| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
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NOL
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earlybird14
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10-Jun-2014 15:17
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like chartered semi con, never die. just drop and drop and drop then gonna sold by temasek at the end.
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HongLimPark
Senior |
10-Jun-2014 15:05
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Got Temasek backing. Won' t die one.
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famouspinky
Supreme |
10-Jun-2014 14:53
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Bigger market share = more orders
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jun-2014 14:53
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I don't think it is so straightforward to calculate profit between 2 large companies. Anyway, it is more than just economic or profitability that I'm buying into NOL. Let's see.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
10-Jun-2014 14:13
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Maersk made 1 billion, NOL lose 295million in 2013. based on current situation, if NOL can make 400 million, Maersk can make 3 to 5 billion. Then they will build another 30 tripple E 18000 TEU container vessels to flood the market with this 3 to 5 billion profit. No room for NOL to survive
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famouspinky
Supreme |
10-Jun-2014 14:00
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Maersk also lose money in the last 3y.only profit recently.
400 mil profit when number 1 gets 1bil is not bad lol.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
10-Jun-2014 13:43
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In fact, after reading so many positive new in economic, NOL still making loss, you shall worry more. P3 are making profit with the global economic growth. What kind of economic growth  holders would like to expect to ensure NOL to make profit? Look back to the history chart, when NOL earned profit 400million in 2010 3Q, NOL only shoot to 2 dollar, that time, NOL was low debt and market was so positive the container shipping market was back. However, after that, 3 years running huge loss, were we in bad economic in past 3 years? No really. P3 are making profit now and are not willing to hike rate but looking for even deeply cost cutting programme, even though NOL finally break even (seem like very tough), can NOL shoot to 2 dollar? No really, the most, 1.2 to 1.3. The holders are betting 1.2 to 1.3 but facing the huge risk that NOL may continue making loss and trigger the selling pressure due to debt issue which will surface out soon. When NOL is making 295 million loss(exclude the gain from head quarter sales), Maersk is making 1 billion profit in 2013. If you expect NOL making 400 million profit, I believe Maersk can make 3 to  5 billion profit. Will the shipping market allow this happen? Answer is not. The shipping freight rate is flat for 2 years between 900 to 1200 as  shown in chart  http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/scfi.jsp. P3 have accepted the fact that this will be the shipping freight rate in next few years, therefore, they are looking for further cost cutting with the basis of this freight rate and work from here to explore higher profit. However, NOL holders here are looking the other way to expect something which the market leaders(P3, not me)  believe will never happen. NOL giants vessels have been delivered all as per today date. The coming financial result will be the last hope for the holders. If NOL still fail and freight rate still at this level, what will holders expect????
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jun-2014 06:55
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PUBLISHED JUNE 10, 2014
Japan revises Q1 growth to annualised 6.7% The rise is mainly due to a surge in private capital spending by 7.6% BYANTHONY ROWLEYIN TOKYOPRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE The strong growth - the fastest in more than two years - was mainly due to a surge in private capital spending which jumped by 7.6 per cent rather than the initially estimated 4.9 per cent - PHOTO: AFP THE Japanese economy grew much faster in the first quarter of this year than initially estimated, according to revised official data released yesterday, which showed that gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annualised rate of 6.7 per cent in the period rather than the 5.9 per cent previously reported. The strong growth - the fastest in more than two years - was mainly due to a surge in private capital spending which jumped by 7.6 per cent rather than the initially estimated 4.9 per cent. This, analysts said, augured well for continuing growth in the world's third-largest economy "We were able to achieve an economic growth rate that we haven't heard of recently," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told Parliament yesterday after publication of the GDP data by the Ministry of Finance News of stronger-than-expected private capital spending was of particular welcome for Mr Abe, who has staked his political fortune on reviving the economy and ridding it of deflation. While the surge in industrial output and consumer spending in the first quarter of this year was forecast in advance of the hike in the national sales tax from April 1, economists had not expected capital investment to rise correspondingly, given fears of a sales slump after the tax hike. "Companies don't tend to ramp up spending ahead of the sales tax hike, so the increase likely reflects improvements in corporate profits and diminishing slack" in the economy, Mitsumaru Kumagai, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research, told Reuters. Separate data published yesterday showed that consumer confidence rose for the first time in six months in May, suggesting that a generally expected post tax-hike fall-off in personal consumption and industrial output may prove less severe than feared. Service sector sentiment also edged up. Meanwhile, bank lending rose 2.3 per cent in May from a year earlier, rising for the 31st consecutive month and growing at a faster pace than 2.1 per cent in April, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed yesterday. The latest statistics on the economy suggest that the inevitable fall-off in output and sales that will follow the consumption tax rise may not prove as serious as feared, analysts said. The quasi-government Japan Center for Economic Research said last week that GDP is estimated to contract 4.2 per cent in the second quarter, on the basis of projections by some 40 private-sector economists. In comments to Parliament reported by Reuters yesterday, BOJ deputy governor Kikuo Iwata said that he expected exports to turn up as advanced nations recover. "The Japanese economy will continue growth above its potential rate as a trend as exports turn up and domestic demand remains firm," Mr Iwata said, adding that the economy was on track to meet the BOJ's 2 per cent annual inflation target. On the negative side, Japan suffered its biggest trade deficit ever in April as imports of fuel and electronics parts outpaced shipments of cars, leading to a smaller-than-expected current account surplus, the Ministry of Finance reported. The trade deficit stood at 780.4 billion yen (S$9.53 billion) in April, up 10.2 per cent from a year earlier. The current account came to a surplus of 187.4 billion yen, undershooting a median forecast for 322.5 billion yen as trade shortfalls widened and income gains narrowed. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jun-2014 00:20
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Not to forget that India is experiencing euphoria now with the new PM Modi on board while Indonesia is enjoying robust export growth and Philippine is also witnessing strong recovery. Even Spore is terminal is seeing strong growth in cargo traffic at PSA terminal. I may be overly optimistic but I believe they are facts which can be read on mass media.
NOL is really hopeless if they can't turn around soon after 3 years of aggressive cost cutting and reorganization plus the setup of G6. Anyway, if they can't make it on their own, then they will be better off letting others take over them and do the job.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jun-2014 00:15
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We see US economy continue to stay stronger with sign of going stronger promoting FED to review QE program and possibly raising interest rate next year while Europe is seeing sign of recovery albeit fragile that promoted them to lower interest rates further and considering similar to QE type of Programme. Japan is stabilizing and emerging from decade old recession and deflation. China is struggling to find its footing while hovering around 7.4% - 7.6% growth rate. While the govt is acting tough to say that's good enough, that's obviously not true an hence there are early signs that they are taking measures to revive the growth engine. If they succeed without stroking inflation, we will have all pistons of the global engine firing in concert !
PUBLISHED JUNE 09, 2014 China c.bank cuts banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE China's central bank said it will cut the level of deposits that banks have to keep with it by 50 basis points for some lenders, a move aimed at freeing up more cash for loans to bolster flagging economic growth - PHOTO: REUTERS [BEIJING] China's central bank said it will cut the level of deposits that banks have to keep with it by 50 basis points for some lenders, a move aimed at freeing up more cash for loans to bolster flagging economic growth. The People's Bank of China said in a statement on its website that the reduction would be effective from June 16, and will apply to banks whose new loans to the farm sector last year exceeded 50 per cent of total new lending for 2014. It is also a requirement that outstanding loans to the farming sector exceeds 30 per cent of total outstanding loans. The central bank said in a short statement that current liquidity in China's banking system was ample, and that the direction of the country's monetary policy had not changed. Banks' reserve requirements are neither uniform or transparent in China. Smaller banks tend to have lower RRRs than major banks, which had an RRR of 20 per cent in 2012. - Reuters |
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Lucky03
Elite |
09-Jun-2014 22:56
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Pardon my grammar :)
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Lucky03
Elite |
09-Jun-2014 22:52
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I bought into IPCO at ave price of 0.9c but cut loss recently at 0.8c when it did not seem to go anywhere. As it shot up today, I reflected why I bought into IPCO in the first place. Was it be doing much better suddenly or had it turned around ? No. I was buying into IPCO purely because my view then was that it has gone significantly below 'fair value' and the potential for upside can be highly rewarding. Of course its price movement has much to do with the meteoric 45% rise of Blumont price today. Well, I failed to stick to my original plan.
I stuck to my plan when I bought and held Hankore for almost a year when it shot up from 3c+ to 7c+ when I let go. It was 'fair value' by then as far as I'm concerned. Of course, it continued to surge to high of 15c ! Well, I'm buying into NOL for same argument. Is NOL suddenly turning around ? I doubt and earlybird14 assessment that NOL and G6 may never be able to catch up with P3. The point is that is has gone significantly below 'fair value' and the potential for upside can be very rewarding vis a vis its downside risk when the time is right. I started buying into NOL around Aug last year. 3 more mths to hit my 1 year anniversary ? :) The point here is that share price is not always a reflection of the performance of a company. It is the perceived future value of the underlying potential. It is a balance of upside potential vs downside risk. When the balance is tilted to the favour of the underlying potential, it is good to buy in. No guaranteed of holding period or unforeseen development that may drag it much lower but it should have low risk of going totally belly up. Anyway, this will always be my personal opinion and my personal risk appetite. Everyone should have your own build up over time and experience. |
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famouspinky
Supreme |
09-Jun-2014 19:16
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Sti as a whole/sg economy is under perform.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
09-Jun-2014 16:22
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Yes, this is the purpose that i post here. I am not shorting or buying NOL, just contribute my previous research on NOL to whoever need it. Anyway, all the best to whoever vested, I can understand how hard to accept the fact that the invested stock go under water.
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hem2998
Veteran |
09-Jun-2014 15:25
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negative and positive views help us make a proper decision. appreciate both your views.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
09-Jun-2014 15:10
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sng123 is knowledgeable. I just posted negative view which holders are not  willing to know and. But it is to let new comers to think twice if they want to move in.
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heisuke
Member |
09-Jun-2014 14:58
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+1% now. trying inch up? |
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hem2998
Veteran |
09-Jun-2014 14:51
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hi earlybird, you sound very knowledgeable and dn wish to dispute how badly run NOL is. my only hope for NOL is M& A since its a Temasek company. -- nothing else.  
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earlybird14
Supreme |
09-Jun-2014 14:42
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Holders can hope whatever they wants. However, fact is NOL is positioned very bad in the industry. They can only adopt the plan which P3 had been adopted few years ago like order giant vessels. However, the further cost cutting plan implemented by P3 is not NOL can follow. NYK(2.7%), Hapag-Lloyd(4.2%) and OOCL(2.8%) (from the TGA) and APL(3.2%), HMM(2.1%) and MOL (3.1%) so called G6 only owned 18.1% market share. All are lossing money and always only chase behind P3, no matter on rate hiking or new strategy implementation.
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Lucky03
Elite |
09-Jun-2014 10:30
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Maybe the only option for NOL is to do an M&A then.
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