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Octavia Supreme	08-Aug-2014 12:29        Octavia About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	2Q14 net loss widened 55% to US$53.7m while revenue inched lower 1% to US$2.05b, mainly due to a 2% decrease in Liner revenue to US$1.7b on the back of a 6% volume decrease. Finance expenses ballooned to US$33m vs. last year&rsquo s US$0.6m finance income, as there was a gain from financial hedging instruments last year. Nevertheless, the group continued to make gains at the operating level, bringing 2Q14 core operating loss down to US$15m, or an improvement of 52%. As a result of the losses, net debt/ equity at the end of 1H increased to 216%, from 182% at end of 2013. In 2Q, NOL had an operating cash outflow of US$24.2m and a FCF drain of US$ 93.9m (i.e. negative FCF). Deutsche is worrying about the financial health of the company as net debt to equity escalating to 253% at end of FY14 and 301% at end of FY15. Although volumes may move up over the next few months during peak season, peaks may fail to perform accordingly. Persistent oversupply of shipping capacity will limit the pace of liner freight recovery, and competitive conditions should remain. NOL is trading ~1x P/B. Latest broker ratings: Deutsche maintains Sell with TP of $0.69 NOL maintains Sell with lower TP of $0.90 (from $0.92)
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 12:02        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro, I understand what you mean. Anyway, just be careful. However good to have big mother behind. My holding stock which earning money but big mother no behind all gonna beaten. So, trading market is hard to predict. I will just hold on what I believe in in long term and hopefully this downturn is short and market will return bullish after sept. All the best to your nol and other stock. counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 11:20) Posted: Earlybird is surely a strong contributor although he could be better.
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lifeisgood Supreme	08-Aug-2014 11:56        lifeisgood About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Need to change CEO?
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sgng123 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 11:20        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That is the problem facing investors, where is the promised cut in slot cost for deploying fuel efficent ships in 2Q and what is the operational status of fleet currently delivered. All these data critical to boost investor confidence in NOL future profitabilty but not disclosed. Temasek investing US$4B in fleet renewal programme is not for those 100+ mil cost saving in returning charters and network optimising, it more for reducing the slot cost per FEU for the long haul in transpacifc and europe trade lane. Currently all the cost saving NOL mentioned in 1H14 mainly came from returned charters and network optimisation, nothing is mentioned about the slot cost reduction....... Guess maybe a merger deal might be in the making or privatisation deal soon same as what happen to SMRT and OLAM. NOL no longer need to be listed to draw private money to expand, they could tap on temasek resource and other source of funding, having NOL listed crippled it effort to restructure itself for the long run as it consistently faced wrath by short term investors to improve it profit margin not to mention the market punishing share price if still no improvement to short term profitabilty. But anyway this is all personnal view not to be taken seriously. last thing i noticed in 2Q the average revenue per FEU did not drop and it remain flat compared YoY, basically i feel that freight rate had bottomed out and soon it would recover with global recovering , might take a few quarters. counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 07:56) Posted: If the new ships have not been deployed in Q2 for the big cut in slot cut, does it mean that the effects of the cost savings measures have not been fully realised. By the way, what exactly does it mean by a fall in volume due to strict capacity management and capacity management efforts. quote APL reported second quarter 2014 revenue of almost US$1.7 billion, a slight 2% year-on-year drop in spite of a 6% decline in volume due to strict capacity management. APL&rsquo s Intra-Asia trade shed 9% in volume against a 2% dip in freight rates amidst APL&rsquo s capacity management efforts. unquote sgng123      ( Date: 07-Aug-2014 20:54) Posted: I had also noticed that NOL management had planned 14 more charters to be returned in 2015, 14 charters returned in 1H2014 with 6 more to go in 2H14. Sad thing is the new ships never deployed in 2Q for the big cut in slot cost. Anyway more charters returned = more cost saving in 2015 by then the demand and supply situation would be stabilised seeing the recovery in global demand and better capacity ultilisation by the mega alliances. The port congestion earlier in June really hurt ship bottom line, that why noone go into container shipping business except government , unexpected losses always on the horizon and need to subsidised exporters else they lose out to competitors from other countries. Going into 3Q, off to a good start with transpacific spot rate surging 30% and EC rate hitting all time record high in SCFI, hope strong demand continue well into Aug and Sep then would see better days for ship in 2H14. would be interesting to see how market respond to ship result tomorrow though it is a friday boring trading session.
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counter Veteran	08-Aug-2014 11:20        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Earlybird is surely a strong contributor although he could be better.
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Sharemaker Member	08-Aug-2014 11:15        Sharemaker About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Earlybird is a strong contributor.  The fact NOL is not able to return to profitability is a great concern. Looking at the expense incurr in IT and non-IT is huge in comparison to the gross profit. Is this really cost control? Seem worse than last year. NOL simply need a new hardcore mgmt to restructure the business strategy. Capable CEO and a good mgmt team can steer the company well during crisis and bring it to a new height. Not anyone who simply wait for the upswing of the industry. I am vested in this share for years for a good reason Temasek is the major shareholder. Otherwise, it is quite hopeless to hold on.
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counter Veteran	08-Aug-2014 10:13        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Perhaps, the wrong idea that holders do not want to listen to your negative views rather than the way your present them have inadvertently driven you to stretch your views a little too far and too hard.
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counter Veteran	08-Aug-2014 10:10        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Bro earlybird, I do not know what gives you the idea that we do not want to listen your your negative views. Indeed,  I appreciate them. However, if you can present your negative  news in a less desperate and emotional manner, in my view, they will be more convincing. Besides, it will also reflect better on yourself. I didn' t get into NOL without knowing its problems. counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 09:13) Posted: I understand that you have been providing a one-sided view to neutralised the forummers who post positive news. In my view, this is beneficial to the forummers. However, in doing so, you may have inadvertently erred on the other side by stretching it too hard and too far. Yes, investmment is a personal decision. If I am pessimistic about a firm, I woud present my view. However, asking others to change their investment is a step too far, in my  view. earlybird14      ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 10:25) Posted: Frankly speaking, I hope I am wrong. I have no position, not short no long. May be  holders here  don' t believe. Again, I had been followed up closely with NOL since downturn 2011 and did my own research and in and out few times to earn small amount profit from NOL. The cost cutting in 2012 and 2013 disappointed me and made me realised that it is difficult to implement the plan across NOL  based on  the amount of cost cutting is not justifiable with the amount of loss they had made. I KIV NOL since last year and no trading it. But somebody keep posting positive and overoptimistic on NOL, which make me provide the other way view to KIV forummers here to judge themselve. If NOL go well, it will benefit no only the shareholders but also those working in NOL. My office is in PSA Building. Seeing the NOL building is going to renovate and change name, I am quite sad actually. Anyway, all the best to you. Result will be out this week and picture will be clearer to holders or KIVs. Let' s hope NOL can do well and survive.
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 09:58        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro, i am always negative all NOL development which you may don' t want to listen. All new container vessels are delivered on time because it is from Korea Daewood shipyard which are famous in on time delivery of standardised vessels. You can checked back the news announced by NOL how they handled the renewal programme. For those old vessels belong to shipowners, they stopped to renew the chartered contract. For those vessels belong to NOL, they sold their old vessels to shipowners and registered impairment loss but chartered these vessels with very high chartered rate till the new vessel arrival. Of course you can think due to this transition period and poor arrangement between old and new vessels, the volume is dropped. However, due to my lack of confidence in NOL management, I will think this way, NOL has same container volume capacity but the no of vessels are lesser. no of vessels is lesser mean the available slop of shipping schedule is lesser. In the past, let say NOL has 2 x 5000 TEU vessels for a  route  mean they can have 2 shipment in 1 month. However, they change to a new vessel to 10000 TEU, the shipment is reduce to once per month. Now, all shipping running in low stream(reduced speed to reduced total fuel consumption per trip), the shipment duration is longer. Lower volume may imply that NOL is unable to 100% fill their new container vessels in 1 shipments. 3 to 4 years ago, Maersk renewed some of the route with new giant container vessels also facing the same problems, their customers have to adapt the change in schedule and patiently wait for the next shipment if they missed the previous one. However, the impact to Maersk is relatively small because, they are holding 15% of market share but NOL merely about 3%. This is the main reason why Maersk and MSC want to work together and share the vessels and increase the market share to 30% to make sure their shipment schedule is more and all vessels can be filled 100% before leaving from the port to achieve the efficiency and effective of fully utilitise all the giant container vessels. I know the overoptimistic person here will say this is not going to affect the shipment of NOL since NOL main business is in US shipping due to panama canal dimension and US relatively small and shallow port. However, i would like to say don' t stupid. 14000TEU will be operated for Europe to Asia route. all those 8000TEU which was normally operating in Europe will be transfered to US and ship over there. The impact of Maersk and MSC plan is a very huge blow to all player. Even without the plan, Maersk current 15% and MSC 13% Market share, just working alone within their own company, other small container vessels cannot complete at all. I won' t say order new giant vessels is mistake. NOL have to do it. However, at the sametime NOL must understand what is the impact behind to have all these giant vessels, less schedule, how to handle it? either increase the fleet or work with others to increase the schedule. After understanding it, do you still think NOL has high chance to turn over in next 2 to 3 years. My answer to you is always no. So far, there are  no solution for NOL unless the whole shipping market boom like 2005 to 2008 period. But this is not possible at all because another 20% of new container capacity are going to fill the market in next 2 years. So why put money in NOL since so far no a valid reason for NOL to do well in next 2 years but 1.2 billon debt is unsecured. As you said, I should not advise anybody on their trading. I can say, i didn' t, i just provide the information that i know the research they i did my understanding on this industry. counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 09:21) Posted: Btw, bro earlybird, could you share your view on the following post. Somehow, I think it is a crucial factor. Thank you very much counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:13) Posted: If I had to guess the meaning as a layperson, I would say that in the process of replacing the old vessels with the new ones in the effort to improve the capacity,  it was unable to take or fulfil some orders resulting in a fall in the volume. I know this may sound simplistic but it is my best guess as a layperson. Would bros sgng123, luck03, earlybird like to clarify on this?
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Trespasserx Senior	08-Aug-2014 09:31        Trespasserx About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Actually nol didn't react that badly as first thought drop a bit only esp when today sgx is another red red day.. Guess it means the current price is about rock bottom given such performance in q2... I have sold some at 945 for those bought earlier at 94.. Break even.. Still holding some and may stock up if nol dives down..
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counter Veteran	08-Aug-2014 09:21        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Btw, bro earlybird, could you share your view on the following post. Somehow, I think it is a crucial factor. Thank you very much counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:13) Posted: If I had to guess the meaning as a layperson, I would say that in the process of replacing the old vessels with the new ones in the effort to improve the capacity,  it was unable to take or fulfil some orders resulting in a fall in the volume. I know this may sound simplistic but it is my best guess as a layperson. Would bros sgng123, luck03, earlybird like to clarify on this? counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 07:56) Posted: If the new ships have not been deployed in Q2 for the big cut in slot cut, does it mean that the effects of the cost savings measures have not been fully realised. By the way, what exactly does it mean by a fall in volume due to strict capacity management and capacity management efforts. quote APL reported second quarter 2014 revenue of almost US$1.7 billion, a slight 2% year-on-year drop in spite of a 6% decline in volume due to strict capacity management. APL&rsquo s Intra-Asia trade shed 9% in volume against a 2% dip in freight rates amidst APL&rsquo s capacity management efforts. unquote
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counter Veteran	08-Aug-2014 09:17        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is a lot of responsibility and a great sense of guilt if things do not turn out the way you think. We are human after all. This is the reason why I only present my view and do not advise others what to do.
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counter Veteran	08-Aug-2014 09:13        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I understand that you have been providing a one-sided view to neutralised the forummers who post positive news. In my view, this is beneficial to the forummers. However, in doing so, you may have inadvertently erred on the other side by stretching it too hard and too far. Yes, investmment is a personal decision. If I am pessimistic about a firm, I woud present my view. However, asking others to change their investment is a step too far, in my  view. earlybird14      ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 10:25) Posted: Frankly speaking, I hope I am wrong. I have no position, not short no long. May be  holders here  don' t believe. Again, I had been followed up closely with NOL since downturn 2011 and did my own research and in and out few times to earn small amount profit from NOL. The cost cutting in 2012 and 2013 disappointed me and made me realised that it is difficult to implement the plan across NOL  based on  the amount of cost cutting is not justifiable with the amount of loss they had made. I KIV NOL since last year and no trading it. But somebody keep posting positive and overoptimistic on NOL, which make me provide the other way view to KIV forummers here to judge themselve. If NOL go well, it will benefit no only the shareholders but also those working in NOL. My office is in PSA Building. Seeing the NOL building is going to renovate and change name, I am quite sad actually. Anyway, all the best to you. Result will be out this week and picture will be clearer to holders or KIVs. Let' s hope NOL can do well and survive.   counter      ( Date: 04-Aug-2014 10:11) Posted: Revenue is a function of price and quantity. A fall in price is problematic if the proportionate fall is greater the the proportionate increase in the quantity as this will result in a fall in revenue. However, recent data in the shipping industry have shown that the proportionate increase in the volume is greater than the proportionate decrease in the freight charge and this explains why many shipping companies are experiencing an increase in revenue. Your previous posts have virtually ignored the part on rising volume and I glad that you are finally taking it into consideration. Given the greater proportionate increase in the volume, an omission of this fact is unlikely to give interested parties a good picture of the shipping industry. Maersk is a good company. However, NOL does not need to be as good as Maersk to be profitable. Therefore, in my opinion, Maersk and for that matter, the top 3, is largely to the discussion here. The important question is whether NOL will turn profitable and therefore whether the price will rise from the current level. As an investor, this is what I am more interested in. I agree with you said that given their liability condition, NOL may have difficulty in getting a second chance to restructure. However, it may turn out to be a blessing to the shareholders as it will make privatisation likely. You can refer to a post by bro lucky03 on privatisation and restructuring. The coming quarter result is indeed a good indication of where NOL is heading. However, I do not see it as &lsquo The Judgement Day&rsquo . There is still a long road ahead.  Life is full of unforeseen contingencies. Let us don&rsquo t presume that we can predict the future.
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 09:02        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is personnel decision. But just point again your past investment. None of them are making even 1 year loss may be quarter loss. Their profit drop affect the price and some even below their NAV value like Ezra. Their situation all are much better than NOL, therefore swing up fast. NOL price is at NAV value but with huge loss for 3 years and their NAV is overvalued based on present container vessel price. All the best to you since you have made your decision. counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:58) Posted: Am I taking risk? Yes, I am. I take calculated risk. Is the risk high in my investment. No, it is not. Different people have different stomach for risk. Did I get into NOL thinking that it  would turn profitable in Q2. No, I didn' t. I hold a long term view. I still believe that NOL is a good investment given the price. I will accumulate more shares if the price falls substantially. Different people have different investment philosophy. You cannot presume that you know what suits and works an every investor. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:43) Posted: In my opinion, you should look at Korea and japan operators who break even in this quarter. I believe they didn't order as much as new giant vessels as nol but they manage to break even. Year ago, I was convinced that APL is a high cost company running in nol. We singapore are willing to change and adapt new structure to be profitable and as competitive as possible. However samething may not be happen in US. The management and staff there may still enjoy beer and their high bonus and not willing to change. So problem is not nol is APL. Very less volume are traded in nol, BB may play up and down which still give chance to earn small profit. However, putting the money in it mean taking the huge risk that tomorrow NOL may go default payment on loan or right issue, no matter which happen, with weak foundation of nol, price surely will be punished. Why taking so high risk in your investment. There may a lot of share in sgx, us hk and erg worth to invest
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counter Veteran	08-Aug-2014 08:58        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Am I taking risk? Yes, I am. I take calculated risk. Is the risk high in my investment. No, it is not. Different people have different stomach for risk. Did I get into NOL thinking that it  would turn profitable in Q2. No, I didn' t. I hold a long term view. I still believe that NOL is a good investment given the price. I will accumulate more shares if the price falls substantially. Different people have different investment philosophy. You cannot presume that you know what suits and works an every investor. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:43) Posted: In my opinion, you should look at Korea and japan operators who break even in this quarter. I believe they didn't order as much as new giant vessels as nol but they manage to break even. Year ago, I was convinced that APL is a high cost company running in nol. We singapore are willing to change and adapt new structure to be profitable and as competitive as possible. However samething may not be happen in US. The management and staff there may still enjoy beer and their high bonus and not willing to change. So problem is not nol is APL. Very less volume are traded in nol, BB may play up and down which still give chance to earn small profit. However, putting the money in it mean taking the huge risk that tomorrow NOL may go default payment on loan or right issue, no matter which happen, with weak foundation of nol, price surely will be punished. Why taking so high risk in your investment. There may a lot of share in sgx, us hk and erg worth to invest! counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:13) Posted: If I had to guess the meaning as a layperson, I would say that in the process of replacing the old vessels with the new ones in the effort to improve the capacity,  it was unable to take or fulfil some orders resulting in a fall in the volume. I know this may sound simplistic but it is my best guess as a layperson. Would bros sgng123, luck03, earlybird like to clarify on this?
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 08:48        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	U r right. Positive development in the industry. But again, the freight rate still not breaking the sin curve trend. Debt is higher too Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:25) Posted: I'm disappointed that NOL still turn in a loss but I believe I'm among the minority that expect NOL to turn profitable. There will always be a price for everything and perceived values and anticipation of what may be possible developments will have impact. As earlybird pointed out, many of my recent positive postings from reputable sources such as JOC, Seatrade Global, Seaship News, SeaNews Turkey, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, etc will not have impact to NOL's Q2 result. They are what may come. Maybe the Q2 result will hasten actions that' are overdue. Whatever, there may be knee jerk reaction and some here may short NOL. Good luck to all.
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RoundRound Elite	08-Aug-2014 08:44        RoundRound About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Tikam Tikam can also"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When a ship is in distress, what to do? Jump ship or otherwise, sink into the abyss with it
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 08:43        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In my opinion, you should look at Korea and japan operators who break even in this quarter. I believe they didn't order as much as new giant vessels as nol but they manage to break even. Year ago, I was convinced that APL is a high cost company running in nol. We singapore are willing to change and adapt new structure to be profitable and as competitive as possible. However samething may not be happen in US. The management and staff there may still enjoy beer and their high bonus and not willing to change. So problem is not nol is APL. Very less volume are traded in nol, BB may play up and down which still give chance to earn small profit. However, putting the money in it mean taking the huge risk that tomorrow NOL may go default payment on loan or right issue, no matter which happen, with weak foundation of nol, price surely will be punished. Why taking so high risk in your investment. There may a lot of share in sgx, us hk and erg worth to invest! counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 08:13) Posted: If I had to guess the meaning as a layperson, I would say that in the process of replacing the old vessels with the new ones in the effort to improve the capacity,  it was unable to take or fulfil some orders resulting in a fall in the volume. I know this may sound simplistic but it is my best guess as a layperson. Would bros sgng123, luck03, earlybird like to clarify on this? counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 07:56) Posted: If the new ships have not been deployed in Q2 for the big cut in slot cut, does it mean that the effects of the cost savings measures have not been fully realised. By the way, what exactly does it mean by a fall in volume due to strict capacity management and capacity management efforts. quote APL reported second quarter 2014 revenue of almost US$1.7 billion, a slight 2% year-on-year drop in spite of a 6% decline in volume due to strict capacity management. APL&rsquo s Intra-Asia trade shed 9% in volume against a 2% dip in freight rates amidst APL&rsquo s capacity management efforts. unquote
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Demostation Supreme	08-Aug-2014 08:38        Demostation About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	At this price 95.5 cents should say it already showing players are quite confident of the future for NOL. When market is good, it should move up .
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Aug-2014 08:25        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I'm disappointed that NOL still turn in a loss but I believe I'm among the minority that expect NOL to turn profitable. There will always be a price for everything and perceived values and anticipation of what may be possible developments will have impact. As earlybird pointed out, many of my recent positive postings from reputable sources such as JOC, Seatrade Global, Seaship News, SeaNews Turkey, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, etc will not have impact to NOL's Q2 result. They are what may come. Maybe the Q2 result will hasten actions that' are overdue. Whatever, there may be knee jerk reaction and some here may short NOL. Good luck to all.
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