22:42
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My remarks were made based on company facts and figures and not opinion. You  can verify them with various sources. What about you? You have nothing to back your unsubstantiated claims, no facts but only your feelings and baseless ' opinions' , and ulterior motives! Goodness!!
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3jhuat
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19-Aug-2021 18:39
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In March this year Medtecs incorporated RMKH glove pte ltd, anyone know if Medtecs going into glove? Another step to be a overall PPE provider? | ||||
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ETLee8
Master |
19-Aug-2021 18:38
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This is my assessment not sacremongering.. U are being ridiculous as your assessment in my opinion is way way off.  Besides more investors will be hurt if they listen to you. Is not it high risk to keep thsi stock for 3-5 yrs at current price ????  The chance of it moving higher than current price is 10%, lower is 90%.    U hv not responded to my points at all. Anyway no point communicating if u can not take others opinions n assessments.
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Tkong214
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19-Aug-2021 18:32
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Wages and salaries went up by less than 50% or slightly over US$10m in 2020 due mainly to OT pay. Worst case if revenue goes back to pre-COVID of US$60-70m, I don' t think it will cause that big of a problem to Medtecs as those expenses will decline corresponding to revenue. With lesser orders, freight-out which is a major cost in 2020 will come down. Also no need to pay commission to 3-party. You can short it to 4 cts and I' ll privatise it for $20m. Else, Stop spreading fake news and scaremongering people here without any knowledge of the company!!! 
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Tkong214
Member |
19-Aug-2021 17:59
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Revenue composition in 2020: Isolation gowns and coveralls and others: 50% Shoe covers, face shields, bouffant caps, non-disposable uniforms: 30% Face masks: 20% The main revenue contributor of isolation gowns and overalls has a very good margin. The usage is not confined to just healthcare sector electronic and semiconductor sectors can also use its range of products. I am not particularly concerned about its capex or excess capacity. Medtecs can adjust the production of masks rather flexibly. The utilisation rate prior to Covid-19 was less than 10%. It can ramp up production quickly to meet demand. At max capacity, it can now produce 2m masks daily. Production can go up to 3m/day in 2022 if the US plant commissions production and if demand is there. 
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ETLee8
Master |
19-Aug-2021 17:59
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I beg to differ.  My 2 cts worth too. Stockpiling of PPE for US is extremely remote as US has many much more well-known PPE companies., eg 3M Medtecs thrives on this pandemic rising from 3 cts to a high of $1.98.  When the pandemic is over maybe withn the next 1-2 years, demand is going drop to pre-pandemic levels or perhaps 100% more.  Current staff may hv to be retrenched, some excess capacities may hv to shutdown. Given the nature of its business, it is extremely hiigh risk to hold its share at the current price for 3-5 years. Medtecs has not been very open to its shareholders, many a times, investors got to contact them to get information. and most of the time a very vague response too (eg, mainboard listing).  Are u going to invest in one like that ?  Many investors had heartbreaks and anxiety over the last 1.5 years.    DYODD  
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alto26
Senior |
19-Aug-2021 17:48
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I think you can't read properly .i wrote another one,did I say its you. But if you want to admit its fine.haha
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Tkong214
Member |
19-Aug-2021 17:30
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Imagine if Medtecs is appointed as a PPE stockpiling provider by the US government in addition to S' pore, Taiwan, Philippines, and Cambodia..,. Huat liao. US likes and supports Taiwanese companies. Chairman Yang has worked on the ground for the past 30 odd years, and has built up good relationships with the local governments in the Philippines and Cambodia. He' s even elected as the chairman of Chinese-Philippines Business Council and founding chairman of Confederation of Philippines Manufacturers of PPE. PM of Cambodia Hun Sen even visited Medtecs' plants in Cambodia and credited the elder Yang for developing the area, the PM' s hometown. Relationship takes decades to build. It has survived in the past 30 years. With the new pot of cash, I don' t think it cannot survive in the next 3-5 years. For traders who cannot even look beyond today, you are always the lunch of the stock manipulators!!!
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jackjack
Veteran |
19-Aug-2021 17:26
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To those who laugh at us being squeeze, busy covering short sell or whatever. I hope you guys open your mind and learn ya. Before you guys are laughing i have been saying it is just a dead cat bounce. With market sentiment is bad plus the company fundamental is no longer promising, dont expect it will go up in the near future. | ||||
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Tkong214
Member |
19-Aug-2021 17:04
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If you have a huge position in this or if you borrow to buy or if you are doing day trading, you should be very concerned. The stock manipulators can depressed the prices for longer than you can remain solvent. But if your time frame is 3-5 years, I am hopeful that it will revisit $1... 🤣
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