Ten-year yield edges toward 5% Netflix shares surge and Tesla skids

 

 

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The S& P 500 dropped 0.8% with 10 of its 11 sectors finishing in the red. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1%, while the Dow industrials declined 0.7%.
Powell initially suggested that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates again in November, a reprieve for investors. Stocks climbed and bond yields fell. He then spooked investors once his speech resumed, shortly after an interruption by climate activists, prompting a reversal. Traders struggled to discern a clear sense of direction from his comments.
&ldquo Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the committee is proceeding carefully,&rdquo Powell said Thursday. He cited the bevy of data showing that labor-market tightness and price pressures are easing, giving the Fed room to stand pat, but said the central bank  would be willing to raise rates further if strong economic activity sparked worries of an inflation revival.
Market anxiety peaked when Powell said he didn&rsquo t see evidence that monetary policy is too tight&mdash in the way it would cause a recession&mdash and that higher interest rates will likely be required for a long time to contain inflation. That is one reason bond yields have risen in recent weeks.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached as high as 4.991% during trading, nearly hitting 5% for the first time since 2007. Weak manufacturing data from the Philadelphia area and later Powell&rsquo s comments sapped the bond selloff and boosted prices, leaving the benchmark yield at 4.987% to finish the day&mdash a fresh 16-year high. Stock investors were also gauging newly released third-quarter earnings results. shares leapt 16% after reporting it added 8.8 million net new paid subscribers, the biggest jump since early 2020, and raised prices. That was its best single-day performance since January 2021, making it the biggest gainer in the market on Thursday. Crackdowns on password sharing spurred the growth, but that has caused some analysts to question how sustainable it is.
  stock, meanwhile, went in reverse following its third-quarter results. Shares of the electric-car maker slid 9.3% after the company said it is struggling to scale production of the Cybertruck, and it lost more money than analysts expected.
&ldquo In a nutshell we would characterize last night&rsquo s conference call as a &lsquo mini disaster,&rsquo &rdquo wrote a team of Wedbush Securities analysts led by Dan Ives, referring to Elon Musk&rsquo s cautious comments on the interest-rate environment, artificial-intelligence investments and difficulties with producing Cybertrucks. Regional bank earnings filed in. Results from the likes of , , and Fifth Third&mdash many of which suffered particularly during the March banking crisis&mdash showed mounting expenses are eating at their bottom line. Still, stemming deposit losses and protecting margins better than analysts expected helped some shares rise. The finished the day down 1.1%.
Shares of rose 6.6% after beating forecasts and raising its future outlook. Private-equity giant Blackstone fell 7.9% after it reported a war chest of more than $200 billion to invest in what is currently a stagnant market.
It is still early with regards to third-quarter earnings, said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management,  but there is nothing overwhelmingly negative about the state of the economy yet. With big banks and regionals reporting this week along with many major companies, the bulk of earnings are slated for the coming two weeks.
&ldquo We&rsquo ve heard so far that the consumer is resilient, continuing to spend on leisure and travel, and the labor market remains tight in those areas,&rdquo he said. &ldquo We came into this earnings season with a low bar, and it seems like we&rsquo re about meeting those expectations so far.&rdquo
Markets have been choppy for months, said Hainlin, and he thinks they will remain that way until investors have more clarity on when, and to what extent, spending and corporate profits will suffer from the rapid rise in interest rates.
The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages jumped to 7.63%, according to a survey of lenders by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac, the highest level since 2000.
Elsewhere, international stocks slid. China&rsquo s Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.7% and the Stoxx Europe 600 lost 1.2%, led lower by real-estate and auto stocks.
Write to Eric Wallerstein at [email protected]

 

&ldquo Had it just been the oil price war without the coronavirus outbreak fears, we would all be travelling to Japan for S$1 priced tickets. But now, even with that pricing, we would be scared to go,&rdquo it was liked that in 2001

https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/2001/177/article-A001-en.xml

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/investors-urged-stay-sidelines-sti-sees-largest-single-day-drop-over-10-years

https://www.reuters.com/article/markets-singapore-stocks/singapore-hot-stocks-dbs-falls-denies-kuwaiti-exposure-talk-idUSSIN42509020090112

https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0911/how-september-11-affected-the-u.s.-stock-market.aspx

 

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held on November 1, 2023.1 This is one of the key dates that investors, economists, and policymakers mark on their calendars.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

https://www.marketwatch.com/

usdsgd 1.3733

其 实 很 多 人 只 知 道 相 克 不 好 ， 却 不 知 道 究 竟 什 么 叫 相 克 ； 其 实 ， 相 克 的 本 意 ， 最 先 是 来 自 于 五 行 相 克 的 概 念 。 五 行 中 ， 金 、 木 、 水 、 火 、 土 等 五 行 ， 具 有 相 生 、 相 克 的 关 系 。 比 如 ， 金 克 木 ， 木 克 土 ， 土 克 水 ， 水 克 火 ， 火 克 金 ， 如 此 的 反 复 循 环 相 克 。

usdsgd 1.3737

Youku is a provider of video hosting services. Max (also known as WarnerMedia Direct, formerly known as HBO Max) is a company providing a streaming platform. Netflix is a provider of an online streaming platform for movies and TV shows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9RB2jNsh18

https://mashable.com/article/netflix-password-sharing-restrictions-global

 

never mind we go elsewhere to watch in iQiyi and alibaba pictures

https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/v03-venture/share-price-history

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DBS:SP#xj4y7vzkg

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UOB:SP#xj4y7vzkg

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OCBC:SP#xj4y7vzkg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyyVu85N-7E

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1NB3KN2O-M

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2023/10/17/adidas-cuts-projected-losses-by-over-300-million-after-selling-yeezy-shoes/?sh=2d61df6bab0a

 

https://www.livemint.com/companies/company-results/nike-reports-q1-profit-of-1-45-billion-beats-estimates-11695955538454.html

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/oct/18/uk-inflation-report-price-rises-september-food-clothing-petrol-business-live

 

deflation is coming

Construction spending on factories is soaring, due in no small part to two pieces of legislation

 

 

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On Monday, the Commerce Department reported May construction spending figures, with overall spending rising a seasonally adjusted 0.9% from a month earlier. Once again, an important piece of that was spending on construction of manufacturing facilities. This was up 1% in May from April, putting it up an eye-popping 76.3% from a year earlier. In the first quarter, Commerce Department figures show that spending on manufacturing structures came to nearly 0.5% of gross domestic product&mdash the most since 1991. In the second quarter, that GDP share looks destined to be higher. Chalk it up to the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, both passed in August last year. The Chips Act includes incentives for investing in semiconductor production, while the IRA includes incentives for items such as the production of electric vehicles and using domestically produced content. Economists at Goldman Sachs note that the uptake in these incentives appear to be surpassing earlier estimates.
Part of what makes the surge in manufacturing construction so striking is that it is occurring even though sentiment among manufacturers is rather low. Also on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management said that its index of manufacturing activity slipped to 46 in June from the previous month&rsquo s 46.9. Anything under 50 represents a contraction in factory activity. This is likely a reflection of the fact that while the economy still appears to be growing, it is growing slowly, with Americans buying less of the manufactured goods they stocked up on during the pandemic. Moreover, data on manufacturing production from the Federal Reserve and elsewhere suggest readings from ISM&rsquo s survey-based measure are a bit too dour.
The extent to which all this building will make for a sustained increase in manufacturing activity won&rsquo t be known until after that capacity comes online. But for now, even as demand for manufactured goods remains in a postpandemic hangover, the investment that manufacturers are making in new capacity is a clear positive for the economy. Write to Justin Lahart at [email protected]

 

• 

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• 

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• 

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• Footage Shows Moment of Gaza Hospital Blast, Officials Say 500 Killed

   

https://edition.cnn.com/markets/premarkets

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EugpuiJFfKo

 

then we had trump and bidden to make everything in USA

https://www.ussc.edu.au/reagan-making-america-great-the-first-time

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-building-factories-census-data-chips-act-inflation-reduction-act-2023-6

 

https://www.mti.gov.sg/Newsroom/Press-Releases/2023/09/ASEAN-launches-negotiations-on-ASEAN-Digital-Economic-Framework-Agreement

 

build in us by us workers and sell us price to asean -the coming trade deals 2024

As an example, consider the Austrian 100-year bond. It has fallen 60 per cent in the last five years, down 16 per cent in just the last year. But if you have a pension fund that has the same duration, the cost of your liability also fell 60 per cent. Matching duration is a valuable hedge when rates are volatile and unpredictable.

Federal Reserve policy determines long-term interest rates

In theory, longer-term bonds &ndash say, 10 years and beyond &ndash are based on expectations of future short-term bonds. If you kept buying a series of three-month Treasury bills for a decade, it should replicate a 10-year bond.
It then follows that if people expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the future, long-term rates should be lower than short-term ones &ndash as is the case today. The belief that the Fed is serious about higher rates for longer helps explain why rates are creeping up now. Alternatively, bulls argue that longer-term rates will go back down when the Fed does start to cut in response to the inevitable recession.
But the evidence is pretty weak that the Fed&rsquo s short-term rate interference has much influence on longer-term rates. It may for a day or two around its announcement, but over time macro factors matter more because the markets are segmented. The evidence is even shaky that quantitative easing matters for long-term bonds (though the size and scope of more recent quantitative easing may be a different story).
Long-term rates are determined by factors such as supply and demand for bonds, which are a function of how much the economy values future consumption. And high debt levels, which are getting higher over time, mean more supply and possibly less demand from abroad &ndash pointing to still higher rates.
The other big factor is the term premium, or how much the market rewards speculators for taking on more duration and inflation risk. If expected inflation is higher, rates will be higher too.
Low and stable inflation is probably a big reason that rates trended down in the last few decades. Bond bulls point out that rate expectations, surveys and break-evens are still stable and relatively low.
But the term premium does not just reflect inflation expectations. It also includes an inflation risk premium &ndash that is, risks around future inflation.
It&rsquo s important to look at the range of expectations and how confident people are in their forecasts to get a sense of risk. Inflation uncertainty is still elevated, and it barely budged in the last year, suggesting a higher risk premium going forward. The uncertainty may dissipate if inflation falls to 2 per cent and stays low for another several years. But if inflation spikes again, the inflation risk will be a factor in a way it has not been for decades.

An ageing population means future bond yields will be lower

There has long been a narrative that bonds yields fall as the population ages, because older people buy more bonds and take fewer risks. Just look at Japan.
But recent work shows this relationship is not so clear, especially considering the long history of 10-year bonds across countries. Moreover, most developed countries have both large underfunded entitlements and ageing populations, which suggests they will have to issue much more debt.
Since older US households do not buy debt at the rate Japanese do, odds are that the effect of an ageing population will be an increase in rates, not a decrease.
No one knows, of course, what will happen in the bond market &ndash including me. Perhaps the decade after the financial crisis was the new normal, and the economy will revert to it. What&rsquo s more likely, however &ndash based on centuries of data and the long-forgotten truth about bonds &ndash is that the world is facing a period marked by more volatility and higher interest rates.
That means bonds will be interesting again, and maybe not so safe. BLOOMBERG

 

https://www.newstribune.com/news/2023/aug/21/fed-chief-powell-to-speak-at-economic-symposium/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq1VWTE_iDI