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littleones Veteran	02-Dec-2015 15:15        littleones About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Currently, most proven oil reserves come from onshore wells, with the exception of North Sea wells. With 70% of the world covered by water, what makes you think the world's oil are from onshore well? Most of the current onshore reserve is estimated to run out in 50 years. If big oil companies don't start exploring the sea then what? Currently there is no incentive to explore in the sea because of the low oil prices. But when the push come to shove, you do not want to be caught unprepared. Oil price is held artificially low for a reason earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:57) Posted: ???? World oil reserves? under the sea? This is based on your assumption. Only discovered oil field can be considered as " oil reserves" , majority is still at land base.   littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:50) Posted: The answer is most of the world oil reserves are under the sea. You do not want to exhaust your onshore reserve before exploring your offshore reserve. That would be a terrible mistak
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earlybird14 Supreme	02-Dec-2015 14:57        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	???? World oil reserves? under the sea? This is based on your assumption. Only discovered oil field can be considered as " oil reserves" , majority is still at land base.   littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:50) Posted: The answer is most of the world oil reserves are under the sea. You do not want to exhaust your onshore reserve before exploring your offshore reserve. That would be a terrible mistake earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:43) Posted: Shale oil cost can be range from 50-120 onshore oil is 15-90 Offshore oil is 40-120 depend on the oil reserve, the bigger reserve and high content of oil, the better production cost is it. There must be reason why Brazil take decade and pump in hundred over billion dollar just to have 2-3million bpd, however US shale oil just take 4-5years to have 4-5million bpd. You shall do your own due diligent to evaluate individual capital cost to startup an oil field development. No matter how costly shale oil is, the time and scale of investment to start up shale oil field, is much lower than offshore oil field.  Your question has already pointed 1 critical word " long term" . how long are you refering to? 10 years? your statement is valid for it. But for stock market, we look for even shorter term 1-2 years. for Sembmar, the question stay on, how many quarters will sembmar make loss continually? How low Sembmar price can go, if there is a possibility that sembmar will go below 1.5 or as low as 1, why load at 1.95?
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littleones Veteran	02-Dec-2015 14:50        littleones About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The answer is most of the world oil reserves are under the sea. You do not want to exhaust your onshore reserve before exploring your offshore reserve. That would be a terrible mistake earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:43) Posted: Shale oil cost can be range from 50-120 onshore oil is 15-90 Offshore oil is 40-120 depend on the oil reserve, the bigger reserve and high content of oil, the better production cost is it. There must be reason why Brazil take decade and pump in hundred over billion dollar just to have 2-3million bpd, however US shale oil just take 4-5years to have 4-5million bpd. You shall do your own due diligent to evaluate individual capital cost to startup an oil field development. No matter how costly shale oil is, the time and scale of investment to start up shale oil field, is much lower than offshore oil field.  Your question has already pointed 1 critical word " long term" . how long are you refering to? 10 years? your statement is valid for it. But for stock market, we look for even shorter term 1-2 years. for Sembmar, the question stay on, how many quarters will sembmar make loss continually? How low Sembmar price can go, if there is a possibility that sembmar will go below 1.5 or as low as 1, why load at 1.95? littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:31) Posted: Cost of producing shale oil is US$75 per barrel versus US$15 for ME onshore oil. Cost of producing oil from the sea is about US$50 per barrel. Do your calculations. Though ME onshore oil production cost are low, can they meet the world demand over the long term? How much reserve do they have? Are they going to over produce and run down their reserve under such run down prices
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earlybird14 Supreme	02-Dec-2015 14:43        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Shale oil cost can be range from 50-120 onshore oil is 15-90 Offshore oil is 40-120 depend on the oil reserve, the bigger reserve and high content of oil, the better production cost is it. There must be reason why Brazil take decade and pump in hundred over billion dollar just to have 2-3million bpd, however US shale oil just take 4-5years to have 4-5million bpd. You shall do your own due diligent to evaluate individual capital cost to startup an oil field development. No matter how costly shale oil is, the time and scale of investment to start up shale oil field, is much lower than offshore oil field.  Your question has already pointed 1 critical word " long term" . how long are you refering to? 10 years? your statement is valid for it. But for stock market, we look for even shorter term 1-2 years. for Sembmar, the question stay on, how many quarters will sembmar make loss continually? How low Sembmar price can go, if there is a possibility that sembmar will go below 1.5 or as low as 1, why load at 1.95? littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:31) Posted: Cost of producing shale oil is US$75 per barrel versus US$15 for ME onshore oil. Cost of producing oil from the sea is about US$50 per barrel. Do your calculations. Though ME onshore oil production cost are low, can they meet the world demand over the long term? How much reserve do they have? Are they going to over produce and run down their reserve under such run down prices? ecekca      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:01) Posted: it really depend on Saudi and Iran since they are the no 1 and no 2 oil producer..
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littleones Veteran	02-Dec-2015 14:31        littleones About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cost of producing shale oil is US$75 per barrel versus US$15 for ME onshore oil. Cost of producing oil from the sea is about US$50 per barrel. Do your calculations. Though ME onshore oil production cost are low, can they meet the world demand over the long term? How much reserve do they have? Are they going to over produce and run down their reserve under such run down prices? ecekca      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 14:01) Posted: it really depend on Saudi and Iran since they are the no 1 and no 2 oil producer.. earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:57) Posted: low oil price is around 40, this is not a sustainable price, eventually it will go up. But turn to drilling rigs, I think about 40-50% drilling rigs are idle without any job now, what price can let all these rigs back to work? I think around 80 to 100. Can oil price back to 80-100 within 1 year? If really can, but when people will start to order rigs?, may be oil price can stay 80 to 100 for 1 more year. So overall, it take 2 years. Can Sembmar dong 2 years loss? may be the first year already send them to 1.3 record low.
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ecekca Elite	02-Dec-2015 14:05        ecekca About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	it hard for outsider to understand too Qanghoo      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 06:40) Posted: In this case, it' s probably destroying a longterm one-to-one business relationship that perhaps matters too.    I wld  venture further to speculate that in this case, buying a  proprietry product, perhaps customised to meet sepcific  requirements from alternative source  when the mkt turns  might not be so simple as buying off-the-shelf type products.  Still, MP wld probably have considered their options n future n figured that a bridge can always be rebuilt, perhaps with even firmer foundation, when it' d be of mutual interest to do so in future.  To draw an analogy,  behind the acrimonious bickering between Russia n Turkey probably lies the stark realisation that getting to bed together again sooner rather than later is far more important than seeking a divoce.    So, there we have it .... it' s what business n politics are all about.  ecekca      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 06:13) Posted: It could have started long time ago too. No one knows tha
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ecekca Elite	02-Dec-2015 14:02        ecekca About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yeah we know that ... littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 11:12) Posted: MP is not their only customer. Look at their order book for clue earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:57) Posted: low oil price is around 40, this is not a sustainable price, eventually it will go up. But turn to drilling rigs, I think about 40-50% drilling rigs are idle without any job now, what price can let all these rigs back to work? I think around 80 to 100. Can oil price back to 80-100 within 1 year? If really can, but when people will start to order rigs?, may be oil price can stay 80 to 100 for 1 more year. So overall, it take 2 years. Can Sembmar dong 2 years loss? may be the first year already send them to 1.3 record low.
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ecekca Elite	02-Dec-2015 14:01        ecekca About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	it really depend on Saudi and Iran since they are the no 1 and no 2 oil producer.. earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:57) Posted: low oil price is around 40, this is not a sustainable price, eventually it will go up. But turn to drilling rigs, I think about 40-50% drilling rigs are idle without any job now, what price can let all these rigs back to work? I think around 80 to 100. Can oil price back to 80-100 within 1 year? If really can, but when people will start to order rigs?, may be oil price can stay 80 to 100 for 1 more year. So overall, it take 2 years. Can Sembmar dong 2 years loss? may be the first year already send them to 1.3 record low. littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:46) Posted: Oil price will go up much sooner than most people think. What had changed to cause oil price to dip from above 100 to its current level. If you know the reason, you will know this low oil price is not sustainable
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ecekca Elite	02-Dec-2015 13:57        ecekca About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if they start to explore oil in water, don' t forget the human.... maybe the world will end.. instead as flooding might occur too...   nova900      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 12:31) Posted: Dont hope too much. Artic exploration is risky and unprofitable atm. Google Shell' s artic exploration. They recently terminated the programme. Even if oil price recover back to 100$ might take years to convince anyone to invest there. littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 12:25) Posted: Rigs will be in demand as most oil deposits are located below bodies of water. Do remember 70% of the earth is covered by water. Can you imagine what will happen when oil companies start to explore for oil in the resource rich Arctic region
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ecekca Elite	02-Dec-2015 13:56        ecekca About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	maybe even lower spore1      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 12:42) Posted: Now is the most difficult situation time r bad.$1.80 soon
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spore1 Supreme	02-Dec-2015 12:42        spore1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Now is the most difficult situation time r bad.$1.80 soon
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nova900 Member	02-Dec-2015 12:31        nova900 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dont hope too much. Artic exploration is risky and unprofitable atm. Google Shell' s artic exploration. They recently terminated the programme. Even if oil price recover back to 100$ might take years to convince anyone to invest there. littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 12:25) Posted: Rigs will be in demand as most oil deposits are located below bodies of water. Do remember 70% of the earth is covered by water. Can you imagine what will happen when oil companies start to explore for oil in the resource rich Arctic region? Qanghoo      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 11:24) Posted: But one unknown we may need to factor into the new equation going forward is the great efficiency achieved by drillers, especially in America.  Over the last yr, due to the px squeeze, the no of rigs declared surplus to requirement is unbelieveable - abt 1,000 or 70%.  Yet, they are able to squeeze out almost the same amt of oil.  In other words, necessity has forced drillers to learn to be more efficient n they are not likely to repeat the excesses of the past.  So, while demand for oil is likely to normalise overtime, rig count might not be as buoyant going forward.
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littleones Veteran	02-Dec-2015 12:25        littleones About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Rigs will be in demand as most oil deposits are located below bodies of water. Do remember 70% of the earth is covered by water. Can you imagine what will happen when oil companies start to explore for oil in the resource rich Arctic region? Qanghoo      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 11:24) Posted: But one unknown we may need to factor into the new equation going forward is the great efficiency achieved by drillers, especially in America.  Over the last yr, due to the px squeeze, the no of rigs declared surplus to requirement is unbelieveable - abt 1,000 or 70%.  Yet, they are able to squeeze out almost the same amt of oil.  In other words, necessity has forced drillers to learn to be more efficient n they are not likely to repeat the excesses of the past.  So, while demand for oil is likely to normalise overtime, rig count might not be as buoyant going forward.  earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:57) Posted: low oil price is around 40, this is not a sustainable price, eventually it will go up. But turn to drilling rigs, I think about 40-50% drilling rigs are idle without any job now, what price can let all these rigs back to work? I think around 80 to 100. Can oil price back to 80-100 within 1 year? If really can, but when people will start to order rigs?, may be oil price can stay 80 to 100 for 1 more year. So overall, it take 2 years. Can Sembmar dong 2 years loss? may be the first year already send them to 1.3 record low.
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Qanghoo Supreme	02-Dec-2015 11:24        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But one unknown we may need to factor into the new equation going forward is the great efficiency achieved by drillers, especially in America.  Over the last yr, due to the px squeeze, the no of rigs declared surplus to requirement is unbelieveable - abt 1,000 or 70%.  Yet, they are able to squeeze out almost the same amt of oil.  In other words, necessity has forced drillers to learn to be more efficient n they are not likely to repeat the excesses of the past.  So, while demand for oil is likely to normalise overtime, rig count might not be as buoyant going forward.  earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:57) Posted: low oil price is around 40, this is not a sustainable price, eventually it will go up. But turn to drilling rigs, I think about 40-50% drilling rigs are idle without any job now, what price can let all these rigs back to work? I think around 80 to 100. Can oil price back to 80-100 within 1 year? If really can, but when people will start to order rigs?, may be oil price can stay 80 to 100 for 1 more year. So overall, it take 2 years. Can Sembmar dong 2 years loss? may be the first year already send them to 1.3 record low. littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:46) Posted: Oil price will go up much sooner than most people think. What had changed to cause oil price to dip from above 100 to its current level. If you know the reason, you will know this low oil price is not sustainable
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littleones Veteran	02-Dec-2015 11:12        littleones About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	MP is not their only customer. Look at their order book for clue earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:57) Posted: low oil price is around 40, this is not a sustainable price, eventually it will go up. But turn to drilling rigs, I think about 40-50% drilling rigs are idle without any job now, what price can let all these rigs back to work? I think around 80 to 100. Can oil price back to 80-100 within 1 year? If really can, but when people will start to order rigs?, may be oil price can stay 80 to 100 for 1 more year. So overall, it take 2 years. Can Sembmar dong 2 years loss? may be the first year already send them to 1.3 record low. littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:46) Posted: Oil price will go up much sooner than most people think. What had changed to cause oil price to dip from above 100 to its current level. If you know the reason, you will know this low oil price is not sustainable
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earlybird14 Supreme	02-Dec-2015 10:57        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	low oil price is around 40, this is not a sustainable price, eventually it will go up. But turn to drilling rigs, I think about 40-50% drilling rigs are idle without any job now, what price can let all these rigs back to work? I think around 80 to 100. Can oil price back to 80-100 within 1 year? If really can, but when people will start to order rigs?, may be oil price can stay 80 to 100 for 1 more year. So overall, it take 2 years. Can Sembmar dong 2 years loss? may be the first year already send them to 1.3 record low. littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:46) Posted: Oil price will go up much sooner than most people think. What had changed to cause oil price to dip from above 100 to its current level. If you know the reason, you will know this low oil price is not sustainable
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ysh2006 Supreme	02-Dec-2015 10:53        ysh2006 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	They still have two over months to report result why they come out this warning so early ? maybe they have other bad news yet to announce before X' mas or CNY, those bosses go on leave...No body to sign the reports.. littleones      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:46) Posted: Oil price will go up much sooner than most people think. What had changed to cause oil price to dip from above 100 to its current level. If you know the reason, you will know this low oil price is not sustainable
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littleones Veteran	02-Dec-2015 10:46        littleones About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Oil price will go up much sooner than most people think. What had changed to cause oil price to dip from above 100 to its current level. If you know the reason, you will know this low oil price is not sustainable
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nyde1d1th Veteran	02-Dec-2015 10:32        nyde1d1th About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	think drop will be huge if they cant pay dividends anymore
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Qanghoo Supreme	02-Dec-2015 10:27        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DBSS' tp tumbles to 1.85 ....  maybe after release of result actual px cld be < 1, who knows.  earlybird14      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 10:20) Posted: At first, Why SM took the risk to sign contract with MP who is never owned a rigs for operation and market cap is less than a rig cost, obviously MP bought it for speculation, SM paid the price now for their poor risk management. Want to accept speculation order? The head must be big enough. Sembmar will not issue dividend anymore, NAV is just merely around $ 1.4, loss making will eat in NAV and price in for future, Sembmar price sooner or later will hit below NAV. Observers      ( Date: 02-Dec-2015 09:57) Posted: I also don' t understand why they want to burn the bridges with the world' s 2 biggest rig builders - not just Sembmarine, but probably with Kepple O& G as well since they are both controlled by the same holding company. Unless it' s because they dont yet see the light at the end of the tunnel for their industry, that their understanding of the oil market is oil prices are going to be low for much longer? Or maybe they intend to buy only Chinese rigs when the oil market recovers?
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