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Latest Forum Topics / Oxley    Last:0.08 --  Post Reply
Is Oxley a good buy at current price?
NT1825
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28-Jul-2020 23:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The correct and documented book value is 0.33x. 
Refer to SGX if needed.
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orchardplaza.p8
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28-Jul-2020 15:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Personal view on Oxley is their book value is probably sitting in the range of 0.17-0.19 cents and fair value is 15-20% below book. Thread carefully guys, I do not have a position - I hope everyone does well! 

orchardplaza.p8      ( Date: 25-Jun-2020 07:41) Posted:

Oxley is a SELL 
Having seen Oxley build a global real estate empire over the past 5 years and flying the Singapore flag high in Ireland, Malaysia, UK, I have always been an admirer to the stock. The growth pace has been phenomenal, and the Company has benefitted from the low interest rate environment and resultantly took on excessive leverage to fuel their global expansion. Because of this high gearing, I disagree with many of you that the stock is undervalued.

Vulnerability of Book Value
The Company has accumulated a portfolio of income producing assets over the years including Novotel and Mercure at Stevens Road which currently sit on their books at $1.1B. If you recall, these hotels were previously reported to have found a potential buyer at $1B who later decided to walk, presumably because of a mismatch in price expectations. The hotels were subsequently put on the market in March 2019 but again failed to find a buyer.
Benchmarking to the valuation of Orchard Hotel owned by CDL Hospitality REIT and Orchard Rendezvous Hotel owned by Far East Hospitality both of which are located in much superior locations, Novotel and Mercure at Stevens Road appear to be overvalued even after adjusting for its freehold status. I expect significant mark down of valuation in the next financial report.
Space at Tampines which is a retail/industrial building near IKEA would most likely be adversely impacted by Covid-19 and possibly facing valuation mark-down as well.

Funding from Non-Local Banks
It is widely advertised that Oxley has one of the highest gearing against its industry peers and is seemingly going through a normalization phase to lower its gearing, or is it? It is interesting to study the key banking relationships of Oxley which is dominated by foreign banks including the likes of Deutsche Bank and HSBC. These banks typically charge a much higher interest rate than local banks and have stricter financial covenants. I would project that if the Company takes a loan of 60% LTV on their Steven Road assets from a bank like HSBC, the interest rate will most likely be 4% or translating to almost $24m of interest every year. This is a hefty sum and interest coverage covenant will most likely be challenged when government related business due to Covid taper off in Q3/Q4. Most importantly, if valuation gets marked down by 15% from $1.1B to $935m, could there be a requirement to top up $100m of equity?

Conundrum of Sales Velocity vs. Rising Construction Cost  
I acknowledge that the sales velocity of Oxley projects is at a reasonable pace and they have sold most of units in their inventory but is this positive or negative? Developers in Singapore have thin development margin and to move units in this climate, one must reduce price. With the recent labour restrictions, Minister Lawrence Wong has said that it is inevitable that the construction industry copes with rising cost. My personal view is a 10% reduction in sale price coupled with a 10% increase in cost including delay costs would most likely wipe out all your profits, well you are essentially working to pay off the banks. It is also noteworthy that Oxley has a few projects of smaller scale and the incremental cost can be significant as a percentage of cost.
Wrapping Up
The above is my opinion and quite often I am wrong. Compare Oxley to similar stocks like Tuan Sing, Tuan Sing has similar leverage profile but much superior assets on their books and well positioned for recovery. If you would like residential exposure, I would opt for developers with large scale projects like UOL, UIC, CDL...  these developers can out muscle contractors and quite often build better projects at lower cost.
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stanip
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28-Jul-2020 13:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		22cents, back to 2012 pricing. Picked up some to lock up for recovery. Hope for a repeat like 2012... jumped to 60cents from the low. :)
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Joelton
Supreme
28-Jul-2020 11:37     
 
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 Alert Admin
GL Limited, Oxley expect FY2020 net losses
LEISURE group GL Limited on Monday said it is expected to report a net loss for FY2020, primarily due to Covid-19 as well as lower oil prices.
 
It said that the pandemic has resulted in widespread international travel restrictions and severely disrupted the group&rsquo s United Kingdom hospitality business led by its wholly-owned subsidiary, GLH Hotels Limited. 
 
It is also expecting potential impairment losses attributable to the group&rsquo s hotel assets and development property, as well as lower income from its Bass Strait oil-and-gas royalty interest compared to a year ago, driven by significantly weaker crude oil prices due to oversupply and exacerbated by the impact of Covid-19 on global demand.
 
" Notwithstanding the above, the group&rsquo s financial position remains robust and it has adequate liquidity to see it through this challenging period, with total cash and undrawn credit facilities standing at circa US$235 million as of June 30, 2020," it said.
 
It is expected to release its FY20 results by Aug 26.
 
Property company Oxley Holdings on Monday also said that it is expected to report a net loss for the second half of its FY2020 and the full year, due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
 
This was based on a preliminary assessment of its management accounts. It will announce its results by Aug 29.
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Mayalow63
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28-Jul-2020 00:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Losses likely due to (1) operational losses for the hotels - tourist numbers less than 1,000 compared to average of 1.5+ million a month, (2) possible loss on disposal of Chevron House because transacted price for retail is lower than book value, (3) fair value impairment for investment properties - NPI doesn't support valuation etc, and (4) possible writedown for KLCC and Cambodia projects (?). Developers and landlords have the short end of the stick with limited government support. Saving grace is lower interest costs. SOR has dropped significantly and is likely to stay depressed. Don't think we are going to get the special bonanza dividend because of cash requirements and bank covenants.

Keepfaith2018      ( Date: 27-Jul-2020 19:59) Posted:

Can still pay out dividend as they still have accumulated retained earnings...

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look@bright
Elite
27-Jul-2020 20:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hopefully! no eye to see the share price already....
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Keepfaith2018
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27-Jul-2020 19:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Can still pay out dividend as they still have accumulated retained earnings...
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wiltay
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27-Jul-2020 19:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		i better ask uncle roger..  cheeky

look@bright      ( Date: 27-Jul-2020 19:45) Posted:

every counter can

wiltay      ( Date: 27-Jul-2020 18:46) Posted:

can this counter invest by using CPF?
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look@bright
Elite
27-Jul-2020 19:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		every counter can

wiltay      ( Date: 27-Jul-2020 18:46) Posted:

can this counter invest by using CPF?
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wiltay
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27-Jul-2020 18:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		can this counter invest by using CPF?
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Goldfinger
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27-Jul-2020 18:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		In this type of environment where there is lockdown and economic losses to save the lives of the vulnerably weak and old, we should count ourselves fortunate they do not collapse or run away.  LOLz.
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stanip
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27-Jul-2020 18:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Other property counters' profit guidance?  Wonder if Oxley is better or worse than others...
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7ocean
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27-Jul-2020 18:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No More exceed to sell.. profits guidance

look@bright      ( Date: 27-Jul-2020 18:19) Posted:

crying
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look@bright
Elite
27-Jul-2020 18:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		crying
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alsim55
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27-Jul-2020 18:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		doesnt seem like there will be a 10year special one off dividend .....

Based on a preliminary assessment of the management accounts for the second half and full year 
ended 30 June 2020 (&ldquo 2H2020&rdquo and &ldquo FY2020&rdquo , respectively), the Board of Directors of Oxley Holdings 
Limited (the &ldquo Company&rdquo , and together with its subsidiaries, the &ldquo Group&rdquo ) would like to advise 
shareholders that the Group is expected to report a net loss for 2H2020 and FY2020, significantly due 
to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.   
Further details will be disclosed when the Group finalises and announces its 2H2020 and FY2020 
financial statements on or before 29 August 2020. 
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stanip
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20-Jul-2020 16:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks. They picked a Saturday to annouce their yearly result... Have checked their corp announcement.

pc1234      ( Date: 20-Jul-2020 16:37) Posted:

The Final Year report will be out on 29 Aug 2020. 

Oxley has creased to do the quarterly reporting. Please see its announcement in SGX on 10 Mar 2020.

stanip      ( Date: 18-Jul-2020 18:28) Posted:

Anyone knows when Oxley will announce their latest quarterly financial results? I googled and went to their web site and could only find their Q2 (Dec 2019) quarterly numbers. Have they annouced Q3 (i.e end March one)?

 


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pc1234
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20-Jul-2020 16:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The Final Year report will be out on 29 Aug 2020. 

Oxley has creased to do the quarterly reporting. Please see its announcement in SGX on 10 Mar 2020.

stanip      ( Date: 18-Jul-2020 18:28) Posted:

Anyone knows when Oxley will announce their latest quarterly financial results? I googled and went to their web site and could only find their Q2 (Dec 2019) quarterly numbers. Have they annouced Q3 (i.e end March one)?

 

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stanip
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20-Jul-2020 16:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		RHB issued a target price of $0.29 for Oxley just few days back...
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Goldfinger
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19-Jul-2020 22:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Lets hope for a special 10th Anniversary dividend surprise???

look@bright      ( Date: 19-Jul-2020 21:15) Posted:

It should be in August.

stanip      ( Date: 18-Jul-2020 18:28) Posted:

Anyone knows when Oxley will announce their latest quarterly financial results? I googled and went to their web site and could only find their Q2 (Dec 2019) quarterly numbers. Have they annouced Q3 (i.e end March one)?

 


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look@bright
Elite
19-Jul-2020 21:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		It should be in August.

stanip      ( Date: 18-Jul-2020 18:28) Posted:

Anyone knows when Oxley will announce their latest quarterly financial results? I googled and went to their web site and could only find their Q2 (Dec 2019) quarterly numbers. Have they annouced Q3 (i.e end March one)?

 

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