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NOL
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Jul-2014 09:02
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41.05? it is mission impossible. If NOL can be 41.05, Maersk and MSC major shareholders will take over Bill Gate and Warren Buffet to be the world richest. NOL is looking even deeper price. Let' s wait and see if NOL can breakeven in coming quarter and shut my mouth. Just bear in mind, even NOL can break even, its share price won' t cross 1.1.
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earlybird14
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11-Jul-2014 08:59
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Warren don' t buy 3 years loss making company, cheers. Your track record on Ezra, Olam, Noble and etc have consistent point which is they are profitable, may be making loss in 1 or 2 quarter but annum result is profitable. NOL is not.
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spore1
Supreme |
11-Jul-2014 08:52
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before u realise Nol may be trending up to 97 cents, $1.00 then 41.05. mkt dont wait for u . nobody knows when it will hit the bottom. NAV 94 cents that is a very good prices..
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Jul-2014 08:22
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Note in this article published on Turkey SeaNews http://www.seanews.com.tr/article/worldship/131161/Freight-rates-summer-rally-alphaliner/ . APL has returned chartered ship priced at much higher rate in line with their plan and to use own ships newly delivered.
Freight rates enjoy summer rally: Alphaliner THE container charter market rates for both large and small vessels are enjoying a summer peak season rebound, whilst rates for medium-sized tonnage remain stagnant in light of stalling demand. Charter rates for overpanamax tonnage rose on the back of limited vessel supply and firm demand, reported Alphaliner. Denmark's Maersk Line fixed the 8,540 TEU Seroja Empat, sublet from MISC Bhd, for four to six months at US$26,500, an increase on the $25,500 paid in May by UASC on the same ship for a Pacific round voyage. MSC has secured the 6,966 TEU Schulte-controlled Adrian Schulte for 12 months at $20,500. The vessel recently ended a five-year charter with APL at a much higher rate of $37,250. Hamburg Sud has sublet the 6,612 TEU Zodiac-controlled Cap Aguilar to Maersk for three to five months at $16,500, a loss making deal for the German company which originally fixed the vessel in November 2013 for a 12-month charter at $22,000. The 4,000-5,000 TEU wide-beam sector continues to generate interest with Maersk extending the 5,071 TEU Thenamaris-controlled Seasmile for 12 months at $16,650, less than the $18,100 Maersk was so far paying. NYK fixed the 4,620 TEU Hamburger Lloyd-controlled RHL Calliditas for nine to 12 months at $15,500, slightly above what the Japanese operator paid for a sister vessel for a similar period in early June. The panamax market continues its rally with rates finally reaching $10,000, as illustrated by the fixture of the 5,050-TEU Margrit Rickmers for an Asia-US east coast round voyage. MSC fixed the sister vessel Pinehurst Kontor for six to nine months at $9,900 and OOCL secured in Asia the 5,041-TEU Patjens-controlled Herma P for seven to nine months at $9,700. This rate is a huge blow for Patjens, who enjoyed a rate of $28,000 from an eight-year charter with P&O Nedlloyd that recently expired. The 3,000-3,500 TEU market is at last seeing some progress with rates hitting the high $7,000s, up from recent fixtures of low to mid $7,000. The higher rates for larger panamax ships have also forced charterers to consider smaller tonnage. CMA CGM has extended the 3,586 TEU HS Bizet for seven to 10 months at $7,750. The vessel is deployed by CMA CGM's affiliate ANL on the North America-ANZ 'Oceania' service operated jointly with Hapag-Lloyd and Hamburg Sud. In Asia, MOL fixed the 3,380-TEU William Shakespeare for two months at the same rate. The vessel is to join the new Asia-west Africa service that MOL recently launched with Evergreen and COSCO. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Jul-2014 08:05
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NOL is a global shipping company. Their fate is not not how well they manage but also how the industry and global landscape is developing. There are 5 keys factors fot considerations -
1. NOL cost cutting, operation efficiency and financial management. Maersk didn't overnight turn profitable but took a couple of years to carry out those cost cutting and operation efficiency measures. NOL started 3 yrs ago and finally completed the fleet renewal this year with the last 10 ships out of 34 ordered already received this year. Many other liners are doing catch up now. 2. The overall supply and demand. It is a fact that overall supply overhang will be around for a while. 3. Demand is directly proportionate to containers volumes being handled which in turn is dependent on global trades which is in turn dependent on global economy. As we can see, US continues to grow strongly, Japan is pumping stimulus and seeing some encouraging results, China and India are emerging from their low (still growing though) and expected to improve. 4. The freight rate will continue to stay low as factor 2 continues to exceed the effect of factor 3. The big question is whether the supply is not getting any worst and if the global demand will continue to get better. Many ports are reporting higher containers being handled and re aggressively expanding. Some are already reporting hitting pre-crisis level. 5. Competition in the industry. It is no doubt scale is king and they have proven to be able to be profitable despite the very low freight rate. One of the key consideration is to minimize returning ships with no cargos. That's why the alliance is very important. M&A is picking up steam and NOL will have to play the same game. Hapag's expression of interest is a serious message and it will unlikely be taken lightly. May prompt Tamesek to act earlier than later. Well, it is anyone's call but we should not just brush NOL off and hopeless. I do see that they have executed all the right moves including reorganization from a geographical control one to a functional one to allow a more responsive and effective decision making process to capture market and to adapt to competition and to drive synergy. In the last AGM recording that I played from their site, the CFO highlighted that they are operationally cash positive, ie not burning cash. Their obligation for payment of the ships will taper off this year and hence CAPEX is expected to be lower in FY14. We shall have clearer picture with the release of Q2 result in about 3 weeks.
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counter
Veteran |
11-Jul-2014 07:39
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Bro earlybird14, If you read the quotes of Warren Buffet, you will find that he has a somewhat similar investment philosophy. The difference is that he is consistent with this philosophy. |
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counter
Veteran |
11-Jul-2014 07:29
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Bro earlybird14, Does the following post look familiar to you? " nobody can accurately predict the bottom. If the price right, just enter. drop, rest a bit, and look for next low to average down. Metaltrader will only be happy to see all his predicted stock like Ezra, wilmar, noble, swiber or etc all go bankrupt." This is a post from you on 23/01/2014
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counter
Veteran |
11-Jul-2014 07:18
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I have just sold $2.1 million dollars of reits in recent days, partly due to the widely discussed rising interest rates enviroment and partly due to the buying opportunities in NOL. If NOL continues to trend downwards, I will pick up more shares. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Jul-2014 06:41
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Every singaporean is watching temasek. They have to be profitable. Even they would like to increase nol stake, they will choose at even lower price. NOL is loss making, increase her stake on it, more money has to pump in if right issue is exercise, more losses will incur. The only way for them to do so is to push down nol to rock bottom and start their plan. Like pushing down to 50 cents and announce 70cents or 90 cents to increase stake or take over nol.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
11-Jul-2014 06:35
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You are absolutely right. Nol 93.5 may be at when smrt is at 1.4 or 1.5, so it mean nol is on the way to 80 or even lower before bounce back come.
Holding power must be strong or why not just wait and see to pick at bottom? there is not too late to pick at early stage if nol start to turn over. However, currently the light is darken and darken. Those supporter keep on posted recovery and china export increase and etc. No matter how export increase, the freight rate still stay low. If nol is running the business below margin, it just imply more volume cause more losses
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sgng123
Supreme |
11-Jul-2014 03:05
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Do not underestimated NOL, when it is down it can go very low but not out due to temasek financial support but when the group completed it slot cost reduction plan the share might move in reverse direction very fast. Just need to check out NOl historical share movement u know, when it had been under water ( sub $1 range) for a consideration amount of time, it would suddenly move up very fast like a rocket taking off. High Beta stock is not dead stock do not confuse the two, it just the changes in share price is oftern very violent and very fast meaning unless u got the money to hold u cannot make money off it. Temasek can privatise ship anytime of the day after 2Q when the advantage of usingthe new ships are made more clear or they might be already in progress of a merger which is anyone guess. But the share price movement these past month very strange, we keep getting positive US trade data and Dow jones reached new height and US job data improvement. instead of moving along with the big picture, ship taking reverse course and this might be due to the release of 2Q result in Aug. Everyone is taking a hedge against bad news and if it turn out ship is doing ok in 2Q, a big short covering plan might be in progress might cause a big jump in share price movement as everyone jump in and move ship. Hand off this till 2Q, no need to lose sleep on it.
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pineapple123
Member |
11-Jul-2014 00:32
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Agree. Especially those few who always post articles/news that are SO remotely related to the stock..
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RoundRound
Elite |
11-Jul-2014 00:22
Yells: "Tikam Tikam can also" |
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Looking at all those posts here in NOL thread, I believe a lot of NOL die-hard investors have poured much of their hard-earned money or retirement fund into this counter. In the last 20 to 30 months, I have not seen this counter make any spectacular rise in its share price but is drifting lower and lower, or what I call a SLOW DEATH. Please lah, do not fall in love with any counter. If situation is not right, and it have not been right for a few years, cash out and look for better counters making good money or in growth industries counters. You will get to sleep better and will get less illness |
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Jul-2014 00:10
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PUBLISHED JULY 10, 2014
U.S. wholesale inventories rise, point to rebound in Q2 GDP PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE [WASHINGTON] U.S. wholesale inventories rose in May, reinforcing the view that economic growth should surge in the second quarter following a weak first three months of the year. The Commerce Department said on Thursday wholesale inventories increased 0.5 per cent from a month earlier. The rise was just below economists' expectations for a 0.6 per cent gain. The gains were driven by increases in inventories of metals, autos, machinery and lumber. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. The component that goes into the calculation of GDP - wholesale stocks excluding autos - increased 0.3 per cent in May. - Reuters |
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alexsmith
Member |
10-Jul-2014 22:15
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Something is boiling up. What can be caught from this message is not the amount of the transaction, ie 36$$ (which enough to buy peanuts). It' s more like an M& A will occur soon hence important subsidiries to be kept tight first. Another possibility is the division of the terminal from NOL entity. Anyone of this occurs would boost the share price. Just my 2 cents. PS: Trade with your own risk calculation. Never blame others. Assume all the responsibilities as the traded money whether it' s LOSE or WIN, it' s all yours.
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counter
Veteran |
10-Jul-2014 22:10
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Don' t be dishearten by a $0.005 drop. Don' t be dishearten even if the drop is $0.05. This trend may continue for a while, or it may not. It is anybody' s guess. The shortists will try to push the price down as much as they can, especially towards the closing. They will try to create the same pattern for as long as possible to dishearten the weak hands and it does not take a stock expert to understand that. Many of them are just doing their jobs and they can do it in a rational and sensible manner as they are emotionally detached. Try to do averaging if the price continues to trend downwards and ensure that the entry prices are not too close. One can simply learn from history to tell it is hard to go wrong this way. Managed to pick up 200 lots at $0.94 and 100 lots at $0.935 (in the matching, which can be expected through the shortists' simple strategy).
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jul-2014 22:06
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MEMBER lines of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) will levy a US$200 per FEU as general rate increase (GRI) and peak season surcharge (PSS) for cargo moving to Pacific southwest ports in California from July 1.
Wednesday, 09.Jul.2014, 18:42 (GMT) Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement levies GRI, peak season surcharge MEMBER lines of the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) will levy a US$200 per FEU as general rate increase (GRI) and peak season surcharge (PSS) for cargo moving to Pacific southwest ports in California from July 1. This follows a July 1 increase. TSA carriers applied a full $400 per FEU on July for cargo moving to the Pacific Northwest, US east and Gulf coasts, and via intermodal to inland US points. "Encouraged by the success of a July 1 revenue improvement, and by recent reassurances that cargo will continue moving as US west coast longshore labour negotiations extend past the contract deadline, container lines are moving ahead with a revenue recovery plan," said the TSA statement. "With the overall uncertainty already seen in the eastbound freight market, the central issue for shippers and carriers alike is maintaining service and schedule reliability," said TSA executive administrator Brian Conrad. "All partners in the supply chain need to be able to respond quickly and cover contingencies in the event of cargo surges or bottlenecks. And they need to know that their costs are covered in the process." TSA members are APL, "K" Line, CSCL, Maersk, CMA-CGM, MSC, Cosco, NYK, Evergreen, OOCL, Hanjin, Yang Ming, Hapag-Lloyd, Zim and Hyundai. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jul-2014 21:45
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NOL cleaning up its book ?
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jul-2014 21:44
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JOC ? International Logistics
North American freight volumes hit pre-recession high Corianne Egan, Associate Editor | Jul 09, 2014 6:12PM EDT Cass Freight Index through June 2014 Five straight months of growth have pushed North American freight shipments to a height not seen since the beginning of the recession, according to the Cass Freight Index. Cass reported its volume index rose yet again in June, coming in at 1.2, which is 2.4 percent higher than May?s index reading and 6 percent higher than June 2013. The expenditure index was 2.76, 4.6 percent higher than May?s index and 12.1 percent higher year-over-year. Although the U.S. Commerce Department reported the country?s economy shrank by 2.9 percent in the first quarter, Cass said that is not necessarily having an impact on the transportation industry. ?Sales of both new and existing homes are increasing, industrial and government construction have been up for the last several months, and manufacturing has been largely growing for close to a year,? Cass said. ?Retail sales have yet to show signs of significant growth, but they are not shrinking either, and consumer confidence levels have surpassed pre-recession levels. ?The current growth sectors in the economy depend on transportation services, so the outlook remains good for transportation.? June?s volume index was at the highest level since November 2007, just before the country?s last recession. Volumes have grown 15.8 percent since the beginning of the year. Expenditures are expected to keep rising in all transportation, Cass said. Trucking rates have been higher in each month, and rail and intermodal rates have continued to rise as well, causing transportation costs to rise. Tightening capacity and higher volumes should push expenditures up at a higher rate for the rest of the year, Cass said. Cass, a freight payment firm that handles $23 billion in transactions a year, compiles the indices from its client base of hundreds of large shippers representing consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, OEM, retail and heavy equipment. Annual freight volume per organization ranges from $1 million to more than $1 billion, Cass said. Contact Corianne Egan at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @CEgan_JOC. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Jul-2014 21:19
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Cosco Shipping Co Ltd (Coscol) has swung back to profit in the first half of 2014 even as revenue dipped.
Net profit in the six-month period ended 30 June 2014 was recorded at RMB11.44m ($1.85m) as against a loss of RMB78.02m in the previous corresponding period. Coscol?s revenue, however, fell 1.6% year-on-year to RMB3.57m. Last year, the heavy lift arm of China?s Cosco Group booked a profit of RMB31.49m, emerging from a loss of RMB66.42m in 2012. Published inAsia, Dry Cargo, Ship Operations |
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