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SIA
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SIA revived
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Bic_cherry
Member |
25-Nov-2020 15:06
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Hi Guru, u r indeed well versed in issues pertaining to the accounting method for CB and most of your comment, whist impressive, pertained to CB, which is insignificant by value comparison in this instance ($850M Vs $3.5B).
Unfortunately, your comment on MCB is vague and insubstantial. (I wanna hear more)
There is no doubt that issues of accounting categorisations (debt Vs equity and the weightage (proportion) etc) will apply to both but I have limited my argument to MCB to avoid confusion.
I also do not dispute the SIA choice of accounting MCB as equity as that is the default position, that if the company has insufficient cash to redeem the MCB, then payment will be in shares eventually at the predefined rate during rights issue period.
I therefore contest your statement that "MCBS have been accounted for in equity only".
Whilst I am not an accountant, I believe that my fair logic holds that if the equity has an assigned owner (owners of $3.5B MCB), then that ownership stake has to be included inside the accounts, especially in the BVPS since they contribute to the number of owners eligible for dividend pay puts. MCB holders are equally entitled as ordinary shareholders to dividend payouts, albeit in an accrued manner, to be imputed as a discount (ostensibly interest bearing also) from the conversion to SIA share price of $4.84/ SIA share.
Thus, the true (effective and operational) SIA book value per share at 30.9.2020 was actually $3.57 and not as SIA published as $5.14.
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Isolator
Supreme |
25-Nov-2020 15:03
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Long now to enjoy.... | ||||
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brchkho1
Master |
25-Nov-2020 15:00
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HK has another 86 new cases today, if the numbers continue at this rate. Bubble........ errr...... https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF%E6%8C%87%E5%A2%9E86%E5%AE%97%E7%A2%BA%E8%A8%BA-%E6%97%BA%E8%A7%92%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83%E5%A9%A6%E7%94%A2%E7%A7%91%E9%86%AB%E7%94%9F%E5%8A%89%E9%BB%83%E8%89%B2%E9%B3%B3%E6%9F%93%E7%96%AB-053943224.html |
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WiseInvestor
Elite |
25-Nov-2020 14:36
Yells: "Forex Biz Opportunity for traders!" |
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Glad that you have well understood and read the accoutning treatment applicable to MCBs and CBs of SIA. Our concern is that depending on circumstances, SIA may face a heavy dilution of existing shareholding to adjust the book value per share while to weaken heavily earning and dividend per share. While  CBs and MCBs   may be potentially converted to shares, the scenarios that would result in that happening are polar opposites, which is the reason why we believe that there should be negligible impact to MCB bondholders from this new CB issuance. We run through the various scenarios below as illustration 1) CBs:  If SIA share price increases to  above S$5.743 within next 5 years, CB holders will convert the CB into shares (then sell the share at a higher price at that time).  Otherwise, you can treat the CB as a bond and simply let it mature, in which case the equity component is de-recognised and then replaced by liability which can be settled fully by SIA' s cash at the maturity date of CBs. 2) MCBs:  If SIA share price increases, SIA is more likely to call back the MCB and refinance at a cheaper rate. Otherwise, you can treat the MCB like a callable bond. On the other hand, if SIA share price declines, SIA may decide not to call back the MCB and let it be converted to shares, resulting in a potential principal loss for the investor.
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Isolator
Supreme |
25-Nov-2020 14:35
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Can long now again..... get ready to take off again... | ||||
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brchkho1
Master |
25-Nov-2020 14:33
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Looks like it' s a " Flight to nowhere" .
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brchkho1
Master |
25-Nov-2020 14:29
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That' s landing into underground parking lot liao.
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redbull888
Veteran |
25-Nov-2020 14:28
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can short liao | ||||
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vivacious
Supreme |
25-Nov-2020 14:25
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can land below 4? :)
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brchkho1
Master |
25-Nov-2020 14:22
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Plane is landing now
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easywin
Supreme |
25-Nov-2020 14:21
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How high can SIA fly? | ||||
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brchkho1
Master |
25-Nov-2020 14:20
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Now is 4.55 liao and believed is still goinng down.....
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darkpoliticks
Member |
25-Nov-2020 13:59
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I agree. We should not be getting ahead of ourselves. But there is no denying that shorties are trying to make a quick buck.
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
25-Nov-2020 13:57
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There are several good news still pending for SG / announcement of Phase 3 start, reopening of borders and start of vaccines. Any of these - can ignite SIA. | ||||
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investor999
Elite |
25-Nov-2020 13:54
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Cannot underestimate the short sellers.
They are very fierce. How they brought SIA down from $8 to $3.20
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investor999
Elite |
25-Nov-2020 13:51
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Today volume is higher than yesterday.
Everyone on short term selling and doubling down. The direction will change |
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WhereI
Master |
25-Nov-2020 13:51
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I am truly very greatful to you wiseinvestor for your time invested to educate us on the finer points of accounting in SIA' s MCB and CB. We do well to understand better the basic accounting principles hereby explained on how to recognise and differentiate between liabilities and equity. I am convinced that SIA has not misled investors into thinking that the book value per share is higher than it actually is because it has shown how that is calculated. We may argue that SIA could have highlited the assumptions used in the calculations and warned us more explicitly of the possible decline in the future book value per share of SIA should the bonds be converted to shares. But that would be evident to savvy investors like wiseinvestor. So when trading in SIA shares at such a time as this, it makes much sense to consult others' expertise before we enter into any transactions. thank you again, wiseinvestor. I am so glad you are with us.. 
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investor999
Elite |
25-Nov-2020 13:49
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The price sold were quite high at 4.70 ++
The selling will accelerate over the next few days |
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investor999
Elite |
25-Nov-2020 13:47
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I agree. That is why I have stopped selling | ||||
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TA_Expert
Supreme |
25-Nov-2020 13:41
Yells: "The World has changed" |
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Price will shoot up more once more shortists covering back their positions. Remember that SIA was heavily shorted when the panademic started. | ||||
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