Back

Latest Forum Topics / Alita Resources    Last:0.078 --

Post Reply

alliance mineral resources move up Post Reply Rate topic
timothylim890 Veteran	03-Apr-2017 15:07        timothylim890 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think this is a good overall framework for those attempting to do a valuation estimate. Thanks! furnaces      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 15:03) Posted: Production -                  Spodumene Concentrate = 120,000 to 160,000 tonnes per annum (average 140,000) -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = 300,000 pounds per annum Before processing, these ores are worth -                  Spodumene Concentrate = US$900 per ton -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = US$60 per pound Total worth per annum (before accounting for operating costs) -                  Spodumene Concentrate = US$900 per ton x 140,000 = US$126,000,000 -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = US$60 per pound x 300,000 = US$18,000,000 Total worth per annum (after accounting for operating costs) -                  Spodumene Concentrate = (US$900 &ndash US$250 per ton) x 140,000 = US$91,000,000 -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = (US$60 &ndash US$30 per pound) x 300,000 = US$9,000,000 The infrastructure is mostly in place or funded by Tawana Resources, so Alliance shouldn&rsquo t incur too much of a cost here. Total operating profit per year about US$100,000,000 or S$140,000,000 Alliance Mineral 50% share in Joint Venture = $70,000,000 Additional expenses for Alliance Mineral assuming $5,000,000 (tax, administrative etc) Net Profit = $65,000,000 Assuming a 8x P/E ratio, same as Galaxy Resources = Market cap to be about $520,000,000 Target Price = $520,000,000 / 480,000,000 shares = $1.08 per share.   Well, above is an ideal scenario. Execution risks poses a serious threat as well as offtake agreements. An also, if the disclosed data  are not what they actually are.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
MooMoo Senior	03-Apr-2017 15:05        MooMoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The chart' s looking very good.  My broker commented that it is now a real upward push since the retail uncles & aunties are out of the picture.  choong      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:51) Posted: Let' s see whether it will push to close above 37 at closing.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
furnaces Veteran	03-Apr-2017 15:03        furnaces About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Production -                  Spodumene Concentrate = 120,000 to 160,000 tonnes per annum (average 140,000) -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = 300,000 pounds per annum Before processing, these ores are worth -                  Spodumene Concentrate = US$900 per ton -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = US$60 per pound Total worth per annum (before accounting for operating costs) -                  Spodumene Concentrate = US$900 per ton x 140,000 = US$126,000,000 -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = US$60 per pound x 300,000 = US$18,000,000 Total worth per annum (after accounting for operating costs) -                  Spodumene Concentrate = (US$900 &ndash US$250 per ton) x 140,000 = US$91,000,000 -                  Tantalum Pentoxide = (US$60 &ndash US$30 per pound) x 300,000 = US$9,000,000 The infrastructure is mostly in place or funded by Tawana Resources, so Alliance shouldn&rsquo t incur too much of a cost here. Total operating profit per year about US$100,000,000 or S$140,000,000 Alliance Mineral 50% share in Joint Venture = $70,000,000 Additional expenses for Alliance Mineral assuming $5,000,000 (tax, administrative etc) Net Profit = $65,000,000 Assuming a 8x P/E ratio, same as Galaxy Resources = Market cap to be about $520,000,000 Target Price = $520,000,000 / 480,000,000 shares = $1.08 per share.   Well, above is an ideal scenario. Execution risks poses a serious threat as well as offtake agreements. An also, if the disclosed data  are not what they actually are.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
risktaker Supreme	03-Apr-2017 15:03        risktaker About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	difficult to trade in aussie market.. currency up down and cant see live feed tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 15:01) Posted: better to buy TAW in australia market?? better return than Alliance, at least no such thing as curb/restriction in Aussie market?   pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:34) Posted: Agreed. TAW are taking all the risks now by pumping in real cash $20m for the metallugical works. Alliance being the asset owner doesn' t have to assume any risk. Actually I think all these are just wayang. They already know that this mine is commercial grade and have lots of potential. TAW is not a stupid company. I believe they have already done their homework and that' s why they sanctioned the $20m investment. I believe they already have all the good results in hand and are just releasing it slowly to the market to move the stock price in a systematic manner. This is a real deal and they know it.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
tankookoo Master	03-Apr-2017 15:01        tankookoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	better to buy TAW in australia market?? better return than Alliance, at least no such thing as curb/restriction in Aussie market?   pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:34) Posted: Agreed. TAW are taking all the risks now by pumping in real cash $20m for the metallugical works. Alliance being the asset owner doesn' t have to assume any risk. Actually I think all these are just wayang. They already know that this mine is commercial grade and have lots of potential. TAW is not a stupid company. I believe they have already done their homework and that' s why they sanctioned the $20m investment. I believe they already have all the good results in hand and are just releasing it slowly to the market to move the stock price in a systematic manner. This is a real deal and they know it. risktaker      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:14) Posted: Actually... many people are wondering why TAW is trading at AUD 23.5 where alliance trading at 36c... Alliance is having a huge premium to TAW... That could be a reason why people think alliance over run.... but its not.... TAW is paying all the bills thats why .... but once things started to move in the right direction... i believe the price premium of over 10c gap will be gone...
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
choong Senior	03-Apr-2017 14:51        choong About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let' s see whether it will push to close above 37 at closing.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
risktaker Supreme	03-Apr-2017 14:47        risktaker About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	120,000 to 160,000 spodumene target 120k x 900 USD = 108 million USD Convert to SGD (USD exchange rate= 1.35) = 145.8M SGD 145.8 / 2 = 72.9 M ( Excluding all other resources revenue+profit) This is a highly profitable operations = so we lets at min of 20% margin  14.5M per year excluding tantalum resources profit. 480M share/ 14.5M = 3c EPS Alliance Mineral: P/E = 36/3 = 12 times PE thats excluding all other resources
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Atom99 Master	03-Apr-2017 14:42        Atom99 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "Once you hv eliminated the impossible,whatever remains TRUTH"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	One step at a time. Wait for the off-taker agreement signed with buyer and prepayment and financing detail are announced in April/May I am sure we would hv a much better picture and surely it would be under coverage by reasearch houses. tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:16) Posted: think it should not be calculate this way...dun know how the Alliance should be valued.. tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:11) Posted: The $1b sales for 15 years, meaning yearly sale is around $100,000,000 ($100 million). So for Alliance, assuming 50% JV, annual sale will be $50 million. Not sure what is will be cost, but assuming it make 10% profit which is around 5 million, what should be the share price?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
pool100 Veteran	03-Apr-2017 14:34        pool100 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed. TAW are taking all the risks now by pumping in real cash $20m for the metallugical works. Alliance being the asset owner doesn' t have to assume any risk. Actually I think all these are just wayang. They already know that this mine is commercial grade and have lots of potential. TAW is not a stupid company. I believe they have already done their homework and that' s why they sanctioned the $20m investment. I believe they already have all the good results in hand and are just releasing it slowly to the market to move the stock price in a systematic manner. This is a real deal and they know it. risktaker      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:14) Posted: Actually... many people are wondering why TAW is trading at AUD 23.5 where alliance trading at 36c... Alliance is having a huge premium to TAW... That could be a reason why people think alliance over run.... but its not.... TAW is paying all the bills thats why .... but once things started to move in the right direction... i believe the price premium of over 10c gap will be gone...
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
tankookoo Master	03-Apr-2017 14:16        tankookoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	think it should not be calculate this way...dun know how the Alliance should be valued.. tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:11) Posted: The $1b sales for 15 years, meaning yearly sale is around $100,000,000 ($100 million). So for Alliance, assuming 50% JV, annual sale will be $50 million. Not sure what is will be cost, but assuming it make 10% profit which is around 5 million, what should be the share price?   pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:06) Posted: Your estimate is more conservative than mine but it' s in line with my calculations. We would easily be looking at more than $1bn in sales alone.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
timothylim890 Veteran	03-Apr-2017 14:15        timothylim890 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Assuming $30m in revenue for AMAL ($60m in my previous calculation divided by 2) and a 10% net profit margin, that' s $6m => EPS $0.062. At current price that' s P/E of 5.8x. Seems cheap to me. tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:11) Posted: The $1b sales for 15 years, meaning yearly sale is around $100,000,000 ($100 million). So for Alliance, assuming 50% JV, annual sale will be $50 million. Not sure what is will be cost, but assuming it make 10% profit which is around 5 million, what should be the share price?   pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:06) Posted: Your estimate is more conservative than mine but it' s in line with my calculations. We would easily be looking at more than $1bn in sales alone.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
risktaker Supreme	03-Apr-2017 14:14        risktaker About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Actually... many people are wondering why TAW is trading at AUD 23.5 where alliance trading at 36c... Alliance is having a huge premium to TAW... That could be a reason why people think alliance over run.... but its not.... TAW is paying all the bills thats why .... but once things started to move in the right direction... i believe the price premium of over 10c gap will be gone...
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
timothylim890 Veteran	03-Apr-2017 14:13        timothylim890 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	At $60m a year, that equates to $0.125 earnings per share (based on 480.76M shares outstanding)...at current price that' s a P/E of 2.9x. Of course, actual earnings should be lower after accounting for corporate tax, etc. (I' m not sure what exactly goes into the production cost per tonne) timothylim890      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:11) Posted: Assuming $200/tonne in production costs and 120,000 tonnes of spodumene per million tonnes of ore, we could be looking at 120,000 x 20 x (900-200) = $1.68b in spodumene sales. If spodumene price falls to $700/tonne as I had seen in one estimate, that' s still $1.2b on the conservative side, or about $60m/yr assuming they mine at a rate of 1MT/yr. pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:06) Posted: Your estimate is more conservative than mine but it' s in line with my calculations. We would easily be looking at more than $1bn in sales alone.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
tankookoo Master	03-Apr-2017 14:11        tankookoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The $1b sales for 15 years, meaning yearly sale is around $100,000,000 ($100 million). So for Alliance, assuming 50% JV, annual sale will be $50 million. Not sure what is will be cost, but assuming it make 10% profit which is around 5 million, what should be the share price?   pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:06) Posted: Your estimate is more conservative than mine but it' s in line with my calculations. We would easily be looking at more than $1bn in sales alone. risktaker      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 13:02) Posted: I think 20MT can support 15 years of mining life... given 1MT they manage to get 120K lithium x current price 900 x 15 years... u calculate lor 120k x 900 x15= USD 1.3bllion US
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
timothylim890 Veteran	03-Apr-2017 14:11        timothylim890 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Assuming $200/tonne in production costs and 120,000 tonnes of spodumene per million tonnes of ore, we could be looking at 120,000 x 20 x (900-200) = $1.68b in spodumene sales. If spodumene price falls to $700/tonne as I had seen in one estimate, that' s still $1.2b on the conservative side, or about $60m/yr assuming they mine at a rate of 1MT/yr. pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 14:06) Posted: Your estimate is more conservative than mine but it' s in line with my calculations. We would easily be looking at more than $1bn in sales alone. risktaker      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 13:02) Posted: I think 20MT can support 15 years of mining life... given 1MT they manage to get 120K lithium x current price 900 x 15 years... u calculate lor 120k x 900 x15= USD 1.3bllion US
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
pool100 Veteran	03-Apr-2017 14:06        pool100 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Your estimate is more conservative than mine but it' s in line with my calculations. We would easily be looking at more than $1bn in sales alone. risktaker      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 13:02) Posted: I think 20MT can support 15 years of mining life... given 1MT they manage to get 120K lithium x current price 900 x 15 years... u calculate lor 120k x 900 x15= USD 1.3bllion USD tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 12:50) Posted: How much profit could both company made based on the resource target? Divided by half for each company, roughly how much would alliance be worth?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
timothylim890 Veteran	03-Apr-2017 13:51        timothylim890 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Unless the metallurgical studies conducted by contract consultant Noel O' Brien are fake, I' d say it' s real. From Tawana and AMAL' s joint statement released on 16 Mar: " Competent Persons Statement The information in this news release that relates to Exploration Results is based on and fairly represents information and supporting documentation compiled by Mr Mark Calderwood, an employee of the Company. Mr Calderwood is a member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Mr Calderwood has sufficient experience relevant to the style of mineralisation under consideration and to the activity which they are undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 edition of the &ldquo Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves&rdquo , the standard used for this report. Mr Calderwood consents to the inclusion in this report of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears. Mr Calderwood meets the requirements to act as a Qualified Person (as defined in the SGX Catalist rules). Metallurgy The information in this release that relates to metallurgy and metallurgical test work has been reviewed by Mr Noel O&rsquo Brien, FAusIMM, MBA, B. Met Eng. Mr O&rsquo Brien is not an employee of Tawana, but is employed as a contract consultant. Mr O&rsquo Brien is a Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, and he has sufficient experience with the style of processing response and type of deposit under consideration, and to the activities undertaken, to qualify as a competent person as defined in the 2012 edition of the &ldquo Australian Code for the Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves&rdquo (The JORC Code). Mr O&rsquo Brien consents to the inclusion in this report of the contained technical information in the form and context as it appears. Mr O&rsquo Brien meets the requirements to act as a Qualified Person (as defined in the SGX Catalist rules).   " sheerluck      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 13:34) Posted: This coy is super lucky?   Digging tantalum for years never find lithium then when tantalum price drop, suddenly lithium appears?   Real or not? risktaker      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 13:02) Posted: I think 20MT can support 15 years of mining life... given 1MT they manage to get 120K lithium x current price 900 x 15 years... u calculate lor 120k x 900 x15= USD 1.3bllion US
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sheerluck Supreme	03-Apr-2017 13:34        sheerluck About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Work for your money first then let your money work for you"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This coy is super lucky?   Digging tantalum for years never find lithium then when tantalum price drop, suddenly lithium appears?   Real or not? risktaker      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 13:02) Posted: I think 20MT can support 15 years of mining life... given 1MT they manage to get 120K lithium x current price 900 x 15 years... u calculate lor 120k x 900 x15= USD 1.3bllion USD tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 12:50) Posted: How much profit could both company made based on the resource target? Divided by half for each company, roughly how much would alliance be worth?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
risktaker Supreme	03-Apr-2017 13:02        risktaker About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Posts are opinions. Do not take it as investment advise "
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think 20MT can support 15 years of mining life... given 1MT they manage to get 120K lithium x current price 900 x 15 years... u calculate lor 120k x 900 x15= USD 1.3bllion USD tankookoo      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 12:50) Posted: How much profit could both company made based on the resource target? Divided by half for each company, roughly how much would alliance be worth?   Atom99      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 12:39) Posted: Look at the resource target on page. July : 20MT - 30MT Dec: 30 MT - 50MT It is huge. Same as Galaxy Resources
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
tankookoo Master	03-Apr-2017 12:50        tankookoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	How much profit could both company made based on the resource target? Divided by half for each company, roughly how much would alliance be worth?   Atom99      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 12:39) Posted: Look at the resource target on page. July : 20MT - 30MT Dec: 30 MT - 50MT It is huge. Same as Galaxy Resources pool100      ( Date: 03-Apr-2017 12:29) Posted: Superb presentation. Looks like this is a read deal. My friend who is in the mining industry in perth says that Tawana is a real mining company. Not fly by night. They really have cash and know what they' re doing. Congrats to all who kept faith in alliance!
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   < Newer   7541-7560 of 10377   Older>   Last