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YZJ Maritime
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Ausgroup - the train is moving soon
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HVRRVH
Elite |
25-Mar-2026 11:51
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Market is trying to supress the price using the current volatile macro environments. Some people are buying and sellers can sell x volume at certain price but buying back much bigger y volume at much lower price too. I wouldnt be surpised if someone here had sold at $0.7 to $0.55 range and buying back now. To be frank, overall SG market seems strong, many stocks in my portfolio and watchlist did not suffer big price drop as they are all profitable companies with net cash. Their prices did not drop to the level that I am comfortable to add. Problem with YZJM is that they are not yet tested as they are only listed on 18/11/25. Even though they are showing the market that they are profitable, based on pre spin off proportional figures, they are currently on their own with no track records yet. Some parties may see this as an opportunities to press down the price for big collections, with time frame of at least 3 years in mind. I do share the sentiment that with regard to SBB, when you hurried to get the mandate, but you don' t seem interested to conduct SBB now and it is a bit odd. Perhaps the company will step in only when there is huge selling, just like previously with YZJF, when sellers have no hesitation of selling million of shares at one go. Currently, the trade volumes are thin. Long holders just need to be patient and as shareholders, if we have any questions, we can ask the management to clarify in the upcoming AGM. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
11-Mar-2026 15:20
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Stock Code: UIBU Trading Start: 12/3/26 @ 2 pm Listing Price $0.88 Total Units: 1.106B or 1.154B depending on whether there is overallotment or not. Valuation at listing: $1.9B Let' s go! |
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HVRRVH
Elite |
09-Mar-2026 18:09
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Nothing new disclosed in the analyst briefing. In fact there is a small contradictory point, i.e., I quote: ' To support ongoing shareholder returns, YZJ Financial intends to always keep 20% of its portfolio in cash specifically earmarked for dividend payouts and potential share buyback.' . Talking about keeping 20% cash for dividend and SBB but so far, none has happen and confirmed dividend won' t happen already for FY25. Nevertheless, long term investors who has been with YZJF since day 1 can take heart that we are now investing in 2 high cash no debts comapnies i.e. YZJF and YZJM. Just take FY25 as a reset year for YZJF after first spin off from YZJS then again spinning off YZJM plus they seems very serious to cut off the burdensome DI! Gong forward, $184m invested in equities with yield of at least 4.5% would alone bring in EPS of about $0.0023 [$184000000*0.045/3480420520] and $184m is about 29% of its cash hoard. Even consider the stance of keeping 20% cash/cash equivalent [should generate 2 to 3% too], the company still has $326m for investment. This $326m should generate at least 10% ROI hopefully. So the company should generate slightly about $0.01 EPS with its $638m cash without considering DI which stand at $843m should still bring in another 2 cents at least. All in all, I think first share price target of $0.5 is achievable within 18 to 24 months. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
08-Mar-2026 17:59
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Special dividend calculation: Disposal of properties into UIB: $258.7m Reinvestment into UIB for 16.9% or 15% stake: $202.8m UIB transaction cost : $8m Boustead' s share for cost of IPO : $5.6m Net excess amount: $42.3m. Obviously Boustead won' t payout 100% excess as special dividend, they have already mentioned that part of the proceed will be use for working capital. However Boustead is already cash rich so let' s say they pay out $30m, then 30,000,000/504,723,796 = about $0.06 special dividend per share that sharehoders can expect.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
08-Mar-2026 17:27
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https://fifthperson.com/boustead-singapore-time-asset/?utm_source=newsletter& utm_medium=email& utm_campaign=weekly-newsletters& utm_content=boustead-singapore-time-asset& he=desmondsph%40gmail.com& el=email& inf_contact_key=1b5855d11972e63be98f7e1a1fa4a50a680f8914173f9191b1c0223e68310bb1 Why holding Boustead is in term of years, multiple years, and not weeks or months. |
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HVRRVH
Elite |
07-Mar-2026 12:29
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With the prospectus out, we have some figures to work on now. Boustead will either subscribe 16.9% or 15% of the total units depending whether there is extra allottment. If there is, Boustead will acquired only 15% of the total units which will stand at 204,881,000 units. If UIB initial yield forecast is met, Boustead will stand to book about 6.8 cents per unit which will bring in $13.973m. This would translate to about 2.7 cents per Boustead shares based on 504,723,796 outstanding shares. If they keep it up with their BAU and maintain or imporve the EPS and DPS, then it should add at least another 7 cents to the annual dividend which will bring its annual dividend closer to 10 cents. A floor share price of at least $2 for dividend yield of 5% is not a far fetch scenario. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
07-Mar-2026 12:11
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The only negative is the unfavourable marco environment now, with wars raging on in Middle East and elsewhere. A typical case of crsis vs opportunities. If investors stay away, the IPO may receive lukewarm response and allotment could be just fully met or even not fully taken up. In the latter scenario then IPO price should fall when open for trading. If it is oversubsribe, it may still fall but less likely especially with, should it required, DBS stabilisation buyback of 8.1% of total offering unit which is 54,634,800 units. I will apply some as usually the issuer will try to meet their own intial yield forecast, in this case 7.8% so it is likely that maiden DPU will be about 6.8 cents. If the market compress it to 5-6%, the share price could be well above $1. This could happen if the market sees the reit as stable with valuable assets. I will not apply too many units because it will be pointless if the application is redhot, as the allotment could be in the range of below 20% of the amount applied, in that case even a million units applicaiton will get only 20,000 units. If the IPO is not well received, the price may fall below IPO price then can buy from open market. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
07-Mar-2026 11:50
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SBB is welcome but there is mixed signals, in view of pre spin off mentioned of rights issue, as these 2 are in direct contrast of each other. SBB, you have excess cash to buy back shares that is below the intrinsic value. Rights issue, you have so much investment opportunities that you need more cash. So which is which? I can' t wait for AGM as I have many questions for both YZJF and YZJM. As it is, congratulations to YZJ for successfully separate YZJS from the rest, it has now indeed surge forward with shipbuilding focus businesses. Following the 1st spin off of YZJS to YZJF, YZJF was supposed to be investment focus but it faced challenges and old Ren came back to helm the company, and was instrumental in the pivot to maritime businesses and it was so successful that it led to the spin off of YZJM. So the 2 spin off have not really benefit YZJF yet with YZJS a success story and YZJM a yet to known story albeit with high potential of success. YZJF is the worse off of the 3 with the sereies of spin off corporate restructuring so far. Nonetheless, both YZJM and YZJF are cash rich with no debts and it would be prudent to adpot a wait and see attitude with regard to both F& M. I am sure both companies will face shareholders' questions in the upcoming AGMs and let' s see whether the companies can provide clarity and earning guidance so that shareholders can further assess the companies. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
06-Mar-2026 18:24
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Sure have but personally I wouldn' t. Mother price already dropping but I will just apply some IPO.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
06-Mar-2026 18:21
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Can be anything. Maybe apply 1 million will get 20,000 units, apply 10k to 19k will get 3000 units, so on and so forth. Anyway just guessing based on past experiences, if it is 20x oversubscribed should get a few thousand shares, if 30x or more oversubscribed, then should get lesser units.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
06-Mar-2026 15:42
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Like it or not, likely to trade above $1 on debut as the market will sure to compress the yield to 5-6%. Public trance 33.9m units likely to be oversubcribed by 20 - 30x. End results likely 2000 units for every 10000 units apply. I applied to try my luck.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
04-Mar-2026 13:10
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1) $290.9m provision to clean up the book 2) $683m cash idling in ' cash management' - Personally I give them 1 year to see how are they going to deploy this 3) Still have $253.7 NPL on its book without provision - Will there be further provision? 4) Total provision stand at $517.8m - How many % can be written back? Over how long time frame? 5) For point 4, 38% is the figure cited by the company that the provision will be lost, therefore it is expected that $321m can be recovered DI is still too high with book value at $843.9m. That is almost half of its current total assets. Another 40% of assets amounting to $683m is sitting idle in ' cash management' ! Only 10% is now actively generating higher return!! The management need to do something and do it quick. Their only excuse now is they just completed the spin off of YZJM but that does not remove the fact that they have not been looking at other area of investments and take action accordingly other than martime in the last 3 years plus since spun off from YZJS. A new guy Malcome is recruited whith supposedly 10+ years relevant experience. Personally I give them 1 year. I want to see idle cash gone by at least half by end of FY26. |
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HVRRVH
Elite |
03-Mar-2026 17:37
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Yes. Share price performance extremely weak since spin off. Surgical move, i.e., provision for credit losses to remove cancelleous cell did not seem appealing to investors at large. Company also seems don' t know where to put its huge cash in hands after the fail Shanshan bid. Restructuring take time and $0.25 is not a far fetch scenario. Nevertheless, huge cash and NAV per share of $0.50 provide some reassurance. The problem with current managemenet is that they have to deal with the legacy DI before moving forward. They did with the $290.9m provision, which I did not expect or else I wouldn' t have added to my holding post spin off. Resuting from the huge provision, they chose not to pay dividend and this further affect investors' appetite. Everything has been reset now, no more or big credit loss allowance is expected and dividend is also expected to restart for this FY. Investors just need to see the management put the cash piles to work soon. They have no excuse now with $290.9m credit loss allowance, no more NPL distration so if they still don' t know what to do with their huge cash [I will give them 1 year], then personally I will start reconsider my position. We should not fall in love with our stocks.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
02-Mar-2026 18:13
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Based on your logic there is no need to have any SBB mandate by any company anymore. Market not always right in pricing a security that' s why company will conduct SBB if the intrinsic value of its stocks is well above the market share price.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
02-Mar-2026 14:32
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Let' s see any SBB today. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
01-Mar-2026 15:23
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Shortists could have already bought back some if not all with prices rising from $0.57 to $0.625. However, wider market will face headwind with full scale Middle East crsis taking place now. I think YZJM should do well in the long run so price weakness may represent opportunities. It seems that YZJM can' t based on eps of $0.047 to pay 40% dividend based on their explanation that those profits were ' repatriated' to its then parent company i.e. YZJF. In providing the full FY25 figure based on its maritime assets including pre spin off, it is demonstrating the earning power of its maritime assets. In long run I think YZJM could regain $0.72 and beyond.
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HVRRVH
Elite |
01-Mar-2026 15:11
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The spin off is creating some accounting challenge for investors to understand. While YZJM recognised full year profit based on all the maritime assets, it only give dividends based on it actual earning based on its maritime assets post spin off. Meanwhile, YZJF also recognised its FY25 profit and loss based on all pre spin off assets including the maritime assets. That' s why it full year losses is only $5.2m despite huge provision. 1H25' s profit $137.7m + 2H25' s profit $148m [implied] -$290.9m provision = $5.2m. The $137.7m and $148m including profits from pre spin off maritime assets. So this is accounting ' big bath' . YZJF made use of the spin off opportunity to clean up its balance sheet by providing huge one time $290.9m provisions. Effectively, this is ' hidden' profits if in future, this amount somehow get written back. As far as YZJF' s own assets is concerned, it chalked up 1H25' s profit of $55.42m [$137.7m - $82.28m as per YZJM' s introductory spin off document indicating its 1H25' s earning] and about 48m 2H25' s profit [FY $103m-1H25 $55.42m]. It has officially stated that it would record $92.2m profit if not because of the credit loss allowance so the figure is close enough. Going forward, it shouldn' t have the need to provide any more provisions. For context, it has not provide more than $40m provision in any single financial year previously. I think YZJF can generate returns of at least 3 to 5 cents eps in FY2026 and anything higher beyond that would have to depend on its investment strategies and executions. Market may or may not whack YZJF following the results as it could have already whacked in the past 2 trading days following profit guidance. |
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HVRRVH
Elite |
28-Feb-2026 23:18
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A sudden big provision for credit losses to the tune of $290.9m! This show signs of losing control espeically with preceding year recorded a write back of $15.4m. Essentially, if we don' t consider maritime businesses/investements [which had since been carved out], YZJF has been don' t know what to do with its cash at hands since 2022. It still has high DI of $843m on its book after provided credit losses of $290.9m, if not, it DI portfolio will hit above $1b. It now has cash or eqivelants of $638m, in other words, don' t know what to do with this money. The ' guidance' is not too reassuring too, as it still intend to keep 40% debt investment in its portfolio. I vaugely recall old Ren said DI would not consist more than 30% while he was still with YZJF. The other 40% of its portfolio will focus on equities and private credit with targeted return of at least 4.5%. When all dust settled, it still want to keep 20% as cash. To top it all, no dividend! The combined entities of YZJF and YZJM last paid $0.0345 as dividend and now after spin off, the dividend is only $0.005 combined! The combined NAV per shares hardly change and I the market will whack these 2 hard for sure and let' s see whether YZJF will defence by conducting SBB. If it doesn' t know what to do with its cash, it might as well buy back as much shares as possible at the price well below its NAV of $0.50. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
28-Feb-2026 23:01
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Full year eps of SGD$0.047 but dividend only $0.005, citing payout primary consideration is based on post spoin off earnings. So about 1 month and 12 days give earn shareholder dividend of $0.005? Next year dividend maybe 11*$0.005 = $0.055? Let' s wait and see. I have not much to talk about YZJM, I think it is still positive. Same can' t be said of YZJF. | ||||
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HVRRVH
Elite |
27-Feb-2026 17:22
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Indeed IPO priced at $0.88 just like CAREIT but targeting to raise much more than CAREIT, at $1.02B. Projecting initial jaw dropping yield of 7.8% for the year ending March 2027! Retail investors can subscribe from 5/3 to 10/3.
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