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earlybird14 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 13:38        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The gap of P3 and G6 will be widen and widen, not only on the network efficiency but also their financial balance sheet. The billion profit will be paid off the interest and debt loan for the delivered vessel and interest will be reduced further and increase the profit margin of the company. The hundred million loss will be increased with more debt to be loaded for paying the interest and result highest interest to be paid and worsen the lose making margin of the company. P3 just to be silent about rate hinking for 2 more years, they can at least kill 20% of competitors and share these 20% market share by acquisition from the banks or broker who own the asset of those bankrupt container shipping company. Let' s wait and see. Shipping lines, no matter container shipping, oil tanker shiping or bulk carrier shipping all are undergo the same process. In fact, Oil tanker and bulkcarrier have been at this stage for 2 years and start to see some recovery. Container shipping, may be because of deep pocket of those companies, this sector come slower but it won' t be too far. earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 13:29) Posted: The cost saving from Maersk is not only 12.1% fuel efficiency resulted from their new giant container vessel fleet but also their adjust network efficiency. This is not other container shipping company like NOL who own 2 to 3% market share can achieve. Those vested in NOL should pray hard to god that China block the P3 network. Otherwise, the date of P3 network implementation is the time NOL share price cutting half. Anyway, P3 network rejection doesn' t change the game play. Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM are still the market leader and continually leading the market with their network efficiency. earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 13:25) Posted: http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/maersk-line-books-$15bn-profit-in-2013-despite-lower-box-rates.html To me, this is just NOL management nice picture painting about their failure in their job. Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1%
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earlybird14 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 13:29        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The cost saving from Maersk is not only 12.1% fuel efficiency resulted from their new giant container vessel fleet but also their adjust network efficiency. This is not other container shipping company like NOL who own 2 to 3% market share can achieve. Those vested in NOL should pray hard to god that China block the P3 network. Otherwise, the date of P3 network implementation is the time NOL share price cutting half. Anyway, P3 network rejection doesn' t change the game play. Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM are still the market leader and continually leading the market with their network efficiency. earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 13:25) Posted: http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/maersk-line-books-$15bn-profit-in-2013-despite-lower-box-rates.html To me, this is just NOL management nice picture painting about their failure in their job. Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1% Lucky03      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 12:57) Posted: NOL reported for its liner business, for FY13 that it achieved cost savings for per FEU was 8% but a combination of 2% drop in volume plus lower freight rate knock off 8% off its revenue per FEU by 8% too. Undoubtedly, their performance was helped by the profit recognized for the sale of their HQ and the other 2 lines of business which are profitable. For Q1 FY14, it reported reduction of 6% for cost per FEU while the revenue per FEU was 6% lower due to lower freight rate but net impact was 5% partly due to 2% higher volume. The question is whether the cost reduction going forward will exceed any further drop in freight rate and if volume will decrease too. I can't recall where I found it but I believe the market expect probably another 5% or so drop in freight rate this year. The question therefore is whether the cost saving will exceed 5% and if volume will be higher. Given the better economic numbers and volume handled by ports, we should see increase in volume esp after the rebound from the severe winter season. Hopefully returning the more expensive charted ships and deploying the additional 10 new and more fuel efficient ships this FY will yield higher than 5% or even 8% cost savings.
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earlybird14 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 13:25        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/maersk-line-books-$15bn-profit-in-2013-despite-lower-box-rates.html To me, this is just NOL management nice picture painting about their failure in their job. Maersk Line made a profit of $1.5bn compared to $461m a year earlier with the improvement credited to vessel network efficiencies resulting in lower units cost and a lower bunker price. This is despite average freight rates decreasing by 7.2% to $2,674 per feu compared to $2,881 per feu in 2012. Bunker consumption was reduced by 12.1% Lucky03      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 12:57) Posted: NOL reported for its liner business, for FY13 that it achieved cost savings for per FEU was 8% but a combination of 2% drop in volume plus lower freight rate knock off 8% off its revenue per FEU by 8% too. Undoubtedly, their performance was helped by the profit recognized for the sale of their HQ and the other 2 lines of business which are profitable. For Q1 FY14, it reported reduction of 6% for cost per FEU while the revenue per FEU was 6% lower due to lower freight rate but net impact was 5% partly due to 2% higher volume. The question is whether the cost reduction going forward will exceed any further drop in freight rate and if volume will decrease too. I can't recall where I found it but I believe the market expect probably another 5% or so drop in freight rate this year. The question therefore is whether the cost saving will exceed 5% and if volume will be higher. Given the better economic numbers and volume handled by ports, we should see increase in volume esp after the rebound from the severe winter season. Hopefully returning the more expensive charted ships and deploying the additional 10 new and more fuel efficient ships this FY will yield higher than 5% or even 8% cost savings. pineapple123      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 11:30) Posted: Past few results have always seen more than expected loss..
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Lucky03 Elite	11-Jul-2014 13:00        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	JOC ? Maritime News ? Container Lines Lower ship slot costs are pulling down rates, Drewry says Greg Knowler, Senior Asia Editor | Jul 10, 2014 12:34PM EDT The unit cost advantage container carriers are gaining by operating mega-ships is having the effect of dragging down freight rates at a time when all but the top lines are struggling to remain profitable. Martin Dixon, Drewry?s director and head of research products, said freight rate development is being driven by changes in slot cost, and as slot costs fall, so do freight rates. ?The big carriers have realized that they can still remain profitable despite low freight rates due to their unit cost advantage. For carriers, this means that future profitability, and for some, survival, will depend on cost leadership,? Dixon told the JOC. Container lines lost a collective $1 billion in the last half of 2013, according to an HSBC report, and the bank expects them to lose lose another $743 million from January through June as general rate increases fall short of targets and fail to stick for long. Alphaliner executive consultant Tan Hua Joo said significant cost differentials had emerged, and some carriers are profitable at current levels with no urgency on their part to raise rates. He said the market remains oversupplied and blanking sailings and idling capacity are not sustainable capacity management tools. ?Demand and supply are still the main determinants of freight rates, and nothing has fundamentally changed.? The cost advantage of operating larger vessels was starkly illustrated in the HSBC report that found in the Asia-Europe trade, every container on a ship of under 10,000-TEU capacity would be carried at a loss. Using the Shanghai-to-Hamburg route with a round trip of 22,626 nautical miles sailed at an average head-haul speed of 18.9 knots and a backhaul average of 14.3 knots, ships of 8,000-TEU capacity would lose $50 per 20-foot container, and 6,000-TEU ships would lose $178 per box. The bank?s analysts found that the total costs per container grew significantly as the vessels diminished in capacity, with the cost per box on a 6,000-TEU ship 33 percent greater than if it were carried on an 18,000-TEU vessel. Bunker costs on a 6,000-TEU ship were an incredible 46.5 percent higher. But instead of sending profitability soaring, Dixon said the highly competitive nature of the container shipping market is converting these lower average slot costs into correspondingly lower freight rates. ?We have noticed for some time an increasing disconnect between supply-demand fundamentals and freight rates as carrier market behavior has become much more influential. This has been driven by the fight for cost leadership as carriers have sought to leverage their investment in the new generation of ultra-large container carriers to gain unit cost advantage over their peers,? he said. And there was no escape from cost-cutting, said Michel Looten, director of marine at Seabury. ?In a competitive market like this, there is no price-setting market leader, so in order to compete, you need to have the lowest costs,? he said. ?The biggest costs for lines are operating costs of the vessels, especially fuel. Unfortunately, for owners and lines, competition drives them to invest in ever more efficient, and bigger, ships, which leads to overcapacity for the market as a whole. This leads to tough financial times, and the need for more cost-cutting. ?Even if lines can?t invest in new ships, they have to find ways to cut costs until supply and demand match. This is where potential cost-savers like laying up vessels and slow-steaming come in,? Looten said. The cost savings can be substantial. Singapore?s Neptune Orient Lines has managed to save $2 billion in costs over the past 2 ½ years by focusing on costs and operational efficiencies, despite recording a $65 million net loss in the first quarter, a spokesman for the group?s container line, APL, said. David Goldberg, senior vice president of ocean freight north Asia at DHL Global Forwarding, said there were only two ways for a carrier to improve its financial position ?? cut costs or increase rates. As a forwarder, he is ?extremely concerned? on both fronts. ?Cost-cutting, including slow- and super-slow-steaming, and reduction or rationalization of services, all lead to reduced service offerings available in the market, which is not good for our customers,? he said. But at some point, Goldberg said, whatever costs can be cut will have been cut, and to continue as a viable business, the market has to allow for sustainable freight rates that would yield carriers a respectable return and encourage them to invest in service improvements. ?The industry needs to get back to its focus on quality,? Goldberg said. ?A viable ocean freight business is a major facilitator of global trade. While having a lean, cost-effective operation is the cornerstone of any business, there must also be sustainable freight rates in the market.? He said the roller-coaster of freight rates has continued since the financial crisis. Rates increased sharply and then decreased just as drastically, and DHL?s internal pricing teams and customers had to spend huge amounts of time working on the fluctuations rather than on other potentially and far more beneficial supply chain optimization programs. Unfortunately, overcapacity is here to say, Looten said, and unless there is a miraculous increase in demand, freight rates would remain low. ?Competition will also make sure the long-term trend will be for rates to go down to a level where lines can just about survive.? Stephen Ng, director of trades at Hong Kong-listed OOCL, was blunt about the container lines? predicament. ?I am pretty sure after losses become unsustainable, carriers will have no choice but to take rates up,? he said. Contact Greg Knowler at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler.
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Lucky03 Elite	11-Jul-2014 12:57        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL reported for its liner business, for FY13 that it achieved cost savings for per FEU was 8% but a combination of 2% drop in volume plus lower freight rate knock off 8% off its revenue per FEU by 8% too. Undoubtedly, their performance was helped by the profit recognized for the sale of their HQ and the other 2 lines of business which are profitable. For Q1 FY14, it reported reduction of 6% for cost per FEU while the revenue per FEU was 6% lower due to lower freight rate but net impact was 5% partly due to 2% higher volume. The question is whether the cost reduction going forward will exceed any further drop in freight rate and if volume will decrease too. I can't recall where I found it but I believe the market expect probably another 5% or so drop in freight rate this year. The question therefore is whether the cost saving will exceed 5% and if volume will be higher. Given the better economic numbers and volume handled by ports, we should see increase in volume esp after the rebound from the severe winter season. Hopefully returning the more expensive charted ships and deploying the additional 10 new and more fuel efficient ships this FY will yield higher than 5% or even 8% cost savings. pineapple123      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 11:30) Posted: Past few results have always seen more than expected loss..
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counter Veteran	11-Jul-2014 11:40        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The weather yesterday was fine. The weather today is fine. So I guess the weather tomorrow should not be too bad.
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pineapple123 Member	11-Jul-2014 11:30        pineapple123 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Past few results have always seen more than expected loss..
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counter Veteran	11-Jul-2014 11:24        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In my opinion, a reduction in loss would be good enough news.
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earlybird14 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 10:50        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Your philosophy is absolutely right. Share market is traded as per market emotion rather than what really happen on the company. All the best to you, buy at 94 or 93.5 is bettter than those buy 97 or 98 2 weeks ago. Just in my opinion, NOL will trade lower this time if they still fail to breakeven in coming quarter result, they are running short of cash soon. counter      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 10:39) Posted: " nobody can accurately predict the bottom. If the price right, just enter. drop, rest a bit, and look for next low to average down." (earlybird14)   I really like your above investment philosophy. I have been using the same philosophy and I have manged to deepen my pocket quite a fair bit with this philosophy.   earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 10:32) Posted: Seem like quite a few players here got deep pocket. 1  transaction with  few hundred lots?
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counter Veteran	11-Jul-2014 10:39        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	" nobody can accurately predict the bottom. If the price right, just enter. drop, rest a bit, and look for next low to average down." (earlybird14)   I really like your above investment philosophy. I have been using the same philosophy and I have manged to deepen my pocket quite a fair bit with this philosophy.   earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 10:32) Posted: Seem like quite a few players here got deep pocket. 1  transaction with  few hundred lots?
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earlybird14 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 10:32        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Seem like quite a few players here got deep pocket. 1  transaction with  few hundred lots?
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counter Veteran	11-Jul-2014 10:15        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	No wonder the queue was gone when I was keying in my order :)
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danger Supreme	11-Jul-2014 10:13        danger About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Alright i scooped up 50 lots at 93.5cents
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counter Veteran	11-Jul-2014 10:09        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	There are 2 possibilities again? How simple a thinking this is! Do you mean that you can' t think of more than 2 possibilities? Do you need my help to come out with more possibilities? earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 09:24) Posted: About 6000 lots are shorted in past 2 weeks. Shorting action is still continual and looking for more buyer. 2 possibilities again, 1) shortists has confidence container market will be worsen following the 16% of new container volume flooding to the container shipping market in next 2 years(3 shipping lines, dry bulk carrier, oil & gas tankers and container vessels, container vessels order books are the highest and not digested by the market yet) 2) Right issue will be coming soon in next few months, brokers are ordered to naked short NOL at higher price and their short will be covered with new shares issued by NOL, this action is very common in US Market.
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counter Veteran	11-Jul-2014 10:04        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	One simply needs to do some basic research to find out that Warren Buffet has indeed bought into the shares of loss-making companies. It is a shame that this simple effort is not put in. Anyway, you have missed the point and I think it is a deliberate attempt on your part. earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 08:59) Posted: Warren don' t buy 3 years loss making company, cheers. Your track record on Ezra, Olam, Noble and etc have consistent point which is they are profitable, may be making loss in 1 or 2 quarter but annum result is profitable. NOL is not. counter      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 07:39) Posted: Bro earlybird14, If you read the quotes of Warren Buffet, you will find that he has a somewhat similar investment philosophy. The difference is that he is consistent with this philosophy.
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spore1 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 09:57        spore1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Is $1.05 .queue to Buy more RoundRound      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 09:37) Posted: You should be right, $1.05. If really NOL should reach $41.05, our STi would be at 100,000 points now instead of around 3280 points. And many of us would because millionaires or even billionaires bobochacha      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 09:12) Posted: I think he wanna type " $1.05" instead of " 41.05" ... Typo error!
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earlybird14 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 09:57        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In order to survive, companies like PIL who doesn' t own the new giant container vessel above 10000TEU will be forced to order and worsen the container shipping market. Where is the light? The only solution is hiking the rate, however, how they are going to hike the rate when Maersk, MSC and CMA are making huge profit at current rate. 3 of them want to kick competitors out from the industry. Although P3 network is fail, they will not sit there and do nothing. This is reason why shortist are so confident to short NOL at this level. Fear will be created in the world wide listed container shipping companies and all will be shorted down like what they did on commodity stock in last  3 years. Before they leasing hand, who are holding NOL will suffer the same pain as what 3 commodity share holders in last 3 years. Why container shipping companies will be shorted even badly is because commodity stock still maintain profit or breakeven, container shipping company is making huge loss and their pocket is with big hole. NOL at 93cents are not the level Olam at 1.6 or Noble at 90. lower value will be reaching before bounce and it may last years till retailers lose out all the confidence. Good luck. earlybird14      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 09:24) Posted: About 6000 lots are shorted in past 2 weeks. Shorting action is still continual and looking for more buyer. 2 possibilities again, 1) shortists has confidence container market will be worsen following the 16% of new container volume flooding to the container shipping market in next 2 years(3 shipping lines, dry bulk carrier, oil & gas tankers and container vessels, container vessels order books are the highest and not digested by the market yet) 2) Right issue will be coming soon in next few months, brokers are ordered to naked short NOL at higher price and their short will be covered with new shares issued by NOL, this action is very common in US Market.
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RoundRound Elite	11-Jul-2014 09:37        RoundRound About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Tikam Tikam can also"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You should be right, $1.05. If really NOL should reach $41.05, our STi would be at 100,000 points now instead of around 3280 points. And many of us would because millionaires or even billionaires bobochacha      ( Date: 11-Jul-2014 09:12) Posted: I think he wanna type " $1.05" instead of " 41.05" ... Typo error!
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earlybird14 Supreme	11-Jul-2014 09:24        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	About 6000 lots are shorted in past 2 weeks. Shorting action is still continual and looking for more buyer. 2 possibilities again, 1) shortists has confidence container market will be worsen following the 16% of new container volume flooding to the container shipping market in next 2 years(3 shipping lines, dry bulk carrier, oil & gas tankers and container vessels, container vessels order books are the highest and not digested by the market yet) 2) Right issue will be coming soon in next few months, brokers are ordered to naked short NOL at higher price and their short will be covered with new shares issued by NOL, this action is very common in US Market.
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bobochacha Member	11-Jul-2014 09:12        bobochacha About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think he wanna type " $1.05" instead of " 41.05" ... Typo error!
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